Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
-
Upload
professor-tarun-das -
Category
Documents
-
view
218 -
download
0
Transcript of Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
1/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
THE GAMBIA MONTHLY
ECONOMIC BULLETIN1
PART-ONE
July 2009
Institutional Support Project for Economic and Financial Governance (ISPEFG)
Department of State for Finance and Economic Affairs (DOSFEA)The Republic of Gambia
The Quadrangle, Banjul, the Gambia
1The Gambia Monthly/ Quarterly Economic Bulletinprovides an update on recent economicdevelopments and policies in the Republic of the Gambia. The Bulletin is prepared by a research team
comprising Tamsir Cham, Director; Momodou Taal, Principal Economist, Amie Khan, Senior Economist,
Yaya Drammeh, Senior Economist and Ceesay Chiel, Economist in the Economic Management and
Planning Unit (EMPU) and Tarun Das, Macroeconomic Adviser (ISPEFG); Ministry of Finance andEconomic Affairs (MOFEA); with key inputs from the Debt Management Adviser, Fiscal/Financial
Adviser, the Central Bank of Gambia (CBG), the Gambian Bureau of Statistics (GBOS), and the Gambian
Revenue Authority (GRA).
Any questions and feedback can be addressed to: Either Tamsir Cham ([email protected]) orTarun Das ([email protected])
1
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
2/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
Political and Administrative Structure
The Gambia is divided into seven regions comprising two Municipalities namely, Banjul City
Council (BCC) and the Kanifing Municipal Council (KMC) and five provincial administrative
regions namely, Western Region (WR), North Bank Region (NBR), Lower River Region (LRR),
Central River Region (CRR) and Upper River Region (URR).
Politically, the relevant units are Local Government Areas (urban), Districts, Wards and Villages.The Gambia has 35 districts and about 1870 villages with an average of 13 compounds.Basic Facts about Gambia:
Fiscal year: 1st January to 31st DecemberItems (Year) Units Value Rank in the World
from topin descending order
Area (2009) Sq. km. 11,300 171 out of 248countries
Population (2008) Million 1.735 148 out of 241countries
GDP PPP (2004) Million US$ 3284 167 out of 224countriesGDP Nominal (2006) Million US$ 511 199 out of 229
countriesGDP PPP per capita (2004) US$ 1945 177 out of 223
countriesGDP per capita (2006) US$ 329 192 out of 207
countriesPoverty Ratio (% of people Percent 59 7 out of 59 countries
2
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
3/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
below One-US$) (2000)
Source:http://www.nationmaster.com
3
http://www.nationmaster.com/http://www.nationmaster.com/http://www.nationmaster.com/ -
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
4/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
____________________________________________________________
Contents
PART-I Page
ISPEFG Project/ Research Team and Document History 4
Highlights 5-7
At a Glance 8-11
1. Global Economic Outlook and Global Public Policy
1.1Global stabilization is uneven and recovery is slow1.2 Risks have moderated but remain to the downside1.3 Global Commodity Prices and Inflation1.4Trends of international crude oil prices
12-1712141516
2. Current State of the Gambian Economy
2.1Overall and Sectoral GDP Growth Rates2.2Growth Rates of Selected Indicators for Trade and Transport2.3Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation2.4Factors affecting inflation and Anti-inflationary Measures2.5Projection of CPI inflation for the year 2009
18-41
1820212324
PART-II Page
2.6Government Fiscal Performance2.7Projections of Fiscal Outturn for 20092.8External Debt Situation2.9Domestic Debt and Outstanding Treasury Bills2.10Treasury Bills Yields2.11Money Supply2.12Sectoral Distribution of Bank Credits2.13Commercial Banks Assets2.14Commercial Banks Liabilities2.15Interest Rates and CBG Policy Rates2.16Balance of Payments and Foreign Exchange Reserves2.17Exchange Rates
283032333536373839404146
3. Assessment of Quantitative Targets agreed with IMF under MEFP 47-48
4
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
5/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
ISPEFG Project and Monthly Report Research Team
Project Supervisors Honorable Mr. Mod A. K. Secka,Permanent Secretary-IandHonorable Mr. Serign Cham,Permanent Secretary-II
Project Coordinator Mr. Momodou Cham
Director (EMPU)Principal Economist
Senior EconomistSenior EconomistEconomistTechnical Assistant (Debt Management)Technical Assistant (Fiscal/ Financial)Technical Assistant (Macroeconomic)
Mr. Tamsir ChamMr. Momodou Taal
Ms. Amie KhanMr. Yaya DrammehMs. Ceesay ChilelMr. Adam AikutaMr. Dan Mambule MwanjeMr. Tarun Das
Document History:
This report is an update of the following reports prepared by the Research Team:
1. The Gambia Quarterly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-30, 31 March 2009.2. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, 31 March 2009.3. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-40, 30 April 2009.4. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, 30 April 2009.5. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, pp.1-39, 31 May 2009.6. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-15, 31 May 2009.7. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, Part-1, pp.01-22, June 2009.8. The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, Part-2, pp.23-46, June 2009.9. The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, June 2009.
10.The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, Part-1, pp.01-22, July 2009.11.The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin, Part-2, pp.23-46, July 2009.12.The Gambia Monthly Economic Abstract, pp.1-16, July 2009.
5
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
6/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
HIGHLIGHTS
Impact of Global Financial Crisis and Economic Slowdown
As per the latest IMF projectionsmade in theirWorld Economic Outlook Update (dated 8 July2009), world output is projected to decline by 1.4 percent in 2009 as a whole and to recovergradually in 2010, growing by only 2.5 percent. IMF concludes that although the global economyhas started to pull out of the unprecedented recession since the World War-II, but recovery isuneven and slow. In African developing economies, growth is projected to slow downsignificantly from 5.2 percent in 2008 to 2 percent in 2009.
Food and Oil Prices
Due to sluggish demand and economic slowdown, there were significant decline of world
commodity prices including food and petroleum since August 2008. However, since March 2009commodity prices have started rising again in response to some increase in global demand, butcommodity prices still rule much below the peaks reached last year..
At the beginning of 2009, given weakness in the Chinese demand and negative growth in the US
and EU and OPECs decision to have no supply cuts, global crude oil prices were projected toremain soft and rule around $51 per barrel in 2009. However, since April 2009 petroleum pricesstarted rising and increased to $60/barrel in May 2009 and S$70/barrel in June 2009. Recentforward markets project oil prices around $74 for 2010, which is not much above current price.
