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AGI Foresight StudyA Vision of the Geospatial industry in 2015

John PepperAGI Chairman

AgendaSetting the SceneJohn Pepper

Data and TechnologyAndrew Coote

Market Directions Steven Feldman

Public Policy and Business ModelsRobin McLaren

Open Debate

Prediction is very difficult,especially about the future.

Neils Bohr (1885-1962)

Defining the Geospatial Market

• Information, processes, products and services where location is a significant component.

or• Any endeavour where our expertise can be

used to the benefit of citizens, business and good governance

Expert ContributorsAlan BelwardAlan DodsonAndrew Hudson-SmithAndrew WoolfBerik DaviesBill OatesCharles ArthurStephen BoothChris OsborneGary GaleGesche SchmidGraham WallaceIain GreenwayJo CookJohn Pepper

Jamie JusthamMary ShortMichael NicholsonMick CoryMike OsborneMuki HaklayNick RigbyPeter BattyPeter ter HaarRichard GroomRob WalkerSpencer ChaineyStewart FotheringhamJon RaperSteven Feldman

William MackanessAndy WellsRobin McLarenChris HolcroftHugh NeffendorfTony BlackGraham VowlesBrian HiggsAlun JonesSung Hyun JongAudun ClarkMarek ZiebartThierry GregoriusTim DuffyClaire Huppertz

Next Steps• Highlights presentations (today)• Open survey on key Questions (now – Christmas)• Summary Report (in preparation)• Final results will be published in January• AGI consider implications for the organisation

Complementary Perspectives

Data and Technology

Markets

Policy

Data and Technology

Geospatial Information is Pervasive

Position will be “always available” through Smartphones, RFID tags and other sensors.

The value to each application will be variable, but it will always be there.

Sub-metre accuracy 3D data is available for all urban areas

“Imagery becomes a commodity, viewed and distributed on the web almost for free. Mass market removed and

specialist capture returns”. Andy Wells

Augmented Reality

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b64_16K2e08

Global Navigation Satellite System

Source: klipsi.ch

“Multi-constellation GNSS providing 100 satellitesCentimetre positioning commonly achievable in a

mobile environment.” Alan Dodson

Cloud Computing:the dominant delivery mechanism

“Essentially it will mean that users of IT-related services will be able to focus on what the service provides them rather

than how the services are implemented or hosted.” Gartner (2009)

Location based Services

“Mainstream consumer-focused location aware smartphones and related location based services will make significant inroads

into the enterprise, significantly reducing the cost and effort required for many mobile applications.” Peter Batty

Earth Observation Satellites

“By 2015 governmental organisations will operate over 200 EO satellites carrying 385 different instruments.

Turning data from such a range of systems into information calls for a corresponding range of scientific and technical

competencies.” Alan Belward

Open Source Geospatial Software

GRASS

OpenLayers

“In 5 years time, Open Source Geospatial won't be a niche or a specialism, it will be the standard way that things are done.” Jo Cook

Crowd sourcing

“Five years ago OpenStreetMap didnʼt exist, so forecasting the future of crowdsourced data feels particularly futile.”

“However, the UK is predicted to be complete, at the street level, in 14 months time.”

“There will be more than 1,000,000 users in much less than five years time.” Chris Osborne

Geomatics

“I can envisage a market for 3D point cloud data from lidar combined with mobile scanning by ground vehicles.” Richard Groom

Semantic Web

Google will parse complete natural language sentences in a single query – Gary Gale

Some Resulting Challenges• Discard the location-specific baggage and enter the

mainstream.• Survive and prosper alongside Google and other emerging

global players.• Engage with LBS developers and service providers and take

advantage.• Provide services to help users migrate through these paradigm

shifts.• Take location information into socially significant applications,

e.g. climate change, participatory democracy, mega city planning

• Communicating with end users who don’t understand maps.

