Global Econ - Migration - lecture

8/9/2019 Global Econ - Migration - lecture

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Migration

Dr. Katherine Sauer

Global Economic Issues

ECON 241

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A. Quick Review:

1st wave of globalization: 10% of worlds population

migrated

reversal: anti-immigrant sentiment, distrust of

foreigners drastically reduced

immigration

2nd wave of globalization: flows of people to the

developing nations were not

restored

3rd wave of globalization: there are growing pressures

to migrate out of rural or

poor areas to urban/rich areas

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B. Why does migration happen?

1. Push Factors: negative aspects of the sending country

- poverty

- lack of jobs

- crime/civil strife/war

- political/religious persecution

- natural disasters/ environmental problems

2. Pull Factors: positive aspects in the receiving country

- higher wages /higher standard of living

- labor demand/available jobs

- political/religious freedom

Philippines Migration

Slideshow 3


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C. Current Migration Statistics: (2005)

2005 UN estimate: 3% of people live outside their country of

birth (192 million people)

The number of migrants world wide is growing about 2.9% per

year.

The number of migrants world wide would make up the 5th most

populous country.

There are 30 40 million unauthorized migrants world wide.

(15 - 20% of all migrants)- there are 7 8 million undocumented migrants in Europe

- there are 10.3 million undocumented migrants in the US

(about 500,000 arrive each year)

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There are 23.7 million internally displaced persons in 50

countries.

There are 8.4 million global refugees.

75% of all migrants are concentrated in 12% of the countries.

Global trends behind todays mobile world

- demographic trends

- economic disparities between developed and

developing nations

- globalization forces

- communication networks link all parts of the world

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Migrant Population

Geographic Area

Pop.

(million)

% of the

areas pop.

Europe and former USSR 56.1 7.7%

Asia 49.9 1.4%

NorthAmerica 40.8 12.9%

Africa 16.3 2%

LatinA

merica 5.9 1.1%Australia 5.8 18.7%

Source: International Organization for Migration http://www.iom.int/

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Countries hosting the largest number of migrants (2000)

United States 35.0 million

Russian Federation 13.0 million

Germany 7.3 million

Ukraine 6.9 million

France 6.3 millionIndia 6.3 million

Canada 5.8 million

SaudiArabia 5.3 million

Australia 4.7 million

Pakistan 4.2 million

United Kingdom 4.0 million

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Top 3 Migrant Sending Countries

Country Estimated Diaspora

China 35 million

India 20 million

Philippines 7 million

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D. Economic Effects

Possible effects in the sending country:

(+) Remittances from workers abroad are sent back home.

This is a source of income for family members who

stayed in the sending country. The increase in income

may spur the local economy to grow.

(-) If enough workers leave the country, a labor shortage

can result.

(-) Brain Drain people who are trained/educated

leave the country.

(+) People who left to become better educated or to

find work may eventually return home with better

skills. The sending country may benefit in the long run.9


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Possible effects in the receiving country:

(+ -) There is an influx of eager labor.(+) Immigrants may alleviate a labor shortage.

(-) Immigrants compete with domestic workers for

jobs.

(- +) Immigrants can be a source of cheap labor.

(+) Employers can hire more cheaply.(-) Wages of domestic workers are kept low.

(-) Immigrants are a strain on local social services.

(+) Brain Gain the receiving country gets the best

and brightest people from all over.

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Example: Economic Effects of Filipino Nurses in the US

In the 1970s, the US began to experience a shortage of nurses.- other work opportunities for women were opening up

- the long hours and low pay of nursing was a less attractive

option for many women

US hospitals were able to fill unwanted job openings with nursesfrom the Philippines.

- Filipino nurses were well-educated and spoke English.

Once employed in the US, Filipino nurses earned 20 times what

they could earn in the Philippines.

- US hospitals did not have to increase wages to attract

nurses.

- Nurses sent remittances home to support their families,

which helped to boost the local economy.11


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The Philippines, however, has lost many well-educated workers.

- There has been substantial brain drain in the health care

profession.- Philippine government spending on education has not

benefited that country directly.

If someday the workers return home, then the Philippines will

experience an influx of highly skilled health care professionals.

In the US, many domestic nurses see their salaries fall (or remain

low) because there are so many Filipino nurses willing to work for

less.

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Remittances

In 2005, remittances were estimated to exceed $233 billion.

$167 billion went to developing nations.

- each wire transfer is usually less than a couple of

hundred dollars

remittances

being sent toMexico

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Remittances are more stable and evenly distributed than foreign

investment:

- Even when other parts of the economy are doingpoorly, remittances will still flow in.

- The majority of foreign investment goes to a few

countries.

Remittances have been growing in recent years:

1. restrictions on foreign exchange have been relaxed

2. competition has decreased the fees on wire transfers

3. ID cards for foreign workers has made it easier towork abroad

4. many governments offer matching programs for

remittances used in local community projects

5. realization that remittances can help decrease

poverty, encouraged by the World Bank15


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The Economist 11/23/2006

Remittances

Slideshow

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E. Illegal Immigration

Why do you suppose that so many people choose to migrate

illegally instead of going through the appropriate process?

- The expected benefits must outweigh the costs.

Since the 1990s, illegal immigration has become an increasingly

important international issue.

The increase in illegal immigration has been fueled by:

1. push pull factors2. increased mobility of people / transportation networks

3. organized crime involvement

4. increases in incomes in some sending countries

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human smuggling = the person has consented to be transported and is

free upon arrival

human trafficking = the person may or may not have consented to be

transported and is forced to work/serve on arrival

-involves coercion, deception, and violence

Both are a relatively low risk, high profit activity for organized crime

groups when compared with smuggling of drugs or weapons.

