Geology, technology, economics, and politics - uis.no Økonomi/NHH 23 June... · Petroleum...

University of Stavanger Business Schoolhttp://www.uis.no/MohnTwitter: @Mohnitor

Four decades of developmentHistory, status and outlook for Norwegian oil and gasKlaus Mohn, Professor

1

Guest lecture at the Norwegian School of EconomicsBergen, 23 June 2015

An intriguing industry

2

Geology, technology, economics, and politics

Four decades of development

3

Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Norges Bank Investment Management, author’s calculations (GPF projections).

Substantial revenues for industry, households – and politicians

NCS oil and gas productionMMBoepd

Government Pension Fund - GlobalTotal capital (NOK trn; nominal)

0

1

2

3

4

5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20300

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Cumulated returnsCumulated transfers

???


4

Oil and gas in Norway: An industry that makes a difference Retrospect on trends and developments on the NCS*

Norway in the world of petroleum (benchmarking) Oil and gas in Norway: Industry, infrastructure, and resources Framework and organisation (legal, organisational, fiscal) Economics of exploration and production Oil and the economy (cyclical and structural impact) Corporate investment and capital market interaction

*) Norwegian Continental Shelf.

Session outline

Oil and gas in Norway

5

Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Two key references


6


New app available

An industry that makes a difference

7

Source: Ministry of Finance, Statistics Norway, Oslo 2022.

A significant role in the Norwegian economy

Macroeconomic key figures 2012Oil and gas share in…

Seven winter olympic games…… every year

GDP23 per cent

Total export52 per cent

Government revenue30 per cent

Total fixed capex29 per cent

An industry that makes a difference

8


Large offshore industry


9




Oil exploration – where it all starts

10

A classical board-game reference

Unit cost of reserve additionStylised illustrationC

t

C(r)

Exploring the unknown: Geology

11


Wildcat drilling and the oil price

Exploring the unknown: Technology

12

Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Statoil.

From concrete offshore to subsea & onshore

Retrospect: NCS expenditures

Total NCS expenditures by typeNOK bn (@2013 prices)

NCS investments…… by field startup decade (@2013 prices)

The peak is here


Retrospect: NCS production

Oil Natural gas


Retrospect: NCS players

NCS development operatorships… by type of company (per cent)

Increasing diversity

NCS production operatorshipsby type of company (#)



16




Session outline

Norway in the world of petroleum

17


Oil and gas exports compared

Oil exports by countryMmboepd (2013)

Gas exports by countryBillion SM3

Global benchmarking: Oil and gas reserves

18

Source: Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy.

Total oil and gas reserves (bn tonnes o.e.; 2013)

Global benchmarking: OilNorway in the world of oil

Oil productionmillion tonnes

Oil consumptionmillion tonnes

Source: Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (Facts 2014).

Global benchmarking: GasNorway in the world of oil

Gas productionmillion tonnes o.e.

Gas consumptionmillion tonnes o.e.

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013.


21




Session outline


22


Not only the North Sea

2 039 951 square kilometers Three time mainland Norway

Three ocean areas North Sea (142’ sqkm; 60 fields) Norwegian Sea (287’ sqkm; 16

fields) Barents Sea (772’ sqkm; 1 field)

Developments started in the North Sea

Gradual northward movement Barents Sea is the new frontier

Gas transportation

23


2013 total: 107 bcm

Norwegian gas exportsBy delivery point (per cent)

Classification of oil and gas resourcesThe system of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate


Classification of oil and gas resourcesThe system of the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Undiscovered Discovered Produced

Maturing resources

Undiscoveredresources

Contingent resources Reserves

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Undiscovered Discovered Produced

Maturing resources

Undiscoveredresources

Contingent resources Reserves

Petroleum resources on the NCS

26


Volume estimates by category (2013)

Petroleum resources on the NCS

27


Volume estimates and uncertainty intervals


28




Session outline

Framework and organisation

29

Industrial policies marked by vision and ambition

Source: Norwegian Ministry of Finance.


