GIB2015_Public and Private Sector Transit Development_Hughes
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Transcript of GIB2015_Public and Private Sector Transit Development_Hughes
This presentation was held during the 5th GIB
Summit, May 27-28 2015. The presentation and
more information on the Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation are available
on www.gib-foundation.org
The next GIB Summit will take place in Basel, May 24-25, 2016.
The information and views set out in this presenation are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation. Neither the Global Infrastructure Basel Foundation nor any person acting on its behalf may be held responsible for the use of the information contained therein.
The Role of the Public & Private Sectors in Transit Oriented Development
Colin K. Hughes Director of Global Policy and Project Evaluation Institute for Transportation & Development Policy May, 2015
Transporta0on: A driving force behind climate change
Transport 6,623 Mt,
23%
Power GeneraFon, 13333, 46% Industry, 4781,
17%
ResidenFal, 1877, 6%
Services, 878, 3%
Other, 1333, 5%
Global Energy-‐Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Mt)
We must change the way we travel
1.2 million Premature deaths from outdoor air pollu0on yearly
-‐World Health Organiza0on
240 minutes Average Commute for poorest quin0le ci0zens in Sao Paulo -‐ SOW, 2012
10% of GDP Wasted from Cumula0ve Impacts of Traffic -‐UNEP, 2011
1.3 million Traffic Deaths 50% of whom are walking or cycling
-‐World Health Organiza0on
We must change the way we travel
Sprawl costs the United States over $400 billion per annum
6
Sprawl costs in the United States per annum
SOURCE: Litman (2014) for New Climate Economy commissioned by LSE Ci0es. Note: these denote the poten0al savings from smart growth policies. See Litman, T., 2014 (forthcoming). Analysis of Public Policies that Uninten3onally Encourage and Subsidize Urban Sprawl for detail of underlying data sources.
Total
Billion US$
External costs: air pollu0on, conges0on, noise, others
217
90
72 31
0
100
200
300
400
500
Increased public service costs
Crash costs
Increased infrastructure capital costs
Total private costs (including travel 0me, vehicle ownership etc.) are 324 billion US$
410
We must shiP travel modes to limit climate change to 2 degrees and meet future mobility demand.
OECD Baseline High ShiP
Non-‐OECD Baseline High ShiP
GLOBAL HIGH SHIFT SCENARIO: Passenger travel by mode
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD
2010-‐2030 2010-‐2050 2010-‐2030 2010-‐2050
Base High Shift
Trillio
n US D
ollars
Infrastructure RailInfrastructure BRTInfrastructure RoadwayO&M Cycle/e-‐bikeO&M RailO&M BusO&M Private vehicleO&M Road-‐relatedFuel ElectricityFuel LDV-‐2W liquid fuelPurchase Cycle/e-‐bikePurchase RailPurchase BusPurchase Private vehicle
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD
2010-‐2030 2010-‐2050 2010-‐2030 2010-‐2050
Base High Shift
Trillio
n US D
ollars
Infrastructure RailInfrastructure BRTInfrastructure RoadwayO&M Cycle/e-‐bikeO&M RailO&M BusO&M Private vehicleO&M Road-‐relatedFuel ElectricityFuel LDV-‐2W liquid fuelPurchase Cycle/e-‐bikePurchase RailPurchase BusPurchase Private vehicle
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD
2010-‐2030 2010-‐2050 2010-‐2030 2010-‐2050
Base High Shift
Trillion US Dollars
Infrastructure RailInfrastructure BRTInfrastructure RoadwayO&M Cycle/e-‐bikeO&M RailO&M BusO&M Private vehicleO&M Road-‐relatedFuel ElectricityFuel LDV-‐2W liquid fuelPurchase Cycle/e-‐bikePurchase RailPurchase BusPurchase Private vehicle
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD
2010-‐2030 2010-‐2050 2010-‐2030 2010-‐2050