Impact on the Gambian Economy
A global crisis of this magnitude is bound to have adverse impact on any country. The Gambian
economy was not an exception and witnessed sharp decline in exports, remittances, foreigninvestment, tourist arrivals, manufacturing production and wholesale and retail trade during 2008.
However, thanks to bumper crops contributed by favorable monsoon and very good performanceby electricity, telecom and financial sectors, the real GDP growth at factor cost improved from6.1% in 2007 to 7.2% in 2008, supported by a spectacular growth of 28.4% in agriculture output.
Even though the Gambian economy was relatively insulated from the first round effects of the
global financial crises, the spread of the financial crisis to the real sectors of the global economyhas impacted the manufacturing production, services and trade sectors in the Gambian economy.In particular, exports, retail trade, tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) have declined sincethe second half of 2008 due to weak global demand.
Due to fall in exports, tourists income and foreign investment, real GDP growth rate in 2009 is
expected to decelerate to a range of 3.6% to 4.5%, aided by a growth of 4% to 6% in agricultureproduction, 2% to 2.4% in industry and 2.4% to 4.4% in services production.
CPI Inflation
Annual point-to-point CPI inflation accelerated significantly from 2.2% (food 2.6% and non-food
1.8%) in June 2008 to 5.4% (food 6.5% and non-food 3.9%) in June 2009, and the 12-monthaverage inflation rate accelerated to 6.1% in June 2009 from 4.6% a year ago.
6
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
7/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
Government Financial Performance
Government Financial Performance in the first half of 2009 (Jan-June 2009) has been better to
some extent than in the first half of last year (Jan-June 2008). In Jan-June 2009 revenue andgrants increased by 15.5% aided by 13.3% increase in taxes, 8.9% increase in non-taxes and63.7% increase in grants over Jan-June 2008.
However, on overall, there was a fiscal deficit of 198 million Dalasi (1% of GDP) in Jan-June
2009, higher than the fiscal deficit of 86 million Dalasi (0.5% of GDP) in Jan-June 2008, due tosignificant increase of capital expenditure by 55.2% in Jan-June 2009 over Jan-June 2008,(compared to a decline by 19% in Jan-June 2008 over Jan-June 2007).
Domestic Debt and Treasury Bills Yields
At the end of June 2009, outstanding domestic debt stood at D5.7 billion (amounting to 28.8% ofGDP), down by 4.4% from the outstanding domestic debt at D6 billion (amounting to 33.4% ofGDP) a year ago. The share of Treasury bills increased from 80.5% at the end of June 2008 to84.6% at the end of June 2009,
Yields on treasury bills fluctuated widely in recent months. Despite stability in deposit rates andsignificant decline of CPI inflation from 7% in Jan 2009 to 5.4% in June 2009, average yield on91-day increased from 10.5% in Jan 2009 to 13% in June 2009, yield of 182-day bills increasedfrom 12.1% to 13.8% and that of 364-day bills increased from 14.4% to 15.6% over the period.
Money Supply and Bank Credits
Annual growth rate of money supply (M3) increased from 8.5% in June 2008 to 21.2% in June2009, aided by 18.1% growth in currency, 23% growth in demand deposits, 12.8% growth insavings deposits and 33.8% growth in time deposits. On the demand side, growth was mainlydue to 31.7% growth in domestic credits, while net foreign assets decreased by 4.8%.
Domestic credit increased from D5.3 billion in June 2008 to D6.9 billion in June 2009, supported
by 45.9% growth in government borrowing, 119.4% growth in credits to public entities and 18.2%growth in credits to the private sector, over a year ago.
The Banking sector continues to function efficiently with sufficient capital and liquidity. Theindustrys risk-weighted capital adequacy ratio stood at 34.84% in March 2009, significantlyabove the statutory requirement of 8%. The ratio of non-performing loans declined from 9.4% inDecember 2008 to 7.2% in March 2009.
Credit increase was broad-based along all sectors. In March 2009, credit to agriculture, fishing,
manufacturing and building and construction increased by 66.2%, 17.8%, 76% and 39.3%respectively over March 2008. Similarly, loans and advances to transportation, distributive trade,tourism and financial institutions grew by 27.4%, 27.5%, 16.5% and 61.3% respectively during thesame period.
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities
Gambian banks were least affected by global financial crisis as the Gambian banks do not have
large exposure to foreign assets or liabilities. Total industry assets increased by 16.9% on year-on-year basis from D11.3 billion at end-June 2008 to D13.2 billion at end-June 2009.
At end-June 2009, foreign assets constituted only 8.8% of total assets and external sector relatedliabilities constituted only 2.6% of total liabilities.
7
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
8/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
8
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
9/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
Interest Rates and Central Bank Policy Rates
Given the acceleration in inflation and the weakening of the Dalasi, the MPC decided to increase
the Rediscount Rate by one percentage point to 16.0% in October 2008. The CBG policy rate has
remained unchanged at 16% since then.
Despite significant fall of the inflation rate since January 2009, Treasury bill yields, short-termdeposit rates and commercial banks lending rates remain very high leading to wide interest rate
spreads and high cost economy. Appropriate monetary measures are necessary to reduce the
short-term deposit rates and the lending rates.
Balance of Payments
Balance of Payments estimates indicate an overall deficit of D767.3 billion (-) $34.2 million) in
2008 compared to surplus of D741.7 million ($29.8 million) in 2007, reflecting the deterioration inboth current and capital accounts. The Net Usable Reserve of the CBG stood at US$95.6 millionat end-March 2009 and was above the IMF Program target (floor) by US$3.6 million.
Provisional balance of payments estimates for the first quarter of 2009 indicate an overall deficitof D468.9 million (US $17.9 million) compared to D7.42 million (US $0.34 million) in the firstquarter of 2008. The current account deficit, including official transfers, amounted to D234.3million compared to a surplus of D4.94 million a year ago. The capital and financial accountwidened from a deficit of D12.36 million in the fourth quarter of 2008 to D234.53 million in the firstquarter of 2009.
