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India Against Corruption- a garbage can situation?

India Against Corruption is a people's movement which started in the spring of 2011- with a hungerstrike by a ! year old activist- Anna "a#are$ demanding a strong %mbudsman bill& he subse(uent

events have been compared to ehrir )(uare and ensuing Arab spring& his paper applies %rgani*ed

anarchymodel of decision making to these developments$ which continue to unfold towards an

apparent deadline in 201!+ general elections in India$ to which most actors in this unrest$ look to$

with big hopes&

"ere are the main events and actors-he main actors can be divided in the following loose groups+

1& Actors from Civil society+ Anna "a*are and his team& In 2012$ this group split+ ,e#riwal and hisgroup opting for political route to fight corruption Anna group continues to act as a vigilante civicgroup- keepers of the conscience of this country and ./ year old democracy&

2& Political actors+ any corrupt politicians and their cohorts some within arliament$ fifteen ofwhom have been accused of stalling the %mbudsman bill for very obvious reasons& If the bill gets

passed$ they will be behind the bars1

he two ma#or political parties 3Congress and 456$ who aresupposed to oppose each other on issues of policy and governance$ but often collaborate 3log roll6behind the scenes when it comes to corrupt land deals and mutual gratification& 4oth the parties

have tried to dilute the %mbudsman bill&7& Mediais an important actor as it shapes nation's perception through popular debates and stingoperations& About a decade ago$ corruption was 8% a ma#or issue for the Indian polity& 8o

political party talked about giving transparent clean governance in its election manifesto& )tartingwith ehelka e9pose$ many sting operations have been conducted by media$ targeting corruption in

:high places;& A recent reverse sting operation by a Congress politician r 5indal has raised(uestions about ob#ectivity of media too&

!& Parliamentis the highest legislative body$ e9pected to make laws in respect of wishes of

common people$ as e9pressed through their chosen representatives- members of parliament 36&4ut as mentioned earlier$ criminali*ation of politics over last 2-7 decades has led to a state$ where

parliamentary processes can be manipulated$ neutrali*ed 3by referring important issues to inefficientsub-committees6 and subverted through log-rolling by a small groups of legislators with vested

interests&

Background to Ombudsman bill+ hough there are two ape9 bodies- Central

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4aba amdev$ a Doga teacher ,e#riwal an e9-bureaucrat ,iran 4edi an e9-cop anish )isodiya a

:ight to Information; activist$ =r ,umar 4iswas a poet and a social communicator etc& hegovernment buckled under the popular protests$ brought up a diluted version of %mbudsman bill for

debate in the parliament&

his group of crusaders began to scatter subse(uently on various issues+ 4aba amdev focused on

black money stashed abroad by the ruling cli(ue 3the Congress party6 and was seen to be close toopposition$ the 45$ the "indu right wing party& Another (uestion was+ )hould the group enter

politics to defeat corrupt politicians ,e#riwal and his supporters were convinced that protests alone

can not change the situation& hey opted for political means- by starting a party and deciding tocontest elections& Anna "a#are has decided to recruit a new group- including the e9 Army chief and

#udicial big-wigs$ to continue protesting corruption as a civil group&

In the meantime$ ,e#riwal and his group 3India Against Corruption6 has been e9posing one scam

after another in 2012$ beginning from r Badra$ the son-in-law of all powerful Congress leader$rs )onia @andhi to 45 supremo$ 8itin @adkari& Bith this last e9pose$ it becomes believable that

he is trying to discredit both the national parties as deeply corrupt and in cohorts with each other$

and carve out a new constituency for his party& %r does he simply want to discredit all politicalparties and ensue anarchy )ome commentators doubt that he has a viable plan& 8ow$ if we apply

organi*ed anarchy model to this scenario$ here are the points of consonance+

1& Unclear Solutionshe ruling party 3Congress6$ led by an economist$ =r anmohan )ingh$ wants us to believe that the

real issue India faces is maintaining E growth rate of the Indian economy- and therefore stability

