Global Burden of Animal Diseases(GBADs) · 2019. 12. 19. · •Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation...
Transcript of Global Burden of Animal Diseases(GBADs) · 2019. 12. 19. · •Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation...
Aquaculture round-table, FAO, Rome18th December 2019https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Global Burden of Animal Diseases (GBADs)
J. Rushton, M. Bruce, C. Bellet, P Torgerson, A.P.M. Shaw, M. Herrero, T. Marsh, D. Pendell, T. Bernardo, D. Pigott, M. Stone, J. Pinto, S. Mesenhowski, T. Leyland, M.
Peyre, K. Watkins, V. Kapur, A. Havelaar, D. Grace, B. Huntington, P. Wood and GBADs collaborators
https://animalhealthmetrics.org
Acknowledgements
• FAO – Melba Reantaso• OIE –Monique Eloit, Matthew Stone, Emily Tagliaro, Stian Johnsen• Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation – Sam Thevasagayam, Shannon
Mesenhowski, Belinda Richardson• UK’s Department of International Development – Alan Tollervey, Tim
Leyland• N8 Agrifood – Katherine Denby• University of Liverpool – Nigel Cunliffe, Matthew Baylis, Nicola
Williams and our research group• GBADs collaborators
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Agenda
• What is the impact of disease in livestock and aquaculture for producers, consumers and the environment?• The use of economics in animal health• Why is a systematic approach needed?• The Global Burden of Animal Diseases• Closing questions
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Importance of livestock and aquaculture
• Societies are dependent on livestock and aquaculture for high quality protein and micronutrients• The changes in our food system have allowed a significant increase in
the number of animals we keep and maintain in farming systems• And the way these animals are managed has meant a significant
increase in the availability of meat and fish in both rich and poor countries • However malnutrition continues generating negative externalities
that demand societal coordination
There are billions of poor consumers who have micronutrient and protein deficient diets
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Importance of livestock and aquaculture
• A major proportion of the livestock and aquatic species we keep are in large farms under controlled and intensive conditions• They are major users of pharmaceuticals
• Yet the majority of the livestock keepers and aquatic farmers have small scale enterprises• These people are poor and in many situations have poor access to
veterinary services and veterinary technologies• The inadequate distribution of animal health systems is a market
failure which needs societal intervention
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There are hundreds of millions of poor producers who have poor access to animal
health services and technologies
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Livestock and aquaculture dominate resource use
• Livestock and aquaculture have become dominant:• Land use – it is estimated that two thirds of land is dedicated to livestock
(Wirsenius et al, 2010)• Water use – agriculture takes between 70% and 90% of the freshwater
(Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007) and a third is used on livestock (Gerben-Leenes et al, 2013)• Environmental emissions with livestock being a major source of methane and
indirectly CO2 emissions and local pollution (FAO, 2006)
• Land, water and air resources are largely public goods – they need to be managed and controlled with societal oversight
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Our livestock keepers, consumers and the environment need:• Investment plans which ensure there are adequate
animal health systems• Allocation of resources to problems that most affect their
health and wellbeing• Evaluation of animal health investments to ensure they
are delivering on societal outcomes
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How are we currently using economics in animal health?
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No attributionActual Size of the Opportunity Cost of the Health Loss
Illustrative
AHPND
White spot
Yellow Head
HPM Vibriosis
Black GillSoft shell
AHPND
White spot
Yellow HeadHPM Vibriosis
Black GillSoft shell
Developed countries impact exaggerated as individual studies combine to suggest a loss that is greater than the reality
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The use of economics in animal health
• Economics is used in animal health to demonstrate the dramatic impact of specific diseases, and to show that strategies to manage and possibly eradicate disease are economically profitable• Therefore the emphasis of the current use of economics is for
advocacy around individual diseases and their control• The focus on individual diseases provides us with only a partial
assessment of the burden of animal diseases• Such partial analysis leaves us vulnerable because it is not sufficient
to support business cases for effective investment in animal health
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Juanita Peréz- The problems of a woman livestock keeper living on the margins
She was offered advice on foot-and-mouth disease
Juanita has animal health problems and we assumed we knew what they were (we didn't)
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Our current use of economics in animal health leaves us:• Weak in developing strong evidence based investment plans
for animal health systems• Poor in allocating resources to key social, economic and
environmental problems• Limited in evaluating the impact of our ongoing animal
health investments
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How we will improve the use of economics in animal health:- Global Burden of Animal Diseases
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Building blocks - From population numbers to people- how would this translate to aquaculture?