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Human Trafficking Stats

- UN estimate: $7 billion industry (per year)

- US Dept. of State estimate: 600,000 800,000 people

are trafficked internationally each year.

70% female 50% children

- CIA report: 45,000 50,000 women and children arebrought into the US under false pretenses each year.

- UNICEF: 200,000 children are enslaved by cross-border

smuggling in West and CentralA

frica.

- Victims often end up working in agricultural, domestic,

factory, or sex industry jobs. Men end up in the 3-D

jobs: dirty, difficult, dangerous.19


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F. Borders Beyond Control

There is some migration of people between

- developed nations and developed nations

- developing nations and developing nations

Problems arise when people migrate from developing to developed

nations.1. skilled workers legally emigrating from developing

nations

2. unskilled migrants entering developed nations looking for

work

3. involuntary migration / asylum seeking

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Why are skilled workers leaving developing nations?

- lack of opportunities

How can developing nations benefit from skilled workers leaving?

- diaspora model immigrants remain tied to their country

of origin (taxes, network)

To stop illegal immigration, several alternatives have been tried:- punishing the immigrants countries of origin

- tighter border controls

- sanctions on employers

- harsher punishments for illegals

Three major factors have prevented these methods from working.

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1. civil society organizations have increased in number and in

influence

- watch for human rights violations

- vocal in the media

- help migrants

2. sanctions on employers dont work

- judges find it hard to punish firms whos only crime ishiring an illegal immigrant

3. sociology / politics of ethnic groups undercut enforcement

- illegals disappear into ethnic groups

- legal immigrants are gaining political clout

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What should governments in developed nations do?

- pursue policies that integrate migrants into their new homes

while minimizing the social costs and maximizing the

economic benefits

- education for children

- limited civic rights

- direct where resettlement happens

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G. Many nations are dealing with immigration issues.

In 2004, 10 eastern Europeancountries joined the European

Union.

- Cyprus - Estonia

- Hungary - Latvia

- Lithuania - Slovenia- Poland - Slovakia

- Czech Republic - Malta

In 2007, Bulgaria and

Romania also joined.

Western European countries have been

affected by the EU enlargement. (UK)24


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H. US Immigration Policy

US immigration policy reflects multiple goals:

- It serves to reunite families by admitting immigrants

who already have family members living in the US.

- It seeks to admit workers with specific skills and to

fill positions in occupations that are experiencing a

labor shortage.

- It attempts to provide a refuge for people who face the

risk of political, racial, or religious persecution in their

country of origin.

- It seeks to ensure diversity by providing admission to

people from countries with historically low rates of

immigration to the US.

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US Immigration Timeline

1790: process for immigrants to become US citizens established

1875: first law limiting immigration (criminals, prostitutes)

1881: Office of Immigration created

1921: QuotaAct

- annual immigration is capped at 350,000

- nationality quota instituted (to restrict immigrants fromeastern and southern Europe)

1924: National OriginsAct

- annual immigration is capped at 165,000

- nationality quotas also reduced

1927: cap is reduced to 150,000 (made permanent in 1929

70% from western Europe, 30% from eastern Europe)

1948: Displaced PersonsAct 400,000 people displaced by

WWII were allowed entry to US26


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1965: ImmigrationAct amended

- got rid of national-origins quota system

- cap of 170,000 from eastern hemisphere and 120,000 from

western hemisphere- categorical preference system established

1978: worldwide immigration cap of 290,000

1980: RefugeeAct

- refugees are handled as a class separate from immigrants- immigration cap lowered to 270,000

1986: Immigration Reform and ControlAct

- annual cap raised to 540,000

- amnesty granted to illegal aliens able to prove continuous

residence in US since January 1, 1982- introduced harsh penalties for employers of illegal aliens

1990: ImmigrationAct of 1990

- cap raised to 700,000 for 1992, 1993, 1994

- flexible cap of 675,000 27


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1996: Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant ResponsibilityAct

- addressed border enforcement

- reduced government benefits available to immigrants

- employment verification pilot program

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Briefing: the US-Mexican Border

The Economist10.4.2008

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The US Mexican border is about 2,000 miles long.

Before the early 1990s, those who wanted to cross illegally usuallyheaded for Tijuana and Juarez.

- wait for night

- scale the small fence

- run for San Diego or El Paso

1993, taller fences were built in the busy sections of CA and TX.

- assumed physical barriers would stop crossers in the cities

and geography would stop them elsewhere

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1994 to 2000: apprehensions around San Diego fell by 2/3

Immigrants started crossing in the desert.- in the 1990s, about 125 people died

- since 2000, more than 1,000 people have died

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The fence is changing the patterns of illegal immigration. Is it

reducing illegal immigration?

- Border Patrol reports catching fewer people

- surveys suggest half of all (illegal) immigrants are

apprehended on any given trip

- virtually all eventually get through

- 30% know someone who has died trying

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The slowdown in remittances is more likely due to the slowdown in

certain sectors of the economy.

- collapse of housing market means fewer jobs inconstruction and landscaping

Steve Johnston (lives near Sasabe,AZ) and has been leaving food

and water in the desert.- leave 80 gallons one day

- next day only 8 gallons are left

He reports seeing groups as large as 40 people hiking together in the

desert.

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Migration used to be circular.

- cross for seasonal work, cross home to be with family

Now it is linear.

- cross once and bring whole family

Attitudes in the border states vary.

- CA fences, smallest border with Mexico

-AZ has crossings from migrants deterred by CA and TX

fences -- AZ fence is broadly popular

- TX cool to the fence

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Global Econ - Migration - lecture

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