at every cost must be ensured& %pposition 345 and its allies6 think that the solution is controllingthe prices of day to day commodities and having a strong governance to safe guard national security

against terrorist$ separatist etc& Common people$ informed and influenced by an activist media$believe that corruption is the % issue today& olitical class thinks that anarchy and destabili*ation

will result if %mbudsman bill is given too sweeping a power- like bringing the rime inister

under its ambit and therefore only a diluted bill should be allowed at present& 5udiciary andbureaucracy (uestions how %mbudsman and its small team is ever going to deal with thousands of

corruption cases being unearthed every day "ow will it work and implement its decisions$ whenregular courts have cases pending for years )o$ they want the e9isting institutions 3C4I and C

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scanner- with its Gaw inister 3)alman ,hurshid6 and obert Badera under cloud& 8ow with

opposition party chief 38itin @adkari6 fully e9posed$ the entire political class stands naked& 4othparties have #oined hands now to discredit ,e#riwal and his team by digging into their past&

Gatest actors to enter this arena are- )heila =i9it$ Chief inister of =elhi$ who has sued ,e#riwalfor defamation$ in a toughening of Congress party's stance against anti-corruption crusaders& 4ut

)heila =i9it has also given in- by reducing the power tariffs- a source of agitation& %ther recententrants in the foray are =igvi#ay )ingh$ =r )wami and some Corporate H media players- with all

kind of accusations flying around& hird (uarter of 2012 in India could be called the most intense

period of scams$ e9pose$ sting operations$ rallies$ mud-slinging etc& he central cabinet of ministershas undergone biggest reshuffle in %ctober 2012- as a result of these accusations& 4ut media

believes that this cabinet change is only a change in appearance- not in substance and intent&

7& Unclear !references and "dentitiesIAC 3India against corruption6 began as a civil movement& )ome of its members started a politicalparty$ with sights set on the ne9t general elections& )ome wish to retain the high moral ground by

sticking to its original non-political nature and intentions of never holding any office& )ome

members of this group leaned towards ight wing 45$ as if Congress is corrupt and 45 is not&,e#riwal's group has successfully proved that both the parties are two faces of one and same coin+

rampant corruption& here are others who want to deal with corruption affecting the common man-not the corporate corruption&

45 supported this movement as long as Congress was getting the flak& Bhen 45 itself became the

target$ it has #oined Congress in saying that ,e#riwal should come up with political solutions rather

than conducting :media trials;& "is group has also been accused of receiving western funding todestabili*e India Bhen misdeeds of big corporate players 3eliance6 were unearthed$ both 45 and

Congress have blamed each other& he (uestion still awaiting a clear answer+ Is the rime inisterof India$ under pressure from Corporate houses Bhose interest does he represent Common Indian

or 4ig corporations "is own political party or the nation at large

!& #indo$ of o!!ortunity % &eadlineBinter session of Indian parliament begins 21st 8ovember and could be an opportunity for all theparties to #oin hands and give the nation a strong %mbudsman bill& Bill they Chances are bleak

because opposition is in a combative mood and plans to bring in no-confidence move on another

issue+ Foreign =irect Investment 3F=I6 in the retail sector& )o$ chances are- political parties willeither dilute the bill or postpone it under the smoke screen of other contemporary issues& 4ut then$

there is another deadline approaching+ he general elections in 201!$ by when everyone will have totake a stand on corruption and the %mbudsman bill& In the meantime$ there are some state elections

during which ,e#riwal's party- IAC$ will try and force people to vote on the issue of probity andethics in public life&

/& Choice arenas % Unclear technologiesAs of now$ the battle between forces of change and status (uo is being fought in four arenas we can

also think of these as diverse technologies$ being used by these diverse actors$ who may not be able

to negotiate with each other at a common ground$ because of segmented hierarchicalaccess rules&For e9ample- ,e#riwal and anmohan )ingh can not meet and talk in arliament$ since one is a

parliamentarian while the other is #ust a guy in the street& In fact$ recently when ,e#riwal went tosee him to hand him a memorandum$ he was arrested&