Revised balance of payments projections by the CBG indicate an overall deficit of D13.8 million(US$0.5 million) in 2009 compared to D811.30 million (US$30.3 million) in 2008. The currentaccount deficit, including official transfers is expected to widen to D3.8 billion (19% of GDP) in2009 from D3.6 billion (17.8% of GDP) in 2008. The capital and financial account balance isexpected to improve from a surplus of D2.7 billion in 2008 to D3.8 billion in 2009.
Foreign Exchange Reserves
The volume of transactions in the inter-bank foreign exchange market totaled D33.3 billion(US$1.4 billion) in January-May 2009 compared to D36.5 billion (US$1.7 billion) a year ago. Atend-May 2009, gross international reserves stood at D2.6 billion (US$119.7 million) equivalent to4.0 months of import cover.
Exchange Rate
During Jan-April 2009, every month the Dalasi depreciated against major international currencies(viz. US$, CHF, EURO and CFA) traded in the inter-bank market except the UK, reflecting theADVERSE impact of the global financial crisis on remittances and tourism and increased demandfor foreign exchange to meet the high cost of imports. Since May 2009 Dalasi has also started
depreciating against UK.
At end-July 2009, Dalasi has depreciated by 5.3% against British Pound, by 27.3% against US$,by 24.7% against CHF, by 17.4% against Euro and by 11.5% against CFA over end-July 2008.
Overall Outlook
Prospects of the Gambian economy in the second half of 2009 are considered to be bright
with rise of investment and output in all sectors and deceleration of inflation rate.
9
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
10/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
10
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
11/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
At a Glance- July 2009
EconomicIndicators
LatestReference
Period
Status in thelatest reference
period
Status in theCorresponding
period in theprevious year
Outlook for 2009
1. Real Sector Growth Rates (in percentage)
Real GDP (FC)Growth rate (%)
Calendar year2008
Overall 7.2Agriculture 28.4Industry 0.7Services (-) 0.6
Overall 6.1Agriculture 3.9Industry (-) 3.1Services 10.4
Overall 3.6 to 4.5Agriculture 4.0 to 6.0Industry 2.0 to 2.4Services 2.4 to 4.4
2. Growth rates of selected indicators for transport and communication (in percentage)
Ports cargounloaded
Calendar year2008
9.5 11.8
Ports cargoloaded
2008 20.9 -9.8
Total cargohandled at ports
2008 10.6 9.3
Growth rate of portscargo may decline.
Quantity of riceimports
2008 30.9 166.8
Quantity of flourimports
2008 -100.0 -10.9
Quantity of sugarimports
2008 -10.8 83.4
Quantity ofcement imports
2008 28.7 19.3
Quantity of POLimports
2008 6.5 -8.2
Growth rates of rice andcement may decelerate,while growth rates ofsugar and POL mayimprove.
Total cargo
handled by air
2008 -3.2 -31.1
Total mailhandled by air
2008 -53.8 65.6
Total air-flights2008 -5.4 -6.4
Arrivingpassengers
2008 -21.9 19.0
Originatingpassengers
2008 -15.7 14.8
Total airpassengers
2008 -18.9 16.9
Growth rates of air cargo
and passenger trafficmay improve by the endof 2009 if the developedcountries startrecovering in the lastquarter of 2009.
Total touristarrivals
2008 -5.0 14.3 Tourists arrivals may godown.
Vehiclesimported
2008 -27.0 18.4
Total licensedvehicles
2008 2.5 2.8
Likely to remain stable.
Fixed telephonesubscribers
2008 4.5 4.8 Likely to remain stable.
11
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
12/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
At a Glance- July 2009 Continued
EconomicIndicators
LatestReference
Period
Status in thelatest reference
periodin 2009
Status in theCorrespondingperiod in 2008
Outlook for 2009
3. Inflation rate (in percentage) and Crude Oil price (in US$/ barrel)CPI inflation (%) June 2009 Overall 5.4
Food 6.5Non-food 3.9
Overall 2.2Food 2.6Non-food 1.7
Expected to decline inthe remaining months ofthe year
Brent crude oilprice (US$/ brl)
July 2009 AverageUS$68.50
Average US$133 May stabilize aroundUS$70 by the end-2009
4. Government fiscal operations - Percentage change over previous periodRevenue & grants Jan-June 2009 15.5 -1.2
Dom. Revenue Jan- June 2009 12.9 -3.8Tax Revenue Jan- June 2009 13.3 -0.3Nontax Rev Jan- June 2009 8.9 -26.3
Grants Jan- June 2009 63.7 102.5Exp & Net Lending Jan- June 2009 20.4 14.7
Current Exp Jan- June 2009 6.3 29.3Per. Emoluments Jan- June 2009 18.0 34.0Other Charges Jan- June 2009 -1.2 57.7Interest Jan- June 2009 6.3 -5.9
External Jan- June 2009 22.7 -23.5Domestic Jan- June 2009 2.1 0.1
Cap Exp & NL Jan- June 2009 67.8 -16.7Cap. Expenditure Jan- June 2009 55.2 -18.9Net Lending Jan- June 2009 144.4 -0.8
Overall Bal Jan-June 2009 129.7 -144.4
Basic balance Jan-June2009 125.3 -88.1
Basic Pr. Balance Jan-June2009 24.7 -54.5
Fiscal performance in thefirst half of 2009 i.e. Jan-June 2009 was mixed ascompared with theBudget estimates.Better performance byrevenue items in Jan- June2009 compared to that inJan- June 2008.However, on overall, therewas a fiscal deficit of D198million in Jan-June 2009,higher than the fiscal deficitof D86 million in Jan-June2008, due to significantincrease of capitalexpenditure by 55.2% inJan-June 2009 over Jan-June 2008
5. Government fiscal operations as percentage of GDP at current market pricesRev. and grants Jan-June 2009 11.1 10.7
Exp & Net Lending Jan-June 2009 12.1 11.2Interest Jan-June 2009 2.1 2.2
Overall fiscal bal. Jan-June 2009 -1.0 -0.5Basic Balance Jan-June 2009 0.8 0.4
Primary Bas. Bal, Jan-June 2009 2.8 2.5
As % of GDP at current
market prices, revenues,expenditures and basicbalance are off-track.
6. Outstanding Domestic Public Debt in Million DalasiTreasury bills June 2009 4,854 4,829Sukuk Al-Salam June 2009 85 48Govt Bonds June 2009 250 250NIB Treas. Notes June 2009 547 873Total (Million D) June 2009 5,736 6,000
Outstanding treasurybills are expected todecline.
