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FINAL Report

Glen Abbey Golf Club Redevelopment Commercial/Retail Market Review & Impact Study

Prepared for ClubLink Corporation ULC and ClubLink Holdings Limited

by IBI Group

October 31, 2016

IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT GLEN ABBEY GOLF CLUB REDEVELOPMENT COMMERCIAL/RETAIL MARKET REVIEW & IMPACT STUDY Prepared for ClubLink Corporation ULC and ClubLink Holdings Limited

Table of Contents

October 31, 2016 i

1 Introduction and Findings ................................................................................................. 1

1.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1

1.2 Summary of Findings ............................................................................................... 1

2 Background and Context ................................................................................................... 3

2.1 Development Concept ............................................................................................. 4

3 Commercial Policy Review ................................................................................................ 7

3.1 Core Commercial ..................................................................................................... 7

3.2 Community Commercial ........................................................................................... 7

3.3 Neighbourhood Commercial .................................................................................... 7

3.4 Other Areas with Commercial Permissions ............................................................. 8

3.5 North Oakville Secondary Plan Areas ..................................................................... 9

3.6 Commercial/Retail Needs Studies ......................................................................... 10

3.6.1 Retail and Service Commercial Policy Review (2006) .............................. 10

3.6.2 Policy Discussion Paper – Commercial Uses (2010) ............................... 11

3.6.3 Livable Oakville MCR – Employment & Commercial Review (2016 - Ongoing) ................................................................................................... 12

3.6.4 Current Town of Oakville Commercial Supply Assessment ..................... 12

3.6.5 Town of Oakville Forecasted Future Demand/Supply .............................. 13

4 Forecasted Population and Commercial Space ............................................................ 17

4.1 Forecasted Population Growth – Town of Oakville ............................................... 17

4.2 Forecasted Commercial Growth – Town of Oakville ............................................. 17

5 Glen Abbey Golf Club Redevelopment Retail/Service Space Requirements ............. 19

5.1 Commercial Inventory in the Immediate Area........................................................ 20

6 Recent Trends in Retail .................................................................................................... 22

IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT GLEN ABBEY GOLF CLUB REDEVELOPMENT COMMERCIAL/RETAIL MARKET REVIEW & IMPACT STUDY Prepared for ClubLink Corporation ULC and ClubLink Holdings Limited

Table of Contents (continued)

October 31, 2016 ii

List of Figures

Figure 1 - Site Location .................................................................................................................. 3

Figure 2 - Subject Site – Official Plan Land Use ............................................................................ 4

Figure 3 - Concept Plan for a Mixed-Use Redevelopment October 4, 2016 ................................. 4

Figure 4 - Development Concept - Mixed Use Components ......................................................... 5

Figure 5 - Concept Plan Breakdown .............................................................................................. 6

Figure 6 - North Oakville Employment & Commercial Areas ......................................................... 9

Figure 7 - Recent North Oakville Commercial Construction ........................................................ 10

Figure 8 - Retail Study Areas ....................................................................................................... 12

Figure 9 - Areas with Commercial Permissions ........................................................................... 15

Figure 10 - Immediate Commercial Inventory .............................................................................. 20

Figure 11 - Examples of Neighbourhood Commercial in Study Area .......................................... 20

Figure 12 - Examples of Core Commercial in the Study Area ..................................................... 21

List of Appendices

Appendix A: Terms of Reference

Appendix B: Proximate Retail Inventory

IBI GROUP FINAL REPORT

GLEN ABBEY GOLF CLUB REDEVELOPMENT

COMMERCIAL/RETAIL MARKET REVIEW & IMPACT STUDY


October 31, 2016 1

1 Introduction and Findings

1.1 Introduction

This retail market review provides an overview of the Town of Oakville’s retail policies and

hierarchy along with the retail context proximate to the proposed redevelopment of the Glen

Abbey Golf Club. This study also considers a square foot (sf) per capita analysis of the proposed

retail component to understand the potential demand for retail in the broader community. A high

level review component of Town-wide supply and demand is completed as part of a review of

the Employment and Commercial Review of the ongoing Municipal Comprehensive Review.

Finally a brief review of recent trends in the retail market and development industry is completed

to inform discussions regarding future retail demand for the town and region-wide.

This study uses the Terms of Reference for the Market Impact Study, available on the Town of

Oakville’s Development Application Guidelines/Terms of Reference website, as a guide to the

methodology. (See Appendix A)

1.2 Summary of Findings

The following provides a summary of the key findings of the retail/commercial market review.

The proposed redevelopment of Glen Abbey Golf Club includes a mix of

residential units, and commercial development (retail, service and office) on

the first and second floors of the mixed use buildings.

The proposed retail component is 62,900 sf, located in the ground floor of

five mixed use buildings, ranging from 6,000 sf to 20,000 sf.

