Geidner Final Version of Thesis April 2007

8/3/2019 Geidner Final Version of Thesis April 2007

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New Media and Presidential Campaigns 1

THE INFLUENCE OF NEW MEDIA ON THE EARLY STAGES

OF THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS

A THESIS

SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL

IN PARTIAL FULLFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS

FOR THE DEGREE

MASTER OF ARTS

BY

NICHOLAS W. GEIDNER

JAMES W. CHESEBRO

BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

MUNCIE, INDIANA

MAY 2007


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Table of Contents

Title Page 1

Table of Contents 2

List of Tables 3

Dedication 4

Acknowledgement 5

Abstract 6

Chapter I: Introduction 7

Chapter II: Literature Review 20

Chapter III: Methods 39

Chapter IV: Findings 47

Chapter V: Discussion 64

References 69

Endnotes 75

Appendix A - Full Criteria for Evaluating Presidential Campaign Websites 76

Appendix B - 2008 Presidential Candidates and Website Addresses 85

Appendix C - Results from Evaluating the Clinton and Obama Websites 87

Appendix D - Screenshot of Entry Page intoHillaryClinton.com 91

Appendix E - Screenshot of Entry Page intoBarackObama.com 92


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List of Tables

Table 1 - Primary Source News Source for Political Information 10

Table 2 - Previous Presidential Candidate Websites 14

Table 3 - New York Times/CBS News Poll for Previous Democratic Primaries 18

Table 4 - Six Ways of using the Web for the 1996 Presidential Campaign 25

Table 5 - Advantages of Clintons Website 49

Table 6 - Advantages of Obamas Website 50

Table 7 - Deficiencies Found in Both Websites 51

Table 8 - Findings from Examination of 16 Presidential Campaign Websites 58


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Dedication

This volume is dedicated to the memory of my mentor, teacher, and father, Robert M.

Geidner. Without his unending support and guidance, this volume and countless other

things in my life would not have been possible.


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Acknowledgements

I would like to acknowledge my appreciation to Dr. James W. Chesebro for his guidance

and confidence towards the completion of this thesis. I am also grateful to Dr. Joseph P.

Misiewicz and Professor Timothy Pollard for their constructive criticism in the writing of

this thesis. I would also like to thank my family and friends for their constant unselfish

support and patience, especially my mother, Mary Geidner.


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Abstract

The Internet is rapidly becoming an important part of a presidential candidates media

strategy. Specifically, a candidates website has distinct implications and uses in the early

stages of a presidential campaign. Using an eclectic approach, this research examines the

campaign websites of the candidates for the U.S. Presidency in 2008. By examining the

websites using content analysis, analog criticism, media criticism, and scenario analysis

emerging trends become apparent and conclusions on their further implications can be

drawn. This research presents two major conclusions on the affects of campaign websites

on the early stages of a presidential campaign. First, the design structure and features

available on the Internet could be used to give the user a feeling of direct connection with

the campaign, which in turn could motivate political involvement. Second, a candidates

new media strategy and usage must match with the overarching rhetorical style of the rest

of the campaign. These two major concepts serve as starting points for further academic

research and a greater understanding of our changing democratic system.


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Chapter I: Introduction

Governor Howard Dean was practically unknown at the beginning of the 2004

election season. He was a leftist democrat from the second smallest state in the union.

However, by using new media he was able to create a large base of support and become

the media-proclaimed frontrunner for the democratic nomination. His unlikely run has

changed the way politicians campaign for the presidency and has pointed out the

opportunities new media technologies offer candidates.

The way politicians communicate to their constituents and the electorate has

changed dramatically in the last fifteen years. In 1996, it was newsworthy, if not startling,

for Senator Robert Dole to cite his website in the closing remarks of the first presidential

debate (Davis, 1999; Klinesberg & Perrin, 2000; Klotz, 2004). This was a move which

caught the medias imagination and quickly became symbolic of the Internets political

arrival (Chadwick, 2006). It has changed dramatically since then. As the 2008

presidential campaign has evolved it is now common for a politician to use and reference

a website in announcing a presidential bid. A clear understanding of how to effectively

use those media is imperative.

This research seeks to determine the degree to which web pages are becoming a

greater force in controlling political campaign processes and outcomes. It does this

through an eclectic approach. Four methods will be simultaneously used to derive an

understanding of new medias influence. These methods are content analysis, analog

criticism, media criticism, and scenario analysis. By using numerous methodological

analyses, this study will highlight the current effects of new media on the early stages of

the 2008 campaign and make predictions about the further implications of these findings.


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Rationale for Study

The 2008 United States presidential election will be unprecedented in a number of

ways. This is the first presidential election since 1952 to have open tickets on both sides

of the aisle. Because President Bush is in his second term and his Vice President has no

presidential aspirations, no candidate during the 2008 primaries will be able to directly

use the power of the White House. Accordingly, a large number of candidates are running

for each of the major partys nominations. A number of the most prominent politicians in

current American democracy have announced their candidacy. This list includes Senators

Hillary Clinton (D-NY), John McCain (R-AZ), Barack Obama (D-IL), and Joseph Biden

(D-DE), former New York City Mayor Rudy Guilianni, former Massachusetts Governor

Mitt Romney, and a number of others. Moreover, this list includes both a legitimate

African American candidate and a legitimate female candidate, which is clearly not the

norm in American presidential politics. The stiff competition in the primaries is likely to

have a large effect on the media usage of the campaigns.

This election will also be the first election when all of the presidential candidates

employ the Internet from the inception of the campaign. With 73% of Americans using

the Internet (Pew Internet, 2006, p.3), it is hard to imagine that any candidate can afford

to ignore this increasingly significant medium. In previous elections, the candidates have

had some Internet presence. For example, as early as 1996, both Senator Dole and

President Clinton had fully functioning websites, although there are major differences

between those sites and what is currently possible via new media technologies.

The Clinton and Dole web pages of 1996 did little more than promote the

candidate. They were fairly unchanging with the only updates being the newest press


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releases from the campaign. Indeed, it is not misleading to say that the candidates used

their web sites predominantly for press releases (Klinenberg & Perrin, 2000, Klotz,

2004).

Since that time, web technologies have become much more sophisticated.

Promoting the candidate can include the use of weblogs (blogs), targeted e-mails,

streaming video, photo galleries and a number of other new technologies. Innovations in

the 2008 election cycle could include content specialization, virtual world debates,

grassroots organizing through online social networks, and various other new media uses.

These new forms of political communication act to promote the candidate to increasingly

specialized segments of the population. Beyond promotion, political websites can now

also be used to solicit donations, recruit and organize volunteers, connect supporters to

each other, develop platforms and ideological positions, and act as a constant feedback

loop to the campaign. This became particularly vivid in 2004 when the model for new

media usage by campaigns shifted. The website morphed from a promotion-centered

model to a model that continued to promote but added connection and involvement.

In all, these new technologies are creating a larger role for new media in

upcoming elections, but it is equally clear that, in 2008, television will remain the

dominant medium for the general public in gaining political information. As Table 1

indicates, the Internet has been growing as a source of political information, but

television continues to dominate as a news source for political campaigns. While the

percentage of people using the Internet for political data has continued to rise, television,

for now, continues to function as the dominant medium. While television remains

powerful, it has severe limits for a candidate.


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Table 1: Primary News Source for Political Information1

1992 1996 2000 2004

Television 82% 72% 70% 78%

Newspaper 57% 60% 39% 39%

Radio 12% 19% 15% 17%

Internet NA 3% 11% 18%

Magazines 11% 11% 4% 3%

There are essentially only two forms of television coverage available for

politicians running for President. The first is paid political ads and the second is through

news coverage of events. In the early stages of a campaign neither of these can

reasonably be gained. Using television advertising to gain name recognition and build a

candidates national or regional image would be exceedingly expensive and for the news

to cover a candidate they must be deemed a legitimate competitor. This gives the Internet

an incredible advantage in the early stages of a campaign to build the candidates national

base of support and to elevate the candidate into a legitimate presidential candidate.