30

Source: Norwegian Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

1. National supervision and control must be ensured for all operations on the NCS2. Petroleum discoveries must be exploited in a way which makes Norway as independent as

possible of others for its supplies of crude oil3. New industry will be developed on the basis of petroleum4. The development of an oil industry must take necessary account of existing industrial activities

and the protection of nature and the environment5. Flaring of exploitable gas on the NCS must not be accepted except during brief periods of

testing6. Petroleum from the NCS must as a general rule be landed in Norway, except in those cases

where socio-political considerations dictate a different solution7. The state must become involved at all appropriate levels and contribute to a coordination of

Norwegian interests in Norway’s petroleum industry as well as the creation of an integrated oil community which sets its sights both nationally and internationally

8. A state oil company will be established which can look after the government’s commercial interests and pursue appropriate collaboration with domestic and foreign oil interests

9. A pattern of activities must be selected north of the 62nd parallel which reflects the special socio-political conditions prevailing in that part of the country

10. Large Norwegian petroleum discoveries could present new tasks for Norway’s foreign policy

Transparency and predictability


31

Legal framework

The Petroleum Act (1996) Legal basis of licensing system Disposal and de-commisioning Liability for pollution damage Safety aspects

NCS petroleum: state property All activities require approval A license grants the (time-

constrained) right to explore, develop, and produce

EIAs required for area openings and field development (PDO)



32

State organisation of petroleum activities


Framework and organisations

33

Triad of fiscal instruments and institutions

Government Pension Fund - Global

Petroleum taxation

The State’s Direct Financial Interest

Source: Norwegian Ministry of Finance, Petoro AS, Norges Bank.


34

State revenues from petroleum activities

Calculation of petroleum tax Government net cash-flow……from petroleum activities (NOK bn)



35




Session outline

Hubbert’s peak

36

Source: Hubbert (1962), Mohn (2008): ”Elastic oil: A primer on the economics of exploration and production”.

The geophysical approach to oil exploration and production

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 20150

50

100

150

200

250

300

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Cumulated oil discoveriesStylised example

Oil productionStylised example

Economists know better

37

Modifying factors for the geophysical approach

E&P activity governed by profit-maximising companies Technology and unit cost Market developments Policy constraints

Hubbert approach augmented with economic models and variables

Integrated models provide better explanations

Sources: “Mainstream view”: International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2012. “Scarcity”: Aleklett, Kjell et al. 2010. The Peak of the oil age. Energy Policy 38 (3), 1398-1414. “Abundance”: Maugeri, Leonardo. 2012. Oil: The Next Revolution. Discussion Paper 2012-10. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Harvard Kennedy School.

50

75

100

125

2000 2005 2011 2015 2020

"Mainstream" (IEA WEO 2012)"Scarcity" (Aleklett et al. 2010)"Abundance" (Maugeri 2012)

World oil supplyAlternative views (MMBoepd)

Hubbert’s peak

38

Source: Hubbert (1962), Mohn (2008): ”Elastic oil: A primer on the economics of exploration and production”.

The geophysical approach to oil exploration and production

Cumulated oil discoveriesStylised example

Oil productionStylised example

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 20150

50

100

150

200

250

300

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2015

Example: The exploration process

39

Drilling activity on the NCS

Exploration indicatorsDrilling effort – and success

Resources in discoveriesDrill-out by discovery size


Cumulative growth in discovered resources

40

A “Creaming curve” for the NCS


Annual resource additions – and production

41

The time-derivative of the “Creaming curve”


Efforts and efficiency in oil exploration

42

Source: Source: Mohn, K. 2008. Efforts and Efficiency in Oil Exploration: A Vector Error-Correction Approach. The Energy Journal 30 (4), 53-78.

A vector error-correction approach

Exploration output:

Three channels of impact:

Simultaneous econometric approach

),(),(),(),( XPMXPSXPDXPR

.mp

sp

dp

rp

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5 Average discovery sizeDrilling successDrilling efforts

Geology(Depletion; Ht)

Technology(Seismic surveys: Zt)

Economics(Oil price: Pt)

Policy(Acreage: Et)

Estimated long-term elasticities

The oil price matters…

43

Source: Reuters EcoWin.