The anticipated types of uses which will occupy the space will range from

2,000 to 4,000 sf and will service the local residents, visitors and other

businesses. A potential list of retail and service uses for the commercial

component is located in Section 2.1.

A separate town-wide commercial analysis done as part of the Municipal

Comprehensive Review, suggests that there will be a shortfall of 76,000 sm

(820,000 sf) commercial space based on current supply and demand until

2041. (See Section 3.6.3)

The same analysis suggests that the flexibility inherent in the North Oakville

Secondary Plan policies may lead to a greater shortfall as commercial

development may not be built to the extent that is required.

A square foot per capita analysis conducted for the proposed redevelopment

of the Glen Abbey Golf Club demonstrates that there is sufficient market

support/population for the proposed commercial component of the

redevelopment.

The existing commercial space in the immediate area of Glen Abbey is a mix

of Neighbourhood Commercial, and Core Commercial located at the

intersection of QEW and Dorval Drive. The Neighbourhood retail is

predominantly located in existing low density neighbourhoods.

There are a number of trends including e-commerce, Omnichannel shopping,

redevelopment of obsolete malls and the incorporation of retail in mixed use





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developments that are impacting the size, format and type of retail that is

being developed and is anticipated in the future.

The retail/service/office space proposed as part of the Glen Abbey Golf Club

redevelopment will be sufficient to service the immediate local community,

and will not impact the viability or planned function of existing or future

neighbouring retail.





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2 Background and Context

The site is located in the Glen Abbey community located in the west area of the Town of

Oakville. The site is bordered by Upper Middle Rd. W to the north, Sixteen Mile Creek to the

east, Dorval Drive to the south and low density residential developments to the west. The site is

currently the location of the 18-hole, 230 acre Glen Abbey Golf Course. The course has been

host of the Canadian Open 27 times and is owned by Clublink Corporation ULC and ClubLink

Holdings Limited. In addition to the golf course, there is a clubhouse with a restaurant, banquet

and meeting room facilities located near the 18th hole.

The historic RayDor Estate building is the home of Golf Canada, the Canadian Golf Museum

and Hall of Fame, and the TaylorMade Performance Lab. The building is excluded from the

current development proposal.

The site is designated Private Open Space and Natural Area in the current Official Plan, and

Residential Areas in the Urban Structure Plan. The site is surrounded by residential uses to the

south, west and north, and to the east of Sixteen Mile Creek.

Figure 1 - Site Location





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Figure 2 - Subject Site – Official Plan Land Use

2.1 Development Concept

Figure 3 - Concept Plan for a Mixed-Use Redevelopment October 4, 2016

The concept plan is for the proposed redevelopment of the Glen Abbey Golf Club which will offer

a variety of housing types, including singles, buffering the existing residential area, town homes





October 31, 2016 5

and stacked townhomes, and apartment units. In total, there are 3,222 proposed residential

units, parkland, the preservation of the RayDor Estate (not part of this application) and a series

of trails.

Figure 4 - Development Concept - Mixed Use Components

The proposed redevelopment of the Glen Abbey Golf Club will also feature Neighbourhood

Commercial-type retail and a service commercial component to service local convenience

needs. This space will be located in the ground floor of the mixed use buildings, and offer a

number of flexible configurations, with a proposed maximum contiguous space of 4,000 sf (460

sm), in order to provide a variety of services for the immediate community.

Located in the proposed mixed use buildings, there is a total of 62,900 sf of retail and service

commercial space proposed in the concept plan. This space will be marketed to local–serving

retail and service businesses, and will be pedestrian-oriented. In addition, 58,500 sf of ground

floor and second floor office space will be above the retail space.

Proposed types of users anticipated to locate in the commercial and office space include:

Specialty food stores or convenience stores;

Cafes and small scale restaurants;

Miscellaneous retail stores (e.g. gifts, florist);

Apparel stores;

Daycares and tutoring;

Satellite banks and pharmacies;

Pet stores and groomers;

Personal services such as salons, dry cleaners and yoga studios;

Professional services such as lawyers, accountants and real estate offices; and

Local medical services such as doctors, dentists, physiotherapists and chiropractors.

It is anticipated that the commercial units will be between 2,000 sf and 4,000 sf per unit,

depending on the use. There are no large scale food or retail uses planned on site, nor will there

be any drive-through facilities. It is anticipated that the scale of the commercial development,





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and the types of retail/services offered, will draw predominantly from the new residential

population created on the Glen Abbey site.

