George DennisApplied Portfolio Management Activity 23/2/15

1. GDP Growth (in% y-o-y)

2012 GDP Growth2013 E GDP GrowthTrend 2012-20132014 E GDP GrowthTrend 2013-2014

Global3.23.20.04.10.9

Developed Countries (avg)0.20.20.01.41.2

United States2.81.6-1.22.91.3

Euro Area-0.5-0.40.11.01.4

Germany0.90.5-0.41.51.0

France0.00.10.10.80.7

Italy-2.4-1.70.70.42.1

Spain-1.6-1.20.40.82.0

Japan2.01.7-0.32.00.3

United Kingdom0.21.10.91.50.4

Emerging Economies (avg)3.63.5-0.14.30.8

Russia3.42.2-1.23.41.2

China7.87.3-0.57.40.1

India5.14.9-0.25.60.7

Brazil0.92.92.03.20.3

Mexico3.81.5-2.33.31.8

Poland2.01.6-0.42.40.8

Turkey2.34.01.75.01.0

As can be seen in the chart above, most economies are growing in terms of GDP. Specifically, most developed countries, except for Spain and Italy were expected to increase their GDP in 2012 and 2013. Furthermore, with the exception of the United States, Germany, and Japan, all developed countries were expected to increase their growth rate from 2012 to 2013. Meanwhile, and developing economies grew in 2012 and were expected to continue in 2013 and 2014. Furthermore, some developing economies were expected to increase their growth rate from 2012 to 2013 while most others were only expected to decrease very slightly, with the exception of Mexico, Russia, and China who were all expected to decrease their growth rate by at least 0.5%. Looking forward into 2013/2014, all GDPs were expected to increase their growth rate over the previous year. However, Brazil, Turkey, and The United kingdom are all expected to decrease the rate at which their GDP is growing. For the most part, growth rates are increasing across the globe, with the average global GDP growth rate increasing by almost one percent between 2013 and 2014. Between 2012 and 2013, Brazil, Turkey, and The United Kingdom were expected to increase growth at a much higher rate than other economies, however as the global economy was expected to recover, growth and growth trend across the world was expected to stabilize and continue to increase for all economies. One exception to this are Italy and Spain who are expected to increase their growth rate in 2013 and 2014, but will still trail other economies, especially emerging economies in terms of GDP growth rate. Across all three years, developed countries are expected to lag behind emerging economies by about 3% in terms of actual GDP growth. However, developed economies are still increasing the rate at which they are growing which is a positive sign. Meanwhile, emerging economies are not expected to grow as much in 2013 as they did in 2012, but are expected to rebound and increase growth rates by an average of 0.8% in 2014.

2. GDP (PPP) in Billions USDPopulation in Millions Pax(a)GDP per Capita in USD

2013(1)2013 E (2)(1)/(2)

Global

Developed Countries

United States16,720,000316.2 52,877.93

Euro Area15,850,000506.0 31,324.11

Germany3,227,00080.6 40,037.22

France2,276,00063.9 35,618.15

Italy1,805,00059.8 30,183.95

Spain1,389,00046.6 29,806.87

Japan4,729,000127.3 37,148.47

United Kingdom2,387,00064.1 37,238.69

Emerging Economies

Russia2,553,000143.5 17,790.94

China13,390,0001357.4 9,864.45

India4,990,0001276.5 3,909.13

Brazil2,416,000195.5 12,358.06

Mexico1,845,000117.6 15,688.78

Poland814,00038.5 21,142.86

Turkey1,167,00076.1 15,335.09

(a) - data obtained from http://www.prb.org/pdf13/2013-population-data-sheet_eng.pdf

Ranking by GDP in Billions of USD

1United States16,720,000

2Euro Area15,850,000

3China13,390,000

4India4,990,000

5Japan4,729,000

6Germany3,227,000

7Russia2,553,000

8Brazil2,416,000

9United Kingdom2,387,000

10France2,276,000

11Mexico1,845,000

12Italy1,805,000

13Spain1,389,000

14Turkey1,167,000

15Poland814,000

Ranking by Population in Millions of inhabitants

1China1357.4

2India1276.5

3Euro Area506.0

4United States316.2

5Brazil195.5

6Russia143.5

7Japan127.3

8Mexico117.6

9Germany80.6

10Turkey76.1

11United Kingdom64.1

12France63.9

13Italy59.8

14Spain46.6

15Poland38.5

Ranking by GDP per capita in USD

1United States 52,877.93

2Germany 40,037.22

3United Kingdom 37,238.69

4Japan 37,148.47

5France 35,618.15

6Euro Area 31,324.11

7Italy 30,183.95

8Spain 29,806.87

9Poland 21,142.86

10Russia 17,790.94

11Mexico 15,688.78

12Turkey 15,335.09

13Brazil 12,358.06

14China 9,864.45

15India 3,909.13

(a) United States, China, India, Japan, Germany(b) China, India, United States, Brazil, Russia(c) United States, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan, France

3. There seems to be a significant relation between high GDP and Population and high GDP growth rates. The U.S., China, and India are top three in both GDP and Population while simultaneously achieving the highest rates of growth in their respective economic zones. In a sense, the biggest are getting bigger. However, when looking at GDP per Capita, with the exception of the U.S. and maybe Japan, it seems like those that are leading are only seeing modest gains in GDP (usually