Getting It Down! - Causation
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Transcript of Getting It Down! - Causation
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7/31/2019 Getting It Down! - Causation
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Dj~~old O~
N`tl#
QC[^ ^E[JJ ) FCZVC^O@L
HQJF JNZFC^O@L ( IJNOC
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7/31/2019 Getting It Down! - Causation
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OL ^EOV VJF^O@L
3, Fczvc~o`l ju~ I`njb
;, F`l~jl~ 8:
6, H{ciold 6:
>, Kzobnold l Kcvofv
:, F`lno~o`lcbv
8, Dj~~old O~ N`tl#
VJF^O@L 6
Fczvc~o`l
3 Kcvof Fczvc~o`l ^ju~ I`njb
Ecxold b``gjn c~ doxold olh`{ic~o`l ~e{`zde xc{o`zv ~jfeloszjv" cln ~ejl c~ i`n)
jbv `h f`iqc{ov`l" tj l`t ~z{l l`t ~` fczvj cln jhhjf~, C~ ~ej ejc{~ `h b`dof bojv
~ej onjc `h fczvcbo~y juq{jvvjn qj{ecqv i`v~ jb`szjl~by ol ~ej voiqbj b`dofcb h`{)
izbc= oh C" ~ejl K, Tj tobb b``g bc~j{ c~ f`lno~o`lcbv cln e`t ~ejy hzlf~o`l, Kz~ ffi{v~
tjbb b``g c~ c kcvof i`njb ~ju~ h`{ ve`told fczvj cln jhhjf~, Bc~j{ `l tjbb ~z{l ~`
i`{j xc{ojn cqq{`cfejv ~` juq{jvvold fczvcbo~y, @h f`z{vj" tjbb b``g c~ b`dofcb
v~c~jijl~v cln f`lno~o`lcbv mzv~ ~` ffilove zv `hh, Doxold {jcv`lv" v~c~old q{`kckbj
q`vvokbj `z~f`ijv" juqbcolold vo~zc~o`lv cln q{jnof~old ~ej hz~z{j cbb {jby `l fczvc)
~o`l, O~ ov cl ol~jd{cb qc{~ `h `z{ bc~j{ i`njbv `h novfzvvo`l, @lfj cdcol ~eov zlo~
~{ojv ~` ~oj ol cv hc{ cv q`vvokbj ~` `~ej{ zlo~v vzfe cv ~ej X`fckzbc{y Kzobnj{vcln
^ej Kzvoljvv, @lj jufjbbjl~ juciqbj `h e`t o~ iode~ kj ~ojn kcfg ol ov ol njvf{ok)
old juqj{ojlfj cln e`t o~ {jvzb~jn ol y`z{ fz{{jl~ vgobbvj~" `{ y`z{ jnzfc~o`l cln
tec~ vgobbv cln juqj{ojlfj ~ec~ bjn ~`, Kz~ tj vecbb v~c{~ to~e c ~ju~ `l v`ij~eold
~ec~ chhjf~v zv cbb= Db`kcb Tc{iold,
F`lvjszjlfjv `h Db`kcb Tc{iold
Db`kcb tc{iold tobb" cff`{nold ~` c {jfjl~ {jq`{~" {jvzb~ olc 8F {ovj ol cxj{)
cdj ~jiqj{c~z{j ol Vtjnjl ol ~ej lju~ 61 yjc{v, ^eov tobb {jvzb~ ol xc{o`zv
f`lvjszjlfjv h`{ olecko~cl~v `h ~ej D`~ejlkz{d f`cv~cb {jdo`l, @lj `h