Figure 5 - Concept Plan Breakdown

Glen Abbey Development Components

Units/GFA Non-Residential Breakdown GFA (sf)

Block 3

Low Density 141 Retail Area 19,626

Medium Density 299 Office Area 19,626

High Density 2,782 Block 4

Total Units 3,222 Retail Area 4,132

Office Area 0

Service/Office 62,871 Block 5

Retail 58,429 Retail Area 6,865

Total Non-Residential 121,300 Office Area 0

Block 6

Retail Area 24,963

Office Area 24,963

Block 19

Retail Area 7,285

Office Area 13,848

Non-Residential Summary

Retail Area 62,871

Office Area 58,437

Total

Residential Units

Non-Residential (sf)





October 31, 2016 7

3 Commercial Policy Review

The Town of Oakville has a number of policies which address commercial development, their

location, uses and size. The following section will review current policies, existing and planned

retail/commercial areas and recent commercial studies conducted for the Town of Oakville.

The Livable Oakville, the 2009 Official Plan, applies to all lands excluding the North Oakville

Secondary Plan areas and the lands north of Highway 407. The Plan identifies six growth areas,

which are anticipated to have commercial development to support new residential populations.

There are currently three land use designations primarily for retail (commercial) uses:

Core Commercial;

Community Commercial; and

Neighbourhood Commercial.

3.1 Core Commercial

These lands “provide major concentrations of commercial facilities serving the broader regional

community”. (OP 13.3) They are located at the intersections of major arterial roads, with

proximity to highway access.

Permitted land uses include:

Retail and service uses including restaurants, food stores and motor vehicle

service stations;

Large format retail, retail warehouse, entertainment and recreational; and

Secondary function such as office and motor vehicle repair.

There are currently four areas with the core commercial designation in Oakville. All are located

in close proximity to a highway interchange and are some of the largest concentrations of

commercial permissions, and retail Gross Floor Area (GFA).

3.2 Community Commercial

These lands are intended to provide “a variety of retail and service commercial uses primarily

servicing the local surrounding community.” (OP 13.4) These lands are located at the

intersection of arterial roads or arterial and collector roads.

Permitted land uses include retail and service uses including restaurants, food stores and motor

vehicle service stations. Uses are to be developed in a nodal configuration, and are encouraged

to provide and maintain a food store as part of the node; and development “shall provide as a

grouping of retail and service commercial uses occupying a single site and/or functioning as a

single site with shared access, design, parking and landscaping”. (OP 13.4.5)

3.3 Neighbourhood Commercial

Lands designated Neighbourhood Commercial are intended to provide retail and service

commercial uses “primarily to service local convenience needs of the adjacent neighbourhoods.”

(OP 13.5) These uses are to be located on collector roads, or at the intersection of a collector

and arterial road with access to a local neighbourhood.





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Permitted land uses include:

A range of retail and service commercial including restaurants and food stores;

Residential permitted above ground floor retail; and

Office only as a secondary function and small in scale.

Additional policies pertain to Neighbourhood Commercial uses, including that these areas “shall

not exceed a maximum of 2,500 SM of floor area in retail and service commercial uses.” (OP

13.5.2) Development will be a maximum of 2 storeys, and consist of small groupings of retail and

service commercial uses in one or more buildings.

3.4 Other Areas with Commercial Permissions

Commercial development is also permitted in the Central Business District, as a part of mixed

use buildings within North Oakville, and the six identified Growth Areas. The Central Business

District is planned to serve the downtown centre as a main street, and provide community

shopping facilities to surrounding communities. This area is intended to include some retail and

service commercial intensification. Permitted uses include restaurants, retail and service

functions that are appropriate to a main street. Offices, hotels, entertainment facilities may also

be permitted. (OP Sec. 13.2)

The six identified Growth Areas are generally currently built out, but have policies to encourage

increased densities through mixed use. The areas considered Growth Areas are:

Midtown Oakville (Trafalgar Rd and the QEW);

Kerr Village (Kerr Street and Speers Road);

Bronte Village (Bronte Road and Lakeshore Blvd); and

Downtown Oakville (Lakeshore Blvd and Trafalgar Rd).

The Uptown Core, located at Dundas Street and Sixth Line (Central Area), is also a Growth Area

and is intended to be the focus of a new mixed use development and redevelopment with

emphasis on residential, office and commercial development. The Main Street District is planned

to be redeveloped with a mix of retail and service commercial uses on the ground floor with

residential and/or office uses above. (OP. 21.3.4)

Also a Growth Area, Palermo Village, at Dundas Street and Bronte Road, is to have “a clearly

defined main street with commercial development oriented to Old Bronte Road and Khalsa Gate”

(OP. 22.2.2 iv). Stand-alone retail and service commercial buildings are not allowed to exceed a

gross floor area of 6,000 sm (65,000 sf). In addition, Palermo Village extends into North Oakville,

and is included in the Palmero Village North Urban Core Area which has commercial

permissions and is included in a review of the commercial supply in North Oakville.





October 31, 2016 9

3.5 North Oakville Secondary Plan Areas

Figure 6 - North Oakville Employment & Commercial Areas

The current North Oakville Secondary Plan Area (NOS East and West) are separate from

Livable Oakville, and have their own land use designations. There is currently no exclusive land

use that only permits retail and service commercial, instead, these uses are permitted in a

variety of forms in various designations, but in particular in the “Urban Core Areas” which are

planned for the densest development, and high order activities. Land use permissions include a

range of residential, retail and service commercial, entertainment, cultural business and

institutional uses. These uses are anticipated to come in a mixed-use format.