Therefore, it is now an appropriate time to examine the effective use of the Internet as a

significant variable in a presidential campaigns communication strategy in the early

stages of a campaign.

The Internet also has a number of clear advantages over television due to the

nature of the medium. A politicians website can act as a completely direct and unfiltered

access point to the electorate. It can also be expansive and encyclopedic. A candidates


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website can contain a seemingly endless supply of information. It is not limited, like the

thirty-second spot or the twelve-second sound bite (Klotz, 2004; Benoit & Benoit, 2005).

Along with its advantages, the Internet by its nature has a number of flaws. First,

for any website to work a user needs to actively go to the site. This limits random

exposure greatly. The encyclopedic nature of the Internet can also act as a flaw. If an

issue or section is omitted on the website a user might have a different reaction than when

the same issue is omitted from a speech or not mentioned in a campaign ad (Klotz, 2004).

Politicians vying for the Presidency in 2008 will have to balance the pros and

cons of the Internet to successfully wage a new media campaign. To do this they will

have to use their websites to build and create a national base of support in the early stages

of the campaign. This study will examine new media usage in the early stages of the 2008

presidential campaign. It will do this through a series of analyses and predictions based

on the current websites of a number of candidates running for the Presidency in 2008.

Necessary Terms

This research will use various terms when discussing the topics presented within.

It is imperative that a broad understanding of these terms is accepted as they are used.

Various sources will be used to reach the most accurate definition of the terms as they are

used in this research. First, the termscenario will be used extensively in this research.

Merriam-Websters (n.d.) online dictionary defines a scenario as a sequence of events

especially when imagined; especially: an account or synopsis of a possible course of

action or events. This definition starts to describe a scenario as it will be used within this

document. It will, in fact, be an imagined sequence of events, but how it will be derived

is more specific than the above definition. Sage and Chobot state, A scenario attempts to


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construct a logical sequence of events leading from the present, or any other given

situation, to a forecast future state (p. 163). Scenario in this research will be used to

describe a logically derived sequence of events, which meet the forecasted goals of that

scenario. The particular goals of the scenarios in this research will be discussed further in

the methods section.

Another term or phase, which will be used in this research, is the early stages of a

campaign. For the purpose of this research the early stages of the campaign refers to the

time period in a presidential campaign from the candidates formal announcement of the

intent to campaign for president to the date of the first primary or caucuses. At this time

the campaigns focus should shift from building a national base to a major get out to vote

effort. The get out to vote effort will involve large-scale use of multiple media and is

outside the scope of this research. The 2008 election is already in its early stages with a

number of candidates already formally announcing their candidacy. The early stages of

the 2008 election will end on January 14, 2008, the day of the Iowa caucuses. The early

stages of the 2008 campaign will be -- thus far -- the longest on record extending beyond

a full year.

The conceptpresidential candidate is also used extensively in this research.

Althoughpresidential candidate is a phrase, which can be applied to any qualified person

who files the requisite paperwork to be on the ballot, this study will only be referring to

the major party candidates when it uses the phasepresidential candidate. Third party and

independent candidates come from too many varying backgrounds and political positions

to accurately predict how they can most effectively use new media. The candidates from

the major parties, Democratic and Republican, allow for extensive research into their


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history and issues. This history strengthens the scenario and acts as a base from which to

extend the scenario.

There are also a number of technology related terms, which will have specific

meanings when referenced to in this research. First, the termsInternet technologies and

new media technologies will be used synonymously throughout. TheInternetas defined

by Mattises Glossary of Internet Terms (Enzer, 2006) is The vast collection of inter-

connected networks that are connected using the TCP/IP protocols and that evolved from

the ARPANET of the late 60's and early 70's. Merriam-Webster (n.d.) defines

technology as the practical application of knowledge especially in a particular area.

Using these definitions as a basis,Internet technologies will refer to the practical

application of knowledge spawned from the vast collection of inter-connected networks

described above. This large, general group encompasses a number of the key

technologies that will be used in the scenarios. This ranges from the very broad concepts

of e-mail and the World Wide Web to more specific applications of Internet technologies,

like blogs, meet-ups, or virtual worlds.

The main topic of this volume is candidates websites; therefore a standard

definition of this is needed. A website is defined by Mattises Glossary of Internet Terms

(Enzer, 2006) as:

The entire collection of web pages and other information (such as images, sound,

and video files, etc.) that are made available through what appears to users as a

single web server. Typically all of the pages in a web site share the same basic

URL, for example the following URLs are all for pages within the same web site:

http://www.baytherapy.com/, http://www.baytherapy.com/whatis/,


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http://www.baytherapy.com/teenagers/. The term has a somewhat informal nature

since a large organization might have separate "web sites" for each division, but

someone might talk informally about the organizations' "web site" when speaking

of all of them.

This general definition for a website will be used throughout the research, but in many

cases a more specific definition of apresidential candidates website will be needed. A

presidential candidates website will refer to the collection of web pages and other

information approved and maintained by a presidential candidate or campaign. To be

examined as apresidential candidates website, the site must contain a phase, which

clearly states that the website is paid for by the election committee. Some examples of

how this might be worded include, Paid for by Obama for America or Paid for By

John McCain 2008. Table 2 lists the previous presidential candidate websites, which are

examined as part of this research. There also will be a number of 2008 presidential

Table 2: Previous Presidential Candidate Websites

Year Candidates Original Web Address

1996 Bill Clinton and Al Gore Cg96.org

1996 Bob Dole and Jack Kemp Dolekemp96.org

2000 George W. Bush and Dick Cheney Georgewbush.com

2000 Al Gore and Joe Lieberman Algore.com

2004 George W. Bush and Dick Cheney Georgewbush.com

2004 John Kerry and John Edwards Johnkerry.com

2004 Howard Dean Deanforamerica.com


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candidate websites analyzed in this research, specifically Senator Barack Obamas

website,Barackobama.com, and Senator Hillary Clintons website,Hillaryclinton.com.

This will be explored more in the methods section of this volume.

Weblogorblogis another term, which needs to be clearly defined. Mattises

Glossary of Internet Terms (Enzer, 2006) defines a blog as:

A blog is basically a journal that is available on the web. The activity of updating

a blog is "blogging" and someone who keeps a blog is a "blogger." Blogs are

typically updated daily using software that allows people with little or no

technical background to update and maintain the blog. Postings on a blog are

almost always arranged in chronological order with the most recent additions

featured most prominently.

Lawson-Borders and Kirk (2005) offer a more concise definition by stating, Weblogs or

blogs are defined as online diaries where information is electronically posted, updated

frequently, and presented in reverse chronological order (p. 548). In previous

campaigns, blog content has been much less formal than content on the candidates

official website. Like the definition for apresidential candidates website, apresidential

candidates blogwill clearly state that its creation and maintenance is paid for by the

election committee.

Meet-ups are another term that is going to be discussed through out this research.

Meetup.com (n.d.), the company that popularized this kind of communication, describes

their service as help[ing] people find others who share their interest or cause, and form

lasting, influential, local community groups that regularly meet face-to-face. In the

political arena, this online community-building technique was made famous by Howard


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Deans 2004 presidential campaign. The Dean Campaign used meetups.com to allow

individuals to create grassroots get-togethers in their communities. President Bush and

Senator Kerry both ended up using meet-up style social connection and organization tools

on their websites in the 2004 campaign. This research will define meet-ups as an internet

technology, which allows individuals to find other individuals in their local area that

share similar interests and encourages those individuals to meet face-to-face. In most

cases, this research will be discussing meet-ups, which center on one interest, the support

of a presidential candidate.

