THE PEACEFULLY OR A THREAT?

Communist revolution under

Mao Zedong.

From revolution to reform

The reformation

phase

Mid 20th century

1950 – 1976

1976-present

(Jaggi et al, 1996)

2

3

BEHIND THE

Realist

Every nation strive for power

Rise of China- dangerous- disturb

international balance of power

Liberals

Behavior of China can be modified

By its integration into world markets and spreading of

democratic principles

Constructivist

Impact of China rise depends on how China see itself

Whether it can act as a normal member

of the world community

P e a c e f u l P o l i c y

Appear on international prominence as a

responsible, peaceable, and nonthreatening

global power

‘Peaceful rise of China

is possible’

(Buzan, 2010)

‘Can China rise

peacefully? My answer

is NO’

(Mearsheimer, 2006)

VS

Introduced under the Zheng Bijian and Hu Jintao

administration in 2003

4

.

Politic

Economy

Social

Technology

PEACEFUL. Why? It is

Various unique diplomatic medium. E.g. Panda

Diplomacy & Pingpong Diplomacy.

Documentary „The Rise of Great Nation‟ .

The gist - strength of a nation rely on the

economy, not the empire or war.

Assist in stabilizing

the global financial

system during

financial crisis in 1997

and 1998.

Transformation of technology-

expansion of internet (computer

networking, software,internet

protocol)

5

THREAT. Why? It is a

Implication of hegemony

theory

Civil-Military gap Japan‟s and Korea‟s perception

South China Sea dispute Proponents of China Threat Theory 6

China‟s very own version of the Monroe Doctrine

American-led balancing coalition to check China‟s rise

Barrack Obama – Pivoting to Asia

The Security Dilemma

The PRC policy toward Taiwan (Anti-Secession Law)

Civil – Military gap

Incendiary military actions e.g. missile tests,

military aircraft collision, anti-satellite test

Aggressive statements 7

HEGEMONY theory

Implication of

Theory Of Great Power Politics Theory’s Application to the U.S.A

foreign policy

Goals to Survive

Mightiest state‟s attempt to establish

hegemony

Assumptions

Anarchy + Offensive military +

Uncertain intentions + Principal goal –

to survive+ States as rational actors

3 forms of behaviour

Fear + Self- Help + Power Seeking

“Manifest Destiny”

Expansionist power

Monroe Doctrine

Defeated and dismantled aspiring

hegemons

“Defense Guidance” of 1992

- Declare as most powerful state in

the world

“National Security Strategy” of

2002

- Check on the rising powers and

maintain commanding positions

H o w w o u l d C h i n a r e a c t ? ?

“[Interference of USA in a Taiwan scenario]

…Americans will have to be prepared that

hundreds of cities will be destroyed by the

Chinese”

General Zhu Chenghu

“Taiwan independence means war.”

Wang Zaixi,

Taiwan Affairs Office

China‟s various internal crisis

Ultimate ambition

Increase military spending

Proponents

Crises :

Food , rural, population , resources

and environment –

heavy burden to the entire world.

Goal of achieving

paramount status in Asia.

Developing long-range

missiles and power-

projection capabilities, and

trying to purchase an

aircraft carrier.

China Threat Theory

8

Sovereignty over the Spratly & Paracel

islands has been hotly contested by five

nations including China (Shen, 2002).

China‟s control over South China Sea is

perceived as a way to achieve a position of

great power through resources exploitation

(Yee, 2011).

China lays claim to almost all of the entire

South China Sea, believed to be rich with

minerals and oil-and-gas deposits (Reuters,

2014) .

Dispute in South China Sea

9

10

CONCLUSION

„

In our point of view, the rise of China is NOT A PEACEFUL one as per

claimed by its government and politicians. It seems that China is the

only party who claimed that they are peaceful, and not being backed by

others.

11

R E F E R E N C E

Buzan, B. (2010). China in International Society: Is Peaceful Rise Possible? The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 5-36.

Gautam Jaggi, M. R. (1996). China's Economic Reforms: Chronology and Reforms. Institute for International Economics.

Mersheimer, J. J. (April 2006). China's Unpeaceful Rise. Current History, 160-162.

Teba, B. A. (2002). Is the Rise of China is Security Threat? Peking University.

News World. (2014). China builds an island in disputed sea. Retrieved from http://www.melfortjournal.com/2014/11/26/china-

builds-an-island-in-disputed-sea on 7 January 2015

Shen, J. (2002). China's Sovereignty over the South China Sea Islands: A Historical Perspective. Chinese Journal of International Law.

Suettinger, R. L. (n.d.). The Rise and Descent of “Peaceful Rise”. China Leadership Monitor

Yee, A. (2011). Maritime Territorial Disputes in East Asia: A Comparative Analysis of the South China Sea and the East China Sea.

Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 40, 2, 165-193.

A. Scobell (2009). Is There a Civil-Military Gap in China's Peaceful Rise? retrieved

from http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/09summer/scobell.pdf

John J. Mearsheimer (2004). Why China's Rise Will Not Be Peaceful retrieved from

mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/A0034b.pdf

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