GBF2014 - Glenn McGillivray - Cities in the Crosshairs
43
Cities in the crosshairs The trend to more and larger catastrophic losses in Canada Glenn McGillivray Managing Director Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction October 2, 2014
-
Upload
sustainable-buildings-canada -
Category
Environment
-
view
119 -
download
0
description
Opening Session of the 2014 Green Building Festival - ResilienCity: the new urban paradigm
Transcript of GBF2014 - Glenn McGillivray - Cities in the Crosshairs
Cities in the crosshairsThe trend to more and larger catastrophic losses in Canada
Glenn McGillivrayManaging Director
Institute for Catastrophic Loss ReductionOctober 2, 2014
Number of cat. events 1970-2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Swiss Re, sigma
Insured losses 1970-2014(1H)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Swiss Re, sigma
USD billion at 2005 pricesUSD billion at 2005 prices
Insured losses by peril
CLIMATE RELATED
EARTHQUAKES VOLCANOES
GEOPHYSICALEarthquake, volcanic eruption
METEOROLOGICALSevere weather, winter & tropical storms, hail, tornado
HYDROLOGICALRiver & flash flood, storm surge, landslide
CLIMATOLOGICALHeatwave, freeze, wildland fire, drought
TREND
Global disaster damage
Annual insurance disaster claims, billions, adjusted for inflation
20 fold increase since 1970s!
Canadian disaster damage
Number of events
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Meteorological - Hydrological Geological
0 100 200 300
other
winter storm
tornado/hurricane
wildfire
thunderstorm
flood
Canadian disaster data base, number of events in Canada, 1950-2011
Canadian catastrophes
Canadian cats 2009
Winter storms in eastern Canada (Feb. 2)
$25 million
Hamilton rain (July 26)
$100- to $150 million
Alberta wind etc. (August 2-3)
$500 million
Mont Laurier tornado (August 4)
$6 million
Manitoba hail etc. (August 13-15)
$50- to $75 million
Ontario tornadoes (August 20)
$50- to $100 million
Tropical storms Bill & Danny (August 23 & 29)
$10 & 25 million
Source: Aon Benfield (Canada)
Canadian cats 2010
Saskatchewan storms (Spring)
Leamington & Harrow tornadoes (June 6)
Midland tornado (June 23)
Calgary hailstorm (July 12)
>$400 million
Hurricane Igor (September 21)
Canadian cats 2011
Storms in Ontario & Quebec (March)
Storms in Ontario & Quebec (April)
Wildfire in Slave Lake, Alberta (May 15)
$700 million
Flooding in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec (Spring)
Hail, tornadoes and wind in Alberta, Man. & Sask. (July
18/19)
Tornado in Goderich (August 21)
Hurricane Irene (August 28 to 30)
Alberta windstorm (November 27)
Canadian cats 2012
Flooding and wind in Ontario and Quebec (May 26 to 29)
Flooding, wind and hail in Alberta (July 12)
Flooding, wind and hail in Ontario (July 23)
Hail and wind in Alberta (July 26)
Flooding, wind and hail in Alberta (August 12)
Canadian cats 2013
Two small events early in the year
Southern Alberta flood (June 19-21)
$1.7 billion (preliminary)
GTA flood (July 8-9)
>$850 million (preliminary)
Ontario/Quebec storm (July 19)
2013 high water marks
Canada’s costliest and third costliest insured
loss events within two weeks of each other
Ice storm now the second costliest – took 15
years!
Two billion dollar natural catastrophes in
one year – a first!
Second place event (Slave Lake) fell not
one, but two notches to fourth place
5th consecutive year of billion-dollar events
High River, Alberta, Canada
© 2013 Reuters
June 23, 2013
© 2013 Reuters/Andy Clark
© 2013 AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Jonathan Hayward
Calgary, Alberta, Canada
© 2013 AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Jonathan Hayward
>$1.7 billion insured damage
Toronto, Ontario
© 2013 AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Winston Neutel
© 2013 AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Frank Gunn
© 2013 Reuters/Mark Blinch
© 2013 Reuters/Mark Blinch
>$850 million insured damage
Toronto, Ontario
$225 million insured damage
Burlington, Ontario
August 4, 2014
© 2013 Reuters/Mark Blinch
$200 million insured damage
Billion-dollar years
1998 – due solely to the ice storm
2005 – due greatly to the August 19 GTA rainstorm
2009 – due greatly to back-to-back windstorms in Alberta
2010 – due greatly to large hailstorm in Alberta
2011 – due greatly to Slave Lake wildfire
2012 – due greatly to one large and two smaller hailstorms
in Alberta
2013 – due to the Southern Alberta flood and GTA flood
First time ever for two billion-dollar events
2014 - $600- to $700 million so far
Why are losses rising?
More people and property at risk
Aging infrastructure
The climate is changing
New normal
“The Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) reports that large
insured losses from extreme weather
appear to be ‘the new normal’ for the
Canadian insurance industry, expecting
that large-loss years will no longer be
rarities.”
Canadian Underwriter (November 6, 2012)
New normal
Increasing liability concerns
Corporate/professional
Directors and officers
Errors and omissions
Public
Municipal
What can be done?
Loss prevention
Risk transfer
Loss prevention
Structural measures
Non-structural measures
Public awareness
Structural measures
Structural measures - hard
Structural measures - hard
Structural measures - hard
Structural measures - hard
Structural measures - hard
Structural measures - hard
Structural measures - soft
Structural measures - soft
Risk transfer
Private (re)insurance sector
Public sector
Public/private partnerships
Capital markets
Massive gap between total and insured losses shows insurance
potential Natural and man-made catastrophe losses 1980-2012, in USD billion (2012 prices)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Insured losses Uninsured losses
Risk transfer
Insurance considerations
Rising cost
Homeowners
Businesses
Governments
Availability
Restrictions
Sewer backup
Commercial flood insurance in Alberta
When the feds say we have a problem…
”The rising cost of natural disasters and
the financial burden on Ottawa is the
country’s biggest public safety risk”…
Public Safety Canada, 2013/14, Report on Plans and Priorities
