Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces...

26

Transcript of Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces...

Page 1: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...
Page 2: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in

Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta LanceSenior Portfolio ManagerIslamic Global Equities

 This material is solely for the attention of profes sional investors (see more details and definitions at the end of the pres entation).

Page 3: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Principal Global Equities Performances 2014

2. Global Equities – Where to invest now?

3. Global Resources Equities – Principal points to retain

4. Conclusion & Appendices

Islamic Global Resources 3

Page 4: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

 Sources: Datastream, Amundi Research

Global Equity market 2014 performances YTDPrincipal Global Equities Performances 2014

4

MSCI Index Price as of 27 Aug. 2014

1 Day 1 Week 1 Month YTD

USA 1,914 0.0% 0.7% 1.2% 8.2%Japan 786 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% -2.4%Europe 1,396 0.1% 2.2% 0.4% 3.1%EMU 187 0.1% 3.3% 0.3% 2.6%France 1,538 0.1% 3.6% 1.2% 2.5%Germany 842 -0.2% 2.6% -0.8% -2.7%Italy 740 0.5% 5.6% -1.6% 10.6%Spain 996 0.1% 4.0% -0.4% 12.2%Emerging markets 51,072 0.4% 0.6% 1.9% 8.3% Brazil 230 1.9% 3.5% 4.9% 14.5% China 66 -0.4% -0.8% 2.0% 5.4% South Africa 1,297 -0.3% 1.0% 2.3% 13.9% South Korea 590 0.3% -0.6% 0.0% 0.1% India 1,000 0.4% 0.5% 2.1% 22.4% Russia 746 0.2% 0.5% 3.5% -5.8% Taiwan 346 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 14.2%World AC 468 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 6.3%

Equity Market Snapshot

if > to MSCI World AC

Islamic Global Resources

Page 5: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Islamic Global Resources 5

1. Principal Global Equities Performances 2014

2. Global Equities – with growing geopolitical risk where to invest now?

3. Global Resources Equities – Principal points to retain

4. Conclusion & Appendices

Page 6: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Global Equities – Where to invest now?

Islamic Global Resources 6

 With growing geopolitical risk where should we inve st? � Which geographic exposure?

– Emerging markets or OECD countries?– Invest East to Asia or West to the Americas?

� Which sector exposure?– Technology, Media and Telecoms - the winning millennium performance 1998-2002

– BRIC and Emerging markets – Infrastructure, Commodities and Demographic boom 2003 – 2007

 or

– US Energy miracle and American Manufacturing Renaissance 2011

Page 7: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Global Equities – Where to invest now?

Islamic Global Resources 7

� If Geopolitical risk is growing…what does this mean for investors ?– Russian/Ukraine is a threat to European confidence and economic growth– Largest fall in European gas reserves since 2009 and European gas prices have reversed their 5

year slump as concerns that tensions between Russian and Ukraine will again disrupt flows to the region

– Gas for next month delivery in the UK +21% over rec ent weeks – Middle Eastern violence is increasing the threat for future global Oil and Gas supplies– Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Turkey is resulting in forward Oil prices 2-5 years out rising $10 over last 6

months.

� Global economic growth is looking very patchy (Europe/Japan/China …) while US remains very resilient. – Q2 earnings quality has so far been better in the US than elsewhere

Page 8: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Global Equities – Where to invest now?

Islamic Global Resources 8

…. if we add today’s geopolitical risk, who will ben efit ?

Europe relies on Russia/Ukraine for 25/30% of its e nergy supplies so the conflict is resulting in a tu rnaround in the 5 years slump in European gas prices …

Asia in particular India and Japan depend very str ongly on energy supplies from Middle East so forwar d oil prices (2-5 years) have moved +$10 over the last 6 months.

Energy markets are anticipating future supply tensi on …

Page 9: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Global Equities – Where to invest now?

