Global Construction 2030 Expo EDIFICA 2017 Santiago Chile · Expo EDIFICA 2017 Santiago – Chile...
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Global Construction 2030
Expo EDIFICA 2017
Santiago – Chile
4-6 October 2017
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Graham Robinson – Global Construction Perspectives
Global Construction 2030 is the fourth in a series of
global studies of the construction and engineering industry published by
Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
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Medium Term Trends in GDP Global Regions Average annual % change
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
1,1
1,9 1,4 1,2
5,9
4,2 4,1 3,7
0,0
4,0
8,0
2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30
Developed Regions Emerging Regions
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Regional GDP Growth Average annual % change
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
0,7
1,4 1,6
3,3 3,4
8,7
4,3
5,1
1,7 2,1
1,7 2,0
1,5
6,3
3,0
1,7 1,3 1,5 1,5
2,0 2,5
5,2
3,4 3,7
1,0 1,5
1,1
1,9 2,1
4,6
3,0 3,5
0,0
4,0
8,0
12,0
2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30
Western Europe
North America
Asia Pacific (Developed)
Eastern Europe
Latin America
Asia Pacific (Emerging)
Middle East North Africa
Sub-Saharan
Africa
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GDP by Region in 2017
GDP at 2014 prices and exchange rates US$bn
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and
Oxford Economics www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Eastern Europe 7%
Latin America 7%
Asia Pacific
(Emerging) 22%
Middle East and
North Africa 4%
Sub-Saharan Africa 2% Western Europe 23%
North America 24%
Asia Pacific
(Developed) 11%
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GDP by Region in 2030 GDP at 2014 prices and exchange rates US$bn
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and
Oxford Economics www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Eastern Europe 6%
Latin America 7%
Asia Pacific
(Emerging) 31%
Middle East and
North Africa 4%
Sub-Saharan Africa 2%
Western Europe 23%
North America 24%
Asia Pacific
(Developed) 11%
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Global Construction Outlook 2030
Key Growth Drivers
www.globalconstruction2030.com
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GDP and Population Growth – 10 countries
Average annual % change
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
China Nigeria Saudi Arabia
Brazil Australia Russia UK Germany India US
5,3
1,7
6,5
1,0
1,9
0,9
2,5
1,4
2,6
3,4
0,2 0,8 1,0
0,0 0,6
-0,2
1,6
0,6
1,5
2,5
-4
0
4
8
GDP Population
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Population Structure – 10 countries
% of working population
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
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Urbanization Trends – 10 countries
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
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Rise of Middle Income Households households with incomes above US$35,000 (millions)
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
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Quality of Existing Infrastructure – 10 Countries
Global Ranking out of 137 countries
Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Index 2017/18 (published 27 September 2017)
Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics Analysis
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
10 12
27
39 47 46
74
108
30
131
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
US India China Australia Germany Saudi Arabia
Brazil Russia Nigeria UK
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Budget Deficit: Ability to Fund Infrastructure
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
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2017 Global Market: Country Split
US$10.7 trillion at 2014 prices and exchange rates
Source: Global Construction Perspectives
and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Russia 3%
Indonesia 3%
France 3%
UK 3%
Canada 3%
Germany 3%
India 4%
Japan 5%
US 12%
China 20%
Other 41%
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2030 Global Market: Country Split
US$16.6 trillion at 2014 prices and exchange rates
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and
Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Other 38%
China 26% India 7%
Germany 3%
US 12%
Japan 4%
Russia 2%
France 2%
UK 2%
Canada 2%
Australia 2%
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Contribution to Global Growth 2017-2030
US$bn at 2014 prices and exchange rates
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and
Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
Other 34%
China 34%
US 10%
Turkey 1%
India 12%
Indonesia 6%
Korea 1% Mexico 1%
Canada 1%
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Increasing Importance of Emerging Markets
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
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Construction Outlook 2030
Global Super Powers
www.globalconstruction2030.com
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China: Growth Rates for
Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
11,9
4,3 4,0 3,4
14,3
6,7 5,9 6,1
11,7
6,0
4,2 3,3
12,6
5,6 4,8 4,6
0,0
4,0
8,0
12,0
16,0
2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30
Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
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US: Growth Rates for
Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
-7,5
5,4
3,0 2,8
-1,1
4,4
2,4 2,6 3,0
0,5
2,4 2,0
-3,2
3,7 2,7 2,6
-12,0
-8,0
-4,0
0,0
4,0
8,0
2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30
Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
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India: Growth Rates for
Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
5,7 5,2
7,8
8,8
6,9
4,2
6,9 6,9
5,8
4,7
7,4 7,7
6,4
4,5
7,1 7,4
0,0
4,0
8,0
12,0
2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30
Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
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Indonesia: Growth Rates for
Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
5,7 6,0 6,0 5,9 6,0 6,9
6,5 5,6
8,8
6,0 6,5
5,8
7,3
6,3 6,4 5,7
0,0
4,0
8,0
12,0
2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30
Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
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Regional Construction Outlook 2030
Regional Growth – Latin America
www.globalconstruction2030.com
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Brazil: Growth Rates for
Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
9,6
0,0
2,9
1,8
-1,3 -0,7
3,2
1,9
5,5
-2,2
3,2
1,8
5,3
-1,1
3,1
1,8
-4,0
0,0
4,0
8,0
12,0
2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30
Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
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Mexico: Growth Rates for
Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
0,7
3,0
2,4
3,2
1,0
3,3
4,1
3,3 3,4
0,2
2,4
3,2
1,6
2,2
3,0 3,2
0,0
4,0
8,0
2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30
Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
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Colombia: Growth Rates for
Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
7,8
2,6 3,4 3,2
0,0
4,0
8,0
12,0
2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30
Total
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Argentina: Growth Rates for
Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
3,0
1,0
3,1
2,5
0,0
4,0
2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30
Total
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Chile: Growth Rates for
Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
3,0 3,2 3,1 2,8
4,4
2,4
3,1 3,5 3,6
0,2
3,2 3,5 3,7
2,2
3,1 3,3
0,0
4,0
8,0
2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30
Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total
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Peru: Growth Rates for
Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
11,3
0,0
4,4 4,0
0,0
4,0
8,0
12,0
2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30
Total
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Regional Summary 2014-2030 Average annual % change
Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
www.globalconstruction2030.com
© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics
1,5
2,7
1,5
2,1 2,1
5,4
3,7
4,3
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
Western Europe
Latin America
Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific (Developed)
North America
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East North Africa
Asia Pacific (Emerging)
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