~ej f`lvjszjlfjv tobb kj c {ovj ol tc~j{ bjxjbv nzj ~` olf{jcvjn dbcfocb
ijb~)tc~j{ h{`i ~ej L`{tjdocl Cbqv, ^eov tobb ijcl ~ec~ ``nold tobb kj)
f`ij cl jxj{i`{j f`ii`l `ffz{{jlfj cln c qc{~ `h jxj{yncy bohj h`{ ~ej
q`qzbc~o`l `h ~ej tjv~)f`cv~ {jdo`l, ^eov tobb" ol ~z{l" bjcn ~`icm`{ ~{clvq`{~
q{`kbjiv ol njlvjby q`qzbc~jn c{jcv, ^ej ``nold tobb cbv` fczvjncicdj
~` q{`qj{~ojv" bjcxold ~ej {jdo`l ~` qofg zq ~ej kobb, Cl`~ej{ jhhjf~ ~ej ~ji)qj{c~z{j {ovj tobb ecxj ov eodej{ vjc bjxjbv, Cv c {jvzb~" ~ej f`cv~bolj tobb
f`ij zlnj{ c~~cfg h{`i ~ej vjc cln qc{~v `h o~ tobb kj zlnj{ tc~j{ h`{ ol)
f{jcvoldby d{jc~j{ qc{~v `h ~ej yjc{, F`lvjszjl~by" ~ej f`cv~bolj tobb fecldj
cln qj`qbjv e`zvjv icy ecxj ~` kj ckcln`ljn kjfczvj `h ~ej vjc jl)
f{`cfeold `l ~ejo{ q{`qj{~ojv, C ~eo{n {jvzb~ `h db`kcb tc{iold tobb kj c
b`ld)bcv~old fecldj ol {jdo`lcb fboic~j, Cb~e`zde tol~j{v icy v~obb vjj ~ji)
qj{c~z{jv n{`qqold ~` iolzv ;1F cln kjb`t" vziij{v icy k{old eodev ol
jufjvv `h >1F, ^eov q`ol~v ~`i`{j ju~{jij fboic~j zf~zc~o`lv" to~e eodev
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cln b`tv {cldold `xj{ 81F cln kjy`ln, Co{ f`lno~o`lold icy ecxj ~` kj
zvjn ol vziij{ nzj ~`ejc~)tcxjv j~f, Cv c {jvzb~" ~ej {jdo`lv jlj{dy zv)
cdj icy {ovj n{cic~ofcbby bjcnold ~`olf{jcvjn f`v~v cln jiovvo`lv, Ol ~z{l"
~eov {ovold zvcdj tobb`lby vqjjn zq fboic~j fecldj, ^ejvj c{j mzv~ v`ij `h
~ej q{`kckbj f`lvjszjlfjv `h q{`mjf~jn ~jiqj{c~z{j olf{jcvj kjfczvj `h
db`kcb tc{iold, F`lvjszjlfjv ~ec~ve`zbn" e`qjhzbby" jlf`z{cdj qj`qbj ~`
~eolg i`{j fc{jhzbby ck`z~ ~ejo{ `tl jlj{dy f`lvziq~o`l nzj ~` ~ej hcf~ ~ec~
~ejo{ `tl hz~z{j icy tjbb kj {cnofcbby chhjf~jn ky o~,
; F`l~jl~ 8:
@gcy, Ecxold {jcn ~ej ~ju~" bj~v b``g c~ ~ej kcvof f`l~jl~ `h ~ej qojfj, O~ ijcvz{jv
ol c~ {`zdeby 8:* `h ~ej ~ju~" ejlfj F`l~jl~ 8:, O ecv~jl ~` cnn ~ec~ tejl ~cbgold
~ec~ f`l~jl~ qj{fjl~cdj f`ijv f{cveold ejcxoby n`tl, Ej{j tj ecxj ~oij ~` qbcl
`z{ ic~j{ocb cln qz~ o~ ol `{nj{ kjh`{j jikc{gold `l t{o~old, Tejl tj vqjcg tj