… for demand, supply, and future price dynamics

Oil price reviewBrent blend, USD/bbl (@2012 prices)

4-fold increase since 2000 Impact on demand

Income effect Substitution effect Policy response

Impact on supply Conventionals Unconventionals

New technologies0

30

60

90

120

150

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010


44

Source: Reuters EcoWin, Rystad Energy.

… for demand, supply, and future price dynamics

Oil price reviewBrent blend, USD/bbl (@2012 prices)

0

100

200

300

400

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

RussiaEuropeNorth AmericaSouth AmericaAfricaMiddle EastAsiaAustralia

Offshore supply servicesby global region, USD bn (nominal)

0

30

60

90

120

150

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010


45

… for activity, production, and recoverable reserves

Oil price and reserve potentialRevenues, cost, and field-life

Oil price and IOR activitiesRevenues, cost, and field-life

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

P0

P1

Opex

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Opex

IOR project

Base profile


46

Source: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Reuters EcoWin.

… for NCS activity, production, revenues – and costs

NCS oil and gas investments……and the oil price (NOK bn; USD/bbl)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Pipeline transportOnshore processingProducing fieldsField developmentExplorationOil price (USD/bbl)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

1

2

3

4

5

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

NCS oil and gas production…… and the oil price (mmboe/day; USD/bbl)


47

… for NPD expectations

Outlook for NCS oil and gas productionNPD forecast by year of release (MMBoepd)

NCS oil and gas production…… and the oil price (mmboe/day; USD/bbl)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

200120032005200720092011Actual

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

2020 production (mmboepd)Average annual growth (%)



48




Session outline

Oil and the economy

49

Petroleum and the Norwegian business cycle

Global economic effects Oil and the macro economy Importers vs exporters

Domestic demand effects Resource movement Public (and private) spending

Mixed results for GDP impact in Norway

Oil and the economy

50

Longer-term issues: The Dutch disease

Resource revenues appreciates the real exchange rate Crowd-out of manufacturing Erosion of competitiveness

Aggravates the cost of (structural) re-adjustment

Two channels of transmission Spending effect Resource movement effect

Stemming the spending effects

51

Source: Norwegian Ministry of Finance, Statistics Norway.

The background

0

1

2

3

4

5

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017

Oil and gas productionNorwegian continental shelf (mmboepd)

0

100

200

300

400

500

1972 1982 1992 2002 2012

Government net cash-flow…… from petroleum (NOK bn)


52

Fund mechanism and fiscal policy rule

GovernmentPension Fund

Global

GovernmentPension Fund

Global

Governmentbudget

GovernmentbudgetTransfer to finance

non-oil budget deficit

Investment returnsInvestment returns

Net cash flowNet cash flow

Fiscal policy rule(Expenditure in line with expected real

returns, i.e. 4% per year)



53


Budget deficit, policy rule, and investment returns

Budget deficit and fiscal policy ruleNOK bn (@2013 prices)

Oil revenues and investment returnsRatios to GDP (%)

0

50

100

150

200

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Non-oil budget deficit 4 % returns(3% returns)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1979 1988 1997 2006 2015 2024 2033 2042 2051 2060

Non-oil budgetdeficitGovernmentnet cash-flowInvestmentreturns

Less attention on resource movement

54

Significant macro impulse from oil-related activity

80

90

100

110

120

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ship-building and mechanical industryOther export-oriented industries

Value-added in manufacturingvolume index (2008=100)

NCS oil and gas investments……and the oil price (NOK bn; USD/bbl)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Pipeline transportOnshore processingProducing fieldsField developmentExplorationOil price (USD/bbl)


Less focus on resource movement effects

55

From re-positioning to real appreciation

Demand from the petroleum sectorRatio to mainland GDP (%)

Competitive position under pressureWages per hour, manufacturing industries

0

5

10

15

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Goods inputInvestmentLabour cost

0

50

100

150

200

Nor

way

Bel

gium

Sw

eden

Den

mar

kFr

ance

Ger

man

yFi

nlan

dN

ethe

rland

Aust

riaIre

land

Italy

Spa

in UK

Cze

ch R

Pola

nd


Vulnerabilities vary across regions

56

Source: Statistics Norway, Konkraft-rapport nr. 7 (http://www.konkraft.no), Rystad Energy (2013).

