Global Catastrophe Recap - Aonthoughtleadership.aon.com/documents/20200507... · Global Catastrophe...

Global Catastrophe Recap April 2020

Global Catastrophe Recap: April 2020 2

Table of Contents Executive Summary 3

United States 4

Remainder of North America (Non-US) 5

South America 5

Europe 5

Middle East 6

Africa 6

Asia 7

Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, South Pacific Islands) 8

Appendix 9

Updated 2020 Data: January-March 9

Additional Report Details 12

Contact Information 13


Executive Summary Extensive U.S. severe weather prompts multi-billion-dollar payout for insurers; ~50 people dead

Cyclone Harold tracks across the South Pacific Islands as a Category 5 storm & causes major damage

Seasonal flooding leaves more than 200 fatalities around the world

Maximum width of the deadly EF4 tornado in Mississippi on April 12; widest in state history Number of killer U.S. tornadoes in April; 5th-most in any month on record since 1950 Peak 1-minute average wind speeds of Cyclone Harold as it tracked through Vanuatu on April 6 (UTC) Average rainfall in Germany recorded in April; third-driest month of April on record (since 1881)

2.25 miles

16.5 mm

14

165 mph

Drought Earthquake EU Windstorm Flooding Severe Weather Tropical Cyclone Wildfire Winter Weather Other


United States Date Event Location Deaths

Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

04/06-04/09 Severe Weather Midwest, Plains, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic 0 165,000+ 1.9+ billion

04/10-04/14 Severe Weather Midwest, Plains, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic 38 Thousands 1.0+ billion

04/18-04/20 Severe Weather Midwest, Plains, Southeast 3 Thousands 100s of Millions

04/21-04/24 Severe Weather Plains, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic 7 Thousands 100s of Millions

04/24-04/26 Severe Weather Midwest, Plains, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic 0 10,000+ 100s of Millions

04/27-04/29 Severe Weather Midwest, Plains, Southeast 0 10,000+ 100s of Millions

An active weather pattern brought multiple days of widespread severe weather across the eastern U.S. from April 6-9, causing significant damage in more than a dozen states. No fatalities were reported. Most damage was directly attributable to large hail – including stones larger than the size of baseballs – and straight-line winds which affected parts of Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Tennessee. Total economic losses were estimated at nearly USD2.0 billion, with roughly three-quarters of this cost being insured.

A prolific severe weather outbreak swept across parts of the southern and eastern United States from April 10-14, killing at least 38 people and injuring hundreds of others. The outbreak prompted a minimum of 138 confirmed tornado touchdowns from Texas to Maryland in addition to very large hail, damaging straight-line winds, and torrential rains that prompted flash flooding in the Tennessee Valley. At least 15 tornadoes were rated EF3 (12) or EF4 (3). Among the hardest-hit areas came in Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina following deadly tornadoes, large hail, and non-tornadic winds topping 100 mph (160 kph). Gusty synoptic winds later led to damage into the Northeast. Total economic and insured losses were expected to each surpass USD1 billion.

Severe thunderstorms prompted tornado touchdowns, large hail, and straight-line winds to areas from Texas to the Carolinas from April 18-20. At least three people were killed. The storms brought further damage to areas affected by a major tornado outbreak just days prior. An EF4 twister was confirmed in southern Mississippi; while other tornadoes were cited in Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. Total economic and insured losses were each expected to reach into the hundreds of millions (USD).

More severe weather again swept across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast from April 21-24, killing at least seven people and injuring dozens of others. The event prompted damaging convective storms, more than 40 confirmed tornadoes, and flash flooding. Total combined economic losses from these events were expected to minimally reach into the hundreds of millions (USD). Most wind and hail-related damage will be insured.

Widespread severe weather brought further storm damage throughout the Southern U.S. from April 24-26 as more tornado touchdowns, large hail, and straight-line winds were recorded. Parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and the Carolinas were hardest-hit as many residential and commercial properties, plus automobiles, were damaged. Total economic and insured losses were expected to reach into the hundreds of millions (USD).

Another notable severe convective storm outbreak erupted from April 27-29 across central and southern sections of the country. Most damage was attributed to large hail and straight-line winds in portions of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana. Multiple tornado touchdowns and heavy rainfall was also cited. Total aggregate economic and insured losses from the two events were each expected to reach into the hundreds of millions (USD).