As % of GDP June 2009 28.8 33.4 Likely to decline in 2009.
7. Composition of Outstanding Domestic Public Debt (Percentage share in total)Treasury bills June 2009 84.6 80.5Sukuk Al-Salam June 2009 1.5 0.8Govt Bonds June 2009 4.4 4.2NIB Treas. Notes June 2009 9.5 14.6Total June 2009 100 100
Share of non-interestbearing Treasury notesis expected to decline.
12
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
13/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
At a Glance-July 2009 Continued
EconomicIndicators
LatestReference
PeriodStatus in the
latest referenceperiodin 2009
Status in theCorrespondingperiod in 2008
Outlook for 2009
8. Maturity Composition of Treasury Bills (in Percentage)91-days June 2009 17 9182-days June 2009 17 21364-days June 2009 67 70
Expected to remainstable
9. Yields of Treasury Bills (in Percentage)91-days June 2009 13.0 10.0
182-days June 2009 13.8 11.2364-days June 2009 15.6 13.3
Yields may come down
as CPI inflation hasstarted decelerating.
10. Annual Growth Rate of Money Supply (Percentage)Broad Moneysupply (M3)
June 2009 21.2 8.5
Reserve Money June 2009 10.6 -2.5
Broad money growthrate is likely todecelerate.
11. CBG Policy Rates and Banks Lending rates (Percentage per annum)
CBG Bank rate June 2009 10 10Rediscount rate June 2009 16 15Bank lending
rate
June 2009 18 to 27 18 to 27
Banks lending rates maydecline if the credit ratingsystem is strengthened.
12. Share of Banks Foreign Assets/ Liabilities in Total Assets/ Liabilities (%)Foreign assets May 2009 7.5 11.7Foreign liabilities May 2009 1.5 2.8
Likely to remain stable
13. Sectoral distribution of bank credits (in percentage)
13
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
14/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
Agriculture March 2009 6.7 7.9Fishing March
20090.6 0.5
Manufacturing March2009
3.7 4.7
Building March
2009
10.7 10.7
Transportation March2009
9.5 8.6
Trade March2009
25.5 23.2
Tourism March2009
8.0 6.7
Financial Inst. March2009
3.2 3.6
Other comm. March2009
19.8 17.6
Others March2009
12.3 16.5
Total credits March2009
100.0 100.0
Bank credits toagriculture andmanufacturing are risingat faster rate in 2009,while trade, commercialactivities, and
construction attractmajor shares of bankcredits, indicating somerevival of investment andeconomic activities in2009.
14
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
15/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
At a Glance-July 2009 Continued
EconomicIndicators
LatestReference
PeriodStatus in the
latest referenceperiodin 2009
Status in theCorrespondingperiod in 2008
Outlook for 2009
14. Balance of Payments (Million US Dollar)
Goods A/C Bal. 2009-Q1 -32.3 -44.0Goods exports 2009-Q1 35.7 37.9Goods imports 2009-Q1 68.0 81.9Services, net 2009-Q1 20.3 33.7Tourism 2009-Q1 23.5 37.7
Official transfer 2009-Q1 4.1 2.0Remittances 2009-Q1 11.1 10.3Other transfer 2009-Q1 -9.3 9.2Income, net 2009-Q1 -2.9 -11.0
Likely to remain underpressure.
Current A/C Bal 2009-Q1 -8.9 0.2Overall BOP Bal 2009-Q1 -17.9 -0.3Foreign Exch.Reserve
End March2009 120.5 208.6
Equi. to monthsof imports c.i.f.
End March2009
4.6 6.6Likely to deteriorate
further in 2009.
15. Inter-bank Exchange Rate- End Period Mid-Market Rates
Dalasi per unit of foreign currency
UK July 2009 43.85 41.65US$ July 2009 26.65 20.94CHF July 2009 24.83 19.90Euro July 2009 37.80 32.21CFA (5000) July 2009 280.00 251.05
Dalasi is likely todepreciate against majorcurrencies during theyear 2009.
16. Annual Appreciation (-)/ Depreciation of Dalasi per unit of foreign currency
15
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
16/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
At the End of the period
UK July 2009 5.3 -20.6US$ July 2009 27.3 -19.2CHF July 2009 24.7 -10.3Euro July 2009 17.4 -9.4
CFA (5000) July 2009 11.5 -6.9
Dalasi is likely todepreciate against majorcurrencies in the secondquarter.
17. Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Million)
ForeignExchangeReserves
End-May2009
119.7 140.4 Likely to remain under pressure.
16
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
17/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
1. Global Economic Outlook and Global Public Policies1.1 Global stabilization is uneven and recovery is slow
According to the IMF latest World Economic Outlook (WEO)2 released on July 8, 2009, theglobal economy has started to pull out of the unprecedented recession since the secondWorld War, but recovery is uneven and slow. World output is now projected to contract by
1.4 percent in 2009 and to expand by 2.5 percent in 2010, which is 0.6 percentage pointhigher than envisaged in the April 2009 WEO (Figure-1 and Table-1). Among the majoreconomies, growth rates have been marked up mainly for the United States and Japan.
Emerging and developing economies are projected to regain growth momentum in thesecond half of 2009, but with notable regional differences.
Growth projections in emerging Asia have been revised upward to 5.5 percent in2009 and 7.0 percent in 2010, due to improved prospects in China and India, as aresult of substantial macroeconomic stimulus; and a faster-than-expected turnaroundin capital inflows.
Growth projections for emerging Africa and the Middle East have been revised
downward by 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points in 2009, respectively, while those for2010 are broadly unchanged. Both regions have been more negatively affected bythe drop in global trade than previously expected, with Middle Eastern oil exportersusing their financial reserves to prop up domestic demand.
Prospects of the Gambian Economy: As per the IMF estimates, the real GDP growth inthe Gambia decelerated from 6.3 percent in 2007 to 5.9 percent in 2008 and is projected todecelerate further to 4 percent in 2009 due to adverse impact of the global financial crisisand economic slowdown.
2 World Economic Outlook Update, International Monetary Fund, 8 July 2009, Washington
D.C.