This research also examines how candidates can use online social networks in

campaigns. Online social networks will be defined as closed web-based communities,

which must have the two following characteristics. They must allow the user to create a

profile and connect to other users within the community (Geidner, Bell, & Flook, 2006).

Some current examples of online social networks include The Facebook, MySpace, and

Friendster.

The phase virtual worldwill also need to have a shared definition. This research

will use Schroeder, Heather, and Lees (1998) definition as its basis. They state a virtual

worldis a system in which many users can interact with each other via text windows in

a three-dimensional computer-generated world (para. 4). They go on to say that in most

virtual worlds human-like avatars are used to navigate a three dimensional space with

buildings and landscapes. The general concept of virtual worlds has not changed since

1998, but some of the technical abilities have changed. The technical aspects of current

virtual worlds will be discussed in more depth in the upcoming chapters. Second Life,

found atsecondlife.com, is an example of a current large-scale virtual world.


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The last Internet technologies that will be discussed in this section will be the

tandem terms ofdata miningand content specialization.Data miningis a term that

comes from the computer programming discipline. As Wu, Chen, and Chian (2006)

states, Data mining is a technique to recover knowledge from a database. The whole

process of data mining consists in data selection, preprocessing, conversion, data

analysis, and interpretation and evaluation (p. 40). This research will accept the above

definition and use it when discussing the use of databases of user information by

candidates and parties.Data mininghas a number of applications for the campaigns,

including targeted e-mailing or canvassing. Another use would be to specialize the

content of a presidential candidates websites to match the interests and concerns of the

user based on data mining results. Content specialization for this research will refer to the

alteration of a website based of information gained from data mining techniques to

increase the users positive emotional response to the website.

The Drawbacks of Prediction

New media is clearly altering the process of campaigning for U.S. President. It is

imperative that research be presented to examine how these changes are affecting the

state of democracy in America. This research theorizes that by mixing methods and

examining both the current effects and the future implications, the American public can

have a greater understanding of how politicians current actions will guide the future. The

predictions presented here are guided by both scholarly research and practical data. They

represent a starting point and a singular image of the future state of media usage. These

are not meant to be the definitive and cannot be thought of as absolute. They are merely a

beginning from which scholarly discussion, debate, and research can flow.


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By using scenario analysis and prediction as a large part of this research a firm

understanding of the drawbacks of this type of scholarship as it applies to presidential

politics must be understood. The bulk of this research examines the websites of Senators

Clinton and Obama. These candidates represent the current leaders in opinion polls for

the Democratic Partys nomination for the Presidency as of March 10, 2007 (Washington

Post, 2007). However, as Connelly (2007) points out, What national polls are

measuring, mostly, at that stage is name recognition, which may or may not mean

anything when it comes to winning over voters (p. A14). The difficulty inherent in

making predictions using data from the early stages of a campaign is further illustrated in

Table 3. As can be seen, the eventual winner, marked by bold type, was not a heavy

contender during the early stages of the campaign in any of the last three democratic

Table 3: Earliest New York Times/CBS News Poll for Previous Democratic Primaries

2004 1992 1988

Lieberman 14% Brown 12% Hart 33%

Dean 11% Wilder 8% Cuomo 17%

Gephardt 10% Kerrey 7% Jackson 9%

Kerry 5% Clinton 5% Nunn

Sharpton 5% Harkin 3% Gephardt 2%

Graham 4% Tsongas 2% Babbitt 1%

Edwards 2% Biden 1%

Moseley-Braun 2% Dukakis 1%

Kucinich 0%


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primaries, which did not include the White House incumbents, President Bill Clinton and

Vice President Al Gore.

Organization of This Volume

In an attempt to accurately examine the topic of new media usage in presidential

campaigns, this research examines the history of new media in presidential campaigning,

what is currently possible through new Internet technologies, and where the technologies

and candidates are going. Chapter two, the literature review, contains a systematic

examination of the previous empirical research on new media usage of presidential

candidates and campaigns. This section will start with data from the 1992 campaign and

work forward through the 2004 campaign. Chapter three examines the eclectic mix of

methods used in this research and presents the means in which these methods will be

used to address the stated research questions. The fourth chapter presents the results of

the multiple methods used in this research, including a comprehensive analysis of both

Senator Clinton and Obamas websites. The final chapter of this volume analyzes the

further implications that arise from the analysis created in this research. It also discusses

the limitations that affect this research.


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Chapter II: Literature Review

This research analyzes the effects of the Internet on the early stages of a

Presidential campaign. To accurately and effectively understand these effects, previous

research on the topic must be examined. This literature review presents the previous

research in a chronological manner and primarily examines literature, which directly

analysis how new media technologies have affected previous elections. By looking at this

chronologically, a number of themes begin to appear across the years and a general

understanding of the evolution of new media uses and effects will become apparent.

The 1988 presidential campaign can be marked by some major improvements in

communication technology. 1988 was the year that the Democratic and Republican

National Committees discovered the fax machine (Howard, 2006, p. 7), but many of the

new media technologies discussed in this research were not yet available. The World

Wide Web, for example, was not created until 1991 and the web browser was not

available until 1993 (Klotz, 2004). Although, home web browsing did not become

available or popular until after 1992, the 1992 presidential campaign will act as a starting

point for this literature review.

1992

The candidates, in the 1992 presidential contest did not have the ability to spread

their message via the World Wide Web, but this was still the first election in which the

candidates had an Internet presence (Klotz, p. 67, 2004). The use of e-mail and bulletin

board systems by campaigns became popular during the 1992 race (Benson, 1994;

Chadwick, 2006; Howard, 2006; Klotz, 2004; Meyers, 1993). As Klotz (2004) found, the

Clinton-Gore campaign took advantage of new technologies by using e-mail and posting


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press releases, speeches, and position papers on discussion groups and bulletin boards

(p. 67). Chadwick (2006) adds, Bill Clintons staff placed the texts of a few speeches

and some basic biographical sketches on a primitive gopher server (p. 151). Although

Howard (2006) found that overall, the content of the Bush, Clinton, and Perot campaign

discussion groups did not vary much from the content already sent out in fax releases (p.

8). It can be argued that the 1992 campaigns used new media technologies predominantly

to distribute information, which was previously created for use on other media.

In 1992, original content, on the other hand, could be found on privately ran

bulletin boards and listservs. A listserv is an automated mailing program that

automatically forwards mail sent to [a specific address] to anyone subscribed to the list

(Benson, 1994, p. 321). Benson (1994) found that Marist College supported lists for

Clinton, Bush, and Perot during the 1992 election campaign. The Clinton list had as

many as 700 subscribers at its peak and between 11 August and 31 August, the Clinton

list carried the equivalent of some 855 single-spaced pages of electronic mail messages

(pp. 321-322). These lists, which act as a precursor to modern day blogs and message

boards, provided a space for political discussion and debate amongst the general public in

the 1992 election.

Although the content coming directly from the campaigns might have been

lackluster, the 1992 presidential election did allow for the campaigns to understand some

implications of the changing media landscape. First, the candidates realized that the

Internet could act as an inexpensive, unfiltered access point to the electorate. Former

Clinton press secretary, Dee Dee Meyers (1993) explained:


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For the first time, ordinary citizens had an easy way to obtain information that

was previously available only to the national press corps. Instead of seeing an 8-

second sound bite chosen by a network producer, voters could read an entire

speech (p. 183).

Roger Schneider, a former Democratic National Committee consultant, hints that this

new, unfiltered medium could be used for a different style of political communication.