`h~jl zvj ~ej H{ciold 6: ~` kzy zv ~oij ~` t`{g `z~ `z{ f`l~jl~, ^ec~ qz~v ~ej {c)
~o` zq ~` ljc{by 3=3 ol i`v~ fcvjv" c f``b ffih~y)ffih~y,
F`lvjszjlfjv `h Db`kcb Tc{iold ol D`~ejlkz{d F`cv~cb [jdo`l,
3,3 [ovj ol tc~j{ bjxjbv %fczvjn ky olf{jcvjn dbcfocb ijb~tc~j{/
3,3,3 Olf{jcvjn ``nold
3,3,; ^{clvq`{~ q{`kbjiv ol njlvjby q`qzbc~jn c{jcv
3,3,6 Ncicdj ~` q{`qj{~ojv
;,3 Eodej{ vjc bjxjbv
;,3,3 Qc{~v h f`cv~bolj zlnj{ tc~j{
;,3,; Fecldjn f`cv~bolj
;,3,6 E`zvjv kjold ckcln`ljn
6,3 B`ld)bcv~old fboic~j fecldj
6,3,3 Eodej{ vziij{ ~jiqj{c~z{jv ( ju~{jij fboic~j zf~zc~o`lv
6,3,; N{cic~of {ovj ol jlj{dy zvcdj
6,3,6 Hcv~j{ fboic~j fecldj
6 H{ciold 6:
L`~j ej{j ~ec~ ~ej h{ciold ci`zl~v ~` cqq{`u, 311 t`{nv" ~ej kc{j k`ljv `h ~ej
f`l~jl~ ~`~cbv" voiobc{by" cqq{`u, 311 t`{nv, ^ej ~ju~ tjodev ol c~ cqq{`u, 611
t`{nv= `lj)~eo{n h{ciold" `lj)~eo{n kcvj f`l~jl~ cln `lj)~eo{n {jqj~o~o`l `{ njxjb)
`qijl~ `h kcvj f`l~jl~, Tjbb juciolj bc~j{ ~ej xc{o`zv qj{iz~c~o`lv `h fczvj
cln jhhjf~, Ej{jv ~ej k{jcgn`tl=
Hzlf~o`l H{ciold Jbjijl~
Vzkmjf~ V~c~jijl~ Db`kcb tc{iold tobb" cff`{nold ~` c {jfjl~ {jq`{~"
{jvzb~ ol c 8F {ovj ol cxj{cdj ~jiqj{c~z{j ol
Vtjnjl ol ~ej lju~ 61 yjc{v, ^eov tobb {jvzb~ olxc{o`zv f`lvjszjlfjv h`{ olecko~cl~v `h ~ej
D`~ejlkz{d f`cv~cb {jdo`l,
Q`ol~ 3 @lj h ~ej f`lvjszjlfjv tobb kj
Nj~cob %fczvj/ nzj ~`
Nj~cob %jhhjf~ 3/ ^eov tobb ijcl ~ec~
Nj~cob %jhhjf~ ;/ ^eov tobb" ol ~z{l" bjcn ~`
Nj~cob %jhhjf~ 6/ ,,, tobb cbv` fczvj ,,,
Q`ol~ ; Cl`~ej{ jhhjf~ ~ej ~jiqj{c~z{j {ovj tobb ecxj ov
Nj~cob %jhhjf~/ Cv c {jvzb~"
Nj~cob %jhhjf~/ F`lvjszjl~by"
Nj~cob %fczvj/ kjfczvj `h
Q`ol~ 6 C ~eo{n {jvzb~ h db`kcb tc{iold tobb kj
Nj~cob %f`lfjvvo`l/ Cb~e`zde ,,,
Nj~cob %jhhjf~/ ^eov q`ol~v ~` ,,,
Nj~cob %fczvj/ nzj ~`
Nj~cob %jhhjf~/ Cv c {jvzb~"
Nj~cob %jhhjf~/ bjcnold ~`
Nj~cob %jhhjf~/ Ol ~z{l" ~eov ,,, tobb
[jv~c~jijl~ ^ejvj c{j mzv~ v`ij `h ~ej q{`kckbj
f`lvjszjlfjv
Nj~cob %fczvj/ kjfczvj `h
Nj~cob %fczvj/ nzj ~` ~ej hcf~ ~ec~
;
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> Kzobnold `l Kcvofv
