GAME-II Monsoon System Modelling WG
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GAME-II Monsoon System Modelling WG
T. Satomura (Kyoto Univ.)
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Activity in 2003 #1
• The 2nd workshop on regional climate modeling for monsoon system
– March 4-6, Yokohama, Japan– Organized with FRSGC– 68 participants in total
• 13 invited, 20 from abroad
– 30 oral presentations & 5 posters
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Recommendation of 2nd RCM WS
1. Publish the proceedings of WS
2. Prepare a special issue of JMSJ
3. Plan a inter-comparison experiment of model sensitivity to contribute regional climate forecasts of IPCC
4. Arrange a consortium to promote the usage of the ES
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Activity in 2003 #2
• Proceedings was published in Aug. 2003 as the GAME Publication No.39
• Preparing a special issue of J. Metor. Soc. Japan– 15 papers were submitted and in the peer r
eview process– the issue will be published in next April
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Acitivity Plan in 2004
• Detail is not yet decided but…• 3rd RCM WS will be held
– Feb. 17-20, 2004 at Hawaii Univ.– the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), the F
RSGC, and the GISP are co-sponsoring
– All presentations will be jointly presented at the International Asian Monsoon Symposium (IAMS)
– Dead line of submission is 15 November
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Special Topics of one day discussion in 3rd WS
1. modeling sub-daily variation of clouds and precipitation, and cloud-radiation feedback
2. water cycle and hydrological modeling for monsoon system
3. to facilitate the long-term collaboration and to initiate and coordinate the research initiatives in the community
4. to identify problems and discrepancies in RCMs and modeling approach, and to discuss future directions
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2nd RCM WS Photo
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Diurnal variation of precipitation
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GCM cannot simulate them
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Radar observation MAY to JUL 1999
Windward side(western area)
Mountainousregion
Lee side(eastern area)
0 5 10 15 20(LT)
0 5 10 15 20(LT)
reg01reg02reg03
reg05reg06
1234567891011
(%)
10
20
15
5
(%)
10
20
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5
reg07
(%)
10
20
15
5
0 5 10 15 20(LT)
reg08reg09reg10reg11reg04
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In October 1999
Windward side(eastern area)
Mountainousregion
Lee side(western area)
0 5 10 15 20(LT)
1234567891011
(%)
10
20
15
5
0 5 10 15 20(LT)
(%)
10
20
15
5
reg01reg02reg03reg04
reg05reg06reg07
0 5 10 15 20(LT)
(%)
10
20
15
5
reg08reg09reg10reg11
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Numerical Model
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Rainfall trends in Thailand (1951-1994)
Kanae et al.(2001),
J. of Hydromet.
-TObserved trends
Simulated change with deforestation condition by RAMS
Both Obs. and Simulated change show remarkble decrease of rainfall in September.
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“FOREST”
Experiment
“CURRENT”
Integration Period: April 20 – September 30, 1998
Each ensemble has 5 members
ECMWF for boundary & initials
2 ensembles with IPRC_RegCM
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Comparison Changes in modeled Rainfall Changes in observed Rainfall