Global Energy Outlook by Carlos Pascual, Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy...
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Transcript of Global Energy Outlook by Carlos Pascual, Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy...
1
Carlos PascualSpecial Envoy and Coordinator for
International Energy AffairsBureau of Energy Resources
U.S. Department of StateNovember 22, 2013
Global Energy OutlookAtlantic Council
Energy & Economic Summit
2
Consumption
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
20130
5
10
15
20
25Oil Supply and Demand
Mill
ion
barr
els
per d
ayU.S. Oil Import Dependence
Source and Notes: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook (2012). Figures for 2012-13 are projections.
Crude, other
Crude, Onshore L480
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%Oil Imports
Volume (left axis, Mb/d)
Share of consumption (right axis, %)
BiofuelsTight Oil
Other Onshore
OffshoreAlaska
Other
2006
Impo
rts
= 60
%
2012
Impo
rts
= 40
%
3
Oil Prices continue to fluctuate around $110
Source: EIA, November 2013
Jan 03, 2011
Apr 03, 2011
Jul 03, 2011
Oct 03, 2011
Jan 03, 2012
Apr 03, 2012
Jul 03, 2012
Oct 03, 2012
Jan 03, 2013
Apr 03, 2013
Jul 03, 2013
Oct 03, 2013
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
$/ba
rrel
Brent Crude Oil Price
4
Oil Supply Disruptions Elevated Since Early 2011
Source: EIA, October 2013
Jan 2011
Mar 2011
May 2011
Jul 2011
Sep 2011
Nov 2011
Jan 2012
Mar 2012
May 2012
Jul 2012
Sep 2012
Nov 2012
Jan 2013
Mar 2013
May 2013
Jul 2013
Sep 2013
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
LibyaIraqIranNigeriaYemenSyriaSudan / S. SudanOther Non-OPEC
Mill
ion
barr
els p
er d
ay
Oil Supply Disruptions
5
2012 OPEC Pro
duction
2012 Call on O
PEC Crude
Falling O
ECD Demand
OPEC NGLs su
pply growth
Non-OPEC su
pply growth
Rising non-O
ECD Demand
2013 Call on O
PEC Crude
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
30.5
31.0
U.S.
Other
Declining need for OPEC crude in 2013
Source: EIA, August 2013
Evolution in the Market’s Need for OPEC Crude Oil
Reduce Call
Increase Call 2013 Call on
OPEC crude is 0.4 Mb/d less than the 2012 Call and 0.7 Mb/d less than 2012 OPEC Production
Mill
ion
barr
els
per d
ay
6
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900Total Non-OECDTotal OECDUnited StatesChinaIndia
Tota
l Pri
mar
y En
ergy
Con
sum
ption
(q
uadr
illio
n Bt
u)Challenge to Energy Governance
Source: EIA, IEO 2013
7
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
AlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaskaAlaska
Gas Supply and Demand
Billi
on C
ubic
Met
ers
Consumption
Shale Gas
Tight Gas
Lower 48 Offshore Conventional
Coalbed MethaneAlaska
Lower 48 Onshore Conventional
Source and Notes: EIA, AEO 2013
U.S. gas imports continue to fall
2005 Imports = 17%
2012 Imports = 7%
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
20130
20
40
60
80
100
120
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18Gas Imports
Volume (left axis, bcm)
Share of Consumption (right axis, %)
8
Japan and South Korea$15.65
UK $10.66
India $13.75
Lake Charles $3.15
Rio de Janeiro$14.65
Global Gas Markets
Bahia Blanca$15.65
World LNG Estimated November 2013 Landed and Hub Prices ($US/mmbtu)
Spain $10.90
Belgium $10.40
China $15.25
Reserves (bcm)
Mozambique 2825
Tanzania 565
Israel 407
Production (bcm)
2008 2035
Russia 662 881
Iran 130 279
Turkmenistan 71 136
Canada 175 192
United States 575 779
Norway 102 127
Australia 45 155
Qatar 78 260
Indonesia 74 119
Nigeria 32 119
Algeria 82 168
Latin America Total
148 292
Source: IEA, FERC, media and industry estimates.
