FY13 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee April 1, 2013

FY13 Budget and Caseload Update

Fiscal CommitteeApril 1, 2013

FY13 Caseload Overview

Income Eligible: The Income Eligible account FY13 forecast is projecting a surplus of $11.7M which is approximately $2.3M less than last month’s projected surplus of $14.0M. Late billing for February is almost double the amount projected ($152K vs. $86K). Recalibrating the late billing projection increased the projected cost ($500K). Included in this month’s forecast is additional access for 739 children ($1.8M) from three priority populations on the waitlist. We opened access to 144 slots for homeless children and 625 vouchers for children of military families (deployed or active duty) and vouchers for siblings. Additional savings may be realized because of the various dates children start services.

DTA-Related Caseload: The forecasted deficit has increased to $6.5M, a increase of approximately $1.2M. The change in forecast is driven by late billing ($600K) and increase in caseload ($600K). Late billing for February was more than twice the amount projected ($222K vs. 100K). January caseload was reported last month at 16,196 after February billing, caseload for January increased by 443 to 16,510.

Supportive: The projected surplus of $2.3M is a $100k increase from the projected surplus last month of $2.2M.

Summary: The surplus in total changed from $10.7M to $7.6M. The primary factors driving the increase are the additional access for priority populations, late billing, and the increase in DTA caseload. Projections for late billing are based on the current month late billing and historical month to month fluctuations in SFY2012. Late billing had been trending down. The significant increase this month is projected for the remainder of the year until it can be determined if this increase was a one-time anomaly.

2

FY13 Caseload Overview SummaryAs of February 2013

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FY2013 Caseload Spending - February FY2013 Budget Forecast

Variance Forecast vs.

Budget Income Eligible Contract/Flex 134,436,467$ 123,843,323$ 10,593,144$ Voucher 88,414,709$ 87,259,027$ 1,155,682$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

231,870,452$ 220,121,627$ 11,748,825$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 132,037,424$ (6,541,684)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 74,312,240$ 2,318,635$ Voucher 100,000$ 124,158$ (24,158)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 75,036,398$ 2,294,477$ Total 434,697,067$ 427,195,448$ 7,501,619$

FY2013 Caseload Spending - J anuary FY2013 Budget Forecast

Variance Forecast vs. Budget

I ncome Eligible Contract/Flex 134,436,467$ 124,223,614$ 10,212,853$ Voucher 88,414,709$ 84,617,062$ 3,797,647$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

231,870,452$ 217,859,952$ 14,010,500$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 130,881,873$ (5,386,133)$


77,330,875$ 75,216,824$ 2,114,051$ Total 434,697,067$ 423,958,648$ 10,738,419$

FY13 Caseload Overview Summary

4

FY2013 Caseload Spending -December FY2013 Budget Forecast



231,870,452$ 218,805,924$ 13,064,528$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 131,311,150$ (5,815,410)$


77,330,875$ 74,792,010$ 2,538,865$ Total 434,697,067$ 424,909,084$ 9,787,983$

FY2013 Caseload Spending -November FY2013 Budget Forecast



231,870,452$ 219,156,568$ 12,713,884$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 131,467,835$ (5,972,095)$


77,330,875$ 74,537,577$ 2,793,298$ Total 434,697,067$ 425,161,980$ 9,535,087$


5

FY2013 Caseload Spending - October FY2013 Budget Forecast


Income Eligible Contract/Flex 134,436,467$ 125,370,240$ 9,066,227$ Voucher 88,414,709$ 85,661,580$ 2,753,129$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

231,870,452$ 220,051,097$ 11,819,355$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 132,243,742$ (6,748,002)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 74,710,829$ 1,920,046$ Voucher 100,000$ 87,795$ 12,205$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 75,398,623$ 1,932,252$ Total 434,697,067$ 427,693,462$ 7,003,605$

FY2013 Caseload Spending - September FY2013 Budget Forecast


Income Eligible Contract/Flex 134,436,467$ 125,545,863$ 8,890,604$ Voucher 88,414,709$ 85,644,765$ 2,769,944$ Grants 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ -$

231,870,452$ 220,209,904$ 11,660,548$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 129,037,458$ (3,541,718)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 75,999,574$ 631,301$ Voucher 100,000$ 135,320$ (35,320)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 76,734,894$ 595,981$ Total 434,697,067$ 425,982,255$ 8,714,812$


6

FY2013 Caseload Spending - August 2012 FY2013 Budget Forecast



231,870,452$ 221,125,321$ 10,745,131$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 129,038,794$ (3,543,054)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 76,637,299$ (6,424)$ Voucher 100,000$ 148,086$ (48,086)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 77,385,385$ (54,510)$ Total 434,697,067$ 427,549,500$ 7,147,567$

FY2013 Caseload Spending - J uly 2012 FY2013 Budget Forecast



231,870,452$ 217,712,159$ 14,158,293$ DTA *Voucher 125,495,740$ 128,621,652$ (3,125,912)$

Supportive Contract/Flex 76,630,875$ 77,047,992$ (417,117)$ Voucher 100,000$ 157,583$ (57,583)$ Grants 600,000$ 600,000$ -$

77,330,875$ 77,805,575$ (474,700)$ Total 434,697,067$ 424,139,386$ 10,557,681$

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FY 2013 Income Eligible(3000-4060)

