Gerald spreitzhofer
Transcript of Gerald spreitzhofer
Ultra-high resolution weather predictions for the Himalayas,
using MetGIS technologies
Dr. Gerald Spreitzhofer CEO, MetGIS GmbH, Vienna, Austria
University of Vienna, Inst. for Meteorology
Problem: Lack of accuracy over mountains
2. XXXXXXXXX Conventional Weather Forecasts:
• Decrease of risk of accidents
• Planning of resources
• Cost reduction for traffic operation centers
and other weather-dependent institutions
Improved forecasts important for:
Approach: MetGIS
Weather observations
High-resolution terrain
databases
(GIS-data)
MetGIS forecasts
Meteorological
forecast models
(Met.-data) Limit of conventional forecasts
Santiago de Chile
Boulder, USA WSL/SLF
Vienna, Austria
Nagaoka, Japan
Mendoza, Argentina
Alden/WELS
DGF, Univ.de Chile
CRICYT/IANIGLA
NIED/NISIS
IMG, Univ.Vienna
Davos, Switzerland
Lima, Peru
SENAMHI
• More then 10 years of international development efforts
• Combines specific expertise in meteorology, snow
science, GIS and software engineering
Base of MetGIS
Moscow, Russia
Mosc. State Univ.
Research Projects (basic and applied science):
• Cordination by University of Vienna
Operational application of MetGIS (Vienna):
• Processed by MetGIS GmbH
• First customer 2007, currently users in 10 countries
Cordination of MetGIS Developments
Forecasts are computed in forecast center of MetGIS in Vienna
Users access the
forecasts via
internet (e.g.
www.metgis.com).
Vienna, Austria
Forecast Access
GIS
•Terrain: 30 m resolution
•Vector data: boundaries, rivers,
roads, etc.
Global and Regional Met. Forecast Models
• default models: GFS + WRF
• Plugin of other models possible
MetGIS-Downscaling
•Refinement of meteorological
forecast through interaction with
terrain model
MetGIS Web Interface (www.metgis.com)
•Customized interface for applied users
•Only most important information
•Operational since 2006/07 winter season,
Forecast Production Process
Extensión de los pronósticos
• In realtime: ultra-high-resolution forecasts for 2oo regions
world-wide
• 8 languages (English, French, Spanish, Italian, German,
Slowenian, Russian, Japanese)
MetGIS: World-wide Forecast Coverage
Antarctic Peninsula
Southern Africa
Vinson Massif
Lakes Region
Central Chile/Arg.
Peru
Mexico
Colombia
Alaska
British Colombia
California
Colorado
Bolivia
Eastern Africa
Morocco
Central Europe
UK
Greenland Scandinavia
Turkey
Caucasus
SE Australia
New Zealand
Iran
Central Asia
Himalaya
Tienshan
Eastern Asia
Kamchatka
Bhutan
Western Bhutan, BHU Sikkim, IND
Mt. Everest, NEP
Nepal
Annapurna, NEP
Uttarakhand, IND
Northern India
Central Tibet
Manali, IND
Srinagar, IND
K2, PAK
Karakoram Highway, PAK
Forecast Coverage: Himalaya
Khumbu, NEP
Nanga
Parbat, PAK
Ultra-high-resolution forecast, several updates per day!
MetGIS Web Interface (www.metgis.com)
Forecast example:
www.metgis.com Example: fresh snow forecast map for Portillo (Chile)
Retrieval of exact forecast values
www.metgis.com
4cm: 3hr-Snowfall until Su, 00 UTC
Numerical values are always visible
beside mouse cursor!
