GLOBAL AND REGIONAL NEW-CROP OUTLOOK FOR...

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL NEW-CROP OUTLOOK

FOR OILSEEDS

01 NOVEMBER 2018, Varna/BULGARIA

GRAIN ACADEMY 2018

AGENDA

1-OILSEEDS OUTLOOK GLOBALLY

2 – OILSEEDS OUTLOOK IN BLACK SEA

3 – 2018/19 NEW-SEASON PROSPECTS

4- PRESENTATION SUMMARY

OILSEEDS OUTLOOK GLOBALLY

IN 2017/18 SEASON;

WORLD OILSEEDS OUTPUT WAS RECORD AROUND

565 MLN T.( 16/17, 560 )

HOWEVER, BY 17/18 SEASON,THE OUTPUT OF OILSEEDS WAS

LOWER THAN WHEAT AND EVEN THE HALF OF CORN.

- CORN, 1.04 MLRD T ( 16/17, record 1.08

),

- WHEAT, 760 MLN T ( 16/17, 750 ),

- OILSEEDS, 565 MLN T ( 16/17, 560 ),

- RICE, 490 MLN T ( 16/17, 485 ).

SOYBEAN WAS

THE LOCOMOTIVE

OF OIILSEEDS WITH OVER 60% SHARE.

IN 2017/18 SEASON;

- SOYBEAN, 340 MLN T ( 16/17, record 350

),

- RAPESEED, 70 MLN T ( 16/17, 68 ),

- SUNSEED, 49.2 MLN T ( 16/17, 50.25

),

- COTTONSEED, 44.5 MLN T ( 16/17, 39 ).

OILSEEDS OUTLOOK IN BLACK SEA

IN OUR PRESENTATION;

WE WILL TRY TO PROVIDE OILSEEDS OUTLOOK FOR

MAJOR BLACK SEA COUNTRIES INCLUDING

TURKEY, UKRAINE, RUSSIA ROMANIA, BULGARIA,

MOLDOVA AND KAZAKHSTAN.

1- TURKEY

TURKEY IS THE NET OILSEEDS IMPORTER COUNTRY AND THE MAIN DESTINATION

FOR BLACK SEA OILSEEDS EXPORTERS.

TURKISH OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )

Sunseed 1.625 51%Cottonseed 1.350 43%

Soybean 125 4%

Rapeseed 45 1% Safflowerseed 30 1%

2017/18 Season, 3.175 KMT total

Source: SUNSEEDMAN

AS IT'S SEEN;

SUNSEED IS THE MOST RAISED OILSEED OF

TURKEY.

COTTONSEED ALSO HAS BIG SHARE.

HOWEVER, OTHER OILSEEDS ARE JUST MINOR ONES.

IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;

TURKEY IMPORTED 3.29 MLN T OF OILSEEDS

AND SOYBEAN WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH

2.34 MLN T & 71% SHARE.

TURKISH OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( KMT )

Soybean 2.341 71%

Sunflower 610 18%

Rapeseed 29,5 1%CornGerm 91 3%

Safflowerseed 91 3%

Sun Flour 4 0%

Linseed 121,5 4%

2017 Calendar Year, 3.29 Mln T total

Source: TURKSTATS


TURKEY PAID

3.24 MILLIARD USD

FOR THE IMPORTS OF

OILSEEDS & DERIVATIVES.


TURKEY EXPORTED

ALMOST NIL OF OILSEEDS.

2- UKRAINE

UKRAINE IS THE NET OILSEEDS EXPORTER

COUNTRY AND THE BIGGEST SUPPLIER OF

OILSEEDS & DERIVATIVES IN BLACK SEA.

UKRAINIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )

Sunseed 13.500 67%

Soybean 4.450 22%

Rapeseed 2.300 11%Linseed 50 0%

2017/18 Season, 20.3 Mln T total

Source: SUNSEEDMAN & OIL WORLD

AS IT'S SEEN;

SUNSEED IS THE LEADER OILSEED OF UKRAINE AS WELL.

BOTH RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN OUTPUTS ARE ALSO GETTING

HIGHER IN RECENT YEARS.

IN 2017/18 SEASON,

UKRAINE;

- RAISED 20.3 MLN T OF GLOBAL OILSEED OUTPUT OF

565 MLN T, IE 3.6% SHARE.

- RAISED 13.5 MLN T OF GLOBAL SUNSEED OUTPUT OF

49.2 MLN T, IE 27.5% SHARE.


UKRAINE EXPORTED 5.2 MLN T OF OILSEEDS


2.87 MLN T & 55% SHARE.

UKRAINIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT )

Soybean 2.866 55%

Sunflower 142 3%

Rapeseed 2.137 41%

Linseed 57 1%2017 Calendar Year, 5.2 Mln T total

Source: OIL WORLD

DUE TO AROUND 10% EXPORT-DUTYAND LUCRATIVE LOCAL PRICES,

ALMOST ALL OF UKRAINIAN SUNSEED HAS BEEN CRUSHED LOCALLY

AND SO

UKRAINE BECOMES THE LEADER GLOBAL SUNOIL AND SUNMEAL

EXPORTER BY CREATING ADDED-VALUE.


