Global Climate Change Impacts on Mason*

* Virginia campuses only (for now)

by Dann Sklarew, Ph.D.

Environmental Science and Policy, GMU

Course website: http://masoncap.wikispaces.com

Photo credit: Andrea Bruce -- The Washington Post

Whom should you trust on GCC Impacts?

• International Panel on Climate Change– http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/docume

nts/climate_report_020207.pdf

Whom should you trust on GCC?

• “Bush Administration: global warming is real and a threat to the U.S.”

– economymongabay.com May 30, 2008, based on report at http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/scientific-assessment/Scientific-AssessmentFINAL.pdf

• President Obama: “Our administration will not deny

facts.”– http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/01/oba

mas_downpayment_on_energy_a.php

• Santa Claus???

GCC Impacts on “Virginia” (MD)TEMPERATURE: • Substantial temperature increase:• Mid-Century: by about 3°F by mid-century (likely unavoidable).• Late Century: by as much 9°F, and heat waves extending

throughout most summers, if GHGs not mitigated.

PRECIPITATION: • Increased precipitation in winter and spring, summer droughts.• Decrease in winter snow volume (25% less in 2025 to 50% less in

2100) reducing spring freshet. • Rains and winds from hurricanes are likely to continue to increase

with warming sea surface T.• Increased peak flooding in urban environments.

Sources: Comprehensive Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in Maryland , Chapter 2 at http://www.mde.state.md.us/Air/climatechange/index.asp ,

as summarized at http://local-warming.blogspot.com/2008/10/maryland-climate-action-plan-impacts.html

GCC Impacts on “Virginia” (MD)HUMAN HEALTH:• Health risks due to heat stress are very likely to increase• More ground-level ozone, responsible for multiple respiratory illnesses, is formed

under high T.

FOOD, WATER AND FOREST PRODUCTS:• Longer growing season from a current 239 days to as many as 278 days by the end of

the century.• Higher CO2(g) likely to increase crop production modestly during the first half of the

century. • Later in the century, crop production is likely to be reduced due to heat stress and

summer. • Milk and poultry production would be also reduced by heat stress.• Continued trend to earlier start of honey production in the Piedmont region.• As ocean water becomes more acidic, shellfish production could be affected.• Potential salt contamination of aquifers and freshwater intakes as the boundary

between fresh and brackish water shifts with rising sea level. • Timber decline late in the century under the higher emissions scenario due to heat

stress, drought, and climate-related disturbances such as fires and storms;

Sources: Comprehensive Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in Maryland , Chapter 2 at http://www.mde.state.md.us/Air/climatechange/index.asp ,

as summarized at http://local-warming.blogspot.com/2008/10/maryland-climate-action-plan-impacts.html

GCC Impacts on “Virginia” (MD)

HABITAT:• Likely decline in forest plant & animal biodiversity; 34+ bird spp. may be

displaced.• Rapid increases in stream T, limiting habitat suitability for native fishes, others.• Sea rise by >1' by mid-century, 3' by late, if GHG emissions continue to grow.• Most tidal wetlands lost (about 200 square miles of land inundated in MD). • Higher peak flows, degraded streams and erosion from sea rise would transmit

more nutrients and sediments to the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries, contributing to water quality impairment in the estuaries.

• Higher T and stronger density stratification in the estuaries would tend to exacerbate water quality impairment, the alleviation of which is the prime restoration objective.

• In the Bay, Northern species such as soft shell clams and eelgrass are likely to be eliminated later in the century; Southern species very likely to increase.

Sources: Comprehensive Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in Maryland , Chapter 2 at http://www.mde.state.md.us/Air/climatechange/index.asp ,

as summarized at http://local-warming.blogspot.com/2008/10/maryland-climate-action-plan-impacts.html

On Land…

Sources: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/19/AR2006121901769.html ; http://www.nwf.org/sealevelrise/blackwaterNWR.cfm

And by Chesapeake Bay…(Blackwater NWR on Eastern Shore, ca. 2000-2100)

Also many indirect impacts on us …

• Examples from the room…?

Source: http://cleantechlawandbusiness.com/cleanbeta/index.php/2365/at-last-conclusive-evidence-of-global-warming

QUEUE UP GMU GHG INVENTORY…

Now what are GMU’s impacts on climate?