Petroleum exposure is not uniformly distributed

Petroleum-related employment 2012Total: ~220,000 persons

0

50

100

150

200

250Sub-suppliersSuppliersProcessingOil companies

What about wealth effects?

57

Indicators of Government and private sector wealth

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Returns

Transfers

Government Pension Fund – GlobalCumulated capital (NOK bn)

0

200

400

600

800

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

Share prices and housing pricesIndices (1995 = 100)



58

Is government saving offset by the private sector?

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980 1990 2000 2010

GovernmentHouseholds

Saving ratesRatios to GDP (per cent)

Saving ratesAnnual change (percentage points)

-10

-5

0

5

10

1980 1990 2000 2010

GovernmentHouseholds



59

Source: Statistics Norway (National accounts)

Ricardian equivalence revisited

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 2007 2010 2012

GovernmentHouseholds (rhs)

Government vs householdsNet financial wealth, NOK bn

Government vs private sectorNet financial wealth, NOK bn

-2000

-1600

-1200

-800

-400

0

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 2007 2010 2012

GovernmentPrivate sector (rhs)


60




Session outline

IOC returns fall short of expectations

61

Source: http://www.statoil.com/IR.

Unimpressive share price developments

The NCS cost challengeSelected sample field example

Operating cost and productionNOK bn (@2013 prices)

Unit production costNOK/SM3 oe (@2013 prices)


The NCS cost challengeCost indicators

Well cost and rig ratesNOK bn (@2013 prices); USD per day

Petroleum project cost indices2000 = 100 (global indices)


IOC revenues fall short of expenditures

64

Source: Wall Street Journal.

More capital is required for each barrel of production capacity

IOC production falls short of promises

65

Production growth versus targeted growth last four years

Source: Enskilda Securities (Oil companies’ E&P budgets, 20 August 2013).

IOC cash-flows fall short of investments

66

Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research.

Only BP funded its capex with cash-flow in 2013

Planning prices are up, but so are costs

67

Planning and budgeting price for oil (Brent blend, USD/bbl)


The comfort zone is narrowing

68

Difference between current price and planning price (USD/bbl)


Investment choked by financial markets

69

Source: Citibank (chart).

Increasing focus on cash-flow management and capital discipline

“Leaking profits”Return on capital employed for major oil companies

Shareholder skepticism Production short of targets Sky-rocketing costs Erosion of returns

Worries over oil price outlook Weak economic growth New floods of supplies Policy uncertainty looms

Business model under pressure Scarcity and access dilemmas «Carbon bubble» challenge

“Cash is King!”

The Statoil example

70

Source: http://www.statoil.com/IR.

Cash-flow 2013

Statoil’s revised capex plans

71

Source: http://www.statoil.com/IR, author’s calculations.

Tracing the NCS activity impact: A thought experiment

Capital expendituresNOK bn

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2007 2010 2013 2016

Capex20132014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Capex Divest INT NCS

Statoil share

Capex cut dilution…NOK bn

…and NCS re-leverage


72




Session outline

Longer-term oil industry challenges

73

Source: Mitchell, John, Marcel, Valerie and Beth Mitchell. 2012. «What next for the oil and gas industry?». Chatham House. October 2012.

Will the world turn its back on fossil fuels?

Energy and climate policies Role of oil in transport Eastward bound energy Shale gale globalisation Emerging technologies Access, returns, and risk Changes in OPEC behaviour

Concluding remarks

74

Build resilience, prepare for change

Energy is getting more expensive Oil price outlook is very uncertain The oil price matters for activity

Boom arrested by market concerns New shocks and cycles in the cards IOC business model under pressure

Uncertain outlookBrent blend, USD/bbl (@2012 prices)

Source: US Energy Information Administration.

