Global aims -> Policies in regions
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Transcript of Global aims -> Policies in regions
1Challenge the future
Global aims ->Policies in regions
Patricia Osseweijer21 June 2013
2Challenge the future
maisloof bagasse
The Petrochemical Period: 1900 - ?
• focus on quality & safety• centralised production
• multinationals• patent protected• few big owners
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Biobased: -focus on economic feasibility & sustainability
-decentralised production-role for small owners
-different economy of scale?
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Challenges
• Climate Change• Growing population• Depletion of rare
resources• Loss of biodiversity• Increasing waste
• … and local development!
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Electric cars the solution?
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We need
Or?
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• Global drivers for innovation • Focus on economy & environmental sustainability
• Society versus industry and policy: public debates
• Importance of integral assessment
• Importance showing local social development
• Importance to connect social sciences to tech sciences
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Cramer criteria for sustainability
6 Themes:
•Greenhouse gas emissions; •Competition with food and other local applications; •Biodiversity; •Environment; •Prosperity; and •Social Well-being
Ismail, M., & Rossi, A. 2010. A Compilation of Bioenergy Sustainability Initiatives.
Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO)
Measurable standards & non-measurable general
concepts
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We need policies to implement sustainable biofuels
Effective policies depend on public and stakeholder support
Conclusions (2)
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Perceptions: Biofuels causing hunger?
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Causal relations?Food prices, climate linked to civil conflicts
Source: Hsiang et al., Nature 2011
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Major societal debates*
• Biofuels versus food
• Sustainability of biofuels and bio-energy
• Marketisation and commodification of nature (Nature Inc. -- is nature for sale?)
• Scale debate (economy of scale vs. ‘small is beautiful’)
• Precautionary principles vs. learning by doing
• Land, water, resource grabbing -- neo-colonisation debate
* F. Mukhtarov, 2012 (forthcoming)
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In public debates:
Rational quantified data on environmental impact = answer emotional concerns
What is good?
•Moral concepts
•Cultural differences
•Public emotions
Policies and support
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From debates: Four key ethical concepts
•Sustainability• What is sustainable?
•Trust and confidence• Who to trust and who takes initiative?
•Naturalness• Value of nature and ‘natural ingredients’
•Just distribution• Is it fair and does it give value to all?
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Global implementation of sustainable bioeconomy requires
Strong policiesSupported by aligned non-conflicting regulations
Based on better predictive models and cascade useIncreased certainty in models: technological change and 2nd generation, yields, R&D down (last decade), learning effects, public acceptance including for example GMOs
Operationalisation of sustainability Environmental, social and economic
Public and stakeholder agreementIdentifying common grounds
Effective education, communication & impact evaluation
Understanding worldviews and emotions
Summary
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Macro-economic studies indicate*:
With current oil price biofuels not competitive (except Brazil?)
Shale gas and economic situation is challenging this even further
Depends strongly on fossil price and biofuel policies
Volume dependent on policies/directives, such as subsidies for fossils and EU directive
Cascade model for efficient use biomass more competitive and sustainable! But requires novel collaborations and level playing field
When economic feasible for large demands: than effect on food price!
* Hans van Meijl, LEI-WUR
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Sustainability is complex
•Durable, biodegradable, environmentally friendly, fair, non-GM, organic, economically viable, natural, …
Both: measurable specific standards AND unmeasurable general
concepts
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Sustainable development
• Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (Brundlandt definition, 1987)
• Looking for a balance between what one desires and what is possible, between human activity and the carrying capacity of the system “Earth” and the repairing capacity of this system
(VN World Commission on Sustainable Development, 1987)
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Social & Environmental: A safe and just space for humanity
Oxfam, 2012
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Three components of sustainability
•Environment (planet)
•Economics (profit)
•Social aspects (people)
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Outline
• What is ‘sustainability’?
• Factors of sustainability and its measurement
• Reporting sustainability
• Importance of sustainability proposition
• Elements of a successful pitch
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9 principles1. GHG balance of production chain and application of biomass must be positive;
2. Biomass production must not be at expense of important carbon sinks in vegetation and soil;
3. Production of biomass for energy must not endanger food supply and local biomass
applications (energy supply, medicines and building materials);
4. Biomass production must not affect protected or vulnerable biodiversity and will, where
possible, have to strengthen biodiversity;
5. In production and processing of biomass soil and soil quality are retained or improved;
6. In production and processing of biomass ground and surface water must not be depleted and
water quality must be maintained or improved;
7. In production and processing of biomass air quality must be maintained or improved;
8. Production of biomass must contribute towards local prosperity; and
9. Production of biomass must contribute towards social well-being of employees and local
population.
ⱱ
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Environment
• Life Cycle Assessment only gives limited picture and is as good as the figures that are put in! See Blackboard and http://www.rivm.nl/Onderwerpen/Onderwerpen/L/Life_Cycle_Assessment_LCA/LCA/
Hoe_werkt_LCA
• Issues in environmental impact assessment:• Parameters under discussion related to biorenewable feedstocks:
• Calculation for different crops: context dependent (soil/efficiency)
• Calculation for indirect land use changes
• Measurement for biodiversity
• Measurement for water foot print
• Competing claims for land and resources
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… yet this should not delay development and implementation of proactive biorenewables strategies
don’t expect
conse
nsus…
don’t expect
conse
nsus…
Source: W. Sinke (ECN)
predicted global fossil CO2 emissions
Information* is incomplete and uncertain …Information* is incomplete and uncertain …
* data and scenario’s
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Economics (next lecture)
• Calculation of NPV and IRR
• Issues in economic impact assessment:• Effect of policies
• Effect of markets, new usage of resources
• Effect of alternatives (cheap shale gas!)
