FY14 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee November 4 , 2013

FY14 Budget and Caseload Update

Fiscal Committee

November 4, 2013

FY14 September Caseload Review

Waitlist Remediation Initiative Status: The CCRRs began placing children in the Waitlist remediation account in October. The CCRRs have until December 20, 2013 to place all the vouchers allocated to them.

As of last week, four weeks into the twelve week initiative, when the benchmark was 33%, the CCRRs had successfully placed 59% of their allocation and are at on their respective allotments.

One CCRR has filled all of their allotment and has started filling the additional attrition backfill allotment in the Income Eligible 3000-4060 account. Voucher Caseload in September decreased by 1,494 of which 1,321 are school age children.

Approximately 47% (1,115) of the 2,367 placements in the Waitlist Remediation account will be filled and billed for service month October 2013. Program setting and age group mix may allow for future allotments (200).

Income Eligible: Based on the following assumptions, we are currently projecting utilizing nearly the entire 3000-4060 and 3000-4070 appropriations:

After September billing (the first quarter of FY14), there is a $2.3M IE surplus. This is offset by a $2.3M deficit in DTA.

Income Eligible, Teen, and Homeless contract forecasted expenditures are held at the contract maximum obligation. Underutilization will be determined this month in order to fund the Income Eligible flex pool. Once completed the forecast will be revised.

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FY14 September Caseload Review

DTA-Related Caseload: After three months of actual numbers EEC is forecasting a deficit of $2.3M, a slight decrease from the previous month’s projected deficiency of $2.4M. September actual caseload billing reflects a net decrease (426) in caseload when compared to August. School Age caseload dropped by 840 (13.96% decrease), but was somewhat offset by an increase in Infants (132), Toddlers(197), and Pre-School (85). This translates to a $563K reduction to the forecast. For referencing purposes, last fiscal year for the same reporting period the school age caseload dropped by 9.67%; the three year historical average is 8.66%. FY14 change is 4%-5% higher than FY13 and the three year historical trend.

Supportive Caseload: With three months of actual numbers, EEC continues to

forecast expenditures to the appropriation of $77M. The recently lifted local expansion limits continue to allow for more children to be served in areas where there is the capacity and the need. The Supportive account shows school age children decreased (210 or 11.75%), but the Infants, Toddlers, and Pre-school all increased, 78 or 13.78%, 93 or 6.8%, and 109 or 5.03% respectively. The net change is an increase to caseload (70).

FY14 Consolidated Net Increase: EEC is about to receive $11.5M as part of the Consolidated Net Surplus (CNS) to dedicate to an across the board rate increase for all center based, family child care providers, and family child care systems. This is roughly a raise of $.78 on the daily rate. The rate increase will be retroactive to July 1, 2013.

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FY14 Caseload Overview SummaryAs of September 2013

4

FY14 Caseload

Spending - September

FY14 Budget YTD Actuals/

Forecast

Variance Forecast vs.

Budget

Income Eligible Contract/Flex 127,752,807$ 121,800,781$ 5,952,026$ Voucher 86,068,659$ 89,702,610$ (3,633,951)$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

222,840,742$ 220,522,667$ 2,318,075$ DTA Voucher 128,063,499$ 130,377,068$ (2,313,569)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,323,780$ 76,327,935$ (4,155)$ Voucher 67,665$ 63,486$ 4,179$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

76,991,445$ 76,991,421$ 24$ Total 427,895,686$ 427,891,156$ 4,530$

FY14 Caseload Overview SummaryPrior Month

5

FY14 Caseload

Spending - August

FY14 Budget YTD Actuals/

Forecast

Variance Forecast vs.

