GEOTHERMAL ENERGY IN EUROPE AND THE REST OF THE WORLD · GEOTHERMAL ENERGY GLOBAL DIRECT USE 2015...
Transcript of GEOTHERMAL ENERGY IN EUROPE AND THE REST OF THE WORLD · GEOTHERMAL ENERGY GLOBAL DIRECT USE 2015...
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
IN EUROPE AND
THE REST OF THE WORLD
GEOTERMIKONFERENCE PÅ CHRISTIANSBORG
ALEXANDER RICHTER | THINKGEOENERGY
19 FEBRUARY 2018
889
542
676
710
944
951
980
1,100
1,809
1,868
3,591
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Other
Japan
Kenya
Iceland
Italy
Mexico
New Zealand
Turkey
Indonesia
Philippines
United States
TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIESINSTALLED CAPACITY - MW (FEBRUARY 2018) – 14,060 MW IN TOTAL
Source: TGE Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015), JESDER (2017) Enerji Atlasi (2017)
1 GW Country Club
Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015)
TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIESINSTALLED CAPACITY & PROJECTS - MW (February 2018)
1,423
8
944
710
980
951
676
1,100
1,868
3,591
1,809
2,817
987
145
495
285
456
1,037
798
1,651
1,248
3,958
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Other
Ethiopia
Italy
Iceland
New Zealand
Mexico
Kenya
Turkey
Philippines
United States
Indonesia
Installed
Projects & permitted
1 GW Country Club
Future members
GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIESINSTALLED CAPACITY - MW (FEBRUARY 2018)
1
1
2
3
8
16
27
29
40
42
48
56
97
109
205
205
542
676
710
944
951
980
1,100
1,809
1,868
3,591
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Austria
Australia
France
Hungary
Ethiopia
Guadeloupe
China
Portugal
Germany
Guatemala
Chile
Papua New…
Russia
Nicaragua
El Salvador
Costa Rica
Japan
Kenya
Iceland
Italy
Mexico
New Zealand
Turkey
Indonesia
Philippines
United States
Source: TGE Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015), Enerji Atlasi (2017)
2,712
250
285
456
495
798
987
1,037
1,248
1,651
3,958
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
Other
Guatemala
New Zealand
Mexico
Iceland
Turkey
Ethiopia
Kenya
United States
Philippines
Indonesia
Source: TGE Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015), JESDER (2017) Enerji Atlasi (2017)
TOP 10 GEOTHERMAL COUNTRIESBY PROJECTS UNDER DEVELOPMENT - MW (JANUARY 2018)
48
577
1,037
1,020
684
1,823
4,493
4,241
620
798
354
1,139
2,234
1,337
1,858
5,836
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
South America
Cent. America & Caribbean
Aus., NZ & Pacific
Middle East
Africa
Europe
North America
Asia
Installed
Projects & permitted
Source: ThinkGeoEnergy Research (2017), GEA (2016), IGA (2015)
GEOTHERMAL REGIONAL MARKETSINSTALLED CAPACITY & PROJECTS - MWe (OCTOBER 2017)
GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL POTENTIALPOWER GENERATION POTENTIAL (MWe)
Sources: ThinkGeoEnergy, Geothermal Energy Association, IGA, ChevronNote: Installed Capacity of 2017 [2015], resource estimates combined (1999-2012) – IGA estimates a conservative total potential of 70,000 MW and with
technology improvements (extended use of low heat and EGS resources) at around 140,000 MW in power generation capacity.
