1984-2014INSURANCE & THE WORLD

FROM ORWELL TO KAFKA?

As seen by GEORGE GRISHIN

THE COLD WINTER OF 2013-14 HAS CHANGED THE WORLD AS I KNEW IT FOREVER.

IN MY WORST NIGHTMARE I COULDN´T IMAGINE RUSSIANS AND UKRAINIANS BECOMING ENEMIES.

DURING MY 30 YEARS I SAW MY MAIN TASK AS BUILDING EAST-WEST BRIDGES.

AND TRYING TO ACHIEVE UNDERSTANDING. I AM VERY SORRY THAT UKRAINE IS NOW SUFFERING.

I WISH I WERE SUMMING UP IN 2013

1984 TOP 10 WESTERN MUSIC: STILL LOVING YOU / I WANT TO BREAK FREE / LIKE A VIRGIN

ALBUM – THRILLER. FILMS: THE TERMINATOR / THE NEVERENDING

STORY / AMADEUS / ONCE UPON A TIME IN AMERICA / TOP SECRET! /

RUSSIAN FILMS OF 1984: ПОКАЯНИЕ / ФОРМУЛА ЛЮБВИ / ЛЮБОВЬ И ГОЛУБИ

RUSSIAN SONGS 1982-86: Я ТЕБЯ НИКОГДА НЕ ЗАБУДУ / ТРАВА У ДОМА / ВЕРНИСАЖ / МЛН. АЛЫХ РОЗ / ВАЛЬС-БОСТОН / РОК-Н-РОЛЛ МЕРТВ

WHAT HAPPENNED 30 YEARS AGO?

INDIRA GHANDI ASSASSINATED / YURIY ANDROPOV DIED

TETRIS , THE MAC, CD PLAYERS RONALD REAGAN GAFFE : "My fellow Americans, I'm

pleased to tell you that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in 5 minutes”.

DECEMBER – MARGARET THATCHER MET MIKHAIL GORBACHEV

GCSE INTRODUCED INSTEAD OF O-LEVELS AND CSE SARAJEVO AND LOS ANGELES OLYMPICS MEXICO REFINERY, PHILIPPINES TYPHOON, BHOPAL

CARBIDE DISASTERS

TOP EVENTS 1984

FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF A RUSSIAN / UKRAINIAN “BRIT”

PERESTROYKA AND GLASNOST 1985-1989 DISBANDING OF THE USSR IN 1991 THE END OF THIS BIPOLAR SYSTEM IS FELT

THROUGHOUT THE WORLD CREATION OF NUMEROUS INDEPENDENT STATES

IN EASTERN EUROPE – 29 WHERE THERE WERE 9 IN 1984

“COLOURED REVOLUTIONS” IN ASIA AND AFRICA BRING CHAOS, NOT ORDER

THE MOST IMPORTANT EVENTS 1984-2014 IN POLITICS

INTERNET, E-MAILS, MOBILE PHONES, SKYPE PRICE OF OIL WENT FROM $27 TO $95 DETERRENT SOVIET SYSTEM - HOUSE PRICES AFFORDABLE IN

THE UK. DISBANDING USSR IN 1991 - HOUSE PRICES UNLEASHED IN

1993  1991 - AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE IN THE UK - 53,635. 2014 -

186,544 GROWTH 3.47 TIMES - FOR 247%  AVERAGE SALARY 1991 - 19,000. 2014 - 38,000 GROWTH 2 TIMES – 100%  HOUSE PRICE TO SALARY RATIO - 2.8 TO 4.9 OTHER SOURCE: A HOUSE COSTS 7 TIMES THE AVERAGE

ANNUAL SALARY OF THE BUYER

THE MOST IMPORTANT EVENTS 1984-2014 IN ECONOMICS

CREATION OF STRONG REGIONAL MARKETS – SINGAPORE, BERMUDA, EASTERN EUROPE

APPEARANCE OF INTERESTING NEW LINES TRADITIONAL PRODUCTS – PROPERTY, MARINE,

AVIATION - EXPANDING VERY SLOWLY – SAME ITC, ICC..

WORLD INSURANCE PREMIUM IN 2013: $2.6 TRILLION LIFE, $2.0 TRILLION NON-LIFE

WORLD INSURANCE PREMIUM IN 1984: $0.24 TRILLION LIFE, $0.3 TRILLION NON-LIFE

TOTAL FROM $0.55 TO $4.64 TRLN – 8.4 TIMES! EUROPE EMERGING – FROM $ 2.9 BN IN 1991 TO $ 75

BN IN 2013 – 25 TIMES!