Budget

Income Eligible Contract/Flex 127,752,807$ 122,249,794$ 5,503,013$ Voucher 86,068,659$ 86,578,848$ (510,189)$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

222,840,742$ 217,847,918$ 4,992,824$ DTA Voucher 128,063,499$ 130,468,528$ (2,405,029)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,323,780$ 76,325,377$ (1,597)$ Voucher 67,665$ 65,115$ 2,550$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

76,991,445$ 76,990,492$ 953$ Total 427,895,686$ 425,306,938$ 2,588,748$

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FY 2013 Income Eligible(3000-4060)

Month Prior Month

Caseload Forecast

Current Month

Caseload Forecast*

VariancePrior Month

Forecast Projection

2014 Actual**/Forecast

Expenditures

Mth to Mth Forecast Change

Jun-12 32,173 32,173 N/A

Jun-13 30,749 30,749 N/A

Jul-13 30,480 30,604 124 18,555,309$ 18,637,200$ (81,890)$

Aug-13 30,494 30,451 (43) 17,160,058$ 17,370,375$ (292,207)$

Sep-13 29,411 29,398 (12) 16,273,583$ 14,986,108$ 995,268$

Oct-13 29,705 29,341 (364) 18,380,621$ 18,077,907$ 1,297,981$

Nov-13 29,602 30,146 544 16,731,391$ 17,189,891$ 839,481$

Dec-13 29,569 30,104 535 17,548,108$ 17,993,289$ 394,300$

Jan-14 29,908 30,440 532 18,319,170$ 18,962,996$ (249,525)$

Feb-14 29,882 30,406 524 16,076,558$ 16,564,227$ (737,195)$

Mar-14 29,806 30,326 520 16,829,886$ 17,235,549$ (1,142,858)$

Apr-14 30,163 30,678 516 17,597,774$ 18,127,053$ (1,672,137)$

May-14 30,195 30,712 517 17,510,449$ 18,031,730$ (2,193,419)$

Jun-14 30,314 30,827 513 17,845,735$ 18,327,065$ (2,674,749)$

GRANTS 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$

TOTAL 217,847,918$ 220,522,667$

FY14 Appropriation 222,840,742

Surplus/Deficiency 2,318,075

- Blue: FY14 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures

* Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month and is as of the date the forecast was prepared.

- Please note a child could receive multiple services.

- Caseload data is updated each reporting month for prior period adjustments and late billing.

- Current Reporting month include late billing projections that will be billed and paid in the next billing cycle.

For example September includes late billingprojection that will be projected to be billed in October.

** Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast was prepared and may include late billing.

- Expenditures is updated each reporting month for prior period adjustments and late billing.

Income Eligible SFY14 Forecast as of September Actuals

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FY 2013 Waitlist Remediation(3000-4070)

Month Prior Month

Caseload Forecast

Current Month

Caseload Forecast*

VariancePrior Month

Forecast Projection


Expenditures


Jul-13 N/A N/A N/A

Aug-13 N/A N/A N/A

Sep-13 N/A N/A N/A

Oct-13 2,367 1,115 1,252 1,725,990$ 813,192$ 912,799$

Nov-13 2,367 2,367 0 1,572,540$ 1,572,540$ 912,799$

Dec-13 2,367 2,567 (200) 1,641,195$ 1,776,590$ 777,404$

Jan-14 2,367 2,567 (200) 1,733,406$ 1,876,443$ 634,366$

Feb-14 2,367 2,567 (200) 1,521,232$ 1,646,789$ 508,810$

Mar-14 2,367 2,567 (200) 1,597,021$ 1,728,832$ 376,998$

Apr-14 2,367 2,567 (200) 1,558,175$ 1,686,555$ 248,618$

May-14 2,367 2,567 (200) 1,518,668$ 1,643,710$ 123,576$

Jun-14 2,367 2,567 (200) 1,431,219$ 1,549,021$ 5,774$

CCCRR Admin. 700,000$ 700,000$

TOTAL 14,999,446$ 14,993,672$

FY14 Appropriation 15,000,000

Surplus/Deficiency 6,328






- Expenditures is updated each reporting month for prior period adjustments and late billing.

