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Geoengineering and its Implications Dave Webb The Praxis Centre Leeds Metropolitan University Crisis Forum: Climate Change and Violence workshop series Workshop 1: Climate Catastrophe, Where are we heading? 14 November 2008 University of Southampton Slide 2 Content IntroductionIntroduction Geoengineering proposalsGeoengineering proposals International Law Geoengineering questionsInternational Law Geoengineering questions Slide 3 Introduction Focus of policymakers has been on various forms of preventive regulationFocus of policymakers has been on various forms of preventive regulation Climate change regulation requires huge amounts of will and coordinationClimate change regulation requires huge amounts of will and coordination Kyoto-style programs are threatened by uncertainty, cost, equity, etc.Kyoto-style programs are threatened by uncertainty, cost, equity, etc. Even the most austere post-Kyoto regulatory regime cannot now prevent global temperature riseEven the most austere post-Kyoto regulatory regime cannot now prevent global temperature rise Do we then adapt to climate change or look for alternatives?Do we then adapt to climate change or look for alternatives? Slide 4 Preventing Climate Change through Regulation A Tragedy of the CommonsA Tragedy of the Commons Effective Climate Change RegulationEffective Climate Change Regulation Difficult to agree Difficult to monitor & enforce Requires more will than we currently appear to have Changing imbedded structures is very difficult Adapting to climate change risky and avoiding the real problems Adapting to climate change risky and avoiding the real problems Slide 5 Alleviating Climate Change through Geoengineering Remedial SolutionRemedial Solution Maybe easier to implement than Regulation?Maybe easier to implement than Regulation? Fairer? Administratively Simpler Less Contentious? Minimizes Institutional Role Avoids the Tragedy of the CommonsAvoids the Tragedy of the Commons Climate Change Manhattan Project(s)Climate Change Manhattan Project(s) If successful may accelerate energy use & productionIf successful may accelerate energy use & production Slide 6 Geoengineering Proposals Iron FertilisationIron Fertilisation Sunscreen ProposalSunscreen Proposal Reflecting SunlightReflecting Sunlight Doing it with mirrorsDoing it with mirrors Filtering CO 2Filtering CO 2 Storing CO 2Storing CO 2 Turning CO 2 to stoneTurning CO 2 to stone Slide 7 Iron Fertilisation Posed at the end of the 1980s,involves dumping tons of iron into the Antarctic to stimulate phytoplankton growth and thereby absorb CO 2Posed at the end of the 1980s,involves dumping tons of iron into the Antarctic to stimulate phytoplankton growth and thereby absorb CO 2 Experiment to enrich a small patch of the Pacific demonstrated that iron fertilization could stimulate the productivity of ocean plants Estimates suggest that just one pound of iron could produce enough plankton to sequester 100,000 pounds of CO 2 - even if only 1% efficient half a ton of carbon could be sequestered for 10 cents Slide 8 Problems with Iron Fertilisation EfficacyEfficacy Where does the CO 2 go? Could stay in the ocean, or quickly leak out into the atmosphere Water returns to natural condition so frequent seeding required EfficiencyEfficiency Even if it works, only offset ~1/3 of global CO 2 emissions Side effectsSide effects Growth of phytoplankton on a massive scale will alter the ecology with unknown consequences Decay of organic matter could remove oxygen from surrface, kill marine life and even generate methane Slide 9 After 15 years and 11 large- scale experiments no conclusion as to whether plankton emit more greenhouse gases than they absorb, or could cause disruptive nutrient shiftsAfter 15 years and 11 large- scale experiments no conclusion as to whether plankton emit more greenhouse gases than they absorb, or could cause disruptive nutrient shifts However, two San Francisco- based companies, Planktos and Climos, are planning to sell carbon-offset credits in the form of iron scattered in the PacificHowever, two San Francisco- based companies, Planktos and Climos, are planning to sell carbon-offset credits in the form of iron scattered in the Pacific Iron seeding might fall under the Environmental Protection Agency's 1988 Ocean Dumping Act but only applies to boats registered as USIron seeding might fall under the Environmental Protection Agency's 1988 Ocean Dumping Act but only applies to boats registered as US Problems with Iron Fertilisation Slide 10