University of Stavanger Business Schoolhttp://www.uis.no/MohnTwitter: @Mohnitor

Thank you for your attention!Klaus MohnProfessor

75

References I

76

• Aleklett, Kjell et al. 2010. The Peak of the oil age. Energy Policy 38 (3), 1398‐1414.• Berk, Istemi og Hakan Yetkiner. 2013. Energy prices and economic growth: Theory and evidence in the long run. Renewable and Sustainable

Energy Reviews 36, 228‐235.• Bernstein, Shai, Lerner, Josh, and Antoinette Schoar. 2013. The investment strategies of sovereign wealth funds. Journal of Economic

Perspectives 27 (2), 219‐239.• Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. (2011). Energy Economics. Springer.• Bjørnland, H. og L. A. Thorsrud. Boom or gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in a two‐speed economy. Working Paper. Norwegian School of

Management. Oslo.• Boston Consulting Group. 2012. Kapasitet i den norskbaserte petroleumsrettede leverandørindustrien. Rapport til Olje‐ og

energidepartementet. November 2012.• Cappelen, Å., Eika, T. og J. Prestmo (2010). Nedbyggingen av petroleumsvirksomheten. Hvor store blir utfordringene for norsk økonomi?

Rapporter 2010/46. Statistisk sentralbyrå.• Cappelen, Ådne, Eika, Torbjørn og Joakim Blix Prestmo (2013). Petroleumsvirksomhetens virkning på norsk økonomi og lønnsdannelse.

Rapporter 59/2013. Statistisk sentralbyrå.• Cappelen, Ådne, Eika, Torbjørn og Joakim Blix Prestmo (2014). Virkninger på norsk økonomi av et kraftig fall i oljeprisen. Økonomiske

analyser 3/2014, 31‐42. Statistisk sentralbyrå.• Corden, W. M. 1984. Booming sector and Dutch disease economics: Survey and consolidation. Oxford Economic Papers 36 (3), 359‐380.• Døskeland, Trond M. 2007. Strategic asset allocation for a country: the Norwegian case. Financial markets and portfolio management 21,

167‐201.• ECON (2010). Næringsmessige konsekvenser av redusert petroleumsaktivitet. Rapport 2010‐29. EconPöyry. • Eika, T., Prestmo, J. og E. Tveter. 2010. Etterspørselen fra petroleumsvirksomheten. Betydningen for produksjon og sysselsetting i Norge.

Økonomiske Analyser, 3/2010, 30‐39. Statistisk sentralbyrå.• Eika, T., Prestmo, J. og E. Tveter 2010. Ringvirkninger av petroleumsvirksomheten – Hvilke næringer leverer? Rapporter 2010/08. Statistisk

sentralbyrå.

References II

77

• Evans, Joanne og Lester C. Hunt (red) International Handbook on the Economics of Energy. Edward Elgar Publishing, Massachusetts. USA.• Finansdepartementet. 1975. Petroleumsvirksomhetens plass i det norske samfunn. St. meld. nr. 25.• Finansdepartementet. 2014. Forvaltning av Statens pensjonsfond. Stortingsmelding 19 (2013‐2014).• Fjose, S., Grünfeld, L. og A. Blomgren (2012). Totale sysselsettings‐ og skatteeffekter av petroleumsvirksomhet i Norge – utsikter til fremtidig

vekst. Menon‐rapport 3/2012.• Frankel, Jeffrey A. 2010. The natural resource curse: A survey. NBER Working Paper 15836. National Bureau of Economic Research. March