Remainder of North America (Non-US) Date Event Location Deaths

Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

04/26-04/30 Flooding Canada 1 1,230+ Millions

Rising temperatures and subsequent ice jamming resulted in notable flooding in Alberta, Canada in late April. Water levels on the Athabasca and Clearwater Rivers rose between 4.5 and 6.0 meters (approximately 15 to 20 feet) at Fort McMurray. At least 1,230 structures were impacted, and 12,936 people evacuated. Total economic and insured losses were expected to reach into the millions (USD).

South America Date Event Location Deaths Structures/

Claims Economic Loss

(USD)

There were no significant natural disasters in South America in the month of April.

Europe Date Event Location Deaths

Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

04/01 Flooding Spain 0 2,000+ 15+ million

04/04-04/06 Flooding Greece 0 Hundreds Millions

04/15 Winter Weather Austria 0 N/A 30+ million

04/17 Severe Weather France 0 500+ Millions

A spell of heavy rain on April 1 caused notable regional flooding in Castellon Province of Eastern Spain. The event resulted in estimated 2,000 insurance claims and further agricultural and infrastructural damage.

A low-pressure system in the eastern Mediterranean affected parts of Greece on April 4-6, causing locally strong thunderstorms with high winds and heavy rainfall. Among the worst-affected areas were the Central Greece and Thessaly regions, in addition to Eastern Macedonia and Crete. Overall impact was not expected to be significant.

Notable influx of cold air affected several Central European countries in mid-April, with minimum temperatures reached in the morning of April 15. Estimates suggested by the Austrian Hail Insurance noted 8,000 hectares (19,768 acres) of orchards affected thus far in 2020, with collective economic loss at around EUR50 million (USD54 million).

Strong thunderstorms affected parts of France on April 17. Viticulture damage was reported due to hail from Dordogne and Gironde in the southwest, while localized flooding affected parts of Somme and Pas-de-Calais in the northern part of the country. Overall impact was expected to be in the millions EUR.


Middle East Date Event Location Deaths

Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

02/24-04/30 Flooding Iran 23 10,000+ 1.2+ billion*

04/15-04/30 Flooding Yemen 14 Hundreds Unknown *Free market conversion rate; Unofficial local exchange (USD325 million)

Notable flooding in multiple Iranian provinces continued through mid-April, after widespread flood-related damage were experienced in March. Nearly 20 provinces in central and eastern parts of the country were particularly affected. At least 23 fatalities were reported since the floods began in late February. A report by Kerman Province government officials cited economic damage at IRR50 trillion (USD1.2 billion) alone. An official global free market conversion rate was used. Unofficial currency conversions in Iran put the cost at USD325 million.

Significant flooding impacted several governorates in Western Yemen in the second half of April. On April 21, Aden hit particularly hard with widespread damage reported. There were at least 14 fatalities, while early reports indicated hundreds of structures damaged or destroyed. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimated that as much as 150,000 people, including internally displaced, may have been affected in the country.

Africa Date Event Location Deaths Structures/


(USD) 04/13-04/19 Flooding Burundi 0 6,000+ Millions

04/16-04/17 Flooding Democratic Republic of the Congo 52 18,500+ Millions

04/17-04/25 Flooding Rwanda 16 750+ Unknown

04/18 Flooding Angola 24 2,000+ Millions

04/18-04/21 Flooding Kenya 43 7,000+ Millions

04/20-04/21 Flooding Djibouti 8 Thousands Millions

04/20-04/28 Flooding Somalia 13 Hundreds Unknown

Notable flooding impacted Burundi, particularly the Bujumbura Rural, Cibitoke and Bubanza Provinces on April 13-19. Initial reports suggested that up to 6,000 homes flooded.

Torrential rains on April 16-17 caused notable flooding and loss of life in several provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The worst situation was reported from Uvira in South Kivu Province on the coast of Lake Tanganyika, where 52 people were killed and at least 80 were injured. Reports from the area suggest up to 18,500 homes were damaged or destroyed.

Heavy rains affected Rwanda on April 17-25, triggering localized flooding and landslides. Among the worst affected were Gicumbi, Gatsibo and Rulindo districts. At least 16 people were killed.

Urban flash flooding hit the agglomeration of the Angolan capital Luanda on April 18, with municipalities Kilamba Kiaxi and Talatona among the worst affected. Local civil protection officials confirmed up to 2,000 homes flooded, while the number of dead or missing was 26.

Torrential rain caused landslides and flooding in parts of Western Kenya. Elgeyo Marakwet and West Pokot Counties were affected. The worst incident occurred in Kipchumwa and Chesegon settlements, where landslides killed at least four people and rendered at least 24 missing. Local officials noted 4,000 displaced.