17
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
18/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
Figure-1: Trends of Growth Rates of Global Outputand Exports
18
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
19/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
19
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
20/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
1.2 Risks have moderated but remain to the downside.
There are still downside risks to the outlook due to rising unemployment and a loss of confidence inthe stability of the financial markets of developed countries. Moreover, rising questions aboutpublic debt sustainability in some countries could add to upward pressure on bond yields, with
negative effects on the recovery of housing markets.
IMF Policy Prescription
Financial conditions have improved more than expected, mainly due to fiscal and financial supportby the government and monetary authorities (such as cuts in policy interest rates, continuedprovision of ample liquidity, credit easing, provision of public guarantees, bail outs and bankrecapitalization etc.). Given weak internal and external demands, the IMF suggests thatmacroeconomic policies need to stay supportive, to sustain production and employment in bothdeveloped and developing countries.
Strong policy implementation remains key for a durable recovery.
Financial, monetary and fiscal policy
The overarching policy priority remains restoring financial sector health, which can effectivelyperform its role of allocating savings to competing projects and thereby sustaining productivitygrowth. While major progress has been made in restoring bank solvency, it is not yet sufficient tostop the deleveraging. Accordingly, continued efforts are necessary to restore financial sector healthover the medium and long term for sustained growth and employment. In the United States,addressing toxic assets remains a key priority to put the health of the financial sector on a firmerfooting. Although many of the largest U.S. banks are able to raise private capital and, in somecases, to repay government bail-out funds, major downside risks continue in the banking sector. Inthe European Union and elsewhere, authorities are also actively assessing banking systemsoundness by conducting stress tests.
Monetary policy should remain supportive until growth resumes and deflationary risks dissipate. Inthe emerging economies, macroeconomic policy has to strike a balance between the need tosupport demand and the risk of exacerbating capital outflows and undermining fiscal sustainability.To this end, where underlying inflationary pressures are easing, central banks may reduce theirpolicy rates cautiously to avoid a disorderly adjustment in exchange rates and large capitaloutflows.
Rising concerns about fiscal sustainability underline the need for stronger medium-term fiscal policy
frameworks (MTFPF). Although fiscal policy needs to stay supportive through 2010, plans should bemade for rebuilding fiscal balances and ensuring sustainable debt paths after growth is firmlyreestablished. Relevant reforms are also desirable to strengthen fiscal and financial rules,regulations and institutional set-ups and to reduce the contingent liabilities relating to pension,provident funds and health and other insurance schemes.
20
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
21/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
1.3 World Commodity Prices and Inflation
Inflation pressures to remain low.
Inflation pressures have eased with the continued weakness of the global economy. Year-over-year inflation moderated to 1.7 percent in May 2009, down from around 6 percent one year
earlier. In the advanced economies, headline inflation fell below zero percent in May 2009 as oilprices remained far below levels one year earlier, despite their recent pickup. Core inflation isstill running around 1 percent, down from 2 percent one year earlier. Similarly, headline andcore inflation in the emerging markets have moderated, falling below 4 percent and to around1 percent in May, respectively. However, developments have been uneven, with inflation fallingmore in China, India and the Middle East than elsewhere.
As a result of the sharp downturn in global demand, commodity prices, especially for energy,declined significantly since the last quarter of 2008. Inflationary pressures had subsided in themajor advanced economies. There are also significant declines of housing prices in someadvanced countries, showing signs of deflation.
Inflation will continue to retreat due to the combination of lower commodity prices and increasing
economic slackness, with deflation risks growing in advanced economies. IMF forecastsindicate that G-7 deflation vulnerability has risen above its previous peak, reflecting high risks inJapan and the United States and moderate risks in several euro area members includingGermany, Italy and France.
Commodity Prices
Commodity prices have rebounded ahead of the recovery (Figure 4 and Table 1.2). The recentrally in commodity prices was strong and broad-based, reflecting improved market sentiment,U.S. dollar depreciation, and commodity-specific supply-demand conditions. Oil prices haveresponded strongly to improved demand prospects but also to Organization of PetroleumExporting Countries (OPEC) members strict observance of lower production quotas. Forwardmarkets project oil prices at $74.50 for 2010, not much above current levels, with high excess
capacity expected to buffer growing demand.
21
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/02/index.htm#fig4http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/02/index.htm#fig4 -
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
22/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
1.4 Trends of International Crude Oil Prices
During 2008 Brent crude oil prices ruled very high until July 2008 when prices increased to $147
per barrel. However, due to global financial crisis and economic slowdown oil prices starteddeclining thereafter. A recent report from the Paris based International Energy Agency (IEA) hasprojected that the world oil demand in 2009 will decline by half a million barrels per day (bpd).
Given weakness in the Chinese demand and negative growth in the US and EU in March-April2009 Brent crude oil prices ranged around US$47 per barrel. However, as mentioned earlier, oilprices responded strongly to improved demand prospects and OPEC members strictobservance of lower production quotas, and increased to an average of $58 per barrel in May2009 and further to an average of $69 per barrel in June 2009 (Table 1.2). Recent forwardmarkets project oil prices at $74.50 for 2010, not much above current levels, with high excesscapacity expected to buffer growing demand.