MetGIS Web Interface: www.metgis.com Fresh Snow Forecast: Portillo (Chile) Fresh Snow Forecast: Portillo (Chile)
www.metgis.com
8cm: 3hr-Snwofall until Su, 00 UTC
Retrieval of exact forecast values
13 cm: 3hr-Snwofall until Su, 00 UTC
Retrieval of exact forecast values
www.metgis.com 7-day point forecasts always pop up when
clicking the mouse over specific points
Portillo
Point Forecasts
www.metgis.com
Portillo
Example of 7-day point forecast
Nepal snowstorm disaster
• 14th of October 2014
• More than 1m of snow in high elevations
• Around 50 dead people in the Annapurna and Dhaulagiri regions
MetGIS Forecast Example
Himalaya Precip. Forecast, 13/14 Oct 2014
Annapurna Snow Forecast, 13/14 Oct 2014
Annapurna Snow Forecast, 13/14 Oct 2014
Pronósticos lineales
13 Oct 2014, 03 UTC
MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La, 13/14 Oct 2014
Pronósticos lineales MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La
13 Oct 2014, 09 UTC
Pronósticos lineales MetGIS Route Forecasts
13 Oct 2014, 12 UTC
MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La
Pronósticos lineales MetGIS Route Forecast
14 Oct 2014, 12 UTC
MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La
Pronósticos lineales MetGIS Route Forecast
14 Oct 2014, 15 UTC
MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La
Pronósticos lineales MetGIS Route Forecast
14 Oct 2014, 21 UTC
MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La
Pronósticos lineales MetGIS Route Forecast
15 Oct 2014, 00 UTC
MetGIS Forecast, Thorong La
Recent MetGIS Developments
1. APIs (Application Programming Interfaces): Realtime MetGIS forecast data can be included in other systems (no need to use MetGIS Web Interface!)
2. Fully zoomable forecast maps (currently only for the Alps)
Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow
Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow
Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow
Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow
Zoomable Web-Maps: Fresh Snow
Edelweißspitze (2572m)
12 cm
8 cm
6 cm
2 cm
0,5 cm
Station: Schmittenhöhe (1953 m), Austria
Period: winter 2011/2012
Forecast Range (Days) 1 2 3 4 5
% of forecasts with errors < 1 deg 60,9 56,1 43,2 36,7 28,6
% of forecasts with errors < 2 deg 86,2 82,4 75,9 60,1 53,5
% of forecasts with errors < 3 deg 95,8 95,8 91,2 79,9 72,3
Mean absolute error (deg) 1,03 1,15 1,36 1,82 2,32
Correlation coefficient 0,98 0,98 0,97 0,95 0,90
Temperature Forecast Verification
Snowfall observed at Los Pelambres Depth of
observed
fresh snow
[cm]
Depth of
fresh snow
forecast by
MetGIS [cm] From (start time) Until (end time)
2009-05-29 09:00 2009-05-30 00:00 9 6
2009-06-28 04:30 2009-06-30 03:00 103 87
2009-07-14 11:00 2009-07-15 07:00 12 21
2009-07-21 07:00 2009-07-22 13:00 55 53
2009-07-31 23:00 2009-08-01 04:00 4 1
2009-08-15 03:00 2009-08-16 04:00 51 89
2009-08-17 19:00 2009-08-19 11:00 44 92
2009-09-06 10:00 2009-09-06 23:30 4 3
2009-09-07 03:30 2009-09-07 12:00 6 5
Most important snowstorms hitting the station
Los Pelambres (Chile) during a winter season.
Fresh Snow Forecast Verification
Usuarios
• Traffic operation centers
• Ski and avalanche control centers
• Tourism
• Open-pit mining industry
• State meteorological services
• Private users:
Everybody involved in outdoor
activities (mainly Europe): hikers,
skiers, climbers, bikers, etc.
Typical Users of MetGIS Forcasts
• MetGIS used in Himalaya Kingdom of Bhutan since 2011
• Implemented through project of Austrian Devel. Agency
Bhutan: State Meteorological Service
MetGIS training class for
Bhutan meteorologists
• MetGIS used by SASE (Snow and Avalanche Study Est.)
since 2010
• Forecasts for Indian Himalayas (including WRF model)
• Drive simulation models of the snow cover.
India: Government of India
• MetGIS is a unique forecast system with specific skills
for mountain weather forecasts (most NWS: no
particular experience in this field!)
• World-wide successful application, incl. Himalayas
(India, Bhutan)
Nepal:
• MetGIS fully operational, several updates per day
• MetGIS could be used for several purposes
(operational forecasting and research, driving
hydrological models, etc.)
Summary and Conclusions
Thank you
for your
attention!
For more information:
Visit www.metgis.com
Himalaya:
www.metgis.com/en/re
gions/himalaya/
MetGIS