Current installed capacity
Projects & inferred resources
High temperature regions
Hydrothermal resource estimates
Installed Resources
North America
4,496
32,200
6,423
Installed Resources
Cent. America & Caribbean
577
27,400
618
Installed Resources
Europe
1,826
3,400
1,271
Installed Resources
Africa
684
11,600
2,249
Installed Resources
South America
48
30,800
730
Installed Resources
Asia
4,241
70,900
5,836
Installed Resources
Aus., NZ & Pacific
1,037
7,700
666
Installed Resources
Middle East
1,1002,550
853
TURKEY GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT INSTALLED POWER GENERATION CAPACITY 1984-2018
15 15 23 23 3077 94 117 163
350442
660859
1,109
271
527
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Source: JESDER (2018), Enerji Atlasi (2018), TGE Research (2018)
15 8 747 17 23
47
187
92
218
200
250
271
30
110
175
257 2
20420
60
141
18720
3 20
11555
35
210
165
255
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT – INDONESIA VS. TURKEYINSTALLED CAPACITY ADDITIONS BY YEAR (MW) + PLANNED 2018
Sources: TGE Research (2018), Pertamina (2018), Ifnaldi Sikumbang (2017), JESDER (2018)
Indonesia installed
capacity 1,809 MW
Turkey installed
capacity 1,100 MW
Indonesia
Capacity added
Average
plant size: 49 MW
Planned capacity
Turkey
Capacity added
Average
plant size: 19 MW
Planned capacity
ENERGY DEMAND EUROPEAN UNION2013 FINAL DEMAND BY SECTOR IN EUR28: 14,000 TWH
Source: IHS Energy Multi-client Study Beyond the Flame: The Transformation of Europe’s Heat Sector (2016)
Heating & Cooling -
Residential
20%
Heating & Cooling -
Commercial
9%
Heating & Cooling -
Industry
15%
Feedstock
6%
Commercial - Other
4%
Industry - Other
8%
Residential - Other
5%
Transport
33%
2013 Final Demand by Sector in EUR28 (%)
HEATING DEMAND 44%
CHINATHE $90 BILLION PUSH FOR SMOKE FREE CITIES
GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGLOBAL DIRECT USE 2015 (UTILIZATION IN % BASED ON TJ/ YEAR)
Source: Lund, J. Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2015 – Worldwide Review (IGA, WGC 2015)
Heat pumps
55.30%Space Heating
15.01%
Greenhouse Heating
4.54%
Aquaculture
2.03%
Agricultural drying
0.35%
Industrial uses
1.78%
Bathing & Swimming,
20.31%
Cooling/
snow melting
0.44%
Others
0.25%
Direct use utilization with heat pumps 2015 (TJ/ yr)
Bathing &
swimming
44.74%
Space heating
36.98%
Greenhouse heating
8.96%
Aquaculture
3.40%
Industrial use
2.99%
Cooling/ snow melting
1.76%
Agriculture
drying
0.79%
Others
0.39%
Direct use utilization without heat pumps 2015 (TJ/ yr)
GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGLOBAL DIRECT USE CAPACITY – MW THERMAL
1,845 5,27515,384
33,124
49,898
68,000
6,8109,870
12,885
15,359
20,431
27,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 (e)
Other direct use
Heat pumps
Source: Lund, J. Direct Utilization of Geothermal Energy 2015 – Worldwide Review (IGA, WGC 2015)
Estimates
GEOTHERMAL ENERGYEUROPEAN OVERVIEW
Source: EGEC Geothermal Market Report 2016 (2017)
2,200
European Installed Capacity – Geothermal Power & District Heating (2016
European Installed Capacity –Geothermal District Heating (2016
GEOTHERMAL ENERGYGEOTHERMAL DISTRICT HEATING PLANTS IN OPERATION & PLANNED
Source: EGEC Geothermal Market Report 2016 (2017)
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
Technical
• Resource
• Drilling
• Resource risks
• Equipment
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
Business, Finance …
• Financial structures
• Risk mitigation (insurance)
• Development time
• Off-taker
• Structure of projects
THINKGEOENERGY
LEADING IN NEWS AND RESEARCH ON
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
Focus on power generation and direct use … also internationally in
Spanish (PiensaGeotermia.com) and in Turkish (JeotermalHaberler.com)
CONTACT
THINKGEOENERGY
REYKJAVIK/ ICELAND
ALEXANDER RICHTER
+354 618 5304
@thinkgeoenergy
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