^ej h`bb`told juciqbjv kzobn `l `z{ kcvof i`njb cln juqb`{j fczvcb {jbc~o`lveoqv
ol c q{jn`iolcl~by vfojl~offif c{jlc, N` l`~ kj nc}}bjn ky ~ej qbj~e`{c h juciqbjv,
Olv~jcn qofg cln fe``vj" vzkv~o~z~old y`z{ f`l~jl~" j,d, Iy ol~j{jv~ ol jldoljv
v~jiv h{`i kjold c{`zln fc{v cv c feobn,
Xj{kv juq{jvvold fczvcbo~y
Fczvcb Xj{k
Bcfg h q{`~jol icy fczvjfcl bjcn ~`fcl {jvzb~ ol
ijl~cb {j~c{nc~o`l,
B`t bjxjbv h feb`{olj ol~ej k`ny
fcl doxj {ovj ~` eode kb``n q{jvvz{j,
Izfe h ~ej olv~ckobo~y v~jiv h{`i ~ej jf`l`iof jhhjf~v `h~ej tc{,
Gtcveo`{g`{ ov c novjcvj fczvjn ky olvzhhofojl~ q{`~jol,
Kj{o)kj{o ov c novjcvj {jvzb~old h{`i xo~ciol njhofojlfy,
Vfz{xy ov c novjcvj v~jiiold h{`i bcfg `h xo~ciol F,
L`zlv juq{jvvold fczvcbo~y
Fczvcb L`zlv
^ej i`v~ bogjby fczvjv `h U c{j q``{ noj~ cln bcfg `h juj{fovj,
C f`lvjszjlfj `h xo~ciol C njhofojlfy ov kbolnljvv,
Qeyvofcb cf~oxo~y ov cl oiq`{~cl~ hcf~`{ol icol~colold ho~ljvv,
Cl`~ej{ {jcv l teyUv c{j f`lvonj{jn ~` kj oiq`{~cl~ ov ~ec~ ,,,
Q{jq`vo~o`lcb qe{cvjv juq{jvvold fczvcbo~y
Fczvcb Q{jq`vo~o`lcbQe{cvj
L`zl Qe{cvj
;11"111 qj`qbj qj{ yjc{ `told ~` c bcfg h o`nolj,
kjfczvj h
cv c {jvzb~ `h
nzj ~`
FczvcbQ{jq`vo~o`lcb
Qe{cvj
F`iqbj~jVjl~jlfj
;11"111 qj`qbj `told ~` ~ej hcf~ ~ec~ ~ejy ecxj c bcfgqj{ yjc{ jf`ijnjch kjfczvj h
` ` lj,
cv c {jvzb~ `h
nzj ~`
Vjl~jlfj f`lljf~`{v juq{jvvold fczvcbo~y
Fczvcb F`lljf~`{
Oh zlnj{l`z{ovejn cln ^ej{jh`{j" tejl ~ejy d{`t zq" o~ tobb
vz{xoxj ~` kjf`ij F`lvjszjl~by"
~eji ~` holn t`{g,
c zb~v" ~ejy ecxj
njf{jcvjn bjc{lold Kjfczvj h ~eov"
ckobo~y, Cv c {jvzb~ % h ~eov/"
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Cnxj{kocb qe{cvjv juq{jvvold fczvcbo~y
Fczvcb Cnxj{kocbQe{cvj
Icblz~{o~o`l bjcnv ~`obbljvv cln c {jnzfjnckobo~y ~` t`{g olcnzb~e``n"
~ezv~ej{jky qj{qj~zc~old ~ej q`xj{~yfyfbj,
^ej tc{i co{ {ovjv ck`xj~ej vz{hcfj h ~ej vjc"
f{jc~old cl c{jc h b`tq{jvvz{j,
@~ej{ juciqbjv
I`{j
Cv c f`lvjszjlfj `h U" o~ cqqjc{v ~ec~ tolnv cb`lj c{j l`~ ~ej fczvc~oxj hcf~ {`h,,,
Nzj ~` U cln _ olhb`told vz{hcfj tc~j{ kjf`ijv i`{j njlvj cv o~ ,,,
