Gifted PresentationMike Nicholson, Senior Director of Research and Evaluation

Fundamental Consideration of Growth

• Growth = Observed - Baseline

Mean Gain Model• Because the prior year’s scale is consistent with the current year’s, value-added

can be figured in terms of gain.

• Though superficial observations may assume this methodology is a simple pre-test / post-test algorithm, further study of the approach reveal similar rigor as the SOAR process.

• How often do schools have students who never move or who always have complete test records?

• Students with more complete testing histories count more in the estimated yearly means.

Baseline Observed Growth

Scaled Score Units for Expressing Growth• If the distributions of achievement across grades within a

subject area are generally equivalent, then the units for reporting growth can remain in scaled scores.

– The inference is that for students to maintain their place in the distribution of achievement, no matter their starting point, the progress they would need to make is the same

Low Achiever’s needed growth to maintain position across years

High Achiever’s needed growth to maintain position across years

Normal Curve Equivalent

Fixing the Growth Standard

Student Takes Test

Test score is converted to state NCE, given the conversion values of the fixed year.

1 2 3

New NCE is compared to prior year’s NCE to estimate growth.

Growth=new NCE – prior NCE

Viewing a school report in a mean gain model

Viewing a school report in a mean gain model

Baseline

Observed

School Effect

Viewing a school report in a mean gain model

Baseline

Observed

School Effect

Upward Shed Pattern

Reverse TeePee Pattern

TeePee Pattern

Downward Shed Pattern

Copyright ©2006. Battelle for Kids.

How does a student’s growth rate compare to other groups of students?

Student Report

SAS Institute Inc.Used with permission.

School ASchool B

School D

School F

School H

School J

School L

School N

School P

School C

School E

School G

School I

School K

School M

School O

SAMPLE

Student predictions to Advanced on 5th grade OATs are based on the most information available

Gifted Hot Topics

• Ceiling Effect• Regression to the Mean• Evaluating Programming Options – Shared

instructional responsibility?• Adequately Challenging High Achieving

Students• Placement of Students / Cluster Grouping• AYP and VA are not the same thing• Etc.

How often do students score within the Top 3 Scaled Score Points two years in a Row?

Subject Students Considered

Percentage of students scoring within the top three scaled scores on OAT two years in a row

4th Gd. Reading 26,511 0.18%

4th Gd. Math 26,511 0.15%

5th Gd. Reading 26,695 0.12%

5th Gd. Math 26,695 0.21%

6th Gd. Reading 26,718 0.04%

6th Gd. Math 26,718 0.05%

7th Gd. Reading 26,699 0.04%

7th Gd. Math 26,699 0.01%

8th Gd. Reading 27,919 0.19%

8th Gd. Math 27,919 0.05%

How did the Suburban Districts Do, in particular?

• The highest percentage of students scoring within the top three scaled scores two years in a row was a little over 2%.

• Five wealthy Ohio suburban school districts had the following highest (district best) rates of students scoring within the top 3 scaled scores 2 years in a row:– District A – 2/172 (1.16%): 8th gd. Reading– District B – 7/612 (1.14%): 5th gd. Math– District C – 5/266 (1.88%): 4th gd. Math– District D – 1/77 (1.30%): 4th gd. Math– District E – 1/58 (1.72%): 5th gd. Math

– These were the highest rates these districts saw for any grade for students repeating top-3 scaled score performances across years within an OAT subject

Evaluating Gifted Programs?Need to Verify Rosters?

Demonstrating Relationship between Random Error and Observed Scores