Geog 1900: ExtremeWeather and Climate. Review of last lecture The modern climatology (meteorology)...
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Transcript of Geog 1900: ExtremeWeather and Climate. Review of last lecture The modern climatology (meteorology)...
![Page 1: Geog 1900: ExtremeWeather and Climate. Review of last lecture The modern climatology (meteorology) was born in the 1940s (a very young science!), but.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081519/56649e595503460f94b533e1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Geog 1900: ExtremeWeather and Climate
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Review of last lecture
• The modern climatology (meteorology) was born in the 1940s (a very young science!), but has been growing very fast! Now we have a global observational network with many satellites, ships, radars and surface stations, as well as very comprehensive prediction models running on the world’s fastest supercomputers.
• The current status of weather and climate predictions: (1) weather prediction good to 10 days, (2) tropical cyclone prediction good in track but not in intensity, (3) climate prediction good to two seasons, (4) climate change projections have a 3-fold difference in magnitude.
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Overview III: Why is it so difficult to predict weather and
climate?
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Problem I: Different parts of the world are strongly connected to each other (The “Teleconnection Problem”)
Global atmospheric flow
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Satellite image: Flow of water vapor in the atmosphere
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Example 1: Global impacts of El Nino
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The “Pineapple Express” connecting Hawaii and California
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Example 2: Global impacts of the mini El Nino (Madden-Julian
Oscillation)
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Factors affecting US weather and climate
El NinoMadden-Julian Oscillation
Amazon
ArcticN. Atlantic
Atlantic/ Sahel
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Any location is affected by all the other locations, and in turn is
affecting all the other locations
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Problem II: Different components of the earth system (atmosphere, land, ocean, ice,
clouds, etc) are strongly interacting with each other
(The “Feedback Problem”)
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Example: Melting of Arctic sea ice
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Video: Ice Albedo feedback
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rqREjFaRho
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Problem III: The global climate models divide the earth into many small pixels (called grids), but the earth
system composes of both very big objects (such as the whole Pacific Ocean) and very small objects (such as the cloud droplets), making it very difficult to draw
them on the same page (The “Subgrid-Scale Problem”)
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The limitation of concept/theory/model: Only approximation of real world
Concepts cut reality into smaller pieces
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Some Great Weather/Climate
Scientists
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Prof. Lonnie Thompson – OSU
• Father of Tropical Glaciology
• Spent an enormous amount of time above 5500 m
• Discovered solid record for Earth’s climate history
• Grown up in West Virginia
• Did three part-time jobs in high school to make a living
• Worked for many years with low salary
• Went back to the Himalayas after heart transplant
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Prof. Robert Cess SUNY at Stony Brook
• World’s leading expert on climate change and Earth’s energy budget
• Organized the first international team for supercomputer prediction of global climate change, and many NASA and DOE projects
• Was not even an AMS Fellow when received the Charney Award
• Finished his Ph.D. in 3 years while doing a full-time job and taking care of his first child
• Hobby: Collectible cars
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The young generation
Video: Prof Dargan Frierson and Elizabeth Maroon sing The World of Daisies (lyrics by Prof Mike Wallace) in ATM S 111: Global Warming•https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYySTtFcQlU
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Summary
• The main reasons of the difficulties in weather and climate predictions: (1) Teleconnection problem, (2) Feedback problem, and (3) Subgrid-scale problem
• Some great weather/climate scientists