100 million shrimp
90 millionCorporate Farm
10 millionFamily farms
No ponds10,000 families
1 ponds20,000 families
2-5 ponds5,000 families
>5 ponds1,000 families
Illustrative
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Building blocks – animal health loss envelope
Population model
Enterprise Budget NowOutputVariable CostsFixed Costs
Enterprise Budget “Utopia”OutputVariable CostsFixed Costs
Health Loss EnvelopeProduction loss & Expenditure
Difference
Attribution
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Building block - attribution
Shrimp system
No attribution
Health loss envelope
No attributionAHPND
WSSV Yellow Head
HPM
No attributionAHPND
WSSV Yellow Head
HPM Vibriosis
Black GillSoft
sh
ell
Illustrative
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Health Loss Envelope
Partial Equilibrium
Input-Output Budgeting
EconomicAssessment
Agriculture- Production shocks- Consumer demand- International trade
Regional Non-Agricultural - Tourism- Travel- Lodging & Food
Government- Quarantine- Surveillance- Vaccination- Indemnification- Clean & Disinfect
Total Economic Impacts
Source: adapted from Pendell et al., 2015
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GBADs timeline
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026-30
GranularityImprovement
BiomassInvestment
Health Loss Envelope
Attribution by causes & risk factors
PrioritisationCentres of Excellence
FundingConsolidation
InformaticsCase studiesEngagementCommunication
Wider Economic Impacts
Code for economic
assessment of animal health
https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
Metrics to compare regions and sectors- learning lessons from GBD
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From crude ad hoc loss estimates
23
Estimated livestock losses by disease measured as LSU/year (data from World Bank, 2011)
1
-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
100,000
HPA
IEc
hino
cocc
osis
Avia
n in
fect
ious
bro
nchi
tis BTB
LPAI
EBL
New
cast
le d
isea
seBr
ucel
la a
bort
us IBD
CSF
Myc
opla
smos
isSw
ine
vesi
cula
r dis
ease HS
Oth
er c
attle
dise
ases
Bruc
ella
mel
itens
isFM
DPR
RS ASF
Auje
sky'
s dis
ease
Anth
rax
Loss
es (L
SU/y
ear)
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To granulatory on the losses by disease, health and accidents- temporal and spatial
https://vizhub.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/
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Granularity of impacts by cause and geography
NotifiableDiseases
Endemic Disease
Nutrition, water, injury
Global or regional
NotifiableDiseases
Endemic Disease
Nutrition, water, injury
National
NotifiableDiseases
Endemic Disease
Nutrition, water, injury
Sector – species and production system
Illustrative
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Providing impact by people affected and type of impact
Types of producer and consumer
Small scaleProducersPr
opor
tion
of in
com
e
Large scaleProducersRural
Consumers
Urban Consumers
Illustrative
Losses in production
Impact type
$
Change in the wider economy
ExpenditureCore
ExpenditureVariable
Costs to the environment
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Link between the outputs and investment plans
GBADsMetrics
PVS &Gap Analysis
Investment Plans For Animal Health
Systems
InformationOn Burden
InformationOn Veterinary
Services
Resource Allocation of finance,
personnel and logistics
ApprovedBudget
GBADsMetrics
InformationOn Burden
Animal Health
Systems
Animal Health
Outcomes
GBADsMetrics
PVSMetrics
Evaluation of Investment in Animal Health
People on the margins
Nutrition
Genetics
Parasitic Diseases
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Global Burden of Animal Diseases programme will:• Provide information for evidence based investment plans
animal health systems - supporting PVS and Gap Analysis• Allow allocation of resources to key social, economic and
environmental problems - strengthening PVS outcomes• Support high quality evaluation of existing animal health
investments demonstrating the value of animal health systems
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Closing questions – I need your feedback please
• Would this approach be of value for aquaculture producers and policy makers?
• What is the true impact of aquatic health issues and how should this be measured?• Can we identify ongoing work on impact and key people or groups to
link with?• Who are the users of the impact assessment and what do they
want/need?