Trends of Monthly Brent Crude Oil Prices (US$/ barrel)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-9
Jul-99
Jan-0
Jul-0
Jan-0
Jul-01
Jan-0
Jul-0
Jan-0
Jul-0
Jan-0
Jul-0
Jan-0
Jul-0
Jan-0
Jul-0
Jan-0
Jul-0
Jan-0
Jul-0
Jan-0
Months and Years 1999-2009
US$perBa
Series1
22
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
23/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
Table-1.2 Trends of World Commodity Prices
Quarterly averages Monthly averages
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-Dec
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun Apr May Jun
Commodity Unit 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009
EnergyCoal, Australia a/ $/mt 138.65 162.80 92.97 71.93 66.48 63.56 64.50 71.38
Crude oil, Brent a/ $/bbl 122.39 115.60 55.89 44.98 59.13 50.85 57.94 68.62Crude oil, Dubai a/ $/bbl 116.67 113.47 53.67 44.56 58.93 50.18 57.40 69.21
Natural gas, Europe a/ $/mmbtu 12.40 14.62 15.75 11.94 8.18 8.51 8.09 7.95
Natural gas, US a/ $/mmbtu 11.35 9.03 6.40 4.57 3.71 3.50 3.81 3.81Beverages
Cocoa b/ /kg 276.4 282.6 224.1 259.7 258.7 258.1 247.5 270.4
Coffee, Arabica b/ /kg 315.1 321.2 267.8 283.9 320.2 297.4 332.9 330.2
Tea, Mombasa auctions b/ /kg 221.6 252.8 190.8 214.9 228.0 221.0 222.3 240.8Fats and Oils
Coconut oil b/ $/mt 1,499 1,246 772 677 781 747 843 754
Copra $/mt 1,013 817 520 447 513 499 559 480
Groundnut oil b/ $/mt 2,328 2,417 1,773 1,283 1,165 1,187 1,157 1,151
Palm oil b/ $/mt 1,198 928 512 577 744 702 801 730
Soybean oil b/ $/mt 1,466 1,353 830 755 859 801 892 885
Soybeans b/ $/mt 585 566 377 394 460 414 465 502Grains
Barley b/ $/mt 239.1 216.6 129.5 116.3 129.5 111.3 128.7 148.5Maize b/ $/mt 259.0 244.7 168.4 166.9 176.0 168.5 179.9 179.5
Rice, Thailand, 35% $/mt n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Sorghum $/mt 246.9 214.7 151.0 145.3 148.1 154.1 160.1 130.0
Wheat, US, HRW b/ $/mt 346.5 317.7 228.1 231.6 250.5 234.2 262.3 255.1
Wheat US SRW $/mt 277.8 241.5 182.7 187.4 195.6 182.6 202.5 201.7Other Food
Bananas EU $/mt 1,263 1,123 944 1,142 1,280 1,292 1,286 1,262
Fishmeal $/mt 1,185 1,198 1,023 1,013 1,096 1,040 1,103 1,146
Meat, beef b/ /kg 332.7 372.4 268.0 245.2 262.8 255.5 263.7 269.2
Meat, chicken b/ /kg 167.9 177.1 174.7 173.5 174.1 171.2 174.5 176.7
Meat, sheep /kg 493.2 477.3 410.0 378.5 428.8 404.4 427.7 454.4
Oranges b/ $/mt 1,322 1,163 842 799 864 905 888 798
Shrimp, Mexico b/ /kg 1,109 1,048 1,014 976 970 970 970 970
Sugar EU domestic b/ /kg 77.59 74.70 51.97 51.44 53.75 52.09 53.84 55.34
Sugar, world b/ /kg 27.01 31.14 26.28 28.85 33.89 30.09 35.36 36.22
Raw Materials Logs, Cameroon $/cum 554.4 548.5 473.8 426.8 394.6 382.5 395.4 406.0
Plywood /sheets 647.3 648.6 645.5 572.8 565.5 567.7 565.9 562.7
Sawnwood, Cameroon $/cum 1,052.3 974.5 770.8 689.2 721.4 684.3 717.6 762.5
Cotton Memphis /kg 171.6 170.0 130.1 129.8 142.4 135.6 150.2 141.4
Rubber RSS1, US /kg 311.7 329.1 202.8 165.8 187.0 183.6 189.8 187.6
FertilizersDAP b/ $/mt 1,191.6 1,153.7 663.3 362.2 303.6 335.4 297.5 277.8
Phosphate rock b/ $/mt 367.5 409.2 371.3 193.3 113.3 125.5 117.5 96.9
Potassium chloride b/ $/mt 511.1 635.0 766.7 865.2 726.7 745.0 717.5 717.5
Urea b/ $/mt 575.7 745.4 292.2 267.3 241.1 245.2 240.8 237.4
Metals and Minerals
Aluminum b/ $/mt 2,940 2,787 1,821 1,360 1,485 1,421 1,460 1,574
Copper b/ $/mt 8,443 7,680 3,905 3,428 4,663 4,407 4,569 5,014
Gold $/toz 896 870 795 909 922 890 929 946
Iron ore b/ /dmtu 140.6 140.6 140.6 101.0 101.0 101.0 101.0 101.0
Lead b/ /kg 230.7 191.2 124.5 115.7 149.9 138.3 144.0 167.4
Nickel b/ $/mt 25,682 18,96110,84
310,47
112,92
0 11,16612,63
5 14,960
Silver /toz 1,720 1,495 1,020 1,265 1,376 1,252 1,411 1,466
Steel cr coilsheet c/ $/mt 900 1,100 1,100 1,033 700 700 700 700
Steel, rebar c/ $/mt 838 934 630 473 450 425 450 475
Steel wire rod c/ $/mt 950 1,135 1,200 1,200 1,007 1,100 1,020 900
Tin b/ /kg 2,265 2,051 1,310 1,103 1,351 1,174 1,379 1,499
Zinc b/ /kg 211.3 177.0 118.5 117.2 147.3 137.9 148.4 155.7
Source: World Bank Pink Sheet July 2009
23
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
24/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
2. Current State of the Gambian Economy2.1 Overall and Sectoral GDP Growth Rates
The sharp decline in global economic activity had also adverse impact on the Gambianeconomy in 2008 leading to decline of exports and remittances and decline ofmanufacturing production and wholesale and retail trade.
However, thanks to bumper crops contributed by favorable monsoon at home and highinternational prices of food grains, and very good performance by electricity, telecom andfinancial sectors, the real GDP growth at constant 2004 factor cost improved from 6.1%in 2007 to 7.2% in 2008 (Table-2.1 and Figure-2.1).
Figure 2.1 Trends of Sectoral Growth Rates 1998-2009
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Year 1998-2009
GrowthRate(%)
GDP Agriculture Industry Services
24
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
25/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
As per the Provisional Estimates of the GBOS, the 7.2% growth in real GDP in 2008 wassupported by a spectacular growth of 28.4% in agriculture value added and a marginalgrowth of 0.7% by industry while services value added declined by (-) 0.6% due to poorperformance by trade and public administration.
Share of agriculture increased from 26.3 percent in 2007 to 31.5 percent in 2008, whileshare of industry declined from 15.1 percent in 2007 to 14.2 percent in 2008 and shareof services declined from 58.6 percent in 2007 to 54.3 percent in 2008. Increase ofagricultural share was contributed by increase in share of crops, while decline ofservices share was mainly due to decline of share of wholesale and retail trade.
