Global Adaptation Index™ (“GaIn™”)

Measuring What MattersCarnegie Moscow Center

Moscow, Russia | November 9, 2011

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Photo courtesy: Oxfam

International

Photo courtesy: ugraland

The Adaptation Challenge •The world is changing

•Mitigation is not working …

•Adaptation is essential and urgent

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The Institute

•Formed in 2010

•First major organization to focus exclusively on adaptation

•Nonprofit, nonpartisan & private sector led

The Global Adaptation Institute is a non-profit organization guided by a vision of building resilience

to climate change and other global forces as a key component to sustainable development.

Our mission is to enhance the world’s understanding of the urgency for adaptation to climate change and

other global forces and for the support needed through private and public investments for

developing countries.

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Our Work

•Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)

•Demonstration projects

•Education and outreach

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Photo courtesy: Oxfam International

These Investments Are Not Optional

•Urbanization, population growth and economic development will and should continue

•Failure to adapt will lead to an increase in losses

•We are already suffering an ‘adaptation deficit’

Percentage of global population affected by climate-related disasters

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database – www.emdat.be, Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels (Belgium)

Trend line

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These Investments Are Not Optional•$30-100 billion USD per year needed in adaptation investments for developing countries

•Current flows to developing countries <$1 billion USD per year

Adaptation Investment Gap

1. Allocation estimate is an Institute summation of 2011 annual adaptation allocations by the UNFCCC, World Bank and Global Environment Facility. 2. Parry et al. “Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change.” Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College, London and International Institute for Environment and Development (UK). 2009 3. The World Bank Group. “The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change.” 2010

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World totalDeveloping countries

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Most Investment Needs to Come from the Private Sector

•Governments must facilitate private sector action through appropriate public policies

•Greater commitment from UNFCCC and multilaterals on adaptation

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The Readiness Matrix™

•Information to assist private, public and NGO actors in identifying threats and opportunities

•Rigorous tool to help prioritize investments

•Simple, iconic index to guide governments on how best to “move the needle”

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Global Adaptation

Index (“GaIn”)

•A navigation tool to prioritize and measure progress in adapting to climate change

•Relevant to governments, NGOs, international institutions and the private sector

•Extensive process to develop, test and review

Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)

State of the World on Adaptation

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Criteria for Selecting Metrics

and GaIn

Consultation

•Vulnerability

•Readiness

•Criteria for selecting metrics Transparent and Authoritative sources Open Access Structured and modular Actionable Temporal (data tracked through time) Scalable

Several hundred metrics considered 38 indicators in current version Over 100,000 items of data go into GaIn

Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)

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Vulnerability Measures

•Currently 24 measures

•Quantity and Quality measures for core sectors

Sector Exposure Sensitivity Capacity

Water

Food

Health

Infrastructure

Coastal Energy

Transport

Legend

Quantitative

Qualitative

Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)

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Vulnerability Measures

•Readily expandable

•Modular design is adaptable to include different inputs

Sector Exposure Sensitivity Capacity

Water

Food

Health

Ecosystem Services1

Infrastructure

Coastal Energy

Transport Urban (Public)1

Informal Settlements1

Legend

Quantitative

Qualitative 1. Possible indicators for inclusion in future versions of GaIn

Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)

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Vulnerability Indicators

1. Indicators are taken from the Index of Economic Freedom (IEF) with permission from The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal. 2. Indicators taken from World Governance Indicators (WGI) with permission from the World Bank.3. Taken from International Telecommunication Union data with permission from the United Nations. 4. Taken from World Development Indicators with permission form the World Bank

Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)

Component Indicator

Economic1

Business freedomTrade freedomFiscal FreedomGovernment SpendingMonetary FreedomInvestment FreedomFinancial Freedom

Governance2

Voice & Accountability

Political Stability & Non-Violence

Control of Corruption

Social

Mobiles per 100 persons3

Labor Freedom1

Tertiary Education4

Rule of Law2

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Readiness Indicators

•Currently 14 measures

Testing the Indices

•Group countries into blocks of similar GaIn Vulnerability

•Calculate the proportion of their population affected by a climate disaster (1985-2009)

•GaIn Vulnerability and recent climate risk appear to be related

Does the GaIn Vulnerability score relate to the impacts of recent

disasters?

Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)

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The Rankings

Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)

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Who’s on Top?

Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)

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Lowest Ranks?

Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)

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Improvements

•The readiness and vulnerability scores are obviously correlated, but there is a scatter of countries across the Readiness Matrix

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Readiness Matrix 2009The Readiness Matrix

Vu

lnera

bil

ity

•Richness in interpretation of the time series information

GaIn performance over time (1995 - 2010)

Readiness Low High

Low

Hig

h

Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)

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Recent Performance

•Direct measures of income or wealth were avoided in deriving GaIn

•Nevertheless, still highly correlated

Vulnerability compared with GDP per capita

1. Logarithm of the Gross Domestic Product per capita (in units of 2005 USD) adjusted for purchasing power parity

Increasing wealth

Incr

easi

ng

vu

lnera

bil

ity

Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)

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Ln(GDP[PPP]) per cap1

All countries (1995 – 2010)

Vulnerability and Poverty

Income Adjusted

Global Adaptation Index (“GaIn”)

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The Rankings

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Roles for the Public Sector

•Understand greatest needs for the most vulnerable

•Determine most efficient use of resources

•Understand relative urgencies

•Remove impediments to action by public and private sector

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Roles for the Private Sector

•New products & services

•Risk mitigation

•Corporate Social Responsibility

•Ecosystem & environmental markets

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Demonstration Projects

•Over 270 projects identified

•10 projects profiled for discussion of potential for private sector engagement

•Currently, a significant lack of purely private sector-led adaptation initiatives

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Project Selection Criteria

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Linking Projects to GaIn

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Partnering with the Institute

•Advisory Council

•Council of Scientific Advisors

•Director and Trustee level of support

• Global Adaption Index

• Demonstration Projects

• Outreach

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THANK YOU!

• Questions?

Please contact:Dr. Ian Noble Chief Scientistnoble.adapt@gmail.com (202) 559-4540

Dr. Bruno Sanchez-Andrade Nuño Director of Science & Technologybrunosan@globalai.org(202) 559-4541

Global Adaptation Institute1747 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Suite 1125

Washington, DC 200061-202-559-4549

www.globalai.org

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