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Ｓｈｒｉｎｋｉｎｇ Local Cities in Japan

Making Communities sustainable under depopulation and rapid aging

The North-Central Area of Kyoto Prefecture in Anguish over Depopulation

COSTSept. 2013Prof. & Dr. Hiroshi YahagiRyukoku University

１） General Outlook of Depopulation and Aging in Japan

２） Challenges of Local Cities Facing to Depopulation and Aging

One Example : Ayabe City in the Northern Area of Kyoto-prefecture

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General Outlook of Depopulation and Aging in Japan

Japan is the most advanced in developed countries

1) Depopulation 2) Aging (older than 65 years old

128milions

87millions

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Challenges of Demographic Change in Japan

2010 2060

Population 128,057 86,737 (1000) ▲32.3％

Japan is to lose 1/3 of its population in the next 50 years

Aging 23.0% 39.9% 2 per 5 △16.9㌽

(over 65) Working Age 63.8% 50.9%(15-64)

2035: Aging 33.4% 2046： less than 100 m.国勢調査＋社会保障・人口問題研究所(National Institute of Population and Social Security Research ＮＩＰＳＳＲ）

Challenges of Demographic Change in Japan

１）The Causes of ｄｅpopulation are due to the low birthrate. The low birthrate is due to ① with later marriage

② ｆｅｗｅｒ ｃｈｉｌｄｒｅｎ

ｔｈｅ ｔｏｔａｌ ｆｅｒｔｉｌｉｔｙ ｒａｔｅ（ＴＦＲ）

2010 2024 2060

1.39 1.35 1.33

２）aｇｉｎｇ is going ahead due to ① the low birthrate② longevity

2010 2060 the average m. 79.64 86.39 longevity (years old) f. 84.19 90.93

( NIPSSR)

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Ｌｉｖｉｎｇ ｌｏｎｇｅｒ ｉｓ ＯＫ！

Pｒｏｂｌｅｍｓ ａｒｅ ｔｈｅ ｓｈａｐｅ ｏｆｄｅｍｏｇｒａｐｈｉｃ ｓｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅ

From Tree to Kite ＜From Ministry of H. L. & W.>Japanese Population Pyramids

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Who will support whom?

Population Age 65 and over----------------------------Population Age 20-64

＜From Ministry of H. L. & W.>

With this changing structure of population,

Japan has to face up to many difficulties economically and socially

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First of all ⇒ ｉｎｆｕｌｕｅｎｃｅｓ on Ｎａｔｉｏｎａｌ ＥｃｏｎｏｍｙWith the decreasing working population, the growth

of national economy is expected to become lower.

・ GDP is decided with Population × Productivity

・ To Keep individual income stable, we have to develop New Urban Industries of high-productivity.

ex. Life-science, energy-saving technology, high-speed-transportation, welfare-related technology・・・

Secondly

Soaring Social welfare expenditure

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１）The total social security expenditure has more than doubled over the past 20 years.

２）That is expected to increase further as the population ages.＜From Ministry of H. L. & W.>

Today:• Social security is based on big amounts of

“public budget” and social insurance payment.• The public expenditure for social security is

becoming a huge part of the national budget.• The budget money comes from tax and bonds.

Actually the amount of bonds is getting bigger year by year.

Not sustainable any more !• We have to stop passing the burden on to future

generations.

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Thirdly

Marginalization of local cities becomes a dominant landscape in the countryside of Japan

Especially in remote communities from the city center of local city

marginalization of city: that cannot sustain a certain degree of quality of urban facilities — education, medical services, retail, and cultural functions

Today more than 50 % of cities with the population of 100,000 or over is decreasing population in Japan.

The smaller the city is, the more marginalized it is!