Agriculture is expected to perform well in 2009, but due to higher base in 2008 theagricultural growth will be moderate in 2009. It is projected that real GDP growth rate in2009 is likely to be in the range of 3.6% to 4.5% aided by 4% to 6% growth inagriculture, 2.6% growth in industry and 2.4% to 4.4% growth in services.
However, donors commitment to provide financial support to Gambia under PRGF andto help Gambia to mitigate adverse impact might boost both consumer spending andinvestment and might enhance economic growth further.
Table-2.1: Sectoral Growth Rates and Shares in GDP in the Gambia in 2005-2009 (in %)Sectoral GDP Growth Rates
(in percentage)Sectoral Shares in GDP
(in percentage)Items 2006
Actual2007
Actual2008
Actual2009Proj.
2009IMF-Proj
2006Actual
2007Actual
2008Actual
2009Proj.
GDP at 2004 FC 6.6 6.1 7.2 4.5 3.6 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Agriculture and allied 3.9 3.9 28.4 6.0 4.0 26.9 26.3 31.5 32.0
-- Crops 4.1 4.3 45.7 7.4 4.0 16.0 15.7 21.3 21.9
-- Livestock 3.0 4.0 3.0 3.1 4.0 8.5 8.4 8.0 7.9
-- Forestry 3.0 -4.0 1.0 2.7 3.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
-- Fishing 7.3 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6
Industry 18.5 -3.1 0.7 2.6 2.6 16.6 15.1 14.2 13.8-- Mining and quarrying 7.7 6.9 6.0 4.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
-- Manufacturing -0.5 1.4 -2.5 2.0 4.0 5.6 5.3 4.8 4.5
-- Electricity, gas, water 6.0 17.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0
-- Construction 40.0 -9.8 0.0 5.0 5.0 8.6 7.3 6.8 6.6
Services 5.7 10.4 -0.6 4.4 2.4 56.4 58.6 54.3 54.2-- Wholesale/retail trade -1.5 7.1 -12.9 1.0 2.7 24.5 24.6 20.0 18.8
-- Hotels/ restaurants 0.9 1.7 3.0 -3.0 -10.0 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3
-- Transport / storage 5.7 8.5 6.0 4.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6
-- Telecom18.0 25.0 10.0 10.0 4.0 9.4 11.1 11.4
12.0
-- Financial 18.2 12.8 14.5 12.0 1.0 8.2 8.7 9.3 10.0-- Real est., business 6.9 3.1 3.0 4.1 1.0 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4-- Public administration 0.0 8.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9-- Other service 11.1 4.5 2.4 3.1 3.0
2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2
Source: Gambian Bureau of Statistics (GBOS) for the years 2006-2008 and projections for 2009 by theMacroeconomic Advise and the IMF Mission to the Gambia in May 2009.
25
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
26/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
2.2 Growth Rates of Selected Indicators for Trade and Transport
Table 2.2 presents growth rates for selected indicators in transport and communications sectorsduring the years 2005 to 2008. It is evidenced by the table that the Gambian economy wasadversely affected to some extent by the global financial crisis and economic slowdown in 2008.However, there was mixed performance for the ports traffic.
(1) While the growth rate of ports cargo unloaded decelerated, that of ports cargo loadedand total cargo handled at the Banjul seaport improved in 2008 indicating someimprovements in re-exports.
(2) There were significant imports of rice, cement and petroleum products in 2008, whereassugar and vehicles imports declined and there were no imports of flour as a result ofbumper agricultural production at home.
(3) Both the cargo and passengers handled at the Banjul airport declined in 2008. Thetourist arrivals to the Gambia also declined in 2008.
(4) Growth rates of vehicles registered and fixed telephone connections deceleratedmarginally in 2008.
Table 2.2 Growth rates of selected indicators for transport and communications (%)
Items 2005 2006 2007 2008
(1) Ports cargo unloaded 4.4 2.7 11.8 9.5(2) Ports cargo loaded -11.6 41.1 -9.8 20.9(3) Total cargo handled at ports 2.8 6.0 9.3 10.6(4) Quantity of rice imports 53.3 -77.5 166.8 30.9(5) Quantity of flour imports 15.8 21.2 -10.9 -100.0(6) Quantity of sugar imports -37.1 -5.8 83.4 -10.8(7) Quantity of cement imports 31.9 -26.2 19.3 28.7(8) Quantity of POL imports -13.0 26.9 -8.2 6.5(9) Total cargo handled by air -25.7 14.0 -31.1 -3.2(10)Total mail handled by air -1.8 -13.9 65.6 -53.8(11)Total Air flights -8.2 7.2 -6.4 -5.4(12)Arriving passengers -0.3 14.7 19.0 -21.9(13)Originating passengers 6.2 3.3 14.8 -15.7(14)Total air passengers 3.0 8.7 16.9 -18.9(15)Total tourist arrivals 19.8 15.7 14.3 -5.0
(16)Vehicles imported -18.6 480.5 18.4 -27.0(17)Total licensed vehicles 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.5(18)Fixed telephone subscribers 4.8 20.5 4.8 4.5
Source: Gambian Bureau of Statistics (GBOS)
2.3 Consumer Price Index and Inflation
26
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
27/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
As measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), annual point-to-point CPI inflationaccelerated significantly from 2.2% in June 2008 to 5.4% in June 2009, and the 12-month average inflation rate accelerated to 6.1% in June 2009 from 4.6% a year ago.
Food and drinks (with weights of 55.2% in overall CPI) recorded average inflation of6.5% in June 2009, up from 2.6% a year ago, and contributed 71.2% to overall inflationin June 2009.
Non-food items (with weights of 44.8% in overall CPI) recorded annual inflation of 3.9%in June 2009 compared to 1.8% a year ago and contributed 28.8% to inflation.
Among other groups, in June 2009, clothing and textiles recorded annual inflation of 4%,housing and utilities 5.1%, restaurants and hotels 5.9% and miscellaneous goods andservices 10.9%.