There are four areas designated as “Urban Core Areas”

Trafalgar Road Urban Core Area;

Dundas Street Urban Core Area;

Neyagawa Blvd. Urban Core Area; and

Palermo Village North Urban Core Area.

Limited retail will also be permitted in employment areas.

North Oakville is currently undergoing development, and new commercial uses are being

constructed, predominantly on the north side of Dundas Street. The new residential population

in North Oakville will drive demand for increased commercial uses, which are to be developed

predominantly in a mixed used format.





October 31, 2016 10

Figure 7 - Recent North Oakville Commercial Construction

At buildout, North Oakville is expected to accommodate a population of 55,000 residents and

35,000 jobs.

3.6 Commercial/Retail Needs Studies

3.6.1 Retail and Service Commercial Policy Review (2006)

The Town of Oakville commissioned a Commercial Policy Review conducted by urbanMetrics in

2006. While the study is dated, its findings still have some relevance to the current retail context

in Oakville. The study was conducted in three phases, the first phase was an analysis of the

future warranted commercial space in Oakville, the second phase provided a review of the

Town’s existing commercial policies, and the final phase presented the findings and

recommendations. The work included public consultations, a telephone survey, a review of

existing and potential commercial inventory and a retail demand model which forecasted future

space requirements.

The study had a number of conclusions:

Oakville businesses rely heavily on expenditures from neighbouring municipalities, in

particular Mississauga, due to the proximity of major commercial nodes to the QEW or

Town borders.

Oakville’s residents have high outflow on apparel and home furnishings to surrounding

areas.

Future growth in Oakville after 2021, with the exception of infill and intensification, is

expected to occur north of Dundas Street.

Income and expenditure levels are well above the Provincial average.

By 2021, the population and expenditure growth will support an additional 3.8 to 4.2

million sf of commercial space in the Town.

The largest projected space is in three clusters; The RioCan Power Centre, Palermo

Village, and Uptown Core, and the majority of this space will be in power centres or part

of retail clusters around power centres. There will be additional arterial commercial

development and some limited accessory and convenience retail and service

commercial.





October 31, 2016 11

Upon the completion of committed and proposed commercial projects, Oakville will have

six major commercial nodes:

o Downtown Oakville

o Oakville Place

o Palermo Village

o Burloak

o Winston Park

o The Uptown Core and Vicinity

There is a residual uncommitted space of between 400,000 to 900,000 sf, which should

be reserved for expansion of existing centres and nodes, accommodation of space in

employment and arterial areas, lower order centres in new growth areas, and

commercial components of mixed use projects

The urbanMetrics report provides information on retail/service sf per capita estimates. The

report noted an increasing trend from 1994 of 37.5 sf/capita to 38.1 sf/capita (2004). The

forecast included in the report reflects a 2021 metric of 43 sf/capita.

3.6.2 Policy Discussion Paper – Commercial Uses (2010)

This paper was prepared as part of the Livable Oakville work plan; it reviewed the findings from

the previous reports, addresses conformity with the Growth Plan, and makes recommended

changes to the existing Official Plan related to commercial permissions. The report summarizes

the analysis completed as part of the 2006 Retail and Service Commercial Policy Review.

At the time, the existing Official Plan had a traditional hierarchy of commercial centres and six

commercial land use designations, including an identification of trade area to be served. The

previous study noted the evolution of retail in Oakville, and the mismatch of some of the area

labels with the current function.

In 2010, the Town’s goal for commercial sites was for each community to develop areas of retail,

and the Town to continue with a flexible approach to commercial planning; restructuring current

designations to simplify the current hierarchy, yet maintain the centre-nodal approach.

New space should be focused on the expansion and intensification of existing nodes, in order to

use existing infrastructure. Re-designation of lands for new commercial sites is not

recommended, as North Oakville will provide new commercial areas.

The report recommended changes to the Official Plan, to strengthen and clarify the current

commercial hierarchy, including recognizing mixed-use policies.

Central Business District – pedestrian oriented design that allows for a mix of uses to

maintain the viability and vitality of the area.

Core Commercial – Formerly Regional Shopping Centre – located at major highway and

arterial intersections. Services the surrounding community and parts of the surrounding

region (sub-regional market role).

Community Commercial – located at the intersection of arterial roads to ensure

accessibility (car and transit) and visibility. Group retail and service commercial functions

on a single site. Serve the surrounding community and the local neighbourhood.

Neighbourhood Commercial – Provide a range of retail and service commercial uses to

adjacent neighbourhoods and providing local retail functions. Limits in lot size, with a

range of floor space between 186 to 2,300 sm.