- Additional savings may be realised by parent fees.

SFY14 Forecast Waitlist Remediation

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FY 2014 DTA (3000-4050)

Month Prior Month

Caseload Forecast

Current Month

Caseload Forecast*

VariancePrior Month

Forecast Projection


Expenditures


Jun-12 16,913 16,913 N/A

Jun-13 16,422 16,422 N/A

Jul-13 16,227 16,301 74 11,376,108$ 11,415,267$ 39,159$

Aug-13 16,268 16,079 (189) 10,593,842$ 10,741,199$ 186,516$

Sep-13 16,044 16,290 246 10,232,660$ 9,680,897$ (365,248)$

Oct-13 16,535 16,523 (12) 10,451,118$ 11,387,990$ 571,625$

Nov-13 16,659 16,728 69 11,332,804$ 10,826,130$ 64,950$

Dec-13 16,471 16,542 72 11,113,173$ 11,095,091$ 46,868$

Jan-14 16,648 16,379 (269) 10,614,789$ 11,102,202$ 534,281$

Feb-14 16,539 16,817 278 10,583,946$ 10,086,074$ 36,410$

Mar-14 16,731 16,819 88 11,250,500$ 10,670,194$ (543,897)$

Apr-14 17,026 16,806 (220) 10,802,649$ 11,363,000$ 16,454$

May-14 16,881 17,055 174 11,561,150$ 11,058,637$ (486,058)$

Jun-14 16,082 16,384 302 10,555,789$ 10,950,386$ (91,460)$

TOTAL 130,468,528$ 130,377,068$

128,063,499$

(2,313,569)$





- Current Reporting month include late billing projections that will be billed and paid in the next billing cycle.

For example September includes late billingprojection that will be projected to be billed in October.


- Expenditures are updated each reporting month for prior period adjustments and late billing.

DTA SFY14 Forecast as of September Actuals

FY14 Appropriation

Surplus/Deficiency

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Month

Prior Month

Caseload Forecast

Current Month Caseload Forecast*

VariancePrior Month

Forecast Projection


Expenditures


Jun-12 5,979 5,979 N/A

Jun-13 5,651 5,651 N/A

Jul-13 5,777 5,801 24 6,308,364$ 6,317,378$ 9,014$

Aug-13 5,793 5,823 30 6,176,418$ 6,174,442$ 7,037$

Sep-13 6,019 5,893 (126) 5,952,045$ 5,726,816$ (218,192)$

Oct-13 5,850 5,807 (43) 6,459,243$ 6,485,778$ (191,657)$

Nov-13 6,120 5,913 (207) 6,308,714$ 6,188,227$ (312,144)$

Dec-13 5,875 5,930 55 6,422,154$ 6,566,087$ (168,211)$

Jan-14 6,169 5,970 (199) 6,962,076$ 6,815,253$ (315,034)$

Feb-14 5,935 6,023 88 5,864,403$ 6,016,379$ (163,058)$

Mar-14 6,228 6,075 (153) 6,502,507$ 6,400,809$ (264,756)$

Apr-14 5,934 6,067 133 6,443,346$ 6,642,343$ (65,759)$

May-14 6,253 6,089 (164) 6,721,137$ 6,585,781$ (201,115)$

Jun-14 6,057 6,208 151 6,270,085$ 6,472,129$ 929$

GRANTS 600,000$ 600,000$

TOTAL 76,990,492$ 76,991,421$

76,991,445$

24$






- Expenditures are updated each reporting month for prior period adjustments and late billing.

Supportive SFY14 Forecast as of September Actuals

FY14 Appropriation

Surplus/Deficiency

FY 2013 Supportive (3000-3050)

IE, Waitlist, Remediation, & CCRRs

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The Fiscal Year 2014 State Budget funded a new account (3000-4070) at $15M to reduce the waitlist for income-eligible early education and care programs.