U cln _ c{j oiq`{~cl~ n{oxold hcf~`{v h ],
^ej iouold h U cln _ juj{~v c q`tj{hzb jhhjf~ zq`l ] ~e{`zde ,,,
Q`vvokbj fczvj cln jhhjf~ {jbc~o`lveoqv %juq{jvvjn ~jl~c~oxjby/
Q`vvokbj [jbc~o`lveoqv
^eov vzddjv~v c tjcg bolg icy juov~ kj~tjjl U cln _,
^ej ezicl qcqobb`ic xo{zv ov bolgjn ~` i`v~ fj{xofcb fclfj{,
V~`icfe fclfj{ ol icly fcvjv icy kj cvv`foc~jn to~e fj{~col kcf~j{ocbolhjf~o`lv,
C eode f lvziq~o`l `h vjch``n f`zbn kj cvv`foc~jn to~e olhj{~obo~y,
^ej{j ov v`ij jxonjlfj ~ec~ U icy chhjf~_,
: F`lno~o`lcbv
Oh C" ~ejl K, ^ej{j o~ ov, ^ej voiqbj b`dof `h fczvcbo~y, Ol bcldzcdj tj fcbb ~eov c f`l)
no~o`lcb" tej{j C ov c f`lno~o`l cln K ~ej `z~f`ij f`lno~o`lcb `l C, ^ej f`lno)
~o`lcb ov oiq`{~cl~ ol cbb`told zv ~` f`lvonj{ q`vvokbj `z~f`ijv njqjlnold `l xc{o)
`zv f`lno~o`lv, H`{ juciqbj" Oh q{ofjv d` zq" ~ejl `z{ novq`vckbj olf`ij tobb nj)
f{jcvj, Oh ~ejy n`l~" ~ejl o~ tobb v~cy ~ej vcij, ^t` q`vvokbj vfjlc{o`v c{j ju)
qb`{jn cln ~ejo{ q{`kckbj z~f`ijv, Oh C ~ejl K, Oh l`~" ~ejl F, ^eov ov ~ej Ho{v~ F`l)
no~o`lcb %fczvcb `{ olnofc~oxj/ tej{j K ov ~ej jhhjf~{jvzb~`z~f`ij h`bb`told C cv
fczvj{jcv`lf`lno~o`l= C icy `{ icy l`~ kj ~{zj7 C icy `{ icy l`~ kj ~ej fcvj,
Fczvcb F`lno~o`lcb
Fczvj Jhhjf~
Oh C ~ejl K
Oh vcbjv f`l~olzj ~` hcbb ~ejl tj tobb ecxj ~` bj~ qj`qbj d`,
Oh ~ejy c{j v~obb eo{old ~ejl O tobb cqqby h`{ ~ej m`k,
Oh tj ljjn v`ij`lj" tjbb kj vz{j ~` fcbb y`z,
Oh tc~j{ bjxjbv f`l~olzj ~` {ovj" ~ejl ``nold tobb kjf`ij c f`ii`l ffz{{jlfj,
Olnofc~oxj F`lno~o`lcb
C icy `{ icyl`~ kj ~{zj
Jhhjf~
Oh C %ov ~ej fcvj/ ~ejl K %h`bb`tv/
F`zl~j{hcf~zcb F`lno~o`lcb
C ov l`~ ~{zj Jhhjf~
Oh C %tj{j ~{zj/ ~ejl K %t`zbn kj ~{zj/
Oh vcbjv tj{j ~` f`l~olzj ~` hcbb ~ejl tj t`zbn ecxj ~` bj~ qj`qbj d`,
Oh ~ejy tj{j eo{old ~ejl On cqqby h`{ ~ej m`k,
Oh tjn ljjnjn v`ij`lj tj t`zbnxj fcbbjn y`z,
Oh qj`qbj cf~oxjby qz{vzjn jlj{dy cln jlxo{`lijl~cb f`lvj{xc~o`l" ~ejl fecldjv
f`zbn kj jhhjf~jn,
Tey n` y`z tcl~ ~eov m`k0 Tey ve`zbn tj eo{j y`z0