MOST IMPORTANT EVENTS 1984-2014 IN INSURANCE

1917 - OCTOBER REVOLUTION / 1922 - USSR 1924 – IN LONDON A SOVIET INSURANCE

COMPANY TO COVER RUSSIAN WOOD EXPORTS IS SET UP WITH HELP FROM WILLIS

BLACK SEA & BALTIC GENERAL INSURANCE CO 1925-1998

IN 1927 – SOVAG / SCHWARZMEER…IN GERMANY IN 1956 GARANT VERSICHERUNG IN VIENNA BY 1984: OFFICES IN INDIA, CUBA, FINLAND;

AGENCIES IN MANY COUNTRIES INCLUDING GREECE, LEBANON, CANADA, JAMAICA, MALI

INSURANCE IN USSR / RUSSIA

INTERNAL: GOSSTRAKH INTERNATIONAL: INGOSSTRAKH INTEGRATION WITH THE WEST WAS DEVELOPING

ALONG THREE CHANNELS: REINSURANCE OF SOVIET RISKS IN THE WEST,

MAINLY CARGO, MARINE AND AVIATION COINSURANCE OF P&I RISKS CLAIMS HANDLING FOR THE SOVIET EXPORT

AND IMPORT CARGOES WORLDWIDE. I WAS LUCKY: P&I MEANT MARKETING,

REINSURANCE, STATISTICS, CLAIMS – AND REAL SHIPS & PEOPLE

INSURANCE IN THE USSR

BALTIC SHIPPING – 183 VESSELS, LOSSES IN 30 CURRENCIES, WORKING DIRECTLY WITH PORTS IN 20 COUNTRIES, COINSURED WITH UK P&I

ACADEMY OF SCIENCE, METEOROLOGY AGENCY, MINISTRY OF GEOLOGY, FISHING FLEET – USCG CERTS.

FIRST NON-CLUB P&I POLICY FROM CRIMEA – 1988 TT CLUB INTRODUCTION IN 1989 – FREIGHT

FORWARDERS, ROAD CARRIERS, PORTS WORKING ON THE FIRST LAW ON INSURANCE,

INTRODUCING THE TERMS SOLVENCY MARGIN AND TECHNICAL RESERVES

PhD ON COMPARING “COMMERCIALS” & MUTUALS

WHAT I DEALT WITH WHILST IN MOSCOW IN 1984-1990

MY TEACHERS INGOSSTRAKH – MR. RYABININ (SOVAG FOR 15 YEARS, WOE

P&I DIRECTOR), MR. SAFRONOF (BLACKSEA FOR 10 YEARS) P&I – UK P&I AND WOE – STEPHEN JAMES, JAMES BAKER,

KARL LUMBERS, MICHAEL SUMMERSKILL, MICHAEL NEWBERRY, ANDREW BARKER

SHIPPING – MR. SOKOLOV OF BALTIC SHIPPING TT CLUB – JONATHAN IGNARSKI, ALAN WILKINS LAW – INCE & CO, LAWRENCE GRAHAM, CLYDE & CO SURVEYING – MINTON TREHARNE MARKET & REINSURANCE – S. AUBREY-JONES OAKESHOTT TEAM + NEWCHARTER & JOINT TANKERS

TEAMS MY FAMILY, FRIENDS AND RELATIVES FULL LIST – MY BROCHURE “TVIRDUALISM”

THANK YOU, ALL!

PRIVATE INSURANCE ALLOWED IN the USSR in 1988 FIRST COMPANIES – ASKO & ROSSIYA NUMBER OF RUSSIAN INSURERS: 2 - 2,950 IN 1996 -

583 IN 2014 ALL LINES OF BUSINESS INTRODUCED INSURANCE PROFESSION RE-CREATED DURING 1990S FROM ACTUARIES TO UNDERWRITERS TO SURVEYORS 1991 – COLLAPSE OF THE USSR, 15 INDEPENDENT

MARKETS CREATED LAWS ON INSURANCE ADOPTED INSURANCE SUPERVISION SYSTEM ESTABLISHED

BASED ON WESTERN IDEAS OF SOLVENCY MARGIN, ETC.