The legislature also added $8.5M to the Income Eligible Account (3000-4060) using unspent FY13 funds.

ANF and the Governor's office approved EEC's plan for the expenditure of these funds beginning October 1, 2013.

Based on the average cost per child in the IE program, EEC estimates we can serve no fewer than 3,200 additional children in Fiscal Year 2014.

These children will receive vouchers; all vouchers are being issued by the CCRRs.

The allocation to each CCRR was proportionally distributed by region in relation to the number of children on the waitlist by region. For example, if we had 1000 vouchers to distribute and Region 1 had 2000 children on the waitlist and the waitlist total was 8000, Region 1 received 250 vouchers or 25%.

CCRRs must offer vouchers to children from the EEC waitlist on a first come, first serve basis to eligible families that have submitted complete documentation.

The CCRRs have until December 20 to place all the vouchers allocated to them. As of last week, four weeks into the twelve week initiative, when the benchmark

was 33%, they had successfully placed 59% of their allocation.

FY13/14 Caseload By Account

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IE July August September October November December January February March April May June Average

FY2013 31,355 31,518 30,603 29,874 29,842 29,852 30,012 30,092 30,100 30,264 30,205 29,970 30,307

FY2014 30,604 30,451 29,177 30,077

DTA July August September October November December January February March April May June Average

FY2013 16,299 16,382 16,347 16,823 16,987 16,843 16,741 16,820 17,061 17,111 16,876 16,290 16,715

FY2014 16,301 16,079 15,653 16,011

SUPP July August September October November December January February March April May June Average

FY2013 5,959 5,903 5,751 5,590 5,536 5,551 5,657 5,706 5,670 5,627 5,577 5,617 5,679

FY2014 5,801 5,823 5,893 5,839

Total July August September October November December January February March April May June Average

FY2013 53,613 53,803 52,701 52,287 52,365 52,246 52,410 52,618 52,831 53,002 52,658 51,877 52,701

FY2014 52,706 52,353 50,723 - - - - - - - - - 51,927

FY13/14 IE Contract Slots - Regular and Flex

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Data Report created on October 30, 2013

Total Awarded Slots is 14,772 and Allowable Flex Slots is 848. 322.5 of the 355 additional contract slots awarded have been filled. 23 Vendors representing 25 contracts are Over 5% Flex **No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.Total awarded slots for Homeless is 593 and Teen 519. - Homeless: filled 588, open 106 - Teen: filled 405, open 114

Report Date Regular Filled Regular Open Flex Filled Flex Open Flex - Over 5% Flex - Under 5%10/30/2013 12,764.0 2,008.0 168.5 770.5 (72.0) 842.5 9/26/2013 12,438.0 2,361.0 171.0 680.5 (71.5) 752.0 8/31/2013 12,190.0 2,610.0 106.0 745.0 (41.5) 786.5 7/31/2013 13,052.0 1,748.0 145.0 706.5 (71.5) 778.0 5/27/2013 13,395.0 1,404.0 201.5 649.5 (96.5) 746.0 4/29/2013 13,567.0 1,267.0 209.5 647.5 (100.0) 747.5 3/28/2013 13,587.0 1,256.0 210.0 647.0 (99.5) 746.5 2/28/2013 13,195.5 1,292.5 213.5 643.5 (98.5) 742.0 1/31/2013 13,123.0 1,365.0 428.0 429.0 (289.0) 718.0 1/1/2013 12,783.5 1,706.5 400.0 457.0 (273.0) 730.0

11/28/2012 12,881.5 1,608.5 426.5 421.5 (289.0) 719.5 10/30/2012 12,751.5 1,738.5 427.0 430.5 (303.5) 725.0

Archived and Reactivated Children on Waitlist

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Data Report created on October 31, 2013Net change for number of children archived/reactivated in September was 1855

September total archived children: 1975 representing 1457 families.September total reactivated children: 120 representing 85 families.