Islamic Global Resources 9

 US still have a strong manufacturing advantage

Big differences remain, with Asian LNG very stretched, US prices low and Europe, in the middle of the range We should not under-estimate the value of “independe nt energy supplies”

Page 10: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Our scenario for 2014/2015

Islamic Global Resources 10

Global “Equity” Story is STILL mostly in US

� US energy revolution already in play with 4 years of high growth in shale oil and gas production. This is changing the game for the US economy

� More energy independence– Deep and lasting benefits for downstream industrial activities

– US manufacturing renaissance– US shareholder activism boosting undervalued assets

BUT

� Multinational Integrated Oil & Gas majors will also continue to create value for investors

Page 11: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Our scenario for 2014/2015

Islamic Global Resources 11

Base Metals: Demand, Supply and Politics

Demand & Supply

Politics

� In a world of austerity, demand will be less Infrastructure driven

� In a world of robust demand for Energy, “Energy efficiency” is the key word

� Value added and creation of jobs is starting to have an impact on the global equation

� Indonesia will promote exports of the processed product – not the raw material

� Nickel, Alumina, Copper

� Processing will create jobs domestically

� US uses its ample resources supplies to create jobs in American manufacturing and boost its exports markets

� Refining, Petrochemicals, Automobile

Re-balancing the global economy

Page 12: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Our scenario for 2014/2015

Islamic Global Resources 12

� Growing Geopolitical risk should be positive for Gold� Bumpy global economic recovery

� Relative stability for Gold (trading range $1250-1450)� In an environment of stable physical Gold, dynamic management will demonstrate to

financial markets their capacity to create value for shareholders

� M&A is returning to the sector – a further catalyst for “value creation”

Gold Mining equities ….are not a lost cause

Page 13: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Islamic Global Resources 13

1. Principal Global Equities Performances 2014

2. Global Equities – Where to invest now?

3. Global Resources Equities – Principal points to re tain

4. Conclusion & Appendices

Page 14: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Principal Global Resources Equities themes to retain

Source: Factset / Amundi, as of 26/08/2014

Past performance is not an indication of future returns

The importance of Technology and Innovation today

Islamic Global Resources 14

� Global Resources Equities do NOT require a strong appreciation of the underlyingCommodity to see good upside

� Global Resources Equities are driven by growth in cash flow and value creation for shareholders

� A result of corporate action & dynamic management – not underlying Commodity price

Page 15: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Principal Global Resources Equities themes 2014 to retain

Global “Natural Resources”

Islamic Global Resources 15

� A natural resource may exist as a separate entity such as fresh water, and air, as well as a living organism such as a fish, or it may exist in an alternate form which must be “processed” to obtain the resource such as metal ores, oil, and most forms of energy.

� “Processing” requires “Technology and Innovation”It is important to have both Resources and Technology

Page 16: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Principal Global Resources Equities themes 2014 to retain

Source: Statoil

Processing, Technology and Innovation in Global Res ources

Islamic Global Resources 16

Page 17: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Islamic Global Resources 17

1. Principal Global Equities Performances 2014

2. Global Equities – Where to invest now?

3. Global Resources Equities – Principal points to retain

4. Conclusion & Appendices

Page 18: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Conclusion

Islamic Global Resources 18

� A strong Investment Case both over Short and Long term

� Diversification and Liquidity offered by Shariah Compliant Equities

�With its flexibility to take advantage of the most exciting global resource investment themes, the objective of Islamic Global Resources is to capture value creation for its shareholders.

�Our conviction-based investment process is relying on a deep knowledge of companies, we maintain a balanced and flexible portfolio

�We work on a medium-term investment horizon for sustainable performance

Page 19: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Appendices – Team Biographies

Islamic Global Resources*Société Française des Analystes Financiers 19

� Henrietta LanceSenior Portfolio Manager, Global Agriculture, Islam ic Global Resources, Water

Henrietta Lance Joined Amundi in early 2007 and moved to Global Resources team in 2008. She was European Equity Specialist at Société Générale and Exane. Henrietta started her career at Prudential Bache in London. Henrietta is graduated from Edinburgh University. She holds the CIIA and she is a member of the French Society of Financial Analysts (SFAF*).

� Sudeshna AndréInvestment Specialist

Sudeshna joined Amundi in 1989 and is an Investment Specialist since 2004. Previously was an Equity Strategist. Sudeshna is graduated from the University of Cambridge.