Base High Shift
Trillion US Dollars
Infrastructure RailInfrastructure BRTInfrastructure RoadwayO&M Cycle/e-‐bikeO&M RailO&M BusO&M Private vehicleO&M Road-‐relatedFuel ElectricityFuel LDV-‐2W liquid fuelPurchase Cycle/e-‐bikePurchase RailPurchase BusPurchase Private vehicle
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD
2010-‐2030 2010-‐2050 2010-‐2030 2010-‐2050
Base High Shift
Trillio
n US D
ollars
Infrastructure RailInfrastructure BRTInfrastructure RoadwayO&M Cycle/e-‐bikeO&M RailO&M BusO&M Private vehicleO&M Road-‐relatedFuel ElectricityFuel LDV-‐2W liquid fuelPurchase Cycle/e-‐bikePurchase RailPurchase BusPurchase Private vehicle
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD OECD non-‐OECD
2010-‐2030 2010-‐2050 2010-‐2030 2010-‐2050
Base High Shift
Trillio
n US D
ollars
Infrastructure RailInfrastructure BRTInfrastructure RoadwayO&M Cycle/e-‐bikeO&M RailO&M BusO&M Private vehicleO&M Road-‐relatedFuel ElectricityFuel LDV-‐2W liquid fuelPurchase Cycle/e-‐bikePurchase RailPurchase BusPurchase Private vehicle
OECD Baseline High
ShiP
Non-‐OECD Baseline High
ShiP
The required shi` in investment actually saves $114 trillion in infrastructure, fuel, and maintenance by 2050.
GLOBAL HIGH SHIFT SCENARIO: Total Investment by Mode
Tale of Two Ci0es: Transit and Density
Source: Bertaud and Richardson, 2004, Kenworthy (2003) citied in Lefevre, B. (2009); + ITDP Rapid Transit Database, 2014
Popula0on: 2.5 million Rapid Transit: 74 km Urban area: 4,280 km2
Per capita transport CO2: 7.5 t
Popula0on: 2.8 million Rapid Transit: 153 km Urban area: 162 km2
Per cap ann. transport CO2: 0.7 t
ATLANTA BARCELONA
The Cost of Transit is Dependent on Density
Rapid Transit: 125 km Metro, 27 km Light Rail Es0mated Total Rapid Transit Infrastructure Cost:
$20 billion (2014, USD)
ATLANTA BARCELONA
Rapid Transit: 74 km Metro Estimated Total Rapid Transit Infrastructure cost for same area coverage as Barcelona :
$500 billion (2014, USD)
Compact Ci0es Reduce Costs and Deliver Wide Benefits
1. Compact urban development could save China $1.4 trillion in infrastructure spending (World Bank)
2. Compact urban pathway in China could lead to higher economic growth, greater produc0vity, boost to ter0ary industry share (World Bank)
3. Transit-‐orientated development can reduce per capita car use by up to 50% and reduce costs by 20% (Arrington et al., 2008)
4. Co-‐benefits include: equitable accessibility, reduced conges0on, improved public health and safety, energy security (Arrington, et al, 2008)
5. Compact urban model in Ho Chi Minh City could reduce air pollu0on (PM2.5) by 44% (ADB, CAI, and Chreod, 2013)
6. Compact, connected urban development could reduce emissions by up to 1.5 GT by 2030 – primarily from transport (LSE Ci0es, 2014)
The Role of Government • In the EU it is infrastructure investment: The EU has more funds to directly invest in the area with infrastructure, remedia0on, ameni0es to add value. However it has more limited pubic financing op0ons, puhng most of the risk on the developer.
• In the US it is largely risk reduc0on: The US employs strategic planning regulatory and crea0ve financing mechanisms due to lack of public sector funds for infrastructure such as tax credits, abatements, interest-‐free or low-‐interest loans and grants, philanthropic funds to reduce risk.
Smart Government Needed – City vision = predictability for developers Predictability majers to developers.
– Good nego0ators -‐ can either bring people to a weak market or extract bejer development or ameni0es in a strong market
– Commitment to the long haul – what are the poli0cal 0melines that affect this if a development typically takes 10 – 15 years.