UKRAINE IMPORTED ALMOST NIL OF

OILSEEDS EXCEPT HYBRID PLANTING

SEEDS.

3- RUSSIA

RUSSIA IS THE NET OILSEEDS IMPORTER

COUNTRY ( THE SECOND BIGGEST IMPORTER AFTER TURKEY ), BUT ALSO THE

SECOND BIGGEST EXPORTER OF SUNOIL AND SUNMEAL IN BLACK SEA.

RUSSIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )

Sunseed 11.250 66%

Soybean 3.700 22%

Rapeseed 1.500 9%

Safflowerseed 100 0% Linseed 575 3%

2017/18 Season, 17.13 Mln T total


AS IT'S SEEN;

SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF

RUSSIA AS WELL.

BOTH RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN OUTPUTS ARE ALSO GETTING

HIGHER IN RECENT YEARS.

IN 2017/18 SEASON,

RUSSIA;

- RAISED 17.13 MLN T OF GLOBAL OILSEED OUTPUT OF


- RAISED 11.25 MLN T OF GLOBAL SUNSEED OUTPUT OF

49.2 MLN T, IE 23% SHARE.


RUSSIA EXPORTED 1.660 KMT OF OILSEEDS

AND LINSEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH

533 KMT & 32% SHARE.

RUSSIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT )

Soybean 520 31%

Sunflower 315 19%

Rapeseed 192 12%

Safflowerseed 100 6%

Linseed 533 32%

2017 Calendar Year, 1.660 kmt total

Source: OIL WORLD

DUE TO 6.5% EXPORT-DUTY

( IN EFFECT SINCE SEP 1, 2016 VS 9.88% EARLIER ) AND LUCRATIVE LOCAL PRICES,

ALMOST ALL OF RUSSIAN SUNSEED HAS BEEN CRUSHED LOCALLY

AND SO

RUSSIA ALSO BECOMES AMIDS SIGNIFICANT GLOBAL SUNOIL AND SUNMEAL EXPORTERS BY

CREATING ADDED-VALUE.


RUSSIA IMPORTED 2.54 MLN T OF OILSEEDS


2.24 MLN T & 88% SHARE.

RUSSIAN OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( KMT )

Soybean 2.237 88%

Sunflower 105,5 4%

Rapeseed 34 1% Groundnuts 139 5%

Sesameseed 14 1%

Linseed 16 1%


Source: OIL WORLD

4- ROMANIA

ROMANIA IS THE NET OILSEEDS

EXPORTER COUNTRY ( THE BIGGEST GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTER, ).

ROMANIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )

Sunseed 2.500 53%

Soybean 350 7%

Rapeseed 1.900 40%

Linseed 5 0%2017/18 Season, 4.76 Mln T total


AS IT'S SEEN;

SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF ROMANIA AS WELL.

BOTH RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN OUTPUTS HAVE BEEN ALSO

GETTING HIGHER IN RECENT YEARS.

IN 2017/18 SEASON,

ROMANIA;

- RAISED 4.76 MLN T OF EU-28 OILSEED OUTPUT OF


- RAISED 2.5 MLN T OF EU-28 SUNSEED OUTPUT OF

9.85 MLN T, IE 25% SHARE.


ROMANIA EXPORTED 3.14 MLN T OF OILSEEDS

AND RAPESEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH

1.53 MLN T & 49% SHARE.

ROMANIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT )

Soybean 272 9%

Sunflower 1338 42%Rapeseed 1.530 49%


Source: OIL WORLD


ROMANIA IMPORTED 500 KMT OF OILSEEDS

AND SUNSEED WAS ONCE THE

BIGGEST ONE WITH 275 KMT & 55% SHARE.

ROMANIAN OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( KMT )

Soybean 133 27%

Sunflower 275 55%

Rapeseed 77 15%

Groundnuts 12 2% Sesameseed 3 1% 2017 Calendar Year, 500 kmt total

Source: OIL WORLD

5- BULGARIA

BULGARIA IS ALSO THE NET OILSEEDS

EXPORTER COUNTRY ( THE SECOND BIGGEST GLOBAL

SUNSEED EXPORTER ).

BULGARIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )

Sunseed 1.950 79%

Soybean 35 2%

Rapeseed 475 19%

Groundnut 5 0%2017/18 Season, 2.47 Mln T total


AS IT'S SEEN;

SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF BULGARIA AS WELL.