Page 20: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

Disclaimer

Islamic Global Resources 20

This document is for your information only. It does not constitute an advertisement, offer, invitation, commitment, adviceor recommendation to make a purchase of securities or enter into any such transaction. It is personal and confidentialand may not be copied or distributed to anyone or in any jurisdiction that would make such distribution unlawful.

The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but has not beenindependently verified, although Amundi and its affiliated companies believe it to be fair and not misleading. Suchinformation is solely indicative and may be subject to modification from time to time and should be read in conjunctionwith the appropriate offering document. We do not accept any liability whatsoever whether direct or indirect that mayarise from the use of information contained in this document. Amundi, its associates, directors, connected partiesand/or employees may from time to time have interests and or underwriting commitments in the investments mentionedin this document.

Amundi does not guarantee that all risks associated to the transactions mentioned herein have been identified, nordoes it provide advice as to whether you should enter into any such transaction.

Amundi does not make any representation as to the merits, suitability, expected success, or profitability of any suchtransaction mentioned herein.

You must make your own assessment of any such transaction and the risks and benefits associated with it and of allthe matters referred to above. You should enter into transactions only after having considered, with the assistance ofexternal advisors, the specific risks of any such transaction.

Amundi Malaysia Sdn Bhd Level 29, Integra Tower, The Intermark348 Jalan Tun Razak50400 Kuala LumpurCompany Registration Number 816729-K

Page 21: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

For training purposes only. Not for circulation

Growing Your Investments In A Changing WorldNg Chze HowSenior Vice PresidentRetail & Retirement Funds

Page 22: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

For training purposes only. Not for circulation

22

MSCI World Index Rebounds

Performance Post Event

1 week 2 weeks 1 month 3 months 6 months

Sept, 111

11 September 2001-3.80% -5.64% 1.77% 4.62% 7.92%

SARS2

11 February 20032.36% -0.31% -4.36% 12.87% 19.32%

US-Iraq 3

20 March 2003-0.46% 0.25% 2.87% 16.98% 23.92%

Indonesia India Ocean Tsunami 4

26 December 2004-0.09% -1.55% -2.05% -0.91% 0.07%

Source: Bloomberg, extracted on 6 August 2014. Performance in USD. MSCI World Index refers to Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index.Past performance is not an indicative of future performanceBBC On This Day - 11 September 2001: US rocked by day of terrorBBC News, Timeline – 7 July 2004: Sars virusBBC On This Day – 20 March 2003: US launches missiles against SaddamBBC On This Day – 26 December 2004: Thousands die in Asian tsunami

Page 23: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

For training purposes only. Not for circulation

23

An Illustration To Generating Alpha

Source: Blackrock, January 2014.

Futureyielders

HiddenGems

SpecialSituations

ThematicInvesting

Page 24: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

For training purposes only. Not for circulation

24

Economic Clock

Source: The Australian, 15 October 2011; Smart Investor, 22 August 2012

Page 25: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

For training purposes only. Not for circulation

25

Disclaimer

This publication has been prepared for general information only and is not to be taken as containingany advice or recommendation. Wherever possible, care has been taken to ensure accuracy, and allfacts and figures are correct at the time of publication. AmInvestment Services Berhad shall not beheld liable, for any loss or damage of whatsoever nature and howsoever caused, directly or indirectly,for readers’ decisions made on their finances, investments or anything whatsoever. The informationcontained in this promotional material is general information only and does not take into account yourindividual objectives, financial situations or needs. You should seek your own financial advice from anappropriately licensed adviser before investing.

PRIVACY NOTICE: AmInvestment Services Berhad issued its Privacy Notice as required by PersonalData Protection Act 2010, which details the use and processing of your personal information byAmInvestment Services Berhad. The Privacy Notice can be accessed via www.aminvest.com andavailable at our head office. If you have any queries in relation to the Privacy Notice of AmInvestmentServices Berhad, please feel free to contact our Client Service Officers at Tel: +603 2032 2888 OR e-mail: [email protected].

Page 26: Geopolitics reinforces opportunities inmrem.bernama.com/pdf/22939.pdf · Geopolitics reinforces opportunities in Global Resources Equities – Press Conference Henrietta Lance ...

For training purposes only. Not for circulation