– Si0ng is cri0cal and complex – Public investment is cri0cal (transit, upgrading of u0li0es, land banking remedia0on)
Many Countries Need More Transit Investment
Source: Best Prac3ce in Na3onal Support for Urban Transporta3on, Part 1: Evalua3ng Country Performance in Mee3ng the Transit Needs of Urban Popula3ons; ITDP
Higher Funding, Smarter Investments, and More Debt Leveraging is Needed
to Grow Transit
Source: Best Prac3ce in Na3onal Support for Urban Transporta3on, Part 1: Evalua3ng Country Performance in Mee3ng the Transit Needs of Urban Popula3ons; ITDP
Sao Paulo Strategic Plan: A New Best PracFce
DESIGN REGULATION: Densifica0on w/ value capture; mixed use, ac0ve frontage, public passage incen0ves; parking disincen0ves.
DENSIFY: Building rights increased along corridors
• Corridor far maximum: 4 (x 2) • Off corridors far maximum: 2 • Basic far 1 (as of right) • Minimial far (varies)
Value capture: Development above basic far (1:1) is subject to urban fund fees towards improvements and services
MIXED USE INCENTIVE: Ground floor commercial space is discounted from far calcula0on (up to 20% of total building floor area)
Ac0ve Frontage Incen0ve: Addi0onal 50% of the lot area dedicated to local commerce and services discounted in the calcula0on of allowed far.
CONNECT: Public passages
Public passages permanently open on property get equal amount of addi0onal building rights (far)
Shi`: parking disincen0ve Reduced parking places discounted from far calcula0on: -‐ 1 per dwelling unit (down from 1, 2 or 3 mini. Depending on unit size) -‐ 1 PER 100M2 of non-‐residen0al use. Addi0onal parking area becomes part of basic buildable area
Site/Project Name City, Country Total Score
Walk Score
1.1 Walkways
1.2 Crosswalks
1.3 Visually Active Frontage
1.4 Physically Permeable Frontage
1.5 Shade and Shelter
Cycle Score
2.1 Cycle Network
2.2 Cycle Parking at Transit Stations
2.3 Cycle Parking at Buildings
2.4 Cycle Access in Building
Connect Score
3.1 Small Blocks
3.2 Prioritized Connectivity
Mix Score
5.1 Complementary Uses
5.2 Accessibility to Food
5.3 Affordable Housing
Densify Score
6.1 Land Use Density
Compact Score
7.1 Urban Site
7.2 Transit Options
Shift Score
8.1 Off-Street Parking
8.2 Driveway Density
8.3 Roadway Area
Central Saint Giles London, UK 99 14 3 3 6 1 1 5 2 1 1 1 15 10 5 15 10 1 4 15 15 15 10 5 20 10 2 8
Hammarby SjÖstad Stockholm, Sweden 94 15 3 3 6 2 1 4 2 1 1 0 15 10 5 10 6 1 3 15 15 15 10 5 20 10 2 8
Vauban Freiburg, Germany 90 13 3 3 6 0 1 4 2 1 1 0 15 10 5 13 10 1 2 15 15 10 6 4 20 10 2 8
Quartier Massena, Paris Rive Gauche Paris, France 90 14 3 3 6 1 1 4 2 0 1 1 13 10 3 15 10 1 4 15 15 15 10 5 14 4 2 8
Liuyun Xiaoqu Guangzhou, China 90 14 3 3 6 2 0 3 1 1 1 0 15 10 5 11 10 1 0 15 15 15 10 5 17 10 2 5
Centro Internacional de Bogotá Bogotá, Columbia 90 11 3 0 6 1 1 3 0 1 1 1 11 6 5 15 10 1 4 15 15 15 10 5 20 10 2 8
Bo01, Västra Hamnen Malmö, Sweden 90 14 3 3 6 1 1 4 2 1 1 0 15 10 5 11 10 1 0 15 15 11 10 1 20 10 2 8
HafenCity Hamburg, Germany 87 13 3 3 6 0 1 4 2 1 1 0 15 10 5 15 10 1 4 15 15 15 10 5 10 0 2 8
