An initiative of the ACP Group of States funded by the European Union

Global Climate Change Alliance: Intra-ACP Programme

Training ModuleMainstreaming Climate Change

Module 4Climate related evidence and assessment

Ms Isabelle MamatySenior Expert

Climate Support Facility

Climate related evidence and assessment

Learning objective: o To understand how to raise awareness and to

proceed to screening and risk assessment processes

Expected outcomes: o Increased knowledge on raising awareness tools o Increased knowledge on screening tools o Increased knowledge on risk assessment tools

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Main entry points in the national and sector policy cycles

Policy cycle stage National level Sector level

Policy formulation National long-term visionNational policies and strategies

Sector policies and strategies

Planning Multi-year development plan Sectoral plans

Resource allocation National budgetClimate-related fund(s)

Sector budget envelopesResources from fund(s)

Programming & implementation

Sector-level development plans and budgets

Sector programming

Adapted from: Olhoff & Schaer (2010) Fig. 1, p. 10

Recognise climate risks

Include climate-related programmes/ projects (sectoral and

cross-sectoral)

Allocate funding for climate-specific

actions

Relocate funding to vulnerable or priority

sectors/ regions

Incorporate climate-related

activities

Include climate

considera-tions in project

selection criteria

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Who might be good champions?Are there already

champions?

Raising awareness and building partnerships (1)

Assessing available evidence:o using the findings of relevant studies and

demonstration/pilot projects

Engaging key actors: o identifying and mobilising key organisations involved

in development at the national and sector levelso identifying and mobilising ‘champions’

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Developing and implementing a communication and advocacy strategy in support of mainstreaming:oDefine the target audience to be informed or

influencedoDevelop policy-relevant messages and materials

based on evidence collected (e.g. policy briefs, radio programmes)

o Select and use appropriate communication channels for the various target groups (e.g. media, sector working groups)

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Raising awareness and building partnerships (2)

Tools supporting awareness raising and partnership building

Assessing evidence

Vulnerability and adaptation

assessments

Macro and meso economic analysis

Demonstration or pilot projects

Engaging key actors

Communication & advocacy strategy

National consensus on and commitment to climate-resilient and low-emission

development

Awareness raising &

partnership building

Adapted from: UNDP-UNEP (2011)

... are also useful for influencing

policies and informing planning

processes

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EuropeAid’s climate change sector scripts

•Agriculture and rural development•Ecosystems and biodiversity management•Education•Energy supply•Health•Infrastructure •Solid waste management •Trade and investment •Water supply and sanitation

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Vulnerability and adaptation assessment objectives

The objective of the vulnerability and adaptation assessment is to identify, describe and assess: o The main vulnerabilities associated with current and

future climate and climate variability. o  Existing coping strategies and adaptation responses

to these risks. o Current and future adaptation needs. o Options and measures to enhance current and future

resilience and adaptive capacity.

Source: Downing & Patwardhan (2004)8

Vulnerability and adaptation assessment

A vulnerability and adaptation assessment would typically focus on 3 units of analysis:o Places: land, water, ecosystems, ‘natural capital’ and

‘built infrastructure’o People: individuals, communities, ‘human capital’,

livelihoodso Institutions: sectors, organisations, how they relate to

each other, ‘social capital’

It should assess both current & future vulnerability to determine possible adaptation measures

Source: Downing & Patwardhan (2004)9

Steps in community vulnerability & adaptation assessment

Source: IPCC (2007c) 4th Assessment Report, WG II - Fig. 16.3 10

Mapping vulnerability

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Source: Economics of Climate

Adaptation (2009) Test case on Samoa

– Focus on risks caused by sea level rise, Fig. 03, p. 122

Elevation map of central Apia

SOURCE: Team analysis

Building

Road

Elevation

0 m

>4 m

1 m

2 m

Exhibit 3 – Highly granular geographic information has been used to segment assets according to their elevation above sea level

Approach

• Starting point was a digital map of Samoa with contour lines (2m lines in coastal areas)

• In a second step, a more granular segmentation of coastal areas was obtained by using state-of-the-art GIS software

• Finally, geo-coordinates of buildings and roads, were used to determine the asset exposure to coastal flooding risk

Macro- and meso-economic

analysis Economic analysis may be a powerful tool for

motivating policy makers to take actiono Macro level: analysis of the impact climate change may

have on the national economyo Meso level: analysis at the level of key sectors or sub-

sectors of the national economy The costs of inaction (climate-related losses) are

compared with the net benefits of taking action (avoided losses minus costs)

The analysis should also consider the distribution of losses and benefits (among social groups, regions...)