Significant floods affected Djibouti, particularly its capital city in the night from April 20-21, during which half of the annual climatological rainfall fell in the region. Widespread flooding followed, and at least eight people were killed in the event. Initial analyses suggested thousands of flooded structures.

Notable seasonal rainfall in Southwestern Somalia and the Ethiopian Highlands led to increased flood risk in Shabelle and Juba River Basins in Somalia. Additionally, flooding in Qardho caused at least 13 fatalities.

Asia Date Event Location Deaths

Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

04/04-04/05 Flooding Indonesia 3 Hundreds Unknown

04/09-04/16 Flooding Indonesia 0 7,500+ Unknown

04/10-04/12 Flooding Vietnam 0 716+ 1.7+ million

04/20-04/28 Flooding Indonesia 3 2,500+ Millions

04/22-04/27 Flooding Vietnam 3 6,000+ Millions

04/27 Severe Weather Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan 1 5,000+ Millions

04/30 Flooding Indonesia 0 22,000+ Millions

Torrential rains triggered flooding and landslides in 3 provinces of Indonesia - South Sulawesi, East Kalimantan and West Sumatra on April 4-5. Indonesian National Board for Disaster Management (BNPB) reported at least 3 fatalities.

Heavy rains affected Lamongan Regency of East Java, Indonesia from April 9-16, resulting in flash flooding in several districts. According to the local disaster authorities and news agencies, around 7,500 homes were flooded, and at least 25,000 people were displaced from several districts of the Regency.

Torrential rains coupled with thunderstorms, tornadoes, and hail occurred in Vietnam on April 10-12, causing multiple injuries and disruptions in several provinces. According to the Standing Office of the Central Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control, more than 716 houses were damaged or destroyed in Son La, Lao Cai, and Lai Chau provinces. Total economic damage was minimally estimated at VND40 billion (USD1.71 million).

Episodes of heavy rains triggered regional flash flooding in several parts of Indonesia during April 20-28. BNPB noted flood-related damage in Central Kalimantan, West Java, Banten, Bengkulu, and East Kalimantan Provinces. At least 2,000 homes were flooded on April 28 in Aceh Province.

Strong thunderstorms affected the northern and central provinces of Vietnam (Ha Giang, Son La, Yen Bai, Lao Cai, and Quang Binh) on April 22-27. These events have led to considerable flash flooding and property damage. At least 3 people were killed, while more than 13 were injured. Over 6,000 houses suffered severe damage in the affected provinces; more than 1,250 houses were damaged in Ha Giang Province alone. Total economic losses were estimated into the millions (USD).

Unusually strong winds, associated with passage of an extratropical cyclone and its frontal system, caused damage and gas supply disruption in parts of Uzbekistan and neighboring Turkmenistan on April 27. Bukhara, Navoi, Samarkand and Kashkadarya regions were the most affected. One person died and 30 were injured.

Heavy rains resulted in severe flooding in the Bandung Regency of Indonesia on April 30. Local Disaster Management Office confirmed nearly 22,000 inundated homes, along with 96 places of worship, and 46 schools. The worst affected districts were Dayeuhkolot, Baleendah and Bojongsoang.


Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, South Pacific Islands) Date Event Location Deaths

Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

04/04-04/07 Flooding Papua New Guinea 0 1,000+ Millions

04/05-04/11 Cyclone Harold Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga 30 10,000+ 100s of Millions

04/10 Flooding Papua New Guinea 10 Unknown Negligible

04/19 Severe Weather Australia 0 Thousands Millions

Torrential rains prompted flash flooding in Papua New Guinea’s Gulf, Morobe, and Eastern Highlands provinces during the first week of April. The worst damage was noted in the Nupaha area of North Goroka in Eastern Highlands after the Zokozoi River overflowed its banks and damaged or destroyed more than 500 homes. Additional flooding in the Lae region of Morobe Province left more than 1,000 people displaced. Total economic losses were likely in the low-digit millions (USD).

Tropical Cyclone Harold tracked through several Pacific nations in early April, with devastating impact in Vanuatu. The storm particularly affected the largest island (Espiritu Santo), and later impacted Fiji and Tonga on April 5-9. At its peak, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center highlighted that the storm had 270 kph (165 mph) winds (1-minute sustained average); equal to a Category 5 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This is the strongest storm to strike Vanuatu since Cyclone Pam in 2015. Preliminary damage costs included at least USD111 million in Tonga alone, though economic losses running into the hundreds of millions (USD) were anticipated on Vanuatu. Fiji cited agricultural costs at USD13 million. Most of the financial costs were likely to remain uninsured.

