General Market Conditions 4 June 2020 Spending Monitor · [email protected] Spending Monitor...

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Investment Research — General Market Conditions

Danish spending data up to and including 3 June confirms that card and MobilePay

spending are nearing normal levels. The different timing of holidays between 2019 and

2020 unfortunately leads to a lot of noise in the data at the moment. Also, the reduction

in cash usage (not included here) implies that spending is still a bit below normal levels,

but overall the data is looking up.

As expected, when different parts of the economy open up, an increase in spending

follows. The opening of restaurants two weeks ago has led to a doubling of spending

compared with before the opening, though spending remains below normal levels and

is likely to remain so as long as coronavirus-related restrictions still apply.

The opening of amusement parks and tourist attractions over the last week has clearly

lead to higher activity, though we are still only seeing spending at around half of normal

levels. The data only tracks spending by Danish customers, and hence does not take

into account the decline in spending by foreigners.

Cinemas also opened, but spending is still 80% below normal levels. Coronavirus-

related restrictions and the postponed release dates of a number of movies implies that

we do not expect to see a quick return to normal levels.

There are signs that transportation patterns are returning to normal, with higher

spending in gas stations and on public transport. Spending by Danes in hotels has risen

as well.

Signs of recovery continue, with total spending around a normal level

Note: Spending by card and MobilePay does not include cash and account transfers; hence, it cannot be

compared directly with private consumption in national accounts. Grey areas mark holidays in 2020 and

2019 that are timed differently from one year to another. These include Easter, the General Prayer Day,

Ascension Day and Whitsun Sunday and Monday.

Source: Danske Bank

4 June 2020

Senior Analyst Louise Aggerstrøm Hansen +45 45 12 85 31 +45 22 45 20 65 [email protected]

Spending Monitor

Spending continues to improve in early June

Notes on the spending data

The spending data is based on transactions online and offline, both domestically and abroad, with cards and MobilePay in stores for around 1m Danske Bank Danish personal customers with active accounts. All data is anonymised and non-referable.

The spending data is used as a proxy for private consumption. However, it does not include cash spending and account transfers. Hence, notably, fixed costs and spending on housing are not included. Also changes in cash spending patterns might affect the data.

The charts show spending in March, April, May and June 2020 compared with the same weekdays in 2019 (this is to correct for different spending patterns across the week). Data is not adjusted for price developments.

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2 | 4 June 2020 https://research.danskebank.com

Spending Monitor

Selected charts with relative changes

Grocery store spending at more normal levels

Health-related spending sees large distortions around

holidays

Source: Danske Bank Source: Danske Bank

Clothing stores are seeing more normal spending patterns

Spending in shoe stores is approaching a normal level


Activity in restaurants has gone up significantly, but remains

below normal levels

Clear signs of improvement in hotel spending, but a long way

from usual levels

Note: Restaurants include bars and nightclubs

Source: Danske Bank

Source: Danske Bank


Spending Monitor

Spending in electronic stores remains elevated

DIY spending is still significantly above normal levels


Increased spending in gas stations in May as mobility

gradually rises

Transportation spending is rising slowly


Opticians are at a more normal level

Spending at hairdressers has returned to a more normal level,

but closed days around holidays give large distortions



Spending Monitor

Cinemas have opened, but activity remains well below normal

levels

Clear signs of effects from the opening of tourists attractions

– but note, data only covers spending by Danish consumers


No significant signs of improvement in air travel

Travel spending is still very depressed


Spending in cosmetics stores is elevated, as higher foot traffic

in department stores seems to have helped further

Spending in furniture stores has recovered



Spending Monitor

Spending on paint has been significantly above average during

lockdown – in line with DIY spending

Spending in book stores has rebounded following the opening

of department stores



Spending Monitor

Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The author of this research report is

Louise Aggerstrøm Hansen, Analyst.

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Spending Monitor

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Report completed: 4 June 2020, 12:16 CEST

Report first disseminated: 4 June 2020, 12:50 CEST

General Market Conditions 4 June 2020 Spending Monitor · [email protected] Spending Monitor...

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