October 31, 2016 12

Figure 8 - Retail Study Areas

The report also recommended that the Town of Oakville monitor changes in commercial space.

An inventory was provided as part of the Retail and Service Commercial Policy Review Phase 1

(2006) and the 2010 discussion paper recommended it should be continued.

3.6.3 Livable Oakville MCR – Employment & Commercial Review (2016 - Ongoing)

As part of the current Municipal Comprehensive Review (MCR), the Town is completing an

Employment and Commercial Review. The Study is currently in Phase 3: Preliminary Findings &

Recommendations”. This town-wide review is intended to assess the Town’s ability to

accommodate long-term employment and commercial needs.

The Employment and Commercial Review: Commercial Report, by Dillon Consulting1 was

published in July 2016. This report addresses the Town’s evolving commercial areas, including

changing consumer demands, new greenfields and established areas such as Downtown

Oakville. In order to ensure that the Town’s commercial areas remain competitive, economic

trends and consumer demand patterns were addressed within the current policy planning

framework.

The report included field inspections, a detailed commercial market demand analysis, and

consumer research. The report includes:

A review and assessment of retail trends in Ontario;

Study Area Delineation (three areas);

Inventory of Existing Commercial/Retail and Service Space;

Consumer Research;

Population and Expenditure Forecast;

Retail Space Market Demand Analysis;

Service Space Opportunities Analysis; and

Estimate of Commercial/Retail Land Needs.

3.6.4 Current Town of Oakville Commercial Supply Assessment

The Commercial Report has delineated the Town of Oakville into three geographic Retail Study

Areas. The Glen Abbey site is in the Northwest Zone, but is in close proximity to the other areas.

1 In Collaboration with: Watson& Associates Economists Ltd., Tate Economic Research Inc. and SGL Planning and Design Inc.





October 31, 2016 13

The report included an inventory of retail space in Oakville, which was undertaken in 2014. It

determined that there was approximately 8,900,000 sf of retail, service and vacant space in the

Town of Oakville.

The results of the inventory demonstrate that the current commercial/retail space is unevenly

distributed throughout the town, with South Oakville, which has the three Main Street Growth

Areas, Downtown, Kerr Village and Bronte Village having over one-half of the total supply based

on Gross Floor Area (GFA).

On a per capita basis, Northwest Oakville, where the subject site is located, has the lowest

supply, as well as having the lowest total GFA. Overall, Oakville has 48 sm per capita of

commercial (retail/service) space.

3.6.5 Town of Oakville Forecasted Future Demand/Supply2

The Commercial Report summarizes the forecast demand for additional retail and service space

for the Town of Oakville. This forecast is detailed by major category, and is completed for 2021,

2031 and 2041. Overall the forecast is for 3 million square feet of warranted new space by

2 Note: the population projections used to determine this forecast do not align with the current DCBS

Oakville Existing Retail Structure (2014)

Type Area (sf)*

Total FOR space (1) 1,000,000

Total NFOR space (2) 3,800,000

Other Retail and Service Oriented Uses 3,800,000

Vacant 400,000

Total Retail, service and vacant space 9,000,000

Source: Employment and Commercial Review: Commercial Report. Dillon Consulting (July 2016)

(1) FOR is comprised of the following categories: Supermarkets & Other Grocery Stores; Convenience Stores; and Specialty

Food Stores

(2) NFOR is comprised of the following categories: Department Stores; General Merchandise; Clothing & Accessories;

Future, Home Furnishings & Electronics; Pharmacies & Personal Care; Building & Outdoor Home Supplies; Miscellaneous

Retailers and Automotive Parts, Accessories & Tire stores

Oakville Existing Retail by Area and SF per Capita

Area Space (sf)* SF per Capita

South Oakville 4,600,000 70.8

Northwest Oakville 1,200,000 20.8

Northeast Oakville 3,000,000 48.4

Total Oakville 47.8

* Rounded

Source: Employment and Commercial Review: Commercial Report. Dillon Consulting (July 2016) p. 50





October 31, 2016 14

2031, and an additional 600,000 from 2031 to 2041. This future demand includes a 5% vacancy

contingency across the entire supply.

Commercial Demand Analysis Summary

Inventory Base

Retail Space by Major Category 2014 2021 2031 2041

Department Store 536,900 86,000 216,000 260,000

Building & Outdoor Home Supply 598,900 72,000 164,000 193,000

Canadian Tire 248,100 43,000 90,000 109,000

Warehouse Membership Club (e.g. Costco) n/a 140,000 140,000 140,000

Other General Merchandise 64,000 14,000 37,000 44,000

Pharmacies & Personal Care 288,700 49,000 122,000 153,000

Other Non-Food Related Retail 2,039,300 232,000 511,000 603,000

Sub-Total Non-Food Retail 3,775,900 636,000 1,280,000 1,502,000

Supermarket 797,100 121,000 258,000 282,000

Other Food 203,300 29,000 67,000 75,000

Sub-Total Food Retail 1,000,400 150,000 325,000 357,000

Other Retail & Service 3,758,700 460,000 1,104,000 1,420,000

Vacancy Space Contingency (5%) 318,000 136,000 213,000 243,000

Total Existing Space 8,913,900

Warranted New Space 1,382,000 2,922,000 3,522,000

Plus Existing Space 8,913,900 8,913,900 8,913,900

Total Existing and Warranted New Space 10,295,900 11,835,900 12,435,900

Source: Employment and Commercial Review: Commercial Report. Dillon Consulting (July 2016) - TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. p. 73

