Global energy shift Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security...
-
Upload
samantha-robbins -
Category
Documents
-
view
221 -
download
0
Transcript of Global energy shift Elena Telegina Director of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy Security...
Global energy shift Elena TeleginaDirector of the Institute of Geopolitics and Energy SecurityCorresponding Member of Russian Academy of SciencesDean, International Energy Business DepartmentDoctor of Economics, ProfessorRussian University of Oil and Gas
The Baltic Forum, 25-26 October 2013
Regional GDP growth, World Bank 2013
* % of change 2013 to 2012
Russia2,3 %
(-1,1%)*
USA2,0 %
-0,2%)*
Japan1,4 %
(-0,6%)*
China7,7 %
(-0,1%)*
EU-0,6%
(-0,1%)*
LatinAmerica3,3 %
(+0,3%)*
(+0,4%)*
(+0,1%)*
(-0,2%)*
(-1,0%)*
(+0,5%)*
World GDP 2013 2,2% (-0,1%)
Gas slows down but still expands its role•Global gas consumption grows at 100 bcm/year•Gas is growing faster than oil at 2,4%/year but continues to fall behind coal•Transportation emerges as a major demand accounting for 10% of gas demand growth driven by China and United States
Medium-term Oil Market Balance
Global shale gas basins, top reserve holders
World Shale Deposits
US Shale Fields
Proven resources- 24 tcm
Shale gas in US gas production, tcf per year
US oil shale production will increase to 1,9 mbd in 2016
US oil shale production
Top 10 countries with technically recoverable shale oil resources
Top 10 countries with technically recoverable shale gas resources
Rank Country Shale oil (bbl)
Rank Country Shale gas ( tcf)
1 Russia 75 1 China 1,115
2 US* 58 (48)* 2 Argentina 802
3 China 32 3 Algeria 707
4 Argentina 27 4 US* 665 (1,161)
5 Libya 26 5 Canada 573
6 Venezuela 13 6 Mexico 545
7 Mexico 13 7 Australia 437
8 Pakistan 9 8 South Africa 390
9 Canada 9 9 Russia 285
10 Indonesia 8 10 Brazil 245
World Total 345 (335) World Total 7 299 (7795)
*EIA estimates used for ranking order. API estimates in parenthesis
US shale oil breakeven prices
Shale gas basins in Europe
Shale gas reserves
Shale gasReserves2012
Production Banned
Allowed
Production possible.but under discussion
US gas prices decreasing
Finmarket.ru
$/th cm $/bl
Gas, IndonesiaGas, USA
Gazprom-EuropeBrent
prices forecast Credit Suisse
Unconventional gas in Russia83 700 tcm of CBM (coal bed methane)
Lena Basin
Irkutsk Basin
South Yakutia
Zaryan Basin
Eastern Donbass
Pechora Basin
KuzbassTungus Basin
Talnyr Basin
PWC 2013
Change in current account balance as % of GDP in alternative oil price scenarios
Production Costs, US$/bl
OIL
Conventional Oil 10-40
Secondary production 20-80
Deep sea 40-65
Arctic shelf 40-100
Heavy oil, oil sands 40-80
Oil shale 50-100
US$/thousand cmGAS
Conventional gas 20-210
Unconventional gas (shale, CBM, tight gas) 100-320
Sulphur gas 110-360
Arctic shelf 140-430
Deep sea 180-390
Costs of oil and gas production
IEA WEO
Projects in advanced stage could transform the US into the №3 LNG exporter
(after Qatar and Australia)
IEA
Thank you!