"There's a certain context and content that can go through in an unfiltered fashion It's

getting outside the sound bite barrier (Berger, 1995, para. 2).

Second, the campaigns realized that Internet technologies could allow for the

electorate to connect and get involved with the campaign. The goal, says DNC

consultant Schneider, is to create two-way communications turning the monologue into a

dialogue" (Berger, 1995, para. 26). In 1992, the Clinton campaign believed, they

empowered countless individuals with the ability to participate directly in the political

dialogue (Meyers, 1993, p.183). During the campaign, one popular Clinton discussion

group received over eight hundred postings per week (Klotz, 2004, p. 67).

Finally, the campaigns realized during the 1992 election that speed of political

communication was changing (Bimber, 2004). As Meyers (1993) states:

Through the proliferation of computer modems, faxes, e-mail, interactive

satellites, and other new modes of communication, several rounds of charges and

countercharges are often exchanged in time for the evening news (pp. 181-182).

The Internet, along with various new technologies, allowed information to travel at a rate

much faster than during previous campaigns.


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Although the 1992 campaigns did make progress in beginning to understand the

importance of new media technologies, the audience wasnt there yet. Pew Surveys found

that only three percent of Americans were using the Internet in 1993 (Pew Surveys as

cited in Klotz, 2004, p. 18). Therefore, the campaigns could not realistically devote a lot

of time and resources to a medium that wasnt being used yet. By time the 1996

campaign came around this had changed dramatically (Pew Internet, 2006). The 1996

race between Senator Bob Dole and incumbent President Bill Clinton can be examined as

the first Internet campaign (Chadwick, 2006; Klotz, 2004; Howard, 2006).

1996

If the 1992 election taught campaigns how to use the Internet, 1996 clearly taught

them how to use the World Wide Web (Chadwick, 2006). In the four years, between the

1992 and 1996 elections, the media landscape had changed vastly. In 1993, the graphical

web browser Mosaic was released to the public. It represented a huge improvement over

primitive browsers by allowing images and easier navigation (Klotz, 2004, p. 12). It

popularized the World Wide Web to the general public, which is made evident by the

dramatic increase in Internet users (DAlessio, 2000). A 1996 Pew Survey reported 23%

of Americans used the Internet compared to the 3% figure from 1992 (Pew Surveys as

cited in Klotz, 2004, p. 18).

With this increase in audience, the importance of websites in campaign

communication increased. Early in the 1996 presidential campaignit became obvious

that the Internet would be a component of elector campaigns (Davis, 1999, p. 87). As

Klinenberg & Perrin (2000) found all the major campaigns were on-line in 1996 (p.


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18), including President Clinton, Senator Bob Dole, Senator Richard Lugar, Pat

Buchanan, and a number of other candidates and potential candidates.

There were signs that 1996 was going to be a revolutionary year for political

communication. Both major parties had fully functioning websites (Davis, 1999). These

sites would serve as prototypes for todays much more sophisticated and interactive

versions (Chadwick, 2006, p. 152). Republican presidential candidate Lamar Alexander

made history by conducting online discussions with supporters through his website

(Chadwick, 2006; Davis, 1999). But as will be seen 1996, like 1992, would become

primarily a learning opportunity for the campaigns.

Through examining the scholarship that came out of the 1996 campaign, it

becomes clear that the 1996 election was about having an Internet presence as opposed to

creating a fully interactive website populated with specialized content. Campaigns

emphasized their Web presence over the content they provided (Klinenberg and Perrin,

2000, p. 18). This became abundantly clear when Republican nominee Bob Dole

promoted his website in the closing minutes of the first presidential debate. He told

people to go toDoleKemp96org, ironically omitting the dot between 96 and org

(Klinenberg and Perrin, 2000; Klotz, 2004).

Klinenberg and Perrin (2000) examined the websites of a number of Republican

candidates during the 1996 presidential primary season. Their list included Senator Bob

Dole, Pat Buchanan, Steve Forbes, United States Secretary of Education Lamar

Alexander, and Senator Phil Gramm. The authors examined the websites of the above

candidates, weekly from January 20, 1996 to April 1, 1996, for six distinct variables.

These variables can be found in table 4 and will act as a guide in later sections.


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Table 4: Six Ways of using the Web for the 1996 Presidential Campaign2

Variable Name Examples

Organizing, Networking, and Fundraising Collecting supporter names and pressing

for donations

Political Education and Substance Position papers, speeches, and quotes

Community Building Chat rooms and message boards

Cyber Celebration Discussion of candidates commitment to

high-tech society

Links to Other Sites Links to outside websites, such as

newspaper articles

Interactivity Flat tax calculator or Bob Dole trivia

Of the six variables, interactivity was the most underused and least understood

feature of the Internet by the 1996 campaigns. On interactivity, Klinenberg and Perrin

(2000) found that in 1996 the presidential campaigns lacked either the interest or the

ability to use these features of the web and the Internet in general (p. 33). The authors

continue by stating, their use of the webshows that in 1996 political campaigning on

the Internet was merely an alternative way of publishing traditional campaign materials

(p. 34). Chadwick (2006) found most sites were infrequently updated (p. 152) and

amounted to little more than brochureware or simple HTML versions of campaign

literature that had been produced for the offline campaign (p. 152). Klotz (2004) further

agrees stating that in 1996 presidential campaign websites were primarily used for

information dissemination and were one-directional in nature (p. 69). Although the


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assessment of the 1996 websites is bleak, there were a number of features that are worth

mentioning.

Of the five primary sites examined, Klinenberg and Perrin (2000) found two,

which fulfilled the community building variable. These were the presidential campaign

websites of Pat Buchanan and Lamar Alexander. Buchanans website accomplished this

by having theBuchanan Brigade message board, which contained excepts from

messages sent to the campaign (p. 28). Lamar Alexanders website was based around

the theme come on along and emphasized community building (p. 31). As mentioned

previously, during the primary campaign Alexander hosted online discussions with his

supporters. Although, community building might not have been thought of as a success in

1996, it continues to be a primary goal in political Internet usage.

President Clintons campaign website also had some interesting features. It

included, for example, a Be Your Own Pundit section. This was supposed to be a

section, which supported community building and interactivity by allowing free flowing

debate and discussion. Unfortunately, the Clinton campaign ended up censoring any

negative messages (Chadwick, 2006; Klotz, 2004).

The Clinton campaign website was also used as a fundraising tool. This became

the norm in 1996. Forty-seven percent of [congressional] candidates included

solicitations for contributions on the Web site (Davis, 1999, p. 108). Although in the

1996 election these solicitations ended up being generally unsuccessful. Secure servers

for credit card transactions were almost non-existent (Chadwick, 2006, p.153) in 1996

and if they were campaigns for federal office were not allowed to accept donations via

credit card (Davis, 1999, p. 108). Therefore, even a high profile candidate like incumbent


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President Bill Clinton could only raise an estimated ten thousand dollars through his

website (p. 109).

With the Internet still in its infancy, it is questionable whether users picked up any

political knowledge from the presidential campaign websites in 1996. Using survey data

Johnson, Braima, and Sothirajah (1999) found a negative relationship between Internet

usage and political knowledge. Although the authors add, The poor performance of the

Internet in improving voter knowledge does not mean that its proponents hopes that the

Web could transform media coverage and campaigns away from soundbites to substance

are wrong, but simply premature (Johnson et al., 1999, p. 114). Howard (2006), on the

other hand, did find that the Internet seemed to have a constructive role in political

debate (p. 10).