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IntroducingSmall Challenges and their Small

Achievements by a Small city

A Case Introduction: Ayabe City:a typical local city in the northern area of Kyoto Prefecture

Tango AreaMiyazu

Maizuru

FukuchiyamaAyabe

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Tango Area1) The climate of Tango is very severe especially in winter

season with heavy snow.2) Tango Area is situated at mountain areas where the

space for agriculture is limited. 3) The spatial developments (ex. highways, high-speed

railways and industrial developments) have been done along the Pacific Ocean for the last half century, ignoring the areas along the Japan Sea. Tango is situated in the so-called backyard of Japan.

4) Besides agriculture, forestry and fishy, its main economy was a textile industry. But the textile industry had gone out as the result of global competition with developing countries.Today no private investment is not expected there so far.

82

72Fukuchiyama福知山市

92

80 Maizuru舞鶴市

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29 Ayabe綾部市21.5

15.7 Miyazu宮津市

0

50

100

2010 2035

（１０００）

（年）

Depopulation of 4 cities in Tango

▲23.4％

▲23.4%

Depopulation in next 25

years

▲23.1

▲27.0％

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Aging(%)2035

39.0

35.934.932.031.4

Tango Area

Ayabe was historically a Textile Industry City with the population of over 50,000.

But Ayabe has lost its industrial base completely ⇒ a typical shrinking city

2010Ayabe 35,836 population

33.2% aging

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Recently City of Ayabe introduced 2 policies to keep communities

sustainable under rapid depopulation and aging

Ⅰ．

1. Policies to increase permanent populationa. Introducing vacant houses to would-be residentsb. Assisting for new farmersc. Introducing job-opportunities, for instance in the section of

social works2. Financial support for new comers who like to have a

house within the city.a. ￥ 3milions loan at low rate for renovating a vacant houseb. Renting vacant houses as public houses at low rent after

the city rents theｍ from the owners

Increasing: 98 families & 230 persons from 2007 to 2012 !

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Ⅱ．

Marginalized communities ⇒ definition: over 50% of residents is 65 years old and over.

56 marginalized settlements among 196 settlements in Ayabe

Objects of the ordinance:1) Promoting settlement of new comers 2) Promoting exchange with people living in cities ⇒ Networking with cities in metropolitan areas3) Discovering natural resources and nurturing them

as local community business ⇒ Ｔhat is, Discovering local GIVENs and Developing them

5 settlements at the marginalized areas aredesignated as “Settlements at Riverheads” by the ordinance until 2013

What has been goingat the ５ marginalized settlements after the ordinance was set ?

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What has been going?

１） Promoting settlement of new comers a. subsidy for new settlement: ￥50,000 per

month for the first yearb. supplying low-rent-public houses for new

settlement

What has been going?

2) Promoting exchange with people living in citiesa. ownership of vegetable-producing fields by city-living

people b. home-delivery of products to city-living people with

￥5000 as annual member’s fee c. having festivals and sports events inviting city-living

people

With these relations, people living in cities come to the remote settlements occasionally, and find out the charm of living in a country-side.

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ownership of vegetable-producing fields by city-living people

Festivals

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Ｗｈａｔ ｈａｓ ｂｅｅｎ ｇｏｉｎｇ？

3) Discovering natural resources and nurturing them as local community business a. making & selling cookie made from horse chestnuts b. opening the MARKET along the main street on a mountain pass to the next city and selling local products

c. The local people started a small factory of manufacturing food products by using local resources (rice, nuts, vegetables, fruits and mushrooms) by themselves with the small subsidy from the city of Ayabe、creating small job opportunities.

cookie made from horse chestnuts

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With the Local Ordinance 9 families and 25 persons have come in for the last 5 years

A small change, but meaningful change for the remote & isolated communities

Turning year

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50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2012

Combination of 3 factorsTo Succeed in Keeping

Communities SustainableActivating

SpantaneousMovement

by local people33.3%

MakingNetworks

with outsideworld

33.3%

Utilizing &Nurturing

Local Resouces33.3%

Å Small Lesson Combination of 3 factors