Gaseous Emissions from Irish Agriculture

Trevor Donnellan

FAPRI-Ireland PartnershipTeagascDublin

OutlineOutline

Background

Methodology

Analysis to date

(European model)

BackgroundBackground

FAPRI-Ireland Partnersip founded in 1997 Partners

– Teagasc (Irish Agriculture & Food Development Authority)

– Food and Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) (Missouri, USA)

– National Universities of Ireland

– Partner project in Northern Ireland

Key Aim– To project future levels of agricultural income

– Under various policy scenarios

• Macroeconomic conditions (exogenous)

• Policy conditions (exogenous)

• Market conditions (exogenous and endogenous)

• Events in other agriculture sectors (endogenous)

Activity data projectionsActivity data projections

FAPRI-Ireland PartnershipFAPRI-Ireland Partnership

FAPRIWorld Model

FAPRIEU Model

Ireland Model

FAPRI-Ireland modelFAPRI-Ireland model

Multi-product modelling system

Supply and demand inter-relationships

Econometric and synthetic equations

Partial equilibrium, dynamic model

Projections of activity levels– Animal numbers, land use, input use

Allows projection of gaseous emissions

Cereals

Inputs

Poultry

PigsSheep

Beef

Dairy

Milk Output Values

Beef Output Values

Sheep Output Values

Poultry Output Values

Pig Output Values

Poultry Meal Prices

Poultry NumbersPoultry PricesDairy Cow

Numbers

Dairy Meal Price Cereal Prices, Production, Value &

Hectares

Cattle Feed Price

Cattle Numbers

Cattle FeedPrice

Pig Numbers

Pig Meal Price

Beef Cow Numbers

Dairy Cow Numbers

Dai

ry C

ow

Num

ber

sCommodity Model Inter LinkagesCommodity Model Inter Linkages

FAPRI-Ireland modelFAPRI-Ireland model

Historical data collection

Equation specification (Y = + 1X1 + 2X2 )

Equations estimation

Models assembling in spreadsheets

Model solving

Expert review

Total Milk Production

Liquid Milk

Butter

Cream

Cheese

WMP

Choc. Crumb

Manufacturing Milk Price

Liquid Milk Price

Domestic Sales

Intervention

Domestic Sales

Exports

Milk Output

Milk Output per Cow No. Dairy Cows

Milk Fed to Livestock

On FarmHuman Use

SMP

Casein

Manufacturing Milk

Misc . Prods.

Liquid Consumption

Milk Delivered

Dairy model

Calculation of GHG Calculation of GHG EmissionsEmissions

Livestock Numbers

Input Application

Enterprise Area

Conversion Coefficients

Methane Emissions

Nitrous Oxide

Emissions

Conversion Coefficients

GHGs in Carbon Dioxide Equivalent

Calculation of Ammonia Calculation of Ammonia EmissionsEmissions

Livestock Production

Manure

Conversion Coefficients

Manure Storage Practices

Crop Production

Fertiliser Application

Inorganic Fertiliser

Ammonia Release

Pure Ammonia

ProjectionsProjections

•Baseline Current policy remains in place

Current international agreements in place

No new policy

•Scenario Alternative policy

Method of differences

Results to dateResults to date

Emissions work to date

Baseline projections 2002 & 2003

Scenarios– MTR Proposals

– Luxembourg MTR Agreement including various beef decoupling options

Sample OutputSample Output

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dairy cows tonne NH3 32,566 32,160 31,767 31,388 31,072 30,753

Cattle 0-1 tonne NH3 5,080 4,980 4,909 4,845 4,788 4,742

Cattle 1-2 tonne NH3 11,216 10,994 10,837 10,696 10,571 10,469

Other cattle tonne NH3 23,931 23,373 23,033 22,735 22,476 22,240

Total cattle tonne NH3 72,793 71,507 70,546 69,665 68,907 68,205

Similar projections are produced for other livestock and crops

Sample Output

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

1990 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

000 t

on

nes N

H3

Baseline Scenario

ConclusionsConclusions

Emissions decline under Baseline policy

But…..

Ag. Policy reform further reduces Ag. activity

Livestock numbers, input use– Reductions are greater than in Baseline

Overall emissions under policy reform (MTR) are lower than under Baseline (Agenda 2000)

Thank You

www.tnet.teagasc.ie/fapri

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