• Effect of time scales for investment and learning effects
• Effect of context: logistics!
• Effect of collaboration in the chain
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Social factors
• Employment (along the whole chain)• Food security (local versus global effects)• Social well being (local communities and national increase)
Issues in social impact assessment:• Food prices: speculation? land use? local storage facilities?
• Employment: availability of training & education
• Cultural issues: traditions, practises, motivation for change!
• Ethical issues: moral frameworks (worldviews), acceptance of tech
applications, equity in distribution of wealth
• Infrastructure: availability of organisation structures such as cooperatives
• Governance: communication, perception, involvement, trust
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Landgrab
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Stakeholder’s visual social representations of a Bio-Based Economy
Represented in themata of:SustainabilityFirst generation biofuelsProcess and its products Consequences
Emotionally objectified:+ Hope, enthusiasm, compassion- Fear, anger, frustrationRepresentation depends on stakeholder and context
‘aim to make something unfamiliar familiar even unfamiliarity itself’ (Moscovici 1984)
Sleenhoff, S. & P. Osseweijer (2013) What is a bio-based economy? A study of visual social representations of a bio-based economy (forthcoming)
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Outline
• What is ‘sustainability’?
• Factors of sustainability and its measurement
• Reporting sustainability
• Importance of sustainability proposition
• Elements of a successful pitch
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Top 5 indicators for sustainability in industry *
* Olenyi, Based on interviews, comparative study. Forthcoming
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Preliminary results*, certification and labelling
•Of the low percentage of certified biofuels, social criteria play a minor role
•Industry representative priorities on environmental, not social aspects
•Sustainability attitudes and certification might follow media hypes and stakeholder pressure instead of scientific priorities (e.g. biodiversity seems underrepresented)
* S. Olenyi, Based on interviews and public survey, comparative study. Forthcoming
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Reporting sustainability
• https://www.globalreporting.org/resourcelibrary/G3.1-Quick-Reference-Sheet.pdf
• 50 criteria with indicators on how to measure
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Outline
• What is ‘sustainability’?
• Factors of sustainability and its measurement
• Reporting sustainability
• Importance of sustainability proposition
• Elements of a successful pitch
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Sustainability: a major player?
• Sustainability is a complex issue• High level of uncertainty and difficult to measure
• Hence: Perceptions can be major show-stopper• Examples are: Barendrecht CO2 storage and discussion
on biofuels blending rates in biofuels
• Risk of innovation and investment!
• Trust is a large component
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Example from NGO Oxfam Novib
Practice:
•Sustainability criteria, such as Cramer criteria not used by politicians and companies
•Agreements incl RSB only marginally implemented
•Volume of advanced (2nd generation) biofuels disappointing
•Climate effect worse than expected
ACTION!
Oxfam Novib: started campaign* “EU Biofuel target could feed 127 M people!”
* http://www.oxfam.com
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Challenges on policies: public support
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What do we know about support? Microsociety 2030: a public qualititative study (NL)
* Van der Veen et al., My2030s, Burgers over de Biobased Economy, 2013
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Conclusions
•Complex science•High level of uncertainty & predictability•Social indicators are important•Science and techno fixes not always trusted•Different worldviews > define support•Different emotions > define perceptions
Insight can:stimulate self-reflexivity among stakeholdersPave way to common support facilitate more reflexive policy-making
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Outline
• What is ‘sustainability’?
• Factors of sustainability and its measurement
• Reporting sustainability
• Importance of sustainability proposition
• Elements of a successful pitch
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Criteria of sustainability•Production/use of resources;+ what are the consequences/replacements?
•Sustainability of the process
•Employment
•Quality
•Costs
•Safety, in production and use
•Moral acceptability
•Public Acceptance
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Criteria of sustainability•Sustainability of the process
Raw materials: production, soil quality, N/P balances, GHG, …
CO2, waste streams and their re-use, water, energy, transport,…
Products: transport, storage, use, end-of-life/recycling,…
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See A. Straathof; BPI, Oct 2012
L. Luo, E. van der Voet en G. Huppes, Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Reviews, 13 (2009) 1613-1619
Blackbaord
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And… beyond Life Cycle Assessment
http://www.ecospheres.com/ecostep.html
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But: not so easy
• Competing claims
• Missing facts
• Perceptions and myths
and…
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Back to economics!
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Understanding is importantand marketing is key!
• Make an overall proposition on sustainability• Calculate as best as possible• Integrate all arguments in ‘design proposition’• Present it in an understandable way
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Include in your design• Evaluation of impact assessment
Include: • Economic proposition• Environmental proposition• Social proposition
Evaluate the relevant importance your design makes for each of the three aspects (focus on the key changers!)
Support this with arguments (and calculations!). The better your argument and the better the quality of your calculations, the higher the trust!
Make sure you have taken notice of unacceptable conditions (such as safety!)
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Conclusions
• Design can and should be sustainable, not more expensive
• Sustainability should be made justifiable, the process calculated as well as possible, but the overall sustainability can not be measured!
• Trust-confidence in your proposition is key!