Henry Hub $3.58
NBP $10.75
Altamira $16.40
9
LNG Export Capacity GrowthLNG Estimated Export Volumes
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
FIDPlanned
Expo
rt V
olum
e (B
CM)
2014: Australia: Queensland Curtis (11.7)Libya: Marsa-el-Brega (3.0)Papua New Guinea: Hides (9.0)
2015: Algeria: Gassi Touil (5.5)Australia: Gladstone (10.8), Gorgon T1 (7.2), Australia Pacific (12.42) Indonesia: Dongi Senoro (2.8)Qatar: Debottlenecking (10.8)
2017: Australia: Gorgon T3 (7.2), Icthys (11.6)Canada: Kitimat (6.9), BC LNG (2.8)Equatorial Guinea: EGLNG (6.1)Papua New Guinea: PNG (4.1)Peru: Peru LNG (4.1)USA: Freeport (18.2)
2018: Australia: Browse (16.6), Bonaparte (2.8), Shell (4.1)Indonesia: Tangguh (5.2), Abadi (3.45)Israel: Levant LNG (13.8)Mozambique: Mozambique LNG 1, 2 (13.8)USA: Sabine Pass Phase 2 (12.42), Lake Charles (22.1)
2013: Algeria: Skikda (5.5)
2016: Australia: Gorgon T2 (7.2), Prelude (5.0), Wheatstone (12.3)USA: Sabine Pass Phase 1 (12.42)
2020Australia: Gorgon T4 (7.2), Australia (15.8), Brunei (5.52), Iran LNG (13.3), Mozambique (27.6), Nigeria (46.23), Papua New Guinea (16.56), Russia (62.1), USA (146.6)Tanzania (13.8)
2011 Top Ten LNG Exporters
1. Qatar: 30%2. Malaysia: 11%3. Indonesia: 10%4. Australia: 9%5. Nigeria: 7%6. Algeria: 6%7. T&T: 6%8. Russia: 4%9. Oman: 3%10. Egypt: 3%
Country: Facility (volume in bcm)Sources: PIRA
2019: Cameroon: Cameroon LNG (4.8)Canada: Shell LNG (16.6)
10
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%LNG Pipeline
LNG Is Integrating Gas Markets
Data source: BP Statistical Review 2013
Pipeline and LNG Trade as a Share of Global Gas Consumption
Annual growth rate 2001-12:- Global gas consumption 2.8% - Global gas trade 5%- LNG trade 8.1%
11
Diverging Gas Prices, Spot Deals Lead Growing LNG Trade
Data source: EIA, PIRA
Price ($/mmbtu) LNG Imports (bcm)
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
2012 -
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350 Asia-Pacific Long-Term LNG
Europe Long-Term LNG
U.S. Long-Term LNG
Asia-Pacific Spot LNG
Europe Spot LNG
U.S. Spot LNG
Asia (average spot)
U.K. (NBP)
U.S. (Henry Hub)
The share of consumption in major markets met by LNG imports rises from 8% to 16%
12
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
China India Other Emerging Asia Japan OECD Asia, ex Japan ROW
Asia’s Role in Global Gas Consumption
1.6 tcm growth to 2035
Bcm 2010 2020 2035
OECD Asia 182 206 236 China 110 304 544 India 64 92 178 Other Asia 219 264 389 World 3,307 3,943 4,955
trillion cubic meters per annum (tcm)
Source: EIA
13
Natural Gas: Infrastructure and Policy
Sources: EIA, IEA, Industry Sources
14
China: Natural Gas Infrastructure and Policy
Sources: PetroChina, Industry Sources
Myanmar (12 bcm)
Uzbekistan (5-10 bcm)
Turkmenistan (65 bcm)
Kazakhstan (5-10 bcm) Russia (38 bcm)
Natural Gas Pipeline
Crude Oil Pipeline
Refined Product Pipeline
15
Shtokman Field Yamal Fields
Chayanda FieldsSakhalin
IslandKovykta Field
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Billi
on C
ubic
Met
ers
Russia: Natural Gas Infrastructure and Policy
Sources: RIA NOVOSTI, AEI, Gazprom, BP Statistical Review (2013)
Oil Pipelines
Gas Pipelines
Priority Gas Pipelines
Halted Gas Pipelines
Russian Gas Exports and Projected Export Capacity
Sakhalin-2 (13)Shtokman (12)Yamal LNG (20)
Vladivostok (6.8)Pechora (6)De-Kastri (6)
Yamal 1(33)
Blue Stream
(16)
Nord Stream 1 & 2(55)
Ukrainian GTS(142.5)
BelarusianGTS
(44.5)
Other(19.5)
Central AsiaCenter
(80)
Yamal 2(15)
SouthStream
(63)
Altai*(30)
Pipeline to Europe(130)
LNG – Including Re-exports
(14.8)
Pipelineto FSU
(56)
Primarily Gas Consumer
Primarily Oil Consumer
Oil & Gas Consumer
Oil & Gas Competitors
2012Exports
PipelineCapacity
LNGCapacity
16
Framework for Analysis
Infrastructure• Regasification capacity• Storage• Connecting pipelines• Transnational pipelines• Tanker availability
Market Elements• Wholesale price deregulation• Separate gas marketing from
transit (unbundling)• Third party access
• Regasification• Pipelines• Storage
• Market players• Regulatory capacity• Relax destination clauses• Market-based indexation
Risk and Finance• Transit security• Infrastructure finance and
capital markets• Storage & Pipelines• Regasification• Liquefaction
• Commodity trade and financial markets
• Contract requirements
Market Data• Natural gas demand• Natural gas production• Import volumes
• Pipeline• LNG
• Prices• Production• Import• Wholesale• Retail
Europe Gas Trade 2012-2018Ni
geria
17
Data source: Gas Infrastructure Europe and IEA Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2013
Trinidad and Tobago, others
Qatar
Norw
ay
Russia
Russ
ia
OECD Europe Gas Demand 2012: 513 bcm2018: 525 bcm
LNG Imports2012: 66 bcm2018: 81 bcm
Pipeline Imports 2012: 185 bcm2018: 195 bcm
LNG Terminals● Existing or Under Construction● ProposedGas Flows• Pipeline• LNG
18
Russia
South Stream
SCPX
TANAP
Shah DenizTAP
Aphrodite (Cyprus)
Leviathan (Israel)
Tamar (Israel)
Eurasian gas infrastructure and gas discoveries
Source: BP, South Stream, IEA, Economist, EIA
Selected natural gas fields
CountryField name
Estimated Recoverable
reserves (bcm)
Cyprus Aphrodite 196
Israel Mari-B 42
Dalit 14
Tamar 280
Leviathan 540
Tanin 33.6
Karish 50.4
Palestinian Territories
Gaza Marine 28
AzerbaijanShah Deniz 84
Romania Domino 1 42-84