Heavy rains prompted flash flooding and landslides in Papua New Guinea’s Kundiawa-Gembogl District, Chimbu Province on April 10. The worst damage was noted in Kegesuglo, where a landslide damaged or destroyed multiple homes. Government officials noted that at least 10 people died in Kegesuglo.

Supercell storms affected parts of central Queensland on April 19, generating up to softball-sized hail. Rockhampton, Yeppoon and Mackay areas were affected. Insurers received several thousands of claims due to this event as a result of vehicle and property damage. Though not officially declared an insurance catastrophe, it was anticipated that losses will reach well into the millions (USD).


Appendix

Updated 2020 Data: January-March

United States

Date Event Location Deaths Structures/


(USD) 01/10-01/12 Severe Weather Central & Eastern U.S. 12 110,000+ 1.2+ billion

02/03-02/08 Severe Weather Central & Eastern U.S. 5 125,000+ 1.25+ billion

02/08-02/10 Severe Weather West 0 15,000+ 140+ million

02/10-02/17 Flooding Southeast 0 Thousands 175+ million

02/25-02/27 Winter Weather Midwest, Northeast 1 Thousands 75+ million

03/02-03/05 Severe Weather Midwest, Southeast 25 40,000+ 1.1+ billion

03/11-03/13 Severe Weather Midwest, Southeast 0 Thousands 10s of millions

03/17-03/20 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, Southeast, Northeast 0 30,000+ 290+ million

03/18 Earthquake Utah 0 Thousands Millions

03/20 Flooding Midwest 8 Unknown Millions

03/24-03/25 Severe Weather Southeast 0 Thousands 10s of millions

03/27-03/30 Severe Weather Plains, Midwest, Southeast, Northeast 0 100,000+ 1.8+ billion

03/31 Severe Weather Southeast 0 10,000+ 125+ million

03/31 Earthquake Idaho 0 2,000 20+ million

Remainder of North America (Non-U.S.)

Date Event Location Deaths Structures/ Claims

Economic Loss (USD)

01/07-01/11 Earthquake Puerto Rico 1 20,000+ 1.25+ billion

01/11-01/12 Flooding Canada 0 6,200+ 180+ million

01/14-01/18 Winter Weather Canada 0 Thousands 10s of millions



01/28 Earthquake Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba 0 2,250+ Millions

01/31-02/01 Flooding Canada 0 2,000+ 10s of millions

02/06-02/08 Winter Weather Canada 0 2,000+ 10s of millions

02/26-02/28 Winter Weather Canada 1 Thousands 75+ million

02/28-02/29 Severe Weather Honduras 3 Hundreds Millions


South America


Economic Loss (USD)

01/17-01/29 Flooding Brazil 70 Thousands 300+ million

02/08-02/29 Flooding Bolivia 17 1,000+ 10s of millions

02/09-02/10 Flooding Brazil 4 4,000+ 50+ million

02/11-02/19 Flooding Argentina 1 1,000+ Millions

02/17-02/25 Flooding Peru 4 2,400+ Millions

03/01-03/03 Flooding Brazil 70 Thousands 10s of millions

Europe



(USD) 01/13 Windstorm Brendan Ireland, United Kingdom 1 Thousands 10s of millions

01/19-01/23 Flooding Spain 14 11,600+ 200+ million

02/03-02/04 Windstorm Petra Central Europe 3 12,500+ 180+ million

02/09-02/10 Windstorm Ciara Western & Central Europe 14 1.1+ million 2.3+ billion

02/15-02/16 Windstorm Dennis Western & Northern Europe 6 Thousands 650+ million

02/23-02/24 Windstorm Yulia Central Europe 0 Thousands 100+ million

02/27 Windstorm Bianca Western & Central Europe 0 Thousands 10s of millions

02/29 Windstorm Jorge Western Europe 0 Thousands 10s of millions

03/01 Windstorm Leon France 0 Hundreds Millions

03/02 Windstorm Karine France, Spain 0 Hundreds Millions

03/03 Windstorm Myriam France, Spain 0 Thousands 10s of millions

03/12 Windstorm Laura Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Poland 0 Thousands 10s of millions

