Geog 102 case study 3

GEOG 102 – Population, Resources, and the Environment

Professor: Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue

Case Study 3 – China’s One Child Policy

1 – Chinese Demographics2 – Population Planning in China

11 Chinese Demographics

■ Demographics...• More people than the combined population of Europe, the

Americas and Japan.• Any change has global ramifications.• The demography of China is a powerful trend (1.29 billion).

• About 14-17 million people are added each year in 1980s.• Average of 13 million people per year in the 1990s.• 10 million people per year in the 2000s.

• 400 million Chinese live in towns and cities (30-35%).• 64% of the population lives in rural areas (950 millions).• 343 million females are in their reproductive age.

The Population of China, 0-2050

105 755 10831210

1381 15621650 1753

18121851

18871911

19491953

1970

1981

19952000

2050

2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 500 1000 1500 2000

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Chinese Population, 1949-2000 (in millions) (projections to 2050)

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

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Population of Selected Chinese Provinces, 1998

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Sichuan

Nigeria

Mexico

Henan

Shandong

Germany

Jiangsu

Philippines

Iran

Hebei

Hunan

Egypt

Italy

United Kingdom

France

.

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Chinese Demographics

■ The problems of controlling it...• The population exploded after 1949.• Population control was secondary.• Mao Zedong saw numbers as a workforce and a way to fight the

Soviet Union and the United States.• Calls for women to “breed for the motherland”.

■ Population distribution• Excessive concentration.

• 50% of the population lives on 8.2% of the land.• Bulk of the population along the coast.• East China accounts for 90% of the population.• 56%, about 728 million, are living in mountainous areas.• High density rural areas.

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Street Scene, Shanghai11


■ The 1990 Census• Counted 1.134 billion Chinese in the PRC.• Believed to be the most accurate ever taken in China.• A greater than anticipated increase in population due in large

part to the undercounts of earlier censuses.• Population was urbanizing.

• The percentage of urban population had increased from 20.6% in 1982 to 26.2% by 1990.

• An increase of 5.6% in just eight years.• Reflected job growth in the cities• Development of the private sector.• Government’s departure from socialist methods of production in the

secondary sector.

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• Increasing ethnic diversity.• The government had not enforced the One Child Policy among the

country’s 55 recognized minority groups.• They had increased their share of still predominantly Han population to

8% from 6.7% in 1982.• Distribution remained heavily concentrated in the eastern

regions.■ Current issues• Population growth undermines Chinese development (education,

health, transportation).• Acceleration of urbanization at the expense of arable land (loss

of 10% since 1978).• About 10 million persons reach the employment market each

year.

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■ Urbanization concern• Occurred at the expense of highly productive agricultural areas.• During the 1990s, China lost 1% of its farm land due to

urbanization and industrial development.• Only about 10% of the Chinese territory can be used for

agricultural purposes.• The area used for grain production has declined from 120 million

hectares in 1978 to 110 million hectares in 1995.

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Acres of Arable Land per Person

0.25

0.79

0.37

0.42

0.3

0.96

2.05

0.2

0.82

0.35

0.59

0.22

0.67

1.66

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

China

Brazil

Germany

India

Indonesia

Nigeria

US

1994-19961979-1981

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■ Agricultural problems• Traditional land structures have reach optimal capacity.• Output cannot be increased without the usage of modern techniques such as

machinery and fertilizers.• Modern techniques are not available.

• The size of exploitations is too small:• Less than 1 hectare per household in coastal areas.

• Urbanization, industrialization and transport have decreased agricultural land in the most productive areas.

• Speculation around cities towards golf courses and leisure centers at the expanse of agriculture.

• About 13-15 million new mouths to feed each year with declining agricultural surfaces.

• Production of grain is diverted to livestock (meat) and other production (e.g. beer).

• Limited investments in agriculture by the peasant.

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■ Improving Chinese agriculture• Considerable room for improvement for the Chinese agricultural

productivity.• China has not much applied techniques learned during the

“green revolution”.• Consolidation of agricultural plots could increase economies of

scale.• Irrigation:

• 65% of all the water used for irrigation is lost.• Putting this ratio only to 50% could increase water resources by 40%

without taping on new sources.• Approximately 25% of the grain is lost due to improper

warehousing and transport infrastructure.

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■ Increased agricultural output• Regrouping small exploitations to reach economies of scale.• Investments in irrigation.• Reduction of agricultural labor between 100 to 120 millions.• Rural enterprises to absorb “in situ” the excess labor.• Moving from a labor to a capital intensive agriculture.

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Family Planning

■ Early 1970s• Known as the “later-longer-fewer program”.• Authorized age of marriage 25 for men and 23 for women.• Wait later to begin their families, allow for longer spacing in

between children, and have fewer children overall. • Began to reduce fertility levels.• Not fast enough to really slow down population growth due to the

demographic momentum that had already developed.■ End of 1970s• Government began to promote the two-child family throughout

the country.• Slogan “One is best, at most two, never a third”.• Contributed to fertility decline but, again, not rapidly enough.

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Family Planning

■ One Child Policy• Launched in 1981 when the population reached 1 billion.

• Initial goal: Stabilize China’s population at 1.2 billion.• Revised goal: Keep China’s population under 1.4 billion until 2010.• Population expected to stabilize around 1.6 billion by 2050.

• Under the responsibility of the State Family Planning Commission (SFPC).

• Population control perceived from a strategic point of view.• Great variations in performance between the country’s urban and

rural areas.• Possible to enforce in China (totalitarian).• Would have been impossible in most other places.