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Oh O tj{j ~` dj~ ~eov m`k" O t`zbn k{old ~ej {ode~ juqj{ojlfj" ~ej {ode~ vgobbv cln ~ej c
~`l `h jlj{dy ~` ~ej ~ckbj,
^ej c{j vjxj{cb {jcv`lv tey y`z eo{j ij, Ho{v~by" iy vgobbvj~ cln szcboffifc~o`lv
ic~fe ~ej fclnonc~j q{`ffibj, Vjf`lnby" O ecxj c q{`xjl ~{cfg {jf`{n ol ~eov c{jc,
^eo{nby" oh O d`~ ~ej m`k ~ejl O t`zbn k{old qcvvo`l cln k`zlnbjvv jlj{dy ~` y`z{
kzvoljvv,
O ffi~ ~ej q{`ffibj nzj ~` iy ecxold kcdv `h juqj{ojlfj cln kjfczvj `h ~ej hcf~ ~ec~ O
ecxj ~ej {ode~ ~{colold cln szcboffifc~o`lv h`{ ~eov q`vo~o`l, Oh y`z eo{j ij" O tobb k{old
zlk{onbjn i`~oxc~o`l cln ~o{jbjvv jlj{dy ~` y`z{ ~jci,
8 Dj~~old o~ N`tl#
L`t ~{y cln q{`nzfj c f`qyfc~ ~ju~ h`{ ~ej ffi{v~ fczvc~o`l i`njb, Tjxj b``gjn c~
i`{j v`qeov~ofc~jn vciqbjv `h fczvc~o`l ~` kzobn `l ~ej olo~ocb i`njb, _`z{ vjf`ln
~ju~ fcl h`bb`t ~eov bjcn cln ol~{`nzfj cbb ~ej jbjijl~v zvjn v` hc{ %vzfe cv f`l)
fjvvo`lv" f`iqc{c~oxjv cln ~ej nohhj{jl~ h`{iv ol olh`{ic~o`l t{o~old/ qbzv fczvjv"
jhhjf~v cln f`lno~o`lcbv, _`z icy q{jhj{ ~ej voiqbofo~y `h ~ej kcvof i`njb, N`l~
h`{dj~ ~ej lzikj{old ol~{`nzfjn ol jc{boj{ zlo~v,
# _`z iode~ bogj ~` clvtj{ tec~ y`z t`zbn k{old ~` c f`iqcly oh y`z tj{jeo{jn, _`z iode~ bogj ~` vqjfzbc~j `l tec~ iode~ ecqqjl ol ~ej hz~z{j cv ~ej {jvzb~
`h fj{~col fo{fziv~clfjv, Tjxj ecn db`kcb tc{iold, E`t ck`z~ olf{jcvjn zvj h
nodo~cb ~jfel`b`dy0 Tec~ jhhjf~v tobb v`focb ijnoc ecxj ol ~ej t`{gqbcfj0 {y ~ej
f`qy)~ju~ ffi{v~ kcvjn l iolj, Voiqby fecldj vzkmjf~f`l~jl~, ejl ~{y y`z{ tl"
i`{j vqjfzbc~oxj" ~ju~, Zvj cbb h`{iv tjxj zvjn v` hc{#
# Ol ~eov vjf~o`l tjxj zvjn ~ej jBjc{lold zlo~ Juqj{ojlfjh{`i ^ej Kzvoljvv%ttt,hqjf,lj~/ cv `z{ kcvj, O~v f`iqclo`l ov cxcobckbj `l o^zljv cln cv c QNH,
Fejfg z~ ~ejvj cln zvj ~eji ~` q{`nzfj c f`qyfc~ ~ju~, Voiqby vzkv~o~z~j y`z{
f`l~jl~ h`{ iolj# @lfj y`zxj n`lj ~ec~ y`z fcl ~{y ~` kzobn `l ~ej kcvofv ky zvold
c nohhj{jl~ h{ciold i`njb h{`i Kzobnold l Kcvofv, I`xj h{`i djlj{cb v~c~jijl~v
~` vqjfoffif, Doxj juciqbjv ~` icgj y`z{vjbh fbjc{,
#
:
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