Global Butadiene Markets: the importance of Crude C4 · Global Butadiene Markets: the importance of...
Transcript of Global Butadiene Markets: the importance of Crude C4 · Global Butadiene Markets: the importance of...
Global Butadiene Markets:
the importance of Crude C4
Bernard Bekaert
Chairman & CEO
ICIS World Olefines Conference
Madrid, 12.03.2014
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DISCLAIMER
The following presentation reflects the personal opinion and vision
of the author. Although high care is given to the correctness of the
shown data, the author will not accept any liabilities for errors in
such data, if any. The presented material is meant for discussion
purposes only and should not be used for commercial nor strategic
decisions. Please note that the logic of the past is not necessarily
the logic of the future.
ICIS World Olefins Conference - Madrid - March 2014
Content
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1. Specialized Logistics & Trading
2. Butadiene is a co-product • Ethylene
• Crude C4
• Butadiene
3. Major changes 2015-2020 • Europe
• United States
• Middle East
• Asia
4. Conclusions & Opportunities
ICIS World Olefins Conference - Madrid - March 2014
1.1 Specialized Logistics & Trade
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C4U
TRADE
• C4U Trade offers logistic services and solutions for the C4 markets worldwide
• We focus on structural, recurrent business based on our logistics network and expertise
• We facilitate, combine and aggregate shipments and propose optimized flows between producers and consumers
ICIS World Olefins Conference - Madrid - March 2014
1.2 Structured for Global Growth
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C4U TRADE INTERNATIONAL, AG
ZUG, SWITZERLAND
C4U TRADE USA
HOUSTON, TEXAS
C4U TRADE EUROPE
LEUVEN, BELGIUM
C4U MIDDLE EAST
UAE (2014)
C4U TRADE ASIA
SINGAPORE (2014)
ICIS World Olefins Conference - Madrid - March
2014
2.1 Butadiene is a co-product
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R
E
F
I
N
E
R
Y
C
R
A
C
K
E
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Butadiene
Extraction
Naphtha Crude Oil
3000kT
1000kT C2
500kT C3
300kT CC4 130kT Butadiene
or B/E = 13%
170kT Raffinate-1
Lights
Pygas
Fraction Price Unit
Crude Oil 100 $/bbl
Crude Oil 700 $/mt
Naphtha 920 $/mt
Crude C4 1030 $/mt
Butadiene 1400 $/mt
Rough Cost+ Values
ICIS World Olefins Conference - Madrid - March 2014
2.2 Ethylene 2010-2020:
strong growth, except in Europe
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NOTE: world (million tons): 2010: 122 – 2015: 145 – 2020: 175
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
2010 2015 2020
ETHYLENE 2010 - 2020 (KT)
South East Asia
West Europe
Middle East
North America
North East Asia
ICIS World Olefins Conference - Madrid - March 2014
2.3 Crude C4’s 2010-2020:
Ethane vs Naphtha cracking
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NOTE: world (million tons): 2010: 12 – 2015: 13 – 2020: 16
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
2010 2015 2020
Crude C4 as Butadiene 2010-2020 (KT)
South East Asia
West Europe
Middle East
North America
North East Asia
ICIS World Olefins Conference - Madrid - March 2014
2.4 Butadiene 2010-2020:
hydrogenation vs extraction
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NOTE: world (million tons): 2010: 10 – 2015: 12 – 2020: 14
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
2010 2015 2020
BUTADIENE 2010 - 2020 (KT)
South East Asia
West Europe
Middle East
North America
North East Asia
ICIS World Olefins Conference - Madrid - March 2014
• Lower operating rates/ closures
• Lighter cracking (E/P/B)
• 400 – 600 KT extra BD extraction capacity by end of 2015 (LBI, BASF, Evonik, OMV, MOL, Versalis)
• Much of this extra BD is relocated capacity. Net extra molecules 150 – 200 KT.
• EU will be short in Crude C4, but may be long in BD.
• BD production/ capacity ratio from 2.0/ 2.4 to 2.2/ 2.8
3.1 Major Changes: Europe
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• 10 million tonnes of extra Ethylene capacity announced by 2018 (30 -> 40 MMT).
• Despite Ethane cracking and thus low B/E, non-negligible 200 KT extra BD.
• Better utilisation of existing BD extraction and close to self-sufficiency... but may be offset by less Crude C4 available from Europe.
• On-purpose BD?
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3.2 Major Changes: United States
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• Ethylene capacity annouced to grow from 20 -> 35 MMT.
• NGL’s and Naphtha introduced as feed, hence B/E ratio’s improving from 2 to 5%
• BD derivative projects planned (ABS, PBR, EPDM, Butyl Rubber)
• Logistic constraints for stand alone crackers, high potential for complexes like Al Jubail
• Heavier olefins/ Elastomers/ product diversification/ job creation/ automotive industry high on the strategic agendas
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3.3 Major Changes: Middle East
ICIS World Olefins Conference - Madrid - March 2014
• Lower GDP growth rates, but still very healthy
• Series of elastomer projects (NBR, PBR, ABS, SBR, EPDM, Butyl Rubber)
• Continued need for C4 imports, despite Ethylene expansions (40 -> 60 MMT)
• US/ MDE will use feedstock cost advantage to compete for Asian markets
• Alternative technologies CTO/ MTO/ BDH
• Shale?
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3.4 Major Changes: Asia
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• Access to Crude C4 is the critical issue
• Massive investments based on competitive feedstock in the US and the Middle East, steady growth in Asia
• Europe under pressure
• Shift in trade flows
• C4’s on the agenda in the MDE
• No global C4 shortage at today’s operating rates and projected growth
• Logistic constraints, S/D imbalances and low liquidity will continue to fuel price volatility
4. Conclusions
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C4U Trade: connecting the dots
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