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Family Planning

■ Regulations of the policy• Employers and neighborhood committees had to enforce

guidelines.• 1) Authorization for marriage:

• 25 years for male and 23 years for female.• Students and apprentices not allowed to marry.

• 2) Monitoring menstrual cycles.• 3) Contraceptive use mandatory:

• UID used for women with already one child.• Incentives for sterilization after the birth of the first child.• Couples with two or more children had to have one partner sterilized

(women 80% of the time).• 4) All pregnancies must be authorized:

• Authorized pregnancies had to be aborted.• 7th, 8th or 9th month abortions are legal.

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Family Planning

• Incentives offered to couples with only one child:• Monthly allowances paid to couples with only one child.• Child entitled to free educational and medical services.

• Disincentives used to discourage larger families:• Fine up to 15% of annual income.• Couples forced to give up all privileges if a second child was born and had

to repay any cash awards it had received.• A third child denied free education, subsidized food, and housing

privileges.• A third child’s parents would be penalized with a 10% reduction in wages.

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Family Planning

■ Urban areas• Small sized apartments.• Improving one’s status and level of consumption.• Easier control from the government.

■ Rural areas• Families want more children to work the family plots and sustain

parents when they get old.• Want sons who will continue the family line and provide ritual

sacrifices to their ancestors after they die. • Daughters are leaving their family once they marry.• Girls are accounting for only 20 to 30% of a new demographic

class in some areas.

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Percentage of Women Having More Than One Child, 1998

5.1

0.19

0

2.16

3.68

12.32

4.19

26.58

21.55

0 10 20 30

National

Beijing

Shanghai

Jiangsu

Fujian

Guangdong

Sichuan

Tibet

Xinjiang■ Fertility reduction

• Prevented about 300 million births since 1980.

• When the program began (1970), Crude Birth Rate was 34 and TFR was around 6.

• Been brought down to 10 (CBR) and 1.7 (TFR).

• About 40% of Chinese women have been sterilized.

• About 5% of women have more than one child.

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Family Planning

■ Fluctuations of fertility• Fertility has declined substantially before the OCP.• Reached a low in 1984.• Increased from the mid 1980s to the early 1990s.• Relaxation in enforcement in rural areas.

• In 1986, 2 children per couple were allowed in rural areas.• In 1995, the restriction was lifted for urban areas.

• Reductions in the authority of local officials responsible for implementing the program.

• Sizeable age cohort entering their reproductive years.• Baby boom of the early 1960s (about 40% of the increase was due to

this).• A decline in the age of marriage explained the other 60%.• Nearly 75% of this increase was offset by declines in the age-specific

fertility rates.

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Chinese Fertility Rate, 1949-1998

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1949

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

TFR

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Natu

ral I

ncre

ase

TFRNatural Increase

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Family Planning

■ Imbalanced sex ratio• Male children are more valued.• 120 boys for 100 girls (national average).• Abandon or abortion of females.• “Missing female population” as girls are not declared.• 2000: About 900,000 girls were missing (0 to 4 years group).• Only 1% of females are unmarried by the age of 30.

■ Psychological consequences:• Currently around 70 million single child.• 4-2-1 syndrome (4 grand parents – 2 parents – 1 child):

• “Little emperors” or “little empresses”.• Self-centrism.• Pressure to succeed.

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Males minus Females, China, 2000

-3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80+

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Family Planning

■ The Population and Family Planning Law• One-child policy was “a policy for one generation”. • Relaxed in the mid 1980s:

• 2 children permitted in rural areas.• A new family planning law started in 2002.• Same goal than the One-child policy, but offer more flexibility:

• One child, but permission may be granted for a second under specific circumstances.

• Late marriage and childbearing. • More flexibility for provinces, autonomous regions and minorities.• People in reproductive age have to use contraception.• Provisions for sex-determination and sex-specific abortions.

• Government keeping a close eye on demographics to see if population control required.

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Population Pyramid of China, 2000

5155

6351

4860

6452

4242

3124

2118

127

31

4348

5843

4258

6150

4041

2922

2018

138

52

-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Millions

FemaleMale

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Population Pyramid of China, 2050

3133

363534

3640

444241

4548

5340

3230

2112

2932

3434

3335

3942

3938

4144

5242

3840

3225

-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Millions

Female

Male

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Population Planning in China

■ What would have happened if it was not applied?• Population by 2000 would have reached 1.6 billion (instead of

1.3).• Annual increase would be 40 million (instead of 17-19).• Require much higher level of economic development.

■ The total population will continue to increase• Even if the natural growth rate can be lowered to 1% by 2005.• Annual net increase of population will still be more than 10

million.• Will continue to increase in the next 50 years.• Even with effective family planning, China’s population will not

stabilize until it reaches 1.5-1.6 billion by 2050.

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■ Improve the quality of the population• Education and health.

• 2.5 million students entered Universities in 2001.• Tremendous incurred costs.

■ Potential surplus labor in rural areas• A result of the development of the rural economy and the higher

rate of birth.• Large numbers of surplus rural labor who will need to transfer

from the agricultural to a non-agricultural field.• Speed urbanization of the population and create bigger pressure

on cities and towns.

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■ Aging of the population• Persons 65 years and older represent about 7 percent of the

population.• In the 21st century, China’s population will continue this aging

trend.• 65 years old or older numbering 250 million by the year 2040.• Providing social security and services to a huge elderly

population.

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Geog 102 case study 3

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