Table-2.3 CPI Inflation Rates in June 2009 (in percentage)
Items WeightsWi (%)
June-2008Index
June-2009Index
Inflation(%)
Wi (CPIi1CPIi0)
Contribution3 (%)
Overall 100.0 114.48 120.61 5.4 597.4 100.0Food 55.2 118.17 125.87 6.5 425.1 71.2Tobacco 0.7 104.64 106.16 1.5 1.1 0.2Clothing 11.3 107.10 111.35 4.0 47.9 8.0Utilities 3.4 116.38 122.3 5.1 20.1 3.4Furnishing 5.2 112.13 115.11 2.7 15.6 2.6Health 1.0 101.10 101.78 0.7 0.7 0.1Transport 4.4 118.87 119.77 0.8 4.0 0.7Telecom 3.0 101.55 101.97 0.4 1.2 0.2
Recreation 8.0 104.13 104.84 0.7 5.7 1.0Education 1.5 101.87 102.25 0.4 0.6 0.1Hotels 0.4 110.10 116.58 5.9 2.3 0.4Misc. 5.9 113.59 125.93 10.9 73.2 12.2non-food 44.8 109.99 114.23 3.9 189.9 28.8
Source of basic data: Gambian Bureau of Statistics (GBOS).
3Contribution of an item to overall inflation is estimated by the following formula:
Contribution of Item (i) = W i (CPIi1 CPIi0) / Wi (CPIi1 CPIi0) expressed as a percentage.where CPIi1 = Consumer Price Index for Item (i) in the current period
CPIi0 = Consumer Price Index for Item (i) in the previous period
Wi = Weights for Item (i) and
W = Total weights = Wi
For example, contribution of food is estimated as 100 X 425.1 / 597.4 = 71.2%.
27
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
28/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
28
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
29/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
2.4Factors affecting inflation and Anti-inflationary Measures
Due to combined result of various fiscal and monetary measures undertaken by thegovernment and the Central Bank of Gambia, the 12-month average CPI inflation ratemoderated to 4.5% in 2008, compared to 5.4% in 2007, despite a significant rise ofinternational prices of food and petroleum products and substantial increase of salariesof civil services at home in 2008.
Hardening of international prices of food products and petroleum oil, and disruptions in
the supply of foodstuffs from the neighboring countries put pressures on consumerprices in the Gambia since 2007.
Government responded by reducing the sales tax on rice imports from 15% to 5% in July2007 and eliminating it altogether in May 2008.
To compensate for revenue loss, the authorities increased other taxes (on car parts andused vehicles). Pump prices of petroleum products were increased in May 2008 by 10
24% to remove an implicit budget subsidy that had emerged in the preceding monthsand to bring them in line with import costs.
To check effective demand and inflationary pressures on the economy the
CBG raised the bank rate from 9% to 10% in June 2007 and raised itspolicy rate (rediscount rate) from 14% to 15% in June 2007 and further to 16% inOctober 2008.
In March 2008, in response to tight monetary conditions and against a
backdrop of falling inflation, the CBG reduced the statutory minimum reserverequirement of banks from 16% to 14%.
Appreciation of the dalasi helped cushion the impact on inflation to some extent in 2008,but this exchange rate advantage has been lost in 2009 due to Dalasi depreciation.
29
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
30/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
CPI Inflation in Gambia (%)
200620072008
2009
Jan4.02.05.17.0
Feb2.82.1
5.07.0
Mar3.84.23.16.7
Apr2.7
6.31.46.3
May2.76.61.65.9
Jun2.26.42.2
5.4
July1.56.33.8
30
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
31/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
31
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
32/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
2.5 Projection of CPI inflation during June-December 2009
We have made two alternative projections of inflation rates during the remainder of the year, onthe basis of the following assumptions:
(1) Alternative-1: It is assumed that the CPI variation for a month over the previous monthin 2009 will be the average CPI variation for the month over the previous month in lasttwo years (2008 and 2007). Thus, July 2009 CPI is estimated by the following formula:
Projected CPI for July 2009 = June 2009 CPI + (July 2008 CPI + July 2007 CPI June 2008CPI June 2007 CPI)/ 2. CPI for the subsequent months is projected by the similar formula.
(2) Alternative-2: It is assumed that the variation of CPI for a month over the previousmonth in 2009 will be the same as that for the respective month over the previous monthin 2008. For example, CPI for July 2009 is estimated by the following formula:
Projected CPI for July 2009 = Actual CPI for June 2009 + (July 2008 CPI June 2008 CPI). CPI
for the subsequent months is projected by the similar formula.(3) Alternative-3: Average of inflation rates underAlternatives 1 and 2.
Results are presented in Table 2.5 which indicates that inflation is expected to deceleratecontinuously during the remaining months of the year 2009 and the year-end inflation isexpected to range around 4 to 5 percent.
Table-2.5: Projections of CPI inflation during June-December 2009 (in percentage)2007 2008 2009-
Alt12009-Alt2
2007 2008 2009-Alt1
2009-Alt2
Ave-rage
Jan 106.86 112.31 120.1
3
120.1
3
2.0 5.1 7.0 7.0 7.0
Feb 107.01 112.34 120.25
120.25
2.1 5.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
Mar 109.36 112.73 120.30
120.30
4.2 3.1 6.7 6.7 6.7
Apr 111.64 113.21 120.36 120.36 6.3 1.4 6.3 6.3 6.3May 112.0
5113.8
3
120.51 120.51 6.6 1.6 5.9 5.9 5.9
Jun 111.98
114.48
120.61 120.61 6.4 2.2 5.4 5.4 5.4
July 111.95 116.21 121.46 122.34 6.3 3.8 4.5 5.3 4.9Aug 112.09 117.65 122.25 123.78 6.4 5.0 3.9 5.2
4.6Sep 111.86 118.96 122.79 125.09 6.0 6.3 3.2 5.2 4.2Oct 111.95 119.29 123.00 125.42 6.0 6.6 3.1 5.1 4.1
Nov 112.13 119.54 123.22 125.67 6.0 6.6 3.1 5.1 4.1
Dec 112.26 119.93 123.48 126.06 6.0 6.8 3.0 5.1 4.0
Q1 107.7 112.5 120.2 120.2 2.8 4.4 6.9 6.9 6.9
Q2 111.9 113.8 120.5 120.5 6.4 1.7 5.8 5.8 5.8
Q3 112.0 117.6 122.2 123.7 6.2 5.0 3.9 5.2 4.5
32
-
8/14/2019 Gambia Monthly Eco Bulletin July 2009- Part One
33/33
The Gambia Monthly Economic Bulletin- July 2009
Q4 112.1 119.6 123.2 125.7 6.0 6.7 3.0 5.1 4.1