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Demonstration projects

Demonstration/pilot projects

Test what works and does not

work (relevance, effectiveness)

Support lesson drawing for

adaptive management

Mobilise communities, local/regional

authorities & other stakeholders

Help foster interest and

commitment of national

authorities & other

stakeholders

Create motivation and knowledge for replication/ scaling-

up

Source: UNDP-UNEP (2011)13

Climate risk screening : Hazard and risk

Hazard Risk

Probability of occurrence

Severity of consequences

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Climate risk screening objectives

Identifies potential risks for a programme or project by assessing, in its specific context:

A standard screening questionnaire can be developed to support this exercise

Exposure to the effects of CC

Sensitivity to such effects

Response & adaptation capacity

Maladaptation risk

OPTIONAL:Impacts on climate

(GHG emissions/ emission removals)

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Climate risk screening: key factors to consider

Location Sector Relationship of the planned intervention to

livelihoods Socio-economic conditions (current – projected) Adaptive capacity of various stakeholder groupso Including current coping mechanisms / autonomous

adaptation measures Lifetime of the considered investments/activities

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Outcomes of climate risk screening

GHG emissions or emission

removals Significant (*)

No specific action, or limited measures

Further investigation, adaptation measures

Further investigation, redesign for reduced vulnerability/enhanced

adaptive capacity, or even abandonment

No specific action

Further investigation, redesign for reduced maladaptation risk, or even

abandonment

No specific action, or limited measures

Further investigation and enhancement of mitigation potential

Vulnerability to the effects of CC

Risk of maladaptation

None or low

Medium

High

No

Yes

Insignificant

(*) In proportion to the size/scope of the intervention

Climate risk assessment objectives

Climate risk assessment (CRA) is a dedicated study aimed at:o assessing in further detail the risks identified during

climate risk screeningo identifying possible risk prevention, risk mitigation

and other adaptation measureso assessing these optionso formulating concrete recommendations with regard

to the design of the programme or project

The assessment of future climate risks should be anchored to an assessment of current risks

Strategic environmental assessment (SEA)

A study:o aimed at analysing the environmental

consequences of proposed policies/plans/programmes, as well as the main environmental opportunities, risks and constraints to be taken into account

o for the purpose of promoting more sustainable development

Ensures that environmental considerations are taken into account EARLY in the policy & planning process

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Role of SEA in supporting climate change mainstreamingWith adequate ToR, SEA can:o identify elements of the considered policy or programme

that are sensitive to or at risk from climate changeo identify elements that may result in increased vulnerability

to the effects of climate changeo assess direct and indirect GHG emissionso identify options for risk management, adaptation and

mitigationo and make recommendations on alternatives, on

institutional aspects, capacity building, etc.

For a model of ToR, see handout or EC Guidelines on the Integration of Environment & Climate Change (2009), Annex 5

Is the assessment linked to:

A specific policy, strategy, programme or project? No Vulnerability and

adaptation assessment

Yes

A specific policy or strategy?

Yes (†)

No

A specific programme?

No

Yes (†)

A specific project? Yes (†)

Strategic environmental assessment (*)

Climate risk assessment

Environmental impact assessment (*)

(*) With ToRs adapted to include climate-related considerations

(†) Climate risk screening can be applied before undertaking a more detailed assessment

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Turning words into actionTurning words into action

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Discussion

Question and answers Climate related evidence and assessment

What are the opportunities to develop a climate change related evidence and assessment in your sector or at your

level and what are the institutional and capacity needs in your organisation to

do so?

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Presentation of case studies

Presentation of vulnerability and risk assessments case studies

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Learning process exercise: Working group

Exercise: Assess impacts, vulnerability and define need for action for a given national or sector programme and/or identify climate risks and adaptation opportunities of a given programme/project

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Recap – Key messages

Mainstreaming climate change at strategic planning levels supports more integrated, effective, efficient and sustainable responseso But top-down and bottom-up approaches to adaptation are

complementary and mainstreaming is also justified at local level

Multiple tools are available to support climate change mainstreaming in policies, strategies, programmes and projects

Both ad hoc studies and assessments, and integration of climate-related considerations in feasibility / formulation studies, support this mainstreaming process

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Key references

EC (2009a) EC Cooperation: Responding to Climate Change – ‘Sector scripts’ series. European Commission, Brussels

EC (2009b) Guidelines on the Integration of Environment and Climate Change in Development Cooperation. European Commission, Brussels

UNDP-UNEP (2011) Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning: A Guide for Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative

UNEP (2005) Communicating Sustainability: How to produce effective public campaigns. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi

Adaptation Learning Mechanism knowledge-sharing platform: http://www.adaptationlearning.net/

World Bank – Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change web pages: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/economics-adaptation-climate-change-study-homepage 27

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• Thank you

• Contact: Dr. Pendo MARO, ACP Secretariat pendomaro@acp.int or +32 495 281 494

www.gcca.eu/intra-acp