RAPID DEVELOPMENT 1988-2000

15 COUNTRIES: 3 BALTIC – 3 SLAV – 3 CAUCASUS – 5 ASIA RUSSIA – GW PREMIUMS – $ 19 BN IN 2008 - $26.7 BN IN 2013 UKRAINE $ 3.2 - $ 3.4 KAZAKHSTAN $ 1.3 - $ 1.8 LITHUANIA $ 0.85 - $ 0.75 BELARUS $ 0.45 - $ 0.67 LATVIA $ 0.74 - $ 0.62 ESTONIA $ 0.43 - $ 0.57 AZERBAIJAN $ 0.23 - $ 0.50 GEORGIA 0.26 / UZBEKISTAN 0.15 / MOLDOVA 0.09 / ARMENIA

0.08 / TURKMENISTAN 0.08 / TADJIKISTAN 0.04 / KYRGYZSTAN 0.02

WORLD 4,640 REGION 94.6 / 15 COUNTRIES 35.7

DIFFERENT MARKETS

2008 – 2013, IN US DOLLARS WORLD + 11 % REGION (CEE + SEE + CIS) + 3 % 15 COUNTRIES + 31 % RUSSIA + 36 % UKRAINE + 6 % KAZAKHSTAN + 36 % LITHUANIA – 12 % BELARUS + 50 % LATVIA – 16 % ESTONIA + 32 % AZERBAIJAN + 114 % GEORGIA + 55 % / UZBEKISTAN + 154 % / MOLDOVA + 18 % /

ARMENIA + 282 % / TURKMENISTAN + 149 % / TADJIKISTAN +54% / KYRGYZSTAN + 159 %

GROWING MARKETS

VIG 6.75 % (17 cts) PZU 5.80 % (5) Allianz 4.76 % (11) Generali 3.87 % (10) AXA 2.63 % (9) Top 5 Russian (RGS/SGS/IGS/ReGa/Sgl) 10.4 %

(8) Groupama 1.18 % (4) Uniqa 1.12 % (15) Triglav 0.56 % (6)

REGION’S LARGEST PLAYERS

MAIN TWO TRENDS IN 2000S – COOPERATING WITH THE RUSSIAN MARKET OR BUILDING BARRIERS AGAINST IT

REGIONAL REINSURANCE DEVELOPPED FOREIGN-OWNED COMPANIES ESTABLISHED AND NOW

LEADING IN A NUMBER OF MARKETS (BALTICS, UKRAINE)

RATING REQUIREMENTS DISALLOWING REINSURANCE INTO RUSSIA – KAZAKHSTAN

PROTECTION OF NATIONAL MARKET – BELARUS WITH NATIONAL REINSURANCE COMPANY

CHANGING LEGISLATION – UKRAINE, BARRIERS IN 2000S, WORKING TOGETHER TILL 2014

A NEW SYSTEM IN EMERGENCE NOW

REGIONAL RI MARKET

GROWING UKRAINE, LESSER RESTRICTED BELARUS, INTERNATIONAL KAZAKSHTAN – FACULTATIVE PLACINGS INTO RUSSIA TO BE REPLACED BY WORKING DIRECTLY WITH THE WEST

RISKS RECEIVED THROUGH RUSSIAN TREATIES AND XLS – NOW COMING INTO LONDON AND THE CONTINENT

RATES ARE QUITE LOW – A TRADE CENTRE AT 0.0022%

BUT THE WILL AND THE NECESSITY TO COOPERATE WITH LONDON IS THERE

LIKE IN 1924 LONDON HELPED THE NEW INSURANCE INDUSTRY OF RUSSIA – IT IS NOW FOR LONDON TO SUPPORT UKRAINE, KAZAKHSTAN AND OTHERS

WHAT THE MARKETS NEED NOW

INSURANCE IS A PEACE-LOVING PROFESSION – EVEN WAR AND TERRORISM UNDERWRITERS WOULD SAY SO

INTERNATIONAL INSURANCE IS A FRIENDLY PLACE EASTERN EUROPE IS THE NEAREST NEIGHBOUR

OF WESTERN EUROPE IN THE TIMES OF TROUBLES EASTERN EUROPE

NEEDS UNDERSTANDING AND SUPPORT WE HOPE LONDON CAN DELIVER – AS IT DID FOR

90 YEARS THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ATTENTION! COME TO SEE US IN KIEV – ALMATY – VALENCIA &

DENIA – MINORIES!

WHAT I LEARNED IN 30 YEARS