Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Warren G. Abrahamson Biology Department Bucknell...

Global Climate Change:

Effects on Biodiversity

Warren G. AbrahamsonBiology DepartmentBucknell University

Threat: Impacts of CO2

CO2 has increased ≈25% in 100 yrs.

Atmospheric CO2

Ice Core CO2

Global Mean Temperatures: Rising Faster with Time

100 0.07 0.02

50 0.13 0.03Period Rate

Years C/decade

United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007

Projected Patterns of Precipitation Change

United Nations IPCCApril 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/

Bluish = more precipitation to high latitudesReddish = less precipitation to most low latitudes

Winter Summer

Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity

Organisms and/or biological communities are experiencing:

1. Phenology changes2. Population declines3. More frequent & severe

disturbances4. Species shifts5. Increases of invasive species6. Impacts to agriculture/forestry



1. Phenology changes (Earlier spring activity)

Birds nesting & laying eggs earlierTrees leafing out earlierEarlier flowering of plants

(Ahola et al. 2008; Tombre et al. 2008; Husek and Adamik 2008; Both et al. 2006)(Bertin 2008; Thompson and Clark 2008; Menzel et al. 2006)

Causing a mismatch betweenPeak of food availability & food needs for nestlings

Both et al. 2006



1. Phenology changes2. Population declines

Adelie penguin populations declined by 1/3 over past 25 years (Antarctic sea ice habitat declining)

Coral reefs declining(rising seawater temperatures)

Cool-climate communities (e.g., spruce-fir aspen-birch) predicted to decline >90% in USA

Phill

ip D

ust

an

Decline of Carysfort Reef (Florida)

Art

hu

r M

orr

is

Ale

xander

Bog

oly

ub

ov

(Botkin et al. 2007; Gullison et al. 2007)

(Emmerson and Southwell 2008;

Hinke et al. 2007)

(Baker et al. 2008; Wilson et al. 2008)



1. Phenology changes2. Population declines

Tropical ecotherms narrower tolerance& live closer to physiological optimathan high-latitude species

Consequently, more vulnerable to climate thermal change

(Tewksberry et al. 2008. Putting the heat on tropical animals. Science 320: 1297-1297)

Enyalioides palpebralis



1. Phenology changes2. Population declines3. More frequent & severe disturbances

Sea level rise & enhanced stormsAlter 25-80% of USA coastal wetlandsCatastrophic impacts on low-lying countries (e.g.,

Bangladesh)

Increased incidence of fire in xeric communities

Lake Michigan Ludington Lighthouse

Nov 2008




disturbances4. Species shifts

Comma Butterfly

Shifts in SpeciesDistributions due to

Climate Change

NetherlandsNetherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

2003

12

Shift in Species Range

Southern-most population of “gigantea” host race of Eurosta solidaginis

● 1999●

2003

W.G. Abrahamson, unpublished data

Some Need It ColdShifts in SpeciesDistributions due to

Climate Change

Gall-inducing flyEurosta solidaginis

Eurosta solidaginis“gigantea” race gall

Southern-most population moved 130 miles north

X

Pygmy SkunkDistribution Shifts

with Climate Change

A Reserve to Protect Pygmy Skunk in 2000

Inadequate by 2050

Shifts in SpeciesDistributions due to

Climate Change

Hannah et al. 2007

A Reserve to Protect Species in 1910

Inadequate before 2100

Shifts in CommunityDistributions due to

Climate Change

Climate change will cause shiftsin species distributions &

will impact ecological reserves

Glacier National ParkEst. 1910

Temperate-zone climate regions will shift toward the poles: >10% of species unable to survive warmer

climatesExtinction if they can’t migrate to new localitiesHabitat fragmentation will slow or prevent

migration

Miller-Rushing and Primack 2004, Malcolm et al. 2006, Sekercioglu et al. 2008

Shifts in Distributions

“Island” constrained species have nowhere to go –

They face extirpation or extinction

Temperate-zone climate regions will shift toward the poles:

Most impacted: Limited-distribution, poor-dispersal species

Advantage to:Widely distributed, easily dispersed species

Miller-Rushing and Primack 2004, Malcolm et al. 2006, Sekercioglu et al. 2008

Shifts in Distributions

Dries Buytaert




disturbances4. Species shifts5. Increases of invasive species

Warmer conditions & elevated CO2 levels may favor invasive species & outbreaks of pest species

Invasive Species

Asian-origin Hemlock Woolly AdelgidAsian-origin Japanese Honeysuckle

♀ ovipositing

European/Asian-origin Gypsy Moth




disturbances4. Species shifts5. Increases of invasive species6. Impacts to agriculture/forestry

Climate Change Could Devastate Crops

Lobell et al. 2008. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319: 607-610.

Examples:By 2030:Southern Africa could lose >30% of its main crop, maize Southern Asia could lose >10% of regional staples, including rice, millet & maize

Production Impact (%)

Production Impact (%)

Crop Importance

Red = More importantOrange = ImportantYellow = Less important

Pennsylvania:Ag/Forestry Possible Impacts

Union of Concerned Scientists, Oct 2008

Faced with Huge Challenges:

To save biodiversity, need global action

Edward Abbey wrote…

“…love of the wilderness is more than a hunger for what is always beyond reach; it is also an expression of loyalty to the earth which bore us and sustains us, the only home we shall ever know, the only paradise we ever need – if only we had the eyes to see.”

from Desert Solitaire 1968`

Global Climate Change: Effects on Biodiversity Warren G. Abrahamson Biology Department Bucknell...

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