1Dian Fossey (1932-1985) and young mountain gorilla

A/Prof Colin D Butler

Global ecological destinies: fashioned by population, politics and denial

Foundation for the Future

7 billion dayBellevue, WA, USA. October 27-28, 2011

National Centre for Epidemiology and Population

Health

Two Parts

1. Political demography and the “Cornucopian

enchantment”

Mao, Malthus in the White House

Malthus out of the White House

2. Global ecological futures

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Hung Liang-chi (1744-1809)

Honda Toschiaki (1744-1821)

Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)

Population/resources: an old debate

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4

1960s-1970sContraceptive pill, Papal Birth Control Commission (63-66)

President LB Johnson: grain to India

Peak population growth rate (2-2.1%) (68)

Green RevolutionNorman Borlaug’s warning (70)“Limits to Growth”, Stockholm – environment

conference (72)Bucharest: “development best contraceptive” (Karan

Singh) (74)

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President Richard Nixon (1969-74)

“countries .. need to maintain real economic

growth rates of 3% just to keep their per

capita incomes from dropping. Unchecked

population growth will put them on an ever-

accelerating treadmill that will outpace any

potential economic performance"

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1980s-2011grain per capita peaks (85)

ascendancy of “neoliberalism” (excessive faith in market forces,

deregulation)

Reagan on population, demographers (especially US) change course

Larry Summers (91)

Earth Summit (92)

oil >$140/barrel (08)

Global financial and food crises, worsening climate change (08-11)

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The Cornucopian Enchantment

Simon: “the notion of something being infinite is very much a matter of how we look at it..”

“The Ultimate Resource”

“From a high point some 10-15 years ago, intellectual concern about population has steadily waned to a position where it falls

now somewhere between ocean mining and acid rain” (McNicoll and Nag, 1982)

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President Ronald Reagan

• When questioned about population growth the New York Times reported he considered the problem to have been “vastly exagerated”

(Finkle and Crane, 1985)

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1990s

1991: Larry Summers: “no...limits to the carrying capacity of earth likely to bind any time in the foreseeable future. There isn't a risk of an apocalypse due to global warming or anything else. The idea that we should put limits on growth because of some natural limit, is a profound error and one that, were it ever to prove influential, would have staggering social costs.” (quoted in George and Sabelli, 1994)

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World Population: 0-2011

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infection (plague), undernutrition,

unfavourable climateBorlaug’s warning

Le Bras: “The problem has become a bit passé”

Reagan: problem “vastly exagerated”

Summers: “no limits to carrying capacity”

12Food prices: 1990-2011 (Raw data: FAO)

oil

causation more complex:oil price + extreme weather events?

1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

50

100

150

200

250

Food Price Index Cereals Price Index

Global Hunger: dream, reality (Butler, in press, data FAO)13

NB: excludes micronutrient undernutrition

Borlaug’s warning

World scientist’s warning to humanity

World Food Summit

reality

Global ecological

futures

14Jane Goodall (b 1934)

Secretariat of the Convention onBiological Diversity (CBD)

Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 (2010)

“Combined changes in land use, exploitation of forests and marine resources, .. climate change .. projected .. to result in significant changes in the distribution and abundance of species.”

I=P*A*T (Impact = Pop’n*Affluence*Technology)

(Ehrlich and Holdren, 1971)

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PAT

“main” drivers for deteriorating mammal species (1996–2008)

16Hoffman et al, IUCN 2011

RED list index status

Global Biodiversity Outlook 3 (2010)

“Following .. Earth Summit .. other summits addressed global issues that intersect with the global sustainable development agenda .. These included small island developing states, migratory fish stocks, human rights, population and development, human settlements, women, and social development. The programmes of action and commitments emerging from these are highly relevant for sustainable development, and to the objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity p 246

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regional population expected to collapse from.. 6.5 million bats to fewer than 65,000 (99% decline)

Source: Frick et al, 2010White nose syndrome in the little brown bat

I=P*A*T*K*U*GK*U*G: knowledge, understanding, governancee

BA

C

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Photo: Ken Cassman

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The Amazon’s Vicious Cycles: Drought and Fire in the Greenhouse. Ecological and Climatic Tipping Points of the World’s Largest Tropical Rainforest.

Nepstad et al, 2007

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The Amazon’s Vicious Cycles: Drought and Fire in the Greenhouse. Ecological and Climatic Tipping Points of the World’s Largest Tropical Rainforest, and Practical preventive Measures.

Nepstad et al, 2007

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Amazonia 2030, if current trends continue

Nepstad et al, 2007

I=P*A*T*K*U*G*FK*U*G: knowledge, understanding, governancee

F= Feedback

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28Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (adapted)

I=P*A*T*K*U*G*FP*A*T: population, affluence, technology

K*U*G: knowledge, understanding, governanceF= feedback

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Science, 2006

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Field et al, 2009

Governance

also

P*A*T

Illegal fishing: northern Australia

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Millenium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios:ecosystem services improve in

part in three scenarios by 2050

Adapted from FAO: 2010 (SOWFaA) 32

World fisheries production: wild vs farmed

some used for aquaculture, some as fertiliser

year

aquaculture

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“We abuse land because we regard it as a commodity belonging to us. When we see land as a community to which we belong, we may begin to use it with love and respect.” (Aldo Leopold 1949)

Thank you

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I=P*A*T*K*U*G*F*LP*A*T: population, affluence, technologyK*U*G: knowledge, understanding, governance, feedback

L: love