In the end, the 1996 presidential election allowed the campaigns to learn about the

opportunities the Web had to offer (Johnson et al. 1999). It appears that the candidates,

campaign managers, and the media were just beginning to feel their way around the new

medium (Chadwick, 2006, p. 152). All the major presidential campaigns had websites,

which promoted their candidates. Some even tried using interactive and community

building features to enhance their sites. Though overall the presidential campaign sites of

the 1996 election were seen as single-direction communication and brochureware

(Chadwick, 2006; Klotz, 2004). In 1996, it is clear the Internet served as added exposure

for the candidates, rather than the main avenue for campaigning. Drawing from the

experiences of 1996, online politics would enter the modern era in 2000 (Klotz, 2004).

2000


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The 2000 election represents the first election where the Internet was a majority

medium (Klotz, 2004; Pew Internet, 2006). By then web pages had become a standard

part of political campaigning (Hansen & Benoit, 2005). In 1996 merely having a website

was enough, but with 2000 campaign there were heightened expectations about the use

of the Internet by campaigns (Klotz, 2004, p. 72). Because of the heightened profile of

presidential candidate websites in the 2000 election season academic research in this area

became much more prevalent.

One major improvement in web usage in the 2000 campaign was moving away

from the brochureware model from previous elections (Chadwick, 2006). Design

became much more important. In their examination of the Bush and Gore campaign

websites, Benoit & Benoit (2005) set-up a useful set of criteria for evaluating campaign

websites. The authors state, that the purpose of these criteria is not to assess a Web

pages persuasiveness (p. 246), but only to assess the Web page design. Although, it can

be argued that a Web site cannot be effective in its persuasion, if it does not practice

effective design (Fogg, 2003).

Benoit and Benoits (2005) criterion contains 65-points broken down into 11

sections. The adapted Benoit and Benoit criteria, which is used in this research is

included in Appendix A. The sections are as follows: identification, navigation,

readability, irritability, information accessibility, interest level, information breadth and

depth, issues, support, adapted to audience and interactive (pp. 237-244). The 11

categories are fairly self-explanatory, with a few exceptions. The first category,

identification, assess whether the site provides clear information about its origin and

ways to contact the originator (p. 237). The irritability category looks at the huge


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negatives that can turn a user against a page, such as pop-up windows and poor usage of

frames (p. 241). The fifth category, interest level, assesses features that pull the user

deep into the site (p. 242). The support category examines if there is evidence of

backing, positive regard, or preliminary victories (p. 243). Finally, the interactive

category determines if the websites give the user ample opportunity to act. This action

can be through various means, such as online polls, chat rooms, or through the ability to

easily contribute money (p. 244). Overall the Benoit and Benoit criteria are a very useful

tool for judging the usability of political websites and will be used in later sections of this

research.

By applying this criterion to the websites of the 2000 presidential candidates it

was found that the websites of Vice President Al Gore and then-Governor George W.

Bush had a lot in common (Benoit & Benoit, 2005). For example, they both offered

identification and contact information in the same manner (p. 244). It was also found that

both sites fulfilled the readability criteria and neither site clearly identified new

information (p. 244). There were also categories where the two sites differed. Benoit &

Benoit (2005) judged Gores Internet site as less well-designed for several important

reasons (p. 245). They found Gores campaign website to not be as well organized as

Bushs. They also found that it did not effectively use frames, had too many levels, and

was not well adapted to the medium (p. 245). Overall, however Benoit & Benoit (2005)

found vast improvements over the presidential candidate websites of the 1996 election.

Both sites were found to have a lot more in the way of interactive content, including

volunteer opportunities and allowing users to register to vote (p. 239).


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The 2000 election also feature effective online fundraising. Both Gore and Bushs

campaign websites featured online contributions (Benoit & Benoit, 2005). The success of

online donations was made possible by both a 1999 FEC ruling, which loosened

regulations on donations, and breakthroughs in secure server technologies for online

transaction (Chadwick, 2006). By the close of the primaries, McCain had raised around

six million and Al Gore, around ten million online (p. 154). Although Chadwick (2006)

goes on to point out, The main presidential contenders did raise substantial sums in

comparison with their 1996 counterparts, but these represent small portions of the overall

campaign funds (p. 154).

Along with improvements in page design, in 2000 the campaigns expanded their

web presence by including more news, background information, online photographs,

video clips, and other Web site materials (Verser & Wicks, 2006, p. 178). In comparing

visual imagery Verser and Wicks (2006) found vast differences in Gore and Bushs

campaign websites. First, they found Gores website to have significantly more photos

that were updated more frequently. Gore displayed 502 images on his website and

updated it daily, where as Bush displayed only 67 images and rarely added new images

(p. 187). Verser and Wicks (2006) also theorized that the type of photos displayed on the

pages might have been strategically motivated. In Gores case, it was found the site

showed a candidate who appeared active by interacting with ordinary citizens, dressing

casually, and appearing in places like schools, restaurants, and kitchens (p. 194) This

style of imagery might have been used by the campaign to combat the medias image of

Al Gore as being stiff and unemotional. On the other hand, the Bush site was found to

use photos, which seemed to convey a dignified leader instead of the inept or


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incompetent man the media often portrayed him to be (p. 194). This shows that in 2000,

the campaign not only learned how to effectively use images on the Internet, but they also

started to understand that the Internet could be used to usurp the mainstream media.

Although it was not understood in 2000, how strong an influence or effect the

Internet would have on voters. Hansen and Benoit (2005) examined the effects of the

Gore and Bush 2000 presidential campaign websites on the users perceptions of the

candidate and opponent. By allowing participants to peruse the websites of either Al Gore

or George W. Bush, Hansen and Benoit (2005) found that it is possible for a candidates

Web page to influence voters perception of the candidate sponsoring the website as well

as perceptions of the opponent (p. 225). Specifically, after viewing Gores website

participants were found to have a significantly less favorable opinion of Bushs issue

positions, character, leadership ability, and global feeling and a significantly more

favorable opinion of Gores character (p. 225). Hansen and Benoit (2005) also found

that influence is not guaranteed on the World Wide Web. They found no significant

effects on the perception of Bush or Gore among the participants who viewed the Bush

campaign website. Hansen and Benoit (2005) appear to contradict the findings of Benoit

and Benoit (2005), referenced above, but the earlier study did not take any of the content

in to account when evaluating the websites. The ideal web page would be both well-

designed and have persuasive content (p. 226).

Like 1992 and 1996, the 2000 election was a learning experience for the

campaigns. The websites started to be well-designed, interactive arms of the campaign

that raised funds and tried to alter the general publics image of the candidate.

Techniques from e-commerce sites such as Amazon also started to leak into campaign


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sites (Chadwick, 2006, p. 155). Al Gores site allowed users to specialize the content of

the site based around their interests. But in the end the most lasting and memorable effect

of new media in the 2000 election was not in the design or imagery, it was the presence

of vote trading (Chadwick, 2006; Howard, 2006; Klotz, 2004). The Nader Trader

phenomenon involved Nader supporters in states critical to Gores Electoral College

victory trading votes with Gore supporters in non-critical states via websites such as

nadertrader.org. This would theoretically allow Gore to win the presidency and Naders

Green Party to receive the five percent of the national popular vote required to receive

federal matching funds in future elections. The Nader Trader phenomenon symbolized

the ability of the Internet to allow individuals to connect with other like-minded

individuals and get actively involved in presidential politics. It also foreshadowed some

of the techniques used by the Dean campaign in 2004.

2004

In 2004, Governor Howard Dean and campaign manager Joe Trippi (2004)

understood the importance of the Internet in presidential elections and via

DeanForAmerica.com changed the way campaigns use the Internet. Like the campaigns

of 2000, Dean used his site to increase the users positive perception of him, but he also

used the Internet in two additional ways. Through Deans blog, Blog for America, and

other means, the Dean campaign allowed the user to feel connected to the campaign.