Forecast Year

Breakdown of Forecasted Demand by Type to 2031

FOR 325,000

NFOR 1,300,000

Other Retail and Service 1,100,000

Vacancy Contingency 213,000

Total 2,938,000

Source: Employment and Commercial Review:

Commercial Report. Dillon Consulting (July 2016) -

TATE ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC. p. 73-74





October 31, 2016 15

Figure 9 - Areas with Commercial Permissions

According to the Commercial Report, the Town has approximately 2.7 million square feet of

vacant commercial designated lands, including vacant lands in North Oakville. The assessment

of potential commercial space indicates that the majority of the space is located in the Trafalgar

Urban Core, with additional opportunities in South Oakville, the Dundas and Neyagawa Urban

Core and Palermo Village However, the report acknowledges that some of the vacant

commercial lands, especially those south of Dundas have characteristics that may “limit or

reduce the attractiveness of these sites for commercial development.”

Total Town-Wide Vacant Commercial Designated Space Available

Area Space (sf) Description

Trafalgar Urban Core Area 1,001,016 retail and service

Dundas Urban Core Area 344,436 retail

226,036 service

-150,691 built

Neyagawa Urban Core Area 333,672 retail

226,036 service

Palermo Village North Urban Core Area 75,345 retail

Potential on Vacant Land in South Oakville 645,817 retail

Total 2,701,666

Source: Employment and Commercial Review: Commercial Report. Dillon Consulting (July 2016) p. 80





October 31, 2016 16

Reconciling the projected supply and demand results in a shortfall of 820,000 sf in commercial

space. Using a 30% coverage ratio, this would result in a shortfall of 25 hectares of lands for

commercial uses.3

However, the report indicates that there a number of limitations in their analysis:

The 2041 forecast which is the basis of the demand assessment is not approved;

This does not include retail/service/commercial infill and intensification opportunities;

and

They assume static trends in the retail sector.

3 Dillon Consulting. Town of Oakville Employment and Commercial Review: Executive Summary. March 2016. p. v

Oakville Supply & Demand Assessment

Area (sf)

Total Supply 2,701,666

Total Demand 2041 3,522,000

Shortfall -820,334

Source: Employment and Commercial Review: Commercial

Report. Dillon Consulting (July 2016) p. 89





October 31, 2016 17

4 Forecasted Population and Commercial Space

4.1 Forecasted Population Growth – Town of Oakville

According to the Town of Oakville’s Development Charges Background Study (DCBS) (2013),

Oakville is anticipated to grow by nearly 82,000 residents between 2012 and buildout (post-

2031). The majority of this growth is forecast to be in North Oakville.

4.2 Forecasted Commercial Growth – Town of Oakville

The Town of Oakville’s DCBS anticipates that there will be an additional 8.5 million sf (790,000

SM) of new commercial space required in Oakville by build-out. Of this, 4.7 million sf, over half,

will be located in South Oakville, which includes the Glen Abbey Community.

Again, with limited opportunities and vacant commercial lands identified in the supply, the rest

will have to be accommodated through intensification, redevelopment, and infill development.

Forecasted Population Growth by Location

DEVELOPMENT

LOCATIONTIMING

NET

POPULATION

INCREASE

2012 - 2022 29,876

2012 - 2031 41,808

2012 - Buildout 52,828

2012 - 2022 8,107

2012 - 2031 19,825

2012 - Buildout 28,954

2012 - 2022 37,984

2012 - 2031 61,634

2012 - Buildout 81,782

1. North Oakville includes area north of Dundas St.

2. South Oakville includes the communities of Bronte,

College Park, Eastlake, Glen Abbey, Iroquios Ridge North,

Midtown Core, Old Oakville, Palermo Village Centre,

Palermo West, River Oaks, Uptown Core, and Westoak

Trails.

North Oakville¹

South Oakville²

Town of Oakville

Source: Halton Region Best Planning Estimates, June 2011. Buildout

forecast derived by Watson & Asssociates Economists Ltd.





