GDP Presentation with Business Forward
11
Highlights from the Q3 GDP Report Karen Dynan Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy and Chief Economist U.S. Department of the Treasury Bill Hampel Chief Economist and Chief Policy Officer Credit Union National Association (CUNA) October 29, 2015
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Transcript of GDP Presentation with Business Forward
Highlights from the Q3 GDP Report
Karen DynanAssistant Secretary for Economic Policy and
Chief Economist U.S. Department of the Treasury
Bill HampelChief Economist and Chief Policy Officer
Credit Union National Association (CUNA)
October 29, 2015
The U.S. economy grew 1.5 percent in 2015Q3
3.02.4
1.9
-2.8
-0.2
2.7
1.71.3
2.51.8
2.3
0.6
3.9
1.5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3
Real Gross DomesticProduct (GDP)
Note. Annual values are four-quarter percent changes. Semi-annual and quarterly values areannual rates.
Percent Change
Growth was held down by slower inventory accumulation
Q2 Q3
Real GDP Percent change at an annual rate 3.9 1.5
Contribution to Change in Real GDP (percentage points) Personal consumption expenditures 2.4 2.2 Business fixed investment 0.5 0.3 Structures 0.2 -0.1 Equipment 0.0 0.3 Intellectual property products 0.3 0.1 Residential investment 0.3 0.2 Change in private inventories 0.0 -1.4 Government 0.5 0.3 Net exports 0.2 0.0
GDP Growth Profile
Growth of private domestic final demand remained strong
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GDP
Final Sales to Private DomesticPurchasers
Real GDPand Real Final Sales to Domestic PurchasersFour Quarter Percent Change
Good fundamentals are supporting consumer spending
3.0 3.3
1.4
-2.0
-0.2
3.1
1.5 1.3
2.32.6
3.9
1.8
3.63.2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 Q2 Q3
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
H1 H2
Note. Annual values are four-quarter percent changes. Semi-annual and quarterly valuesare annual rates.
Percent Change
Housing activity has stepped up this year
5.2
-15.3
-21.3-24.3
-10.8
-5.2
6.0
15.6
3.5 3.66.6
10.19.36.1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3
Real Residential Investment
Note. Annual values are four-quarter percent changes. Semi-annual and quarterly valuesare annual rates.
Percent Change
Business investment slowed in Q3
5.06.9 7.1
-8.9
-12.2
8.1 9.0
5.2 4.26.3
4.8
1.64.1
2.1
H1 H2
Real BusinessFixed Investment
Q1 Q2 Q32005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Note. Annual values are four-quarter percent changes. Semi-annual and quarterly valuesare annual rates.
Percent Change
Weak export demand is weighing on growth
-0.3-0.1
0.6
1.1 1.2
-0.5-0.02
0.08 0.2
-0.8
-0.3
-1.9
0.2
0.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Net ExportsContribution to Real GDP Growth, Percentage Points
H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3
Interest Rates1988 to Present
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 150
2
4
6
8
10
12
Fed Funds10-yr Treas