Olympic Village Vancouver, Canada 86 12 3 0 6 2 1 3 2 1 0 0 15 10 5 9 4 1 4 15 15 15 10 5 17 10 2 5
Uptown, Cleveland Cleveland, Ohio, USA 84 14 3 3 6 1 1 3 2 0 1 0 13 10 3 11 10 1 0 15 15 11 6 5 17 10 2 5
Jianwai SOHO Beijing, China 83 12 3 0 6 2 1 5 2 1 1 1 13 10 3 11 10 1 0 15 15 15 10 5 12 10 2 0
GWL Terrein Amsterdam, Netherlands 82 15 3 3 6 2 1 5 2 1 1 1 15 10 5 15 10 1 4 0 0 15 10 5 17 10 2 5
World Trade Center site New York, New York USA 79 13 3 3 6 0 1 2 0 0 1 1 15 10 5 5 4 1 0 15 15 15 10 5 14 4 2 8
Ciudadela El Recreo Bogotá, Colombia 79 5 0 0 0 4 1 4 2 1 0 1 11 10 1 15 10 1 4 15 15 9 6 3 20 10 2 8
Puerto Madero Buenos Aires, Argentina 78 13 3 3 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 15 10 5 11 10 1 0 15 15 14 10 4 10 0 2 8
Pearl District Portland, Oregon, USA 78 15 3 3 6 2 1 2 0 1 1 0 15 10 5 11 6 1 4 15 15 15 10 5 5 3 2 0
New Quay, Docklands Melbourne, Australia 78 14 3 3 5 2 1 3 2 1 0 0 15 10 5 11 10 1 0 15 15 10 6 4 10 0 2 8
Bab Al Bahr Rabat-Salé, Morocco 78 12 3 0 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 15 10 5 7 6 1 0 15 15 15 10 5 14 4 2 8
North Battery Park City New York, New York, USA 77 10 3 0 6 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 9 6 3 15 10 1 4 15 15 15 10 5 11 4 2 5
Mission Bay San Francisco, California, 76 11 3 0 6 1 1 2 0 1 0 1 11 6 5 11 6 1 4 15 15 15 10 5 11 1 2 8
Fruitvale Station Village Oakland, California, USA 76 12 3 0 6 2 1 2 0 1 1 0 15 10 5 11 6 1 4 15 15 11 6 5 10 0 2 8
Corvin Budapest. Hungary 76 14 3 3 6 1 1 4 2 0 1 1 15 10 5 11 10 1 0 7 7 15 10 5 10 0 2 8
Reforma 222 México City, México 75 13 3 3 4 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 15 10 5 11 10 1 0 15 15 15 10 5 5 0 0 5
Marina Bay Financial Centre Singapore 74 11 3 0 6 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 15 10 5 11 10 1 0 15 15 11 6 5 11 1 2 8
Wilshire Vermont Station Los Angeles, California, USA 71 13 3 3 6 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 9 6 3 15 10 1 4 15 15 15 10 5 2 0 2 0
Bank of America Building New York, New York, USA 70 12 3 0 6 2 1 2 0 0 1 1 9 6 3 5 0 1 4 15 15 15 10 5 12 10 2 0
Whampoa Garden Hong Kong, China 69 13 3 3 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 15 10 5 7 6 1 0 7 7 15 10 5 12 2 2 8
South Lake Union Seattle, Washington, USA 66 10 3 0 6 0 1 4 2 1 1 0 9 6 3 9 4 1 4 7 7 15 10 5 12 10 2 0
Kanyon Mall Istanbul, Turkey 65 10 3 0 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 3 11 10 1 0 15 15 14 10 4 10 0 2 8
Neo Superquadra Curitiba, Brazil 63 13 3 3 6 0 1 5 2 1 1 1 3 2 1 7 6 1 0 0 0 15 10 5 20 10 2 8
Grand Gateway 66 Shanghai, China 62 6 3 3 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 3 0 3 11 10 1 0 15 15 15 10 5 10 0 2 8
Special West Chelsea District (High Line Upzoning) New York, New York, USA 61 14 3 3 6 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 3 0 3 11 10 1 0 15 15 14 10 4 2 0 2 0
Digital Media City Seoul, South Korea 60 10 3 0 6 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 15 10 5 9 4 1 4 0 0 15 10 5 10 0 2 8
Uptown, Oakland Oakland, California, USA 58 10 3 0 6 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 3 2 1 15 10 1 4 15 15 12 10 2 2 0 2 0