October 31, 2016 18





October 31, 2016 19

5 Glen Abbey Golf Club Redevelopment Retail/Service Space Requirements

As reviewed in Section 2.1, the retail/service and office component of the proposed

redevelopment of the Glen Abbey Golf Club is intended to predominantly service the local new

residential population. The format of the buildings, ground floor and second floor in a mixed use

building, will appeal to the local population, therefore it is anticipated the trade area for the

commercial uses on site will generally be limited to the proposed redevelopment boundaries.

As the retail will be local, or “doorstep” in nature, a square foot per capita analysis was utilized in

order to understand if there is sufficient commercial space based on the conceptual plan. As

noted earlier in the review of the 2006 urbanMetrics report, and consistent with other

municipalities, a retail/service space per capita standard in the 35 to 40 sf/capita range is

appropriate. Of this total, between 15 to 20 sf/capita tends to be convenience/service related.

The current Commercial assessment indicates that more recently the Town of Oakville is

reaching 48 sf/capita overall.

Calculations using the ground floor retail space suggest that the development as currently

proposed is just under 10 sf per capita, demonstrating that there will be a local market for the

proposed retail space.

In addition, the existing 50,000 sf RayDor Estate, which is currently fully leased, is expected to

continue in this office use, and the proposed second floor service space will provide additional

demand for convenience retail. It is estimated that there would be 340 jobs produced by the

non-residential development, and these employees would also use the retail and services

provided in the mixed use buildings.

Potential Glen Abbey Redevelopment Employment Yields

NON-RESIDENTIAL

EMPLOYMENT

TOTAL SPACE

(SF)

SF PER

EMPLOYEE

TOTAL

EMPLOYMENT

Commercial 62,871 500 126

Office (including RayDor) 108,438 500 343

Total 171,309 343

Source: Current Development Concept and Town of Oakville DCBS

Glen Abbey Population Yields

Development Concept Total Units PPU (1) Population Commercial sf sf per capita

Single Detached 141 3.48 491

Townhouse 109 2.55 278

Stacked Townhouse 190 2.55 485

Apartments 2,782 1.83 5,091

Total 3,222 6,345 62,871 9.9

(1) Adjusted 20-year average in accordance to Schedule 7 found in the Town of Oakville's 2013 DCBS





October 31, 2016 20

5.1 Commercial Inventory in the Immediate Area

Figure 10 - Immediate Commercial Inventory

Currently in the immediate area (2 km radius) of the Glen Abbey Golf Club there is 125,000 sf of

Neighbourhood Commercial space, with limited vacancy. These are generally in the format of

10,000 to 20,000 sf single storey plazas with surface parking lots. The tenants are primarily

convenience retail and professional services intended to serve the immediate residential areas.

Most of the units are generally between 2,000 and 4,000 sf.

These Neighbourhood Commercial uses are generally located in residential areas, as their

offerings appeal to a smaller area, and do not require extensive travel.

Figure 11 - Examples of Neighbourhood Commercial in Study Area





October 31, 2016 21

The area is also serviced by a number of Core Commercial Uses, which are clustered at the

intersection of Dorval Drive and the QEW. These include Dorval Crossing (East and West)

which offer nearly 485,000 sf of commercial space. The majority of the tenants are major

national retail chains, and individual units range from 5,000 sf to 30,000 sf. These Core

Commercial plazas service a larger trade area and offer supermarkets, LCBO stores, large scale

gyms, fast food with drive thrus and destination retail.

Figure 12 - Examples of Core Commercial in the Study Area

For a full list of commercial GFA in surrounding area see Appendix B.





October 31, 2016 22

6 Recent Trends in Retail

There are a number of recent trends in retail which are important in informing a discussion on

the retail market. This section provides a very high level review of some of the trends which will

impact local and regional retail. It is important to note that the majority of these trends will have

limited impact on the local-servicing retail and service businesses envisioned for the proposed

redevelopment of the Glen Abbey Golf Club.

Much discussion about retail trends has been happening regarding the rise of online shopping

and the potential impact of e-commerce on bricks and mortar retail. In fact, less than 10% of

shopping is done online.4 The majority of online spending falls in the categories of Electronics

and Entertainment.5 Although online shopping is expected to continue to grow in a number of

segments, issues around logistics, delivery challenges, also known as the “last mile”, customer

preferences and experienced based retail, means bricks and mortar stores will continue to be

needed to supply new residential populations.

Omnichannel is the multichannel approach to retail sales which attempts to provide a customer

with a seamless shopping experience no matter the venue (computer, mobile device or bricks

and mortar store). Largely driven by technology, consumers are given a number of ways to view,

review and purchase products. Omnichannel has impacted bricks and mortar stores, as

“showcasing”, or stores which offer a wide range of products on display with limited in-store

stock, have changed the types of space some retailers require. Purchases are done typically in

store or online, and products can be shipped to the store or directly to the customer.

Despite the failure of Target’s expansion into Canada, a number of American and International

chains continue to enter into the Canadian market, driving demand for spaces in malls, power

centres and along urban main streets. Some of these retailers will seek new space, and others,

such as Nordstrom’s move into the former Sears space in the CF Toronto Eaton Centre, will

backfill large scale vacancies.