RAPESEED OUTPUT ALMOST STAGNATES AND THERE ARE SOME

SOYBEAN OUTPUT TRIALS .

IN 2017/18 SEASON,

BULGARIA;

- RAISED 2.47 MLN T OF EU-28 OILSEED OUTPUT OF


- RAISED 1.95 MLN T OF EU-28 SUNSEED OUTPUT OF

9.85 MLN T, IE 20.0% SHARE.


BULGARIA EXPORTED 1.25 MLN T OF OILSEEDS

AND SUNSEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH


BULGARIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT )

Soybean 4 0%

Sunflower 785 75%

Rapeseed 255 25%


Source: OIL WORLD

AS SUNFLOWER;

BULGARIA EXPORTS

- OIL-BEARING/TO BE CRUSHED,- DEHULLED ( LEADER GLOBALLY ),- SUNFLOWER FLOUR

( BY PRODUCT OF DEHULLING SECTOR )


BULGARIA IMPORTED 240 KMT OF OILSEEDS

AND SUNSEED WAS ONCE THE

BIGGEST ONE WITH 178 KMT & 74% SHARE.

BULGARIAN OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( KMT )

Soybean 5 2%

Sunflower 178 74%

Rapeseed 43 18%

Groundnuts 14 6%2017 Calendar Year, 240 kmt total

Source: OIL WORLD

6- MOLDOVA

MOLDOVA IS ALSO THE NET OILSEEDS

EXPORTER COUNTRY ( THE MAIN ORIGIN OF TURKISH

SUNSEED IMPORTS).

MOLDOVIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )

Sunseed 900 88%

Soybean 50 5%Rapeseed 70 7%

2017/18 Season, 1.020 kmt total


AS IT'S SEEN;

SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF MOLDOVA ( INCLUDING

TRANSNISTRIA ) AS WELL.

THERE ARE ALSO SOME LOWER RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN

OUTPUTS.


MOLDOVA EXPORTED 602 KMT OF OILSEEDS

AND SUNSEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH

521 KMT & 86.5% SHARE.

MOLDOVIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT )

Soybean 18 3%

Sunflower 521 87%

Rapeseed 63 10%

2017 Calendar Year, 602 kmt total

Source: OIL WORLD


MOLDOVA IMPORTED ONLY 4 KMT OF OILSEEDS ( MOSTLY HYBRIDS )

INCLUDING SOYBEANS, SUNFLOWER AND

GROUNDNUTS.

7- KAZAKHSTAN

KAZAKHSTAN IS ALSO

THE NET OILSEEDS EXPORTER COUNTRY.

KAZAKH OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )

Sunseed 850 42%

Soybean 250 12%

Cottonseed 140 7%

Linseed 550 27%

Rapeseed 250 12%2017/18 Season, 2.04 Mln T. total

Source: OIL WORLD & SUNSEEDMAN

AS IT'S SEEN;

SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF

KAZAKSTAN.

THE COUNTRY IS ALSO ONE OF THE BIGGEST

GLOBAL LINSEED PRODUCERS/EXPORTERS.


KAZAKHSTAN EXPORTED 540 KMT OF OILSEEDS

AND LINSEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH


KAZAKH OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT )

Soybean 17 3%

Sunflower 152 28%

Linseed 292 54%

Rapeseed 79 15%

2017 Calendar Year, 540 kmt total

Source: OIL WORLD


KAZAKHSTAN IMPORTED ONLY

30 KMT OF OILSEEDSINCLUDING 14 KMT OF

GROUNDNUTS, 9 KMT OF SUNSEED AND 7 KMT

SOYBEAN

2018/19 SEASON GLOBAL & REGIONAL

PROSPECTS

IN 2018/19 NEW-SEASON

OUR GLOBAL SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE

AS FOLLOWINGS;

- UKRAINE, 15.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 13.50 ),

- RUSSIA, 12.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 11.25 ),

- EU-28, 9.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 9.85 ),

- ARGENTINA, 3.75 MLN T ( 17/18, 3.45 ),

- CHINA, 3.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.9 ),

- TURKEY, 1.430 KMT ( 17/18, 1.625 ),

- USA, 900 KMT ( 17/18, 975 ),

- TOTAL, record 51.4 MLN T ( 17/18, 49.2 ), 2.2 MLN T


OUR REGIONAL SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE

AS FOLLOWINGS;

- UKRAINE, 15.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 13.50 ),

- RUSSIA, 12.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 11.25 ),

- ROMANIA, 2.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.5 ),

- BULGARIA, 1.9 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.95 ),

- TURKEY, 1.43 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.63 ),

- MOLDOVA, 950 KMT ( 17/18, 900 ),

- KAZAKHSTAN, 850 KMT ( 17/18, 850 ),

- TOTAL, 34.63 MLN T ( 17/18, 32.58 ), 2.05 MLN T


OUR GLOBAL RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE

AS FOLLOWINGS;