They also allowed users to easily get involved, by donating money, attending rallies, or

attending one of the various meet-up parties organized through the site (Howard, 2006, p.

17). Combining these three elements created revolutionary results. Dr. Dean went from

relative obscurity, as Vermonts Governor, to the front-runner for the democratic


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nomination for President and although Dean did not survive the primaries, lessons were

still learned. Both republican-nominee President George W. Bush and democratic-

nominee Senator John Kerry quickly adopted Deans Internet strategies (Chadwick,

2006). To further understand Deans web strategy the variables of connection and

involvement must be examined.

Connection

Directly connecting the candidate to the electorate has always been idealized as an

important part of the political campaign. Images of politicians shaking hands and kissing

babies have always been part of the imagery of American democracy. Although in larger

campaigns, it is more likely that the campaign is having the only direct contact with the

electorate, as opposed to the actual candidate. In an exhaustive study of the Presidential

races from 1952-1990, Wielhouwer and Lockerbie (1994) found direct party contact was

statistically significant in predicting voter turnout (p. 220), involvement in campaign

activities (p. 222), and donating money to the campaign (p. 225) in nearly all elections.

Gerber and Green (2000) also found direct contact significant in voter turnout. They

found face-to-face contact raises turnout by 9.8 percentage points (p. 660).

Unfortunately for the campaigns, as people become less and less willing to volunteer for

campaigns the ability to reach a larger portion of the electorate through direct contact

becomes less possible. Putnam (2000) found, Americans were roughly half as likely to

work for a political partyin the 1990s as in the 1970s (p. 41).

Therefore, the campaigns must find other ways to give the voters a feeling of

connection to the campaign. The nature of television limits the ability of a direct

connection. However, Horton and Wohls (1957) theory of para-social interaction could


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possibly be applied to political communication. This theory states that audience members

can start feeling a bond between themselves and television personae, which is analogous

to and in many ways resembles social interactions in ordinary primary groups (p. 228;

see also Rubin, 1981, Reeves & Nass, 1996, Giles, 2002). This could apply, but

candidates are not in complete control of their image on television. News reports and

other uncontrolled usage of the candidates image would take away from a para-social

relationship between the electorate and a candidate. A politicians website, on the other

hand, could possibly be used to allow for a new type of connection and facilitate a new

style of mediated social relationship.

Governor Howard Dean might have found that new form of political

communication. Deans campaign manager, Joe Trippi stated, This is a different type of

campaignWe really are giving more of the leadership role in the campaign over to

local, self-organized people out in their neighborhoods or on the Internet (Drinkard &

Lawrence, 2003, para. 10). Using their blog and Meetups, the Dean campaign was able to

connect through new media to a large number of people and create a community of Dean

supporters (Kerbel & Bloom, 2005; Gronbeck & Weise, 2005). By the end of the

campaign, the Dean for America website had over 540,000 members (Kerbel & Bloom,

2005, p. 7). The Dean campaign directly connected to their members through target-

marketed e-mails and other forms of computer-mediated connections.

Involvement

As Wielhouwer and Lockerbie (1994) found, direct connection in the real world is

statistically significant in predicting political involvement. The most studied and most

common form of political involvement is in voting. Downs (1957) rational voter model


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has generally been accepted as one of the established theories of political involvement

(Riker, 1990; Aldrich, 1993), although other theories have been presented (Foster, 1984;

Grafstein, 1991). A survey of these additional theories would be beyond the scope of this

research. Downs (1957) theory states that a voter will weigh the benefits of voting

against the costs and only vote if the expected benefits exceed the cost. As Riker (1990)

states, the expected benefits of voting can include maximizing personal satisfaction (p.

172). With this in mind, Putnams (2000) theory of the correlation between social capital

and civic engagement becomes an interesting way of explaining how new media can be

used to increase voter turnout. As Putnam (2000) has so aptly found social capital in

America is on the decline. He theorizes that this loss in social capital is also causing a

decrease in civic engagement. As found by the Dean campaign, social capital can be

created by the use of the web (Trippi, 2004, Kerbel & Bloom, 2005). The creation of

social capital via the web could then supply the personal satisfaction, which fulfills

Downs (1957) model.

Voting is not the only form of political involvement. There are a number of other

ways the electorate can get involved in the political process. This includes, but is not

limited to: attending a rally, working for a campaign, or donating money. Again, the

Dean for America campaign gives examples of how these acts can be affected by new

media. Dean supporters donated money directly through the Internet, via the Dean for

America website. The Internet contributions pushed dark horse candidate Dean to the

front of the Democratic fundraising pack for the [second] quarter (Gownder, 2003, para.

1). His supporters also got involved by attending events, such as rallies and meet-ups,

arranged through the website. Visitors to the Dean home page easily could find election


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events by city, state or zip (Gronbeck & Wiese, 2005, p. 524). Although there are no

data on what percentage of registered users ended up attending a meet-up, the Dean

campaign did have over 170,000 people registered to attend meet-ups (Trippi, 2004, p.

86). The Dean campaign also allowed users to get involved through new means, such as

posting a comment on their blog or uploading pictures from campaign events to the

website (Trippi, 2004, Kerbel & Bloom, 2005).

The Lasting Effect of Dean for America

Deans Internet strategy was extremely successful and became the norm in the

2004 election. By the primary voting season, the other main contenders, John Kerry and

John Edwards, had borrowed many features from Trippis Internet strategy (Chadwick,

2006, p. 166). This included blogs on their websites and usage of Meet-ups. During the

primary season, President Bush also raised his Internet profile by shuffling staff and

adding a number of innovations, such as targeted e-mailings and Meet-up-styled

organizational tools. By July, Bush supporters had held over 1,700 such meet-up parties

(Bush-Cheny, 2004 as cited in Chadwich, 2006, p. 166). Although, overall Chadwick

(2006) found the Bush website to be less interactive than the other campaign websites. It

contained no discussion board and the blog did not allow for interactivity (p. 166).

As mentioned above, both 2004 Presidential nominees websites featured blogs as

a form of political communication. The 2004 campaign represent the first time blogs had

been used in presidential campaigns (Williams et al., 2005), therefore how the campaigns

used them must be researched. In examining the blogs of President Bush and Senator

Kerry, Williams et al. (2005) found that the content of the blogs did not correlate with the

issues the candidates addressed on their web pages (p. 185). This led the researchers to


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question if blogs act as a softer, more personalized style of campaigning. Although,

Bichard (2006) found, Topics featured in the blogs text most often focused on attacking

the opponent (p. 340). Blogs could also be seen as a style of insider talk with messages

being aimed at the core supporters.

Online fundraising on the Kerry and Bush websites was also jumpstarted by the

success of the Dean campaign. By the Democratic convention, Kerry had raised around

$185 millions dollars with about a third of that, or $82 million, coming from online

donations (Chadwick, 2006). Bushs website also brought in about $9 million in

donations. Internet contributions will continue to be a large part of the campaign due to

the relatively low cost. Only around 3% of Internet donations is lost in administrative

costs (Chadwick, 206, p. 167).

The 2004 campaign has left lasting effects on political communication that will be

seen in the 2008 election, including the use of blogs, Meet-ups, and online donations.

Overarching these technologies is the shift in communication style that came out of the

2004 election. Website are going to be expected to not only allow the user to learn about

the candidate, but also allow the user to connect to the campaign and other supporters,

and get directly involved in the campaign.

Conclusion

The last four presidential elections have all served as learning experiences on

different aspects of new media technologies. In 1992, the campaigns learned the

importance and started to understand the possibilities of the emerging technologies. The

1996 election allowed the campaigns to learn how the Web can be used to disseminate

unfiltered information to the electorate. The 2000 campaign saw the first well-designed


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websites sites and saw some experimentation in interactivity and community building. In

2004, those experiments became reality as campaigns learned that the Internet could be

used to increase a users connection and involvement to the campaign.

