GFS Forecast Review NCEP EMC GCWMB Bi-weekly Briefing Fanglin Yang, August 25, 2011.
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Transcript of GFS Forecast Review NCEP EMC GCWMB Bi-weekly Briefing Fanglin Yang, August 25, 2011.
GFS Forecast Review
NCEP EMC GCWMB
Bi-weekly Briefing
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/
Fanglin Yang, August 25, 2011
Hurricane Irene Courtesy
00Z 23Aug2011 Cycle00Z 25Aug2011 Cycle
GFS has performed well in terms of track forecast.
Hurricane Irene: GFS 00Z 25AUG2011 Forecast
5PM, Friday 5PM, Saturday
5PM, Sunday 11AM, Saturday
DC area: 40 mph wind, lots of rain
GFS Four Cycles
In the past few months, GFS 00Z cycle fell behind the 12Z and 06Z cycles.
NH 500hPa Height AC
SH 500hPa Height AC
In the past few months, GFS 00Z cycle became better than all other cycles.
IMD T382 GFS—no dropouts below .7But average score .028 lower
Courtesy: Glenn White GFS had two dropouts in July; The T382 GFS run in Indian had no dropouts.
In the Past 31 DaysTropical Wind CONUS QPF Score
00-72hr accumulated rainfall;Better than all but ECMWF
Slightly better than ECM and UKM for day-1 in the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere
NH 500-hPa Height AC
• GFS forecast skill has been steadily improving; falls behind ECMWF and Met Office; better than Canadian and Navy.
• After 2007, UK Met Office improved summer forecast.
SH 500-hPa Height AC
• The gap between GFS and ECMWF hasn’t changed for decades.
• Met Office surpassed GFS in 2005.
• CMC improved after 2008
Tropical 850hPa Wind
• GFS significantly improved after 2007 GSI implementation and July-2010 T574 implementation.