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Gauging Wildland Fire Potential

Amarillo National Weather Service Decision Support Symposium

December 6th 2012

Brad SmithWildland Fire Analyst

Significant Fire Potential (SFP)Significant fire potential is an attempt to describe the probability that a significant fire will occur within a given area. Significant fires by definition are those fires that require more than local resources to contain.

The National Predictive Service Group (NPSG) issues a monthly and seasonal significant fire potential outlook that describes below normal, normal, and above normal Significant Fire potential.

The TFS will use SFP at the local and regional level to help increase situational awareness for firefighters and fire managers. SFP can be used as a decision tool to determine tactics on initial attack or to manage resource staffing within a district or region.

National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS)NFDRS is widely used by firefighters and fire managers to describe fuel conditions and a wildland fire’s resistance to control over a large area.

Weather observations collected from remote automated weather stations (RAWS) are used to calculate NFDRS indices like Fire Danger, ERC, BI, and dead fuel moisture.

RAWS observations collected at 1300 are input into the NFDRS processor. The National Weather Service uses RAWS observations to produce a NFDRS forecast for each RAWS.

Both Observed and Forecast NFDRS products are available on the TFS Predictive Services Preparedness page by 0600 each morning.

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http://ticc.tamu.edu/PredictiveServices/Preparedness.htm

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SFP=Fuel Conditions + Daily Weather

Fuel Conditions• Dead Fuel Moistures• Live Fuel Moisture• Fine Fuel Loading• Energy Release Component• Fuel Dryness• Drought• Standard Precipitation Index• Accelerated Drying

Daily Weather• Temperature• Dewpoint• Relative Humidity• Windspeed• Overnight RH Recovery• Burning Index• Fire Danger Rating• Upper Air Dynamics• Trends• RFTI

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September 4th 2011 SFP

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Basic SFP Decision Matrix

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12/3/2012 Significant Fire Potential(Generated: 12/2/2012 8:00:13 PM)

ERC 69 BI 94

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SFP Ratings for Past Fires

Masterson Fire 6/19/2011 Moore 5000 ac ERC 91 BI 133

Barrel Fire 8/19/2011 Briscoe 1500 ac ERC 82 BI 75