Research Question

Through reviewing the literature on Internet usage by presidential candidates in

previous campaigns the following research questions were formulated:

RQ1: To what extent will a candidates website affect their political strategy in

the early stages of the 2008 presidential election?

RQ2: To what extent will candidates in the 2008 presidential election use their

website to enhance a form of mediated direct connections?

RQ3: To what extent will candidates in the 2008 presidential election use their

website to increase users involvement in the campaign?

RQ4: To what extent will candidates website affect the outcome of the 2008

presidential campaign?


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Chapter III: Methods

Presidential elections are large, complex processes, which involve various media,

numerous candidates, and the voting American public. Because of this, an eclectic

approach to answer the research questions posed in the last chapter is used. The eclectic

approach used in this research contains the insights from a combination of the following

methods: content analysis, analog criticism, media criticism and scenario analysis.

An eclectic approach to answering the above research questions allows for

adaptations based on the countless number of outside influences present during a

presidential election. Conclusions are then drawn about the effects of a candidates

website on their campaign. As Brock et al. (1989) stated an eclectic approach stresses

the critics ability to assemble and absorb ways of working, subordinating these to the

task at hand (p. 91). In this research, it allows conclusions to be drawn from not only the

candidates current websites design, but also, for example, how the public perceives the

candidate and how a candidates new media use in the 2008 election might play out. This

research uses established methods, such as content analysis, but it uses them in a more

open-ended way. As Brock et al. (1989) describe, When the eclectic critic does use a

method, it is an open-ended one that does not force or prescribe a specific and provides

the critic with a great deal of creative decision making (p. 91). A broad understanding of

how the four methods in this research, content analysis, analog criticism, media criticism,

and scenario analysis, were used to address the research questions must be reached. This

is examined throughout the rest of this chapter.

Content Analysis


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This research relies heavily on the use of content analysis to examine how the

candidates for the 2008 presidential election are currently using their websites.

Krippendorff (2004) defines content analysis as a research technique for making

replicable and valid inferences from texts (or other meaningful matter) to the contexts of

their use (p. 18). Krippendorff (2004) goes on to state:

As a technique, content analysis involves specialized procedures. It is learnable

and divorceable from the personal authority of the researcher. As a research

technique, content analysis provides new insights, increases a researchers

understanding of particular phenomena, or informs practical actions. Content

analysis is a scientific tool (p. 18).

Hansen et al. (1998) further this definition by stating:

The purpose of the method is to identify and count occurrences of specified

characteristics or dimensions of texts, and through this, to be able to say

something about the messages, images, representations of such texts and their

wider social significance (p. 95).

Content analysis in this research is used to examine the current presidential

campaign websites of Senator Hillary Clinton and Senator Barack Obama. These two

candidates were chosen, because they represent the front-runners in the race for the

democratic nominee for President (Washington Post, 2007). Because they are from the

same party some of the outside variables of the candidates stance of the issues are

alleviated. Although, there are also a number of instances were the candidates do not

agree on issues. They also have different backgrounds and different perceived strengths


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and weaknesses. This allows the content analyses of their websites to be rich with

differences, but also to have some outside variables controlled.

As Krippendorff (2004) stated, Content analysis is a scientific tool (p. 18),

therefore a scientific measure must be devised. This measure must specifically address

how the two candidates are using their websites. With this in mind, this research uses

Benoit and Benoits (2005) criteria for evaluating political campaign websites as it basis

for content analysis. To enrich this research, the Benoit and Benoit criteria are used as

merely a starting point. Foggs (2003) research on web credibility is also included in the

content analysis.

Fogg (2003) presents an 18-point criterion for examining the perceived credibility

of websites (p. 173). It is Foggs contention that credibility is a key factor in a Web

sites ability to persuade (p. 147). He goes on to say, without credibility, sites are not

likely to persuade users to change their attitudes or behaviors (p. 148). Foggs criterion

is broken down into three main categories. They are: operator, content, and design. The

first category, operator, looks at the organization or person offering the site (p. 173).

The content category is broken in to two sub-groups, which look at what type of

information is presented and the functionality of that information (p. 173). Lastly, the

design category is broken up into four sub-catergories, which look at the information

design, the technical design, the aesthetic design, and the interaction design (p. 174). As

with the Benoit and Benoit (2005) criterion, the Fogg criterion can be seen as very useful

for judging the credibility of websites.

Another addition to the Benoit and Benoit (2005) criteria is an enrichment of their

interactivity section. Great strides have been taken in interactivity in the last election and


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even more innovations will be seen in this election, therefore it is imperative that these

features be accurately addressed by the measure used. To the interactivity category, this

research adds three criteria. These are examinations for the presence of a campaign blog,

Meet-up style social organization tools, and online social networking tools. A measure

for proper use of video was also added. This was added to the interest level category.

Lastly, the issues categories in the Benoit and Benoit (2005) criteria were updated to

represent the top ten issues currently facing Americans (The Gallup Poll, 2007). The full

75-point criteria, which is used in this research, can be found in Appendix A. The

knowledge gained from this style of content analysis was analyzed in combination with

the insights gained from using analog criticism.

Analog Criticism

Analog criticism, as a method, is used to allow this research to compare the

content of the websites of two seemingly different candidates. Rosenfields (1968)

volume comparing the televised apologetic speeches of Presidents Richard Nixon and

Harry Truman acts as an example of how analog criticism can be used in research.

Rosenfield (1968) states:

The generic resemblance of the two speeches (both may be classified as mass-

media apologia) invites what may be called analog criticism comparing the

speeches in such ways that each address serves as a reference standard for the

other (p. 435).

In this study, as opposed to Rosenfields, the artifact is not a speech classified as mass

media apologia, but the presidential campaign websites of two democratic candidates for

the Presidency.


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Using analog criticism presents a number of benefits. As Rosenfield (1968) goes

on to explain, The objective of such a method of comparison and contrast is two-fold: to

specify the fundamental anatomical features which relate the two speeches...and to assess

the relative artistic merit of each speech compared to the other (p. 435). In this research,

analog criticism allows for the recognition of a number of similarities in the

communication style of the two websites. Rosenfield (1968) states, the identification of

similar qualities in the two messages suggests to the critic certain constants operating in

an otherwise undefined form (p. 435). Identifying these similarities also draws attention

to the unique aspects of each website. The differences noticed act as evidence of the

individual speakers artistry in responding to the exigencies of the situation (p. 435).

Using analog criticism to examine the candidates websites deepen the finding presented

in this research.

Media Criticism

Aspects of media criticism are also used in this research to examine and answer

the research questions stated in the previous chapter. Media criticism as a method covers

a wide range of specificity. As Chesebro and Bertelsen (1996) state:

A statement of preference for one style or presentational mode rather than another

(e.g., I liked the book better than the movie) may provide the foundation for a

critical view of a media system, or media criticism may include a far more

sophisticated and complex description, interpretation, and evaluation of a

communication system (p. 38).

Media criticism allows for a more generalized evaluation and assessment of the

presidential campaign websites. Because media criticism allows for a more informal


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examination wider ranges of the presidential candidate websites were examined via this

method. A list of all of the current presidential candidates and their websites is included

as Appendix B.

Because of its nature, media criticism also allows for comparison between the

communication styles used by candidates on their websites and in other medium. This

style of comparison is beneficial in addressing how websites are used and how they are

affecting the early stages of a presidential campaign.

The three methods, which have been addressed so far, content analysis, analog

criticism, and media criticism, are all used to address RQ1, RQ2, and RQ3. The findings

from those methods also act as the basis for the fourth method, scenario analysis, which

is used to address RQ4.