Kronsberg Hanover, Germany 58 13 3 3 6 0 1 4 2 1 1 0 15 10 5 5 0 1 4 0 0 1 1 0 20 10 2 8
Podomoro City Jakarta, Indonesia 53 8 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 1 0 1 0 15 15 15 10 5 11 1 2 8
The Mixc Shenzhen, China 50 6 0 0 5 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 11 10 1 0 15 15 15 10 5 2 0 2 0
Metrozone* Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 7 6 1 0 15 15 15 10 5 10 0 2 8
Bairro Carioca Rio de Janeiro, Brasil 47 5 3 0 2 0 0 4 2 1 0 1 3 0 3 8 4 0 4 0 0 15 10 5 12 10 2 0
S.E.W.S.H. Scheme, Vadaj* Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India 46 3 0 0 0 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 13 10 3 5 0 1 4 0 0 9 6 3 14 4 2 8
East Liberty station area Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA 46 9 3 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 10 3 9 4 1 4 0 0 15 10 5 0 0 0 0
Empire Estate Pimpri Chinchwad, Maharashtra, India 49 8 0 0 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 4 1 2 15 15 14 10 4 5 3 2 0
Águas Claras - DF Brasília, Brazil 45 6 3 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 7 6 1 7 6 1 0 0 0 11 6 5 13 3 2 8
Mitikah Phase 1 México City, México 41 10 3 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 5 11 10 1 0 0 0 15 10 5 0 0 0 0
Rio Vista West San Diego, California, USA 40 10 3 0 6 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 3 0 3 5 4 1 0 15 15 3 3 0 2 0 2 0
Ciudad del Rio Partial Plan* Medellín, Colombia 39 7 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 7 6 1 0 0 0 15 10 5 7 0 2 5
Sikander Bakht Nagar, Behrampur* Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India 37 3 0 0 0 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 5 2 3 9 4 1 4 0 0 7 6 1 11 4 2 5
South End station area Charlotte, North Carolina, USA 36 10 3 0 6 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 3 0 3 4 0 0 4 0 0 8 3 5 10 0 2 8
CETRAM Zapata México City, México 34 4 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 3 2 1 9 4 1 4 0 0 15 10 5 2 0 2 0
SIPCOT Siruseri Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 0 0 0 6 1 5 12 2 2 8
Sikander Bakht Nagar, Behrampur Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India 3 0 0 0 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 5 2 3 9 4 1 4 0 0 7 6 1 11 4 2 5
Ciudad del Rio (partial plan)* Medellín, Colombia 7 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 7 6 1 0 0 0 15 10 5 7 0 2 5
S.E.W.S.H. Scheme, Vadaj (Affordable housing at Vadaj)* Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India 3 0 0 0 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 13 10 3 5 0 1 4 0 0 9 6 3 14 4 2 8
Metrozone* Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 7 6 1 0 15 15 15 10 5 10 0 2 8
Central Saint Giles, London 99 Points
• An 11-‐story office building that has 405,000 P2 of commercial space. • A 15-‐story residenFal building with 109 dwelling units, half of which are
affordable. • A pedestrian plaza located between the two buildings at the centre of the site. It
is surrounded by 24,500P2 of ground floor transparent retail & restaurant space.