2010.• Hamilton, James D. (2008). Oil and the macroeconomy. New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics. Palgrave. London.• Hubbert, M. King. 1962. Energy Resources. National Academy of Sciences, Publication 1000‐D, p.60.• International Energy Agency. 2013. Medium‐term oil market report. May 2013.• International Energy Agency. 2013. World Energy Outlook. November 2013.• Killian, Lutz (2008). The economic effects of energy price shocks. Journal of Economic Literature 46 (4), 871‐909.• Killian, Lutz (2009). Not all oil price shocks are alike: Disentangling demand and supply shocks in the crude oil market. American Economic

Review 99 (3), 1053‐1069.• Konkraft. 2009. Ringvirkninger av petroleumsvirksomheten. KonKraft‐rapport 7 (bakgrunnsutredning for siste Oljemelding).• Maugeri, Leonardo. 2012. Oil: The Next Revolution. Discussion Paper 2012‐10. Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Harvard

Kennedy School.• Mitchell, John, Marcel, Valerie, and Beth Mitchell. 2012. What next for the oil and gas industry? Royal Institute of International Affairs

(Chatham House). October 2012.

References III

78

• Mohn, K. 2008a. Oljepris, petroleumsvirksomhet og norsk økonomi. Samfunnsøkonomen 1/2008.• Mohn, K. 2008b. Efforts and Efficiency in Oil Exploration: A Vector Error‐Correction Approach. The Energy Journal 30 (4), 53‐78.• Mohn, K. 2008c. Investment behaviour in the international oil and gas industry: Essays in empirical petroleum economics. PhD Thesis 51.

Faculty of science and engineering. University of Stavanger. • Mohn, K. 2009. Elastic Oil: A primer on the economics of exploration and production. In Bjørndal E. and Bjørndal, M. (eds) Energy, Natural

Resource and Environmental Economics. London: Springer.• Mohn, K. 2014. Kva skjer med oljeinvesteringane? Samfunnsøkonomen 2/2014, 10‐14.• Mohn, K. og E. Wærness. 2011. Oljen i økonomien. Norsk oljemuseums årbok 2010, 13‐36.• Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (2014a). Facts 2014: The Norwegian Petroleum Sector.• Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (2014b). Petroleum resources on the NCS 2014 – Fields and discoveries.• Rystad Energy. 2012. Internasjonal omsetning fra norske oljeservice‐selskaper. Rapport til Olje‐ og energidepartementet, August 2012.• Rystad Energy. 2013a. Internasjonal omsetning fra norske oljeservice‐selskaper. Rapport til Olje‐ og energidepartementet. Oktober 2013.• Rystad Energy. 2013b. Aktiviteten i den petroleumsrettede leverandørindustrien i landets ulike regioner. Rapport til Olje‐ og

energidepartementet. Oktober 2013.• Smith, James L. (2009). World Oil: Market or Mayhem? Journal of Economic Perspectives 23 (3), 145‐164.• Solheim, H. 2008. Virkninger av økt oljepris på norsk økonomi. Aktuell kommentar nr. 2. Norges Bank. Juni 2008.• Statoil. 2013. Energy Perspectives. Rapport.• van den Bremer, Ton and Frederick van der Ploeg. 2013. The elephant in the ground: Managing oil and sovereign wealth. Working Paper 129.

Oxford Centre for the analysis of resource‐rich countries (OXCARRE). Oxford.• van der Ploeg, Frederick. 2011. Natural resources: Curse or blessing? Journal of Economic Literature 49 (2), 366‐420. • van der Ploeg, Frederick and Anthony J. Venables. 2011. Harnessing windfall reveneues: Optimal policies for resource‐rich countries. The

Economic Journal 121, 1‐30.• van der Ploeg, Frederick. 2013. Guidelines for exploiting natural resource wealth. Working Paper 128. Oxford Centre for the analysis of

resource‐rich countries (OXCARRE). Oxford.• Vatne, E. 2007. Regional fordeling av sysselsetting i norsk petroleumsrelatert leverandørindustri, Arbeidsnotat 22/07, SNF.

Geology, technology, economics, and politics - uis.no Økonomi/NHH 23 June... · Petroleum...

Documents

Transcript of Geology, technology, economics, and politics - uis.no Økonomi/NHH 23 June... · Petroleum...