Scenario Analysis

Scenario analysis, or forecasting, is a predictive method, which allows for the

extrapolation of current knowledge and findings to present and address possible future

outcomes. To understand how this method is used in this research a common

understanding of the method must be reached. Martino (1972) states, A technological

forecast is a prediction of the future characteristic of useful machines, procedures or

techniques (p. 2). Martino (1972) identifies four elements of a forecast. These are: the

time period, the nature of the technology, the characteristics to be exhibited by the

technology, and the probability associated with the characteristics (p. 3). He goes on to

state that each of these four variables may be defined in the specific forecast in anything

from very specific to very broad terms. Although, Martinos definition provides insights


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in to the area of scenario forecasting, it is Sage and Chobot (1974) concept, which is used

in this research.

Scenario forecasting at its most basic is a defined idea about future events. Sage

and Chobot (1974) state, A forecast is simply a carefully formed, time-based opinion

about the future (p. 162). They identify two forms of forecasting: exploratory and

normative. Exploratory is described:

as starting from todays assured basis of knowledge, and oriented toward the

multiple opportunities that the future may hold. Normative forecasting, on the

other hand, begins with the definition of a particular future goal moment, and, by

working backward to the present, describes an optimal path from current reality to

the specified target (Sage & Chobot, 1974, p. 162).

This research relies on exploratory forecasting as its method for examining and

answering RQ 4.

The assured basis of knowledge, which is used comes from a number of

sources. First, the conclusion drawn from using content analysis, analog criticism, and

media criticism on the 2008 presidential candidates websites act as a strong influence on

the scenario. Second, the knowledge derived from the examinations of the previous

scholarship in the field of new media usage in presidential campaigning act as a guide.

Lastly, current innovations in new media technologies and their usage by the general

public are presented and help form the scenario.

Conclusion

This research employs an eclectic approach to answering the four stated research

questions. This type of approach allows for the use of a combination of four distinct


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methods. These are: content analysis, analog criticism, media criticism, and scenario

analysis. Content analysis is used to scientifically examine the features and functionality

of the websites of Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Analog criticism allows

for the recognition of a number of similarities and differences in the communication style

of the two very different candidates. Media criticism allows for a more generalized

evaluation and assessment of the websites of a broader range of candidates. Finally,

scenario analysis is used to address the future implications of new media usage in

presidential campaigning. These methods combined using an eclectic approach serve to

answer the four stated research questions.


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Chapter IV: Findings

The 2008 presidential election will be historic in a number of ways. One primary

way will be how the campaigns use new media technologies to not only get their message

out to the electorate, but also to increase feelings of connection to the campaign and

desire to get involved in the campaign. An Internet first happened this year when a

number of major politicians announced their candidacy for President or the formation of

their presidential exploratory committee on the Internet. Senators Obama and Clinton

both used their websites to announce the creation of presidential exploratory committees.

They did this via three to five minute video clips displayed on the front pages of their

respective websites. Both also, upon their announcement of candidacy, had fully

functioning, highly interactive websites. These moves by two of the major democratic

candidates signify the importance the Internet is going to have in the 2008 election

season. It also further proves that examination into Internet usage by presidential

candidates during the early stages of a campaign is imperative.

This chapter will present the relevant findings to answer the four research

questions presented in chapter 2. This research begins by examining the findings from a

content analysis on the websites of Senator Hillary Clinton,HillaryClinton.com, and

Senator Barack Obama,BarackObama.com. It then further examines those websites by

looking at the knowledge derived from using analog criticism. Trends that emerge by

analyzing the websites of the larger presidential field via media criticism will then be

presented. Finally, a scenario will be presented, which uses all the previous findings, to

understand the further implications of current new media usage by presidential candidates

in the 2008 election. Through these findings the research questions will be adequately


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addressed. It is important to note that the analyses presented in this volume only apply to

the early stages of the 2008 presidential campaign and the finding presented here

represent data collected from the presidential campaign websites in the time period

between their inception and March 10, 2007.

Content Analysis

Using a 75-point criterion the presidential campaign websites of Senators Hillary

Clinton and Barack Obama were examined. The criterion is primarily based off Benoit

and Benoits (2005) criteria for evaluating political web pages. Their criterion was then

enriched by adding theories presented by Fogg (2003). Also added to the original

criterion were criteria to measure for the proper use of video and the presence of

campaign blogs, meet-up style organizational tools, and online social networking

functions. The issues section was also updated to reflect issues currently relevant to the

American people. The websites of the two candidates were tracked closely since their

inception, but were specifically examined using the described criterion on March 8, 2007

from between approximately 1:00 P.M. and 3:00 P.M. The findings will be presented in

the following order: advantages of Clintons website, advantages of Obamas website,

and finally areas where both of the websites showed deficiencies. The full results are

available in Appendix C.

Clinton Advantages

Senator Hillary Clintons website,HillaryClinton.com, did show some advantages

over its competition. In total, there were five criteria, which the Clinton website fulfilled

and the Obama website did not. As can be seen in table 5, two of the advantages the

Clinton website had, clear page titles and text lines of 8-12 words, can be seen as minor


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advantages. These categories do help with the readability and organization, but are not

seen as major categories. There were also three major criteria where Clinton held an

advantage. The Clinton website allowed for an alternative language choice, Spanish, and

offered a few interactive features, e-postcards and ordering campaign materials, which

Obamas site did not include. The advantages of Clintons website were overshadowed

by the advantages of Obamas website.

Table 5: Advantages of Clintons Website

Criteria Clinton Obama

4 Page titles clear for bookmarks Yes No

15 Text line length of 8-12 words Yes No

60 The various languages of the target audience Yes No

70 E-postcard Yes No

71 Order campaign materials Yes No

Obama Advantages

By using the criteria for evaluating political websites twelve areas were found in

which the Obama campaign more effectively used their website. As can be seen in table 6

all twelve criteria can be considered major areas where Obama holds an advantage. The

advantages of Obamas site can be broken down in to three areas: covering supporters,

covering issues, and interactivity.BarackObama.com covered their supporters in three

different ways. They showed images of supporters at campaign events, displayed news

stories and polls that supported the candidate, and mentioned relevant endorsements. In

the issues coverage Obama provided statements on six of the issues that served as criteria


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in the evaluation and also provided a concise mission statement on the main page of the

issues section. Lastly, in the interactivity category Obama provided the users with the

ability to register to vote and allowed users to sign up forMy.BarackObama.com, an

online social networking tool. By using the criteria for evaluating political websites, this

research has found Obamas campaign to have a more effective, better designed website.

Although, there were a number of areas found where both the campaigns websites could

improve.

Table 6: Advantages of Obamas Website

Criteria Clinton Obama

6 Site shows pictures of organization members No Yes

40 Philosophy/mission/vision statement No Yes

42 Support No Yes

46 Iraq No Yes

47 Terrorism/national security No Yes

49 Energy No Yes

51 Health care No Yes

52 Education No Yes

54 Fixing government itself No Yes

58 Endorsements No Yes

69 Register to vote No Yes

75 Online social networking functions No Yes


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Deficiencies Found in Both Websites

Overall, there were sixteen criteria in which both websites were found to be

deficient, seen in table 7. A number of these can be seen as minor problems. For example,

neither of the sites had links that changed color after use. But there were also a number of

major deficiencies found in both sites. NeitherHillaryClinton.com nor

BarackObama.com actively enticed their audience to return to the website, unless the

user became fully involved with the interactive functions of the sites. This could have

improved if either of the sites identified new information or easily let the user know when

information was revised. There were also four issues, which were not addressed by either

campaign. These were: the economy, i

Geidner Final Version of Thesis April 2007

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