)o here are the four arenas and the technologies in use+16 Parliament- governed by corrupt parliamentarians and parochial politics&26 Media Trials- a powerful tool used by anti-corruption crusaders& hese have been so effective

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that ruling party 3Congress6 has issued a directive to its members not to talk to media about any

accusation made by IAC&76 Courts of 'a$work slowly and steadily they often come up with indictment against people inpower but are (uite helpless in keeping the criminals out of politics&

!6 Street corner !olitics and agitations+ his avenue is popular among the common agitators andactors without backing of big parties& In recent demonstrations in Farrukhabad$ IAC demonstrated

that common man supported them$ in stark preference to a national party like Congress& hese smallvictories of IAC could be the final undoing of Congress in 201! elections&

.& Other elements of decision makinghe government and the ministers are supposed to act as rational actors- taking the decisions in the

best interest of the country& hey try but often wilt under pressure from corporate lobbies andpolitical allies& he political parties enter alliances with these actors to fund their election

campaigns and sei*e the power& inisters head big bureaucracies 3like Army6 which indulge in their

own politics& )o$ it appears that in this over all garbage can scenario$ there are many sub-plots$wherein decisions are based on the conte9t$ e9pediency$ goals and role embracement& 4ut overall-

there is a great uncertainty as to how one billion Indians will deal with this big issue of corruption

in public life and governance&

& Confluence of streams in 2()*+here is a huge degree of ambiguity as to who could do what and with what degree of success in the

present scenario& 4ut one thing can be said+ his ambiguity itself will push actors forwardine9orably& Jven though atmosphere is full of suspicion$ distrust and anger- I feel that various

streams will seek out each other perforce and merge in 2-7 main streams of energies 3actors6$

solutions and problems 3perception thereof6 over ne9t 1-2 years& %f the two national parties$ onewhich embraces anti-corruption agenda the fastest H the best$ will have a better chance of returning

to power& It may undergo alliance with anti-corruption forces before elections& 5udiciary may$ as ithas done in the past$ take initiative and start suo-moto fast track action against corrupt politicians&

edia too may take a strident anti-corruption stance$ generate huge public opinion and influence

the elections& All this may happen2% may not happen$ depending on how vested interests react&hey may obfuscate the whole issue by bringing in right wing agenda$ fear of e9ternal threat$ offer

sacrifice of small time politicians etc&

)o what is the message for actors in this @arbage-Can scenario+ Anti-corruption crusaders shouldwait and watch 3let some more garbage be thrown in6 identify potential allies wait foropportunities$ e9pect unplanned departures or entries and prepare for the =eadlines %verload the

system by unearthing scams every few days keep the media busy with daily announcements of waron corruption ,eep the bu** alive and remember that outcomes may not depend on their intentions

but on fortuitous timing- so keep their faith alive$ be patient and set sights on 201! elections3@iesecke$ 1>>16&

Constraints of the modelhe only constraint I can think of+ the various actors seem to be shut off in different arenas hey do

not seem to have any parity or a common :technology; when it comes to making decisionsaffecting India$ as a whole& hey are not the typical managers in a given organi*ation- or librarians$

staff and students in a university library hey do not even seem to share the same planet+ Anna$ukesh Ambani$ )onia @andhi$ anmohan )ingh$ @adkari and the aam aadmi35ohn 5ane =oe of

India6& 4ut may be thisis the over all nature of the @arbage-Can+ anything can be thrown in and

become the part of ambiguity which can lead to some interesting interactions and wild outcomes&

2 India has challenged and threw up authoritarian government in une9pected ways in the past too refer :Jmergency;in 1>/-. K seelink&

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,946718,00.htmlhttp://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,946718,00.htmlhttp://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,946718,00.html

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Anything can happen in a garbage can situation

)atyendra )rivastava 3)tudent6 =ate+ 2nd 8ovember 2012

satksriLgmail&com

%rgani*ational AnalysisCoursera&org