** Note: User is defined as EEC, CCR&R or Contract ProviderJuly excludes 7/25/2013; significant auto-archiving occurred, archived children system: 12,789 and archived children user: 9896

Num

ber

of A

rchi

ved

and

R

eact

ivat

ed C

hild

ren

on W

aitli

st

Archived MonthArchived Children

SystemArchived Families

SystemArchived Children

User Archived Families

UserReactivated Children Reactivated Families

10/ 1/ 2013-10/ 30/ 2013 1,917 1,422 58 35 120 85

9/ 1/ 2013-9/ 30-2013 1,925 1,411 65 38 204 151

8/ 1/ 2013-8/ 31/ 2013 1,496 1,109 93 50 165 112

7/ 29/ 2013-7/ 31/ 2013 (excludes 7/ 25/ 13) 239 175 18 11 29 21

1,9

17

1,9

25

1,4

96

239

1,4

22

1,4

11

1,1

09

175

58

65

93

18

35

38

50

11

120

204

165

29

85

151

112

21

-

400

800

1,200

1,600 Archived Children Syste m

Archived Families System

Archived Children User

Archived Families User

Reactivated Children

Reactivated Families

Caseload Waitlist 11/2012 - 10/2013

14.

Data Report created on October 30, 2013** Excludes Unborn children, Children 13 or older, “0” zip codes and towns out of state

Priority11/30/12

Total12/31/12

Total01/31/13

Total02/28/13

Total3/28/13

Total4/30/13

Total5/28/13

Total6/30/13

Total7/31/2013

Total8/30/13

Total9/26/13

Total10/30/13

Total Chi ld of Foster Care 276 282 288 290 285 289 299 305 169 180 194 196 Chi ld of Homeless fami ly 520 536 558 566 576 591 609 641 454 458 487 479 Chi ld of Mi l i tary Personnel 101 105 116 116 123 117 90 91 68 44 43 49 Chi ld of Teen Parent 477 481 489 513 507 523 525 556 365 389 423 414 Chi ld with Specia l Needs 2,117 2,198 2,234 2,291 2,355 2,442 2,524 2,615 1,776 1,893 1,922 1,816 Continuity of Care: Prior Year Summer Only 120 135 149 161 164 167 173 177 139 151 163 157 Continuity of Care: Aging Out 409 411 402 398 399 404 414 416 205 248 274 253 Continuity of Care: Approved Break in Service 442 451 470 473 482 490 523 585 484 493 530 502 Continuity of Care: ARRA 146 149 148 146 141 142 143 141 51 54 60 52 Continuity of Care: Geographic Relocation 182 186 198 201 207 221 222 224 145 154 161 159 Continuity of Care: Homeless Contract 25 27 29 32 31 30 37 35 29 30 29 29 Continuity of Care: Supportive Referra l 269 279 288 296 308 324 352 371 256 265 284 280 Continuity of Care: Teen Parent Contract 32 32 28 27 28 28 29 30 16 18 22 24 Genera l Priori ty 39,470 40,431 41,722 42,588 43,315 44,861 45,970 47,737 32,881 34,266 35,725 34,708 Grandparent/Guardian Fami l ies 541 547 565 566 576 584 609 632 349 344 350 345 No Priori ty - Other Fami ly Member 282 295 314 327 338 363 393 422 357 381 411 401 Parent with Specia l Needs 805 806 805 807 807 823 840 837 436 424 426 381 Sibl ing: Contract 654 672 714 729 771 788 804 850 737 753 792 775 Sibl ing: Voucher 788 804 833 845 870 815 792 797 544 566 542 435 Summer only care 899 893 919 923 958 1,024 1,074 1,233 853 856 863 879 N/A 556 541 523 518 509 501 500 495 4 6 16 14

Grand Total 48,555 49,720 51,269 52,295 53,241 55,026 56,422 58,695 40,318 41,973 43,717 42,348

FY14 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee November 4 , 2013

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