Gastech 2014
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Transcript of Gastech 2014
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“Role of Gas and LNG in Asian Economic Prosperity ”
B C TripathiGAIL (India) Limited23 March 2014
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Presentation Outline
•Asia’s Energy Outlook
•Gas and LNG in Asia
• India’s Gas Scenario
•A Way Forward for Asia
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Comparative Per Capita Consumption
IEA, UNESCAP
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High Import Dependence in Asia
IEA, UNESCAP
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Energy Challenges Facing Asia
IEA, UNESCAP
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Gas and LNG in Asia
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Gas as Primary Energy in Asia, Mtoe
2012
2035
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Key Asian Importers Rely on LNG
Supply of Gas for Key Asian Importers(in BCM, 2011)
Source: BP Statistical Review 2013, Booz & Company
Asia Pacific was the largest global LNG importer (69% share)
Japan & South Korea have 74% share in total Asia Pacific imports and 51% share in global LNG imports
Unlike Europe (~87% imports through piped gas), limited piped gas import infrastructure reverses the situation in Asia Pacific where 80% of imports are through LNG
21%
137
103
225
119
50
20
2134
2121
ChinaSouth Korea
16
India
144
Japan
55
TaiwanTotal Supply
384
Supplied Primarilythrough LNG Imports
LNG imports
Domestic productionPipeline imports
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Demand for LNG almost doubling over the next decade.
Asian LNG Demand Remains Robust
Source: WoodMackenzie
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Limited Pipeline Connectivity
CAG Pipeline23 mtpa, 2011
, 1998
, 2013
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Comparison of Regional Prices$ per MMBtu, 2000-2012
Platts JKM Marker versus NBP$ per MMBtu, 2010- Mar’2013
LT Price Premium
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ /MMBTU
-3+14.0
BrentUS Henry HubUK NBPJapan (cif)
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
1 Jan 20141 Jan 20131 Jan 20121 Jan 2010 1 Jan 2011
+8
+2
NBP
JKM
Spot Market Premium
Note JKM and NBP values have been adjusted for shipping cost differencesSource: Platts, BP Statistical Review 2013, Booz & Company analysis
Price Premium for LNG to Asia
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India’s Gas Outlook
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Power And Fertilizer - Anchor MarketsIndustrial And City Gas - Growing Markets
Sector wise Gas Consumption
44 BCM (H1 2013-14)
36%
25%
12%
18%
9%
% Share of Consumption
Fertilizer
Power
CGD
LPG, Refineries,Petrochem & SteelOthers
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Demand Outstrips Supply
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Pricing Key to Unlock Demand
0 15 29 44 58 73 88 102 117 131 146 161BCM
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What is the Way Forward for Asia?
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Develop Regional Market Synergies
• Integrated Energy Market can multiply gains • Create Pan-Asia Energy Market by 2030
• Promote a regional Asian Cooperation Forum for dialogue and consensus
Develop regional pipeline interconnections: Asian Gas GridNeed to evolve an Asian Gas Price Hub/Index Collaborate to reduce Asian LNG Premium
LNG prices in the region to reflect current realities Price setting in a competitive and transparent manner
Collaborate to design innovative pricing methodologies• HH/Mixed Indices instead of Oil• Need for S curves
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Swapping of LNG volumes to reduce and optimize shipping costs
Joint acquisition of assets in energy rich countries
Joint investment in infrastructure Import terminals, liquefaction terminals, FSRUs etc.
Technology and Gas Innovation Partnerships
Knowledge sharing in areas related to CBM, Shale Gas, UCG, gas exploration, pipelines, Energy efficiency, Clean Coal etc.
Partnerships are Key to Solve Asia’s Challenges
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Thank You