- CANADA, 21.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 21.25 ),

- EU-28, 19.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 22.0 ),

- CHINA, 7.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 9.0 ),

- INDIA, 6.75 MLN T ( 17/18, 6.5 ),

- AUSTRALIA, 2.25 MLN T ( 17/18, 3.85 ),

- UKRAINE, 2.7 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.3 ),

- RUSSIA, 2.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.5 ),

- TOTAL, 66.15 MLN T ( 17/18, 70.0 ), 3.85 MLN T


OUR REGIONAL RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE

AS FOLLOWINGS;

- UKRAINE, record 2.70 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.3 ),

- RUSSIA, record 2.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.5 ),

- ROMANIA, 1.7 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.9 ),

- BULGARIA, 425 KMT ( 17/18, 475 ),

- KAZAKHSTAN, 250 KMT ( 17/18, 250 ),

- TURKEY, 115 KMT ( 17/18, 45 ),

- MOLDOVA, 70 KMT ( 17/18, 70 ),

- TOTAL, 7.26 MLN T ( 17/18, 6.54 ), 720 KMT


OUR GLOBAL SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE

AS FOLLOWINGS;

- USA, record 128 MLN T ( 17/18, 120 ),

- BRAZIL, record 121 MLN T ( 17/18, 119.5),

- ARGENTINA, 52 MLN T 17/18, 35 ),

- CHINA, 15 MLN T ( 17/18, 16.0 ),

- INDIA, 10.35 MLN T ( 17/18, 8.35 ),

- PARAGUAY, 10 MLN T ( 17/18, 9.8 ),

- CANADA, 7.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 7.75 ),

- TOTAL, record 370 MLN T ( 17/18, 340 ), 30 MLN T


OUR REGIONAL SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE

AS FOLLOWINGS;

- UKRAINE, 4.40 MLN T ( 17/18, 4.45 ),

- RUSSIA, record 4.1 MLN T ( 17/18, 3.7 ),

- ROMANIA, 325 KMT ( 17/18, 350 ),

- KAZAKHSTAN, 250 KMT ( 17/18, 250 ),

- TURKEY, 100 KMT ( 17/18, 125 ),

- MOLDOVA, 50 KMT ( 17/18, 50 ),

- BULGARIA, 25 KMT ( 17/18, 35 ),

- TOTAL, 9.25 MLN T ( 17/18, 8.96 ), 290 KMT

AS IT'S SEEN;

GLOBAL SUNSEED AND ESPECIALLY SOYBEAN

NEW-CROP SIZES WILL BE HIGHER, BUT RAPESEEDOUTPUT WILL BE LOWER

IN 2018/2019 SEASON.

AS IT'S ALSO SEEN;

BLACK SEA SUNSEED, RAPESEED AND SOYBEANOUTPUTS WILL BE HIGHER

IN 2018/2019 SEASON.

PRESENTATION

SUMMARY

• BLACK SEA IS THE HEART OF GLOBAL SUNSEEED OUTPUT AND TRADE.

• UKRAINE & RUSSIA ARE GLOBAL LEADERS IN SUNSEED OUTPUT AND THE

EXPORTS OF SUNOIL & SUNMEAL.

• ROMANIA IS THE BIGGEST GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTER.

• SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA BY 2018/19 SEASON WILL BE AT RECORD

34.63 MLN T BEING 2.05 MLN T MORE THAN 2017/18 SEASON.

• BLACK SEA IS RATHER SMALL PART OF GLOBAL RAPESEED OUTPUT ( 66.15 MLN T )

WITH ONLY 11% SHARE ( 7.26 MLN T ).

• RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA BY 2018/19 SEASON WILL BE HIGHER

WITH RECORD UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN NEW-CROP ALBEIT BALKAN LOSSES.

• BLACK SEA MAY BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR GLOBAL SOYBEAN OUTPUT WITH ONLY 2.5%

SHARE.

• NEVERTHELESS, UKRAINE IS THE BIGGEST IMPORT ORIGIN OF TURKEY.

• SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA BY 2018/19 SEASON WILL BE ALSO

SLIGHTLY HIGHER VS 2017/18 SEASON.

• WITH RECORD NEW-CROP SIZES, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCOMOTIVE SOYBEAN, THE

PRICES OF OILSEEDS & DERIVATIVES MAY BE UNDER PRESSURE DURING 2018/19

SEASON. WEATHER CONDITIONS AND US/CHINESE TRADE WARS ARE CRUCIAL.

Great thanks for your kind attention…

голямо благодаря

THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND

BROKERAGE AS PER 20-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE

VEYSEL KAYAhttp://www.sunseedman.com

[email protected] : SUNSEEDMAN

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