Looking at Markets in 2015

Steven Feldman

Future gazing can be a risky business

It’s not easy to predict the future …

It’s easier to predict technology than the way it may be used

An early mobile phone

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVtDWXohLXY

Technology drives the Market

1cm accurate always available GPS

Or even indoors

Real time data feeds

http://is.gd/lCrI

Vehicle Telematics

Passive Crowd Sourcing

Cloud, Cloud, Cloud

Com

mer

cial

them

es

Falling Prices

Resistance to change

First mover advantage

Crime and Public Safety Market

“information sharing may result in creating an information explosion that results in those at the receiving end of information having too much information”

Energy Market

“Decisions will be based on data that will cost millions of dollars; a well that misses its target by 20m due to an incorrect or missing datum or CRS could mean the difference between exploration success or failure”

Environmental Management

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“In many cases, more information equals greater confusion – another dataset will be around the corner to refute any …“

Financial Services

“A new breed of market entrants will emerge to exploit structural weaknesses of the legacy IT infrastructure of existing players in the financial services sector”

Local Governm

ent“public sector sourced and derived data will have to be more freely and openly available to manage this shift from centrally provided services to a more enabled and self service society”

Marine and Coastal Markets

“the greatest challenge to SDI creation is the existing culture and work practices that support a myriad of individual projects and legacy applications”

Retail

“Greater granularity in customer information and segmentation, enabled by embedded geodata elements, will allow for wild and exciting interpretations and analyses of the customer profiles, matching movement to will, location to desire and helping to model every expectation of every customer in a dynamically, visually representable way”

Transport

“The green agenda will continue to have an influence on the transport industry. Businesses will want to parade their credentials as part of their marketing message, and geospatial data will be a key element for them. However, cost saving will remain the biggest incentive to purchasing of technology”

Health

“Too often in the healthcare market it seems that spatial analysis is currently used to defend decisions which have already been made, rather than being relied upon to optimise the decision-making process itself. This contrasts with the best practice elsewhere in the public sector”

More of the same?

No Breakthroughsgovernment

local

government

defense

transport

healt

h

insurance

environment

bi

resources

Consumer

Mobile Navigation

Location Based Social Networks

Location aware price comparison

Hyperlocal News

Ubiquitous Location

Location targeted advertising

Something Else or

Somewhere Else?

Where will the money be?

How good is our foresight?

Foreseeing the internet in the 60’s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EC5sbdvnvQM

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Looking at Policy in 2015

Robin McLaren

Did you know?

58http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY

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Predicting the Future

“While I can’t predict the future, after listening to 50 companies working on the same problem I have a view of what’s likely to happen”

Nancy Peretsman, Managing Director, Allen & Co.[Supported Google to go public]

Know Edge Ltd 60Global Forces

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Source: www.biojobblog.com

Source: www.smu.edu.sg

Know Edge Ltd 64Public Sector Information

Source: www.eom.com.my/terms

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Know Edge Ltd 68London, EnglandSnowdonia, Wales

Tyndrum, ScotlandGiants Causeway, Northern Ireland

a unique opportunity

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Institutional Change

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Source: www.bestventureinc.com

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Reporting a Problem with Google Maps (USA)

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Data Privacy

Source: www.easyheath.org.uk

Know Edge Ltd 79Source: www.abouttheimage.com

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Value Added Resellers

Source: www.thevarguy.com

Challenging times ahead

• Discard the location-specific baggage and enter the mainstream.

• Survive and prosper alongside Google and other emerging global players.

• Engage with LBS developers and service providers and take advantage.

• Provide services to help users migrate through these paradigm shifts.

• Take location information into socially significant applications, e.g. climate change, participatory democracy, mega city planning

• Communicating with end users who don’t understand maps.

Challenging Technology

Challenging Markets

• Technology drives the market• Making money out of free• From producer to consumer centric • Resistance to change• Information overload and lack of trust• From consumer to enterprise

Challenging Policy

• Economic power changes• Appropriate GI capacity building• Sustainable business models in the world of

“free”• Build a UK based global market leader• A new type of public sector• Are we a profession?• Privacy is a nightmare

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Your Role• A bright future won’t just happen. It is up to you

to make it happen and shape the future.

Source: www.mindyfuller.com

Than

k You