Many of the new American retailers who are entering the market are considered luxury retailers.

Luxury brands focus on the brand experience and bricks and mortar space is very important to

these groups, as the majority of their sales are in person. The experience is an important part of

the purchase. These brands appeal not only to higher income customers, but also “aspirational

shoppers” who cannot afford to consistently shop at luxury stores, but will purchase luxury items

often through outlets or discount web sales.

Intensification and population growth in urban centres has driven retailers to look at urban

formats in order to service new residential populations. These new formats have been

challenging to some established retailers as the spaces are smaller and there are often

difficulties around shipping capacities and zoning. Grocery chains in particular have been driven

to examine new urban format stores as new residential population growth is increasingly seen in

the dense urban environment. Large scale retailers such as Walmart and Ikea have been

experimenting with “urban format” stores, but not without challenges.

Finally, there is a trend towards the renewal or redevelopment of older, uncompetitive

community-scale shopping centres. The high value of land in urban centres has seen the

redevelopment of some urban malls to higher density residential development with smaller retail

components. Smaller enclosed malls have also faced competition from power centres and big

box developments. Existing malls, with strong locations and trade areas, have chosen to

increase their GFA and modernize through redevelopment, retrofitting and the construction of

standalone retail pads in their existing surface parking lots in order to stay relevant.

4 7.4% in the US. JLL Report - Predicting the Future of Retail 2016 5 J.C. Williams Group – E-Commerce Path to Purchase Survey Results (2015)





Appendix A: Terms of Reference





Appendix B: Proximate Retail Inventory

Commercial Inventory within 2 kilometres of Glen Abbey Site

Name Address Radius (Max) Type Building Size (sf)* Tenants Vacancy Comments

Monastery Plaza 1133 Monastery Drive 2 km Neighbourhood 23,035

Monastery Bakery, Pizza Nova, Convenience Store, Dental

Office, Dry Cleaners Former Blockbluster

Nottinghill Place 1131 Nottinghill Gate 2 km Neighbourhood 26,156

Abbey Medical, Total Health Pharmacy, Patisserie, Ginos Pizza,

Oxford Learning n/a

1/3 of the building has second

floor office (not Inc. in GFA)

Fourth and West Oak Trails 2275 West Oaks Trail 2 km Neighbourhood 17,760

Hair Saloon, Animal Hospital, Preschool, Dance School,

Convenience Store, Doctor's office, Pilates Studio n/a

River Oaks Convenience 201 River Oaks Blvd W 2 km Neighbourhood 7,319

Hair Dresser, Mini Mart, Health Food Store, Pizza, Clothing

Alterations n/a

River Oaks 2163 Sixth Line 2 km Neighbourhood 20,021

Pharmacy and Medical Clinic, Edward Jones, Dry Cleaning,

Lawyer, Pizza, M&Ms Meats, Karate Studio n/a

Sixth and Elm 1500 Sixth Line 2 km Neighbourhood 18,944

Sixth Line Pub; Oakville Parent-Child Centre; Vito's Pizza and

Wings; n/a

River Glen Plaza 575 River Glen 2 km Neighbourhood 12,056

CML Health, Edward Jones, Dentist, Hair Salon, Orthodontist,

Chiropractor, Sushi, Dry Cleaners n/a

Oakville Gardens 1311 Sixth Line 2 km Neighbourhood 1,399 Stand Alone Variety Store n/a

126,691

Dorvall Crossing East 200 - 300 North Service Rd 2 km Core Commercial 206,303

38 stores and services; Major Tenants - Winners, Bed Bath &

Beyond; Michaels; National Sports, McDonalds Yes, one unit

Dorvall Crossing West 200 - 300 North Service Rd 2 km Core Commercial 284,447

Metro; Toys R Us; Staples, Chapters/Indigo; Pro Hockey Life;

LCBO; Goodlife Fitness (28 stores and services) Yes, one unit

Abbey Centre 223 North Service Rd. W 2 km Core Commercial 17,222

Pad Retail - Gas Station; DQ; Starbucks: Il Fornello; Allstate;

Edward Jones; Quiznos; TD Bank; Supercuts n/a

Offices at Burch Oak 243 North Service Road 2 km Core Commercial 48,390 Various office, medical

5 units - total of 9,592 sf

as per CapREIT

Canadian Tire 1100 Kerr St 2 km Core Commercial 101,934 Stand Alone with Gas Bar n/a

658,296

RayDor Estate 1333 Dorval Drive 2 km Existing GA Commercial 50,000 Canadian Golf Hall of Fame n/a

Existing Glen Abbey Commercial Subtotal 50,000

834,987

* Total Building Area estimated based on Aerial measurements

Neighbourhood Subtotal

Core Commercial Subtotal

Total Commercial Area

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