03/22 Earthquake Croatia 1 26,197+ 1.1+ billion

03/23-04/02 Winter Weather Central & Southern Europe 0 N/A 500+ million

Middle East



(USD) 01/04-01/09 Flooding Israel 7 45,000+ 580+ million

01/09-01/20 Flooding Iran 4 20,000+ 808+ million

01/24 Earthquake Turkey 41 23,000+ 10s of millions

02/04-02/05 Winter Weather Turkey 41 Unknown Unknown

02/23 Earthquake Turkey, Iran 14 6,000+ Millions

02/24-04/30 Flooding Iran 23 10,000+ 1.2+ billion*

03/12-03/13 Flooding Egypt 40 Thousands 76+ million

03/18 Flooding Iraq 8 1,000+ Millions

03/25 Flooding Yemen 2 2,000+ 10+ million

*Free market conversion rate; Unofficial local exchange (USD325 million)


Africa


Economic Loss (USD)

01/01-01/31 Flooding Madagascar, Mozambique 60 25,800+ Millions

01/28-02/03 Flooding Tanzania 40 3,000+ Millions

01/28-02/13 Flooding Burundi 3 5,000+ Millions

01/01-03/31 Flooding Rwanda 60 Thousands Millions

01/01-03/31 Flooding Rwanda 60 1,000+ Millions

03/10-03/17 Flooding Tanzania 0 3,500+ Unknown

03/13-03/17 Cyclone Herold Madagascar 4 1,000+ Unknown

03/14-03/18 Flooding Democratic Republic of the Congo 0 5,000+ Millions

03/16-03/22 Severe Weather Burundi 2 1,000+ Millions

03/17-03/22 Flooding Zambia 0 2,200+ Unknown

03/24-03/31 Flooding Kenya 1 1,500+ Unknown

Asia


Economic Loss (USD)

01/01-03/31 Drought China N/A N/A 74+ million

01/04-01/07 Winter Weather China 0 5,000+ 70+ million

01/05-01/09 Severe Weather China 0 2,500+ 35+ million

01/11-01/14 Winter Weather Afghanistan, Pakistan, India 157 Thousands Millions

01/12-01/15 Volcano Philippines 0 3,813 67+ million

01/19 Earthquake China 1 8,000+ 25+ million


01/23-01/26 Winter Weather China 0 1,000+ 239+ million


02/12-02/15 Severe Weather China 1 Hundreds 16+ million

02/13-02/16 Winter Weather China 0 Hundreds 30+ million


02/21-02/25 Flooding Indonesia 10 35,000+ 10s of millions

03/02-03/05 Severe Weather Vietnam 3 7,187+ 1.5+ million

03/04-03/13 Flooding Pakistan 44 1,000+ Unknown

03/04-03/06 Flooding Indonesia 2 8,000+ 7.2+ million

03/13 Flooding East Timor 3 2,000+ 20+ million


03/21-03/25 Severe Weather Vietnam 1 5,430+ 4.1+ million

03/25-03/31 Flooding Afghanistan 35 3,000+ Unknown

03/30 Flooding China 8 Unknown Millions


03/30-03/31 Wildfire China 19 N/A Negligible


Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, South Pacific Islands)


Economic Loss (USD)

11/08-01/17 Heatwave/Bushfire Australia 34 23,362+ Billions

01/18-01/20 Severe Weather Australia 0 119,251+ 1.26+ billion

02/01-02/03 Flooding New Zealand 0 1,000+ Millions

02/07-02/11 Severe Weather Australia 0 92,448+ 840+ million

02/25 Severe Weather Australia 0 2,000+ Millions

03/21-03/24 Flooding Papua New Guinea 12 1,000+ Unknown

Additional Report Details TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone Fatality estimates as reported by public news media sources and official government agencies. Structures defined as any building – including barns, outbuildings, mobile homes, single or multiple family dwellings, and commercial facilities – that is damaged or destroyed by winds, earthquakes, hail, flood, tornadoes, hurricanes or any other natural-occurring phenomenon. Claims defined as the number of claims (which could be a combination of homeowners, commercial, auto and others) reported by various public and private insurance entities through press releases or various public media outlets. Damage estimates are obtained from various public media sources, including news websites, publications from insurance companies, financial institution press releases and official government agencies. Damage estimates are determined based on various public media sources, including news websites, publications from insurance companies, financial institution press releases, and official government agencies. Economic loss totals are separate from any available insured loss estimates. An insured loss is the portion of the economic loss covered by public or private insurance entities. In rare instances, specific events may include modeled loss estimates determined from utilizing Impact Forecasting’s suite of catastrophe model products.


Contact Information Adam Podlaha Head of Impact Forecasting Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected] Michal Lörinc Senior Catastrophe Analyst Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected]

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