Getting Students to Graduate:The National Context

Thomas BaileyNational Center for Postsecondary Research

Community College Research CenterTeachers College, Columbia University

Presented at

Higher Education in Michigan: Looking Back and Looking Ahead

Ann Arbor, MichiganDecember 10, 2009

What is the Problem?

• International comparisons

• Skill needs of the contemporary economy Some college is necessary for access to

decent jobs Employer needs

• Continued inequality in higher ed access and completion for low income and minority students

Solution—Increase in Degrees and Certificates

• Obama Administration An additional 5 million CC awards by 2010

• Gates Foundation Double the percentage of low-income young people

who earn a post-secondary credential by age 26 (from 30 percent to 60 percent)

• Lumina Foundation Increase share of population with high quality

credentials from 40 to 60 percent by 2050

• Cherry Commission Double the number of graduates with degrees

Community College Degrees have Value in the Labor Market

• Benefits of an Associate Degree (compared to a high school degree) Men earn 15 to 30 percent more Women earn up to 50 percent more

• Certificates Positive for women Uncertain for men

• Varies by field• Earnings benefit of an associate degree is at

least half of the benefit of a B.A.• Some value in credits even without degrees

Community College Graduation Rates

• No single definition of graduation rate or student outcomes

• Student Right to Know (SRK) most commonly available– “Three” year rate for 1st time, full time, degree

seeking students

• US Rate—22 %

Michigan SRK Grad Rates

• State graduation rate—15.3% (2004)

• 2,700 out of almost 18,000 graduate

• Lowest—Bay Mills—5.7%

• Highest—Alpena—33.7%

Criticisms of SRK

• Only full time, first time students

• The time period is too short

• Institutional graduation rates count transfers (without graduation) as “non-completers”

Accuracy of the SRK Graduation Rate (National Data)

Institutional Rate

Individual Rate

Three year 22.9 % 25.5%

Six year 28.3% 45.7%

Source: BPS 96/2001

“CC First” PSE Students Total Credits Earned in All PSE Within Eight Years

(NELS)

02468

10121416182022

<10 10-<20

20-<30

30-<40

40-<50

50-<60

60-<70

70-<80

80-<90

90-<100

100-<110

110-<120

120-<130

130-<140

140-<150

150+

“CC First” PSE StudentsPercent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE

Within Eight Years (NELS)Certificate

6%

Associate15%

Bachelors18%

<10 Credits (no deg/cert)17%

10+ Credits (no deg/cert/xfer)

33%

Transfer (no deg/cert)11%

“CC First” PSE Students in Lowest SES QuartilePercent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE

Within Eight Years (NELS)

Certificate8%

Associate16%

Bachelors8%

Transfer (no deg/cert)5%

10+ Credits (no deg/cert/xfer)

47%

<10 Credits (no deg/cert)16%

“CC First” PSE Students in Various GroupsPercent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All PSE

Within Eight Years (NELS)

0

20

40

60

80

All LowIncome

Hispanic Black

Pre

cen

tag

e No Degree or Transfer

Transfer

Degree or Certif icate

Educational Access and SESExperience by 2000 for HS Class of 1992

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1 2 3 4

SES Quartile

Per

cen

tag

e No college

Two-year college

Four-year college

“CC First” PSE StudentsPercent Distribution by Highest Outcome in All

PSE Within Six Years (BPS96)Certificate

10%

Associate 16%

Bachelors 10%

No Longer Enrl (No Deg/Xfer)

43%

Transfer (No Deg) No Longer Enrl

4%

Still Enrl (No Deg/Xfer) 8%

Transfer (No Deg) Still Enrl 9%

Efforts to Increase Graduation Rates?

• Many definitions of outcomes—shifting role of community colleges

• Focus on developmental education

• Institutional Incentives—Washington State Student Achievement Initiative

What is “Graduation?”

• Transfer programs growing faster than terminal programs

• Fast growth of certificates, non-credit, and certifications

• Many intermediate measures of performance consistent with varied goals of CC students

Many Alternative Outcome Measures

Source: Pete Ewell, NCHEMS, 2006.

“Milestone Events” in a Student Enrollment Pathway

GED ABEESL

First College Credit

X Credits –1 Term

College-Level[“College Path”]

Y Credits – 1 Year College-Level

[“Transfer Ready”][“Workforce Ready”]

Certificate Associate Degree

Employment[Field Earnings]

BA Degree

Basic Skills Conversion Rate

SRK Completion Rate

“Workforce Ready” Employment Rate

Skills-Deficient Completion Rate

Start Developmental

WorkReadingWritingMath

Complete Developmental

WorkReadingWritingMath

“College Path” Completion RateDevelopmental

Completion Rate

“Milestone Events” in a Student Enrollment Pathway

GED ABEESL

First College Credit

X Credits –1 Term

College-Level[“College Path”]

Y Credits – 1 Year College-Level

[“Transfer Ready”][“Workforce Ready”]

Certificate Associate Degree

Employment[Field Earnings]

BA Degree

Basic Skills Conversion Rate

SRK Completion Rate

“Workforce Ready” Employment Rate

Skills-Deficient Completion Rate

Start Developmental

WorkReadingWritingMath

Complete Developmental

WorkReadingWritingMath

“College Path” Completion RateDevelopmental

Completion Rate

Washington State Research Partnership

• Study of ABE to college transition based on state longitudinal data base– Transition is rare– No detectable earnings benefit with less than 30

credits

• Introduction of IBEST—ABE to college initiative• Development of the Student Achievement

Initiative rewarding colleges for intermediate points

For more information:Please visit us on the web at

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Community College Research CenterInstitute on Education and the Economy, Teachers College, Columbia University

525 West 120th Street, Box 174, New York, NY 10027 E-mail: ccrc@columbia.eduTelephone: 212.678.3091

CCRC funders include: Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Lumina Foundation for Education, The Ford Foundation, National Science Foundation (NSF), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundationand Institute of Education Sciences of the U.S. Department of Education