Income Eligible SFY13 Forecast for February 2013

MonthCaseload Budget

Actual Caseload Variance

Budget Spending P lan P rojection

2013 Actual**/Forecast

Expenditures YTD VarianceJun-12 32,215 32,215 N/AJul-12 31,364 31,404 40 18,607,517$ 18,482,023$ 125,494$ Aug-12 31,325 31,569 244 18,902,260$ 18,941,451$ 86,303$ Sep-12 30,933 30,673 (260) 17,350,379$ 14,970,470$ 2,466,213$ Oct-12 30,457 29,901 (556) 17,632,030$ 17,697,489$ 2,400,754$ Nov-12 30,398 29,825 (573) 17,302,718$ 16,865,035$ 2,838,437$ Dec-12 30,237 29,809 (428) 16,902,323$ 16,131,862$ 3,608,898$ Jan-13 29,950 29,885 (65) 17,423,935$ 17,900,640$ 3,132,193$ Feb-13 30,048 29,693 (355) 16,954,176$ 15,619,131$ 4,467,238$ Mar-13 29,955 17,050,124$ 17,586,712$ 3,930,650$ Apr-13 29,788 17,311,495$ 18,831,454$ 2,410,691$ May-13 29,256 17,370,697$ 19,602,406$ 178,982$ Jun-13 29,924 17,487,919$ 18,473,679$ (806,778)$

GRANTS 9,019,276$ 9,019,276$ TOTAL 219,314,849$ 220,121,627$

231,870,452 231,870,452 12,555,603 11,748,825

- Blue : FY13 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures

* Budgeted caseload assumes access is closed (Vouchers) and terminations will be consistent with historical trend.

- Additional savings may be realised by parent fees.* Spending P lan P rojection is maximum obligation, flex , teen and homeless contracts. * Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. P lease note a child could receive multiple services.

* Caseload changes for a prior reporting month is driven by late billing.

Surplus/DeficiencyFY13 Appropriation

**2013 Actuals/Forecast include Infant/Toddler Increase P rojection - Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast was prepared and may include late billing.

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FY 2013 DTA Related(3000-4050)



Budget Spending P lan Projection


Expenditures

YTD Variance (Original Spending

P lan)Jun-12 16,920 16,920 N/AJul-12 16,019 16,298 279 10,717,525$ 11,015,064$ (297,539)$

Aug-12 16,060 16,380 320 11,233,530$ 11,427,767$ (491,775)$ Sep-12 16,419 16,346 (73) 9,986,720$ 9,452,972$ 41,973$ Oct-12 16,201 16,820 619 11,002,439$ 11,596,244$ (551,832)$ Nov-12 16,428 16,971 543 10,991,409$ 11,375,619$ (936,042)$ Dec-12 16,358 16,811 453 10,447,142$ 10,832,205$ (1,321,105)$ Jan-13 15,912 16,643 731 11,129,920$ 11,281,220$ (1,472,405)$ Feb-13 16,180 16,510 330 10,333,239$ 10,407,478$ (1,546,644)$ Mar-13 16,462 10,513,483$ 10,870,866$ (1,904,027)$ Apr-13 16,631 11,127,055$ 11,465,203$ (2,242,175)$ May-13 16,498 11,539,709$ 11,870,656$ (2,573,122)$ Jun-13 16,374 9,959,024$ 10,442,131$ (3,056,228)$

TOTAL 128,981,195$ 132,037,424$ 125,495,740$

(6,541,684)$


DTA SFY13 Forecast for February 2013

* Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. Please note a child could receive multiple services.

- Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast w as prepared and may include late billing. **2013 Actuals/Forecast include Infant/Toddler Increase Projection

- Blue: FY13 Actual/Forecast Expenditures

FY13 AppropriationSurplus/Deficiency

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Budget Spending

P lan Projection


Expenditures

YTD Variance (Original

Spending P lan)Jun-12 6,010 6,010 N/AJul-12 6,097 5,991 (106) 6,588,626$ 6,386,341$ 202,285$ Aug-12 6,071 5,961 (110) 6,865,945$ 6,514,398$ 553,832$ Sep-12 6,084 5,817 (267) 5,983,846$ 5,609,805$ 927,873$ Oct-12 6,084 5,648 (436) 6,876,242$ 6,284,024$ 1,520,092$ Nov-12 6,159 5,590 (569) 6,635,389$ 6,115,138$ 2,040,342$ Dec-12 6,188 5,595 (593) 6,321,780$ 5,999,750$ 2,362,373$ Jan-13 6,172 5,719 (453) 6,911,188$ 6,385,863$ 2,887,697$ Feb-13 6,216 5,738 (478) 6,341,848$ 5,932,267$ 3,297,278$ Mar-13 6,313 6,411,617$ 6,051,335$ 3,657,561$ Apr-13 6,314 6,717,704$ 6,344,873$ 4,030,392$ May-13 6,314 7,023,054$ 6,639,460$ 4,413,986$ Jun-13 6,541 6,562,792$ 6,173,144$ 4,803,634$

GRANTS 600,000$ 600,000$ TOTAL 79,840,032$ 75,036,398$

77,330,875$ 2,294,477$

- Blue : FY13 Actual/ Forecast Expenditures

**2013 Actuals/Forecast include Infant/Toddler Increase P rojection


SUPPORTIVE SFY13 Forecast for Febuary 2013

- Actual dollars represent expenditures billed and paid as of the date the forecast was prepared and may include late billing. * Actual caseload count is the count of services rendered for the reporting month. P lease note a child could receive multiple services.

FY13 AppropriationSurplus/Deficiency

FY 2013 Supportive (3000-3050)

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(Am

ount

in

Thou

sand

s)

FY2013 Income Eligible Total Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

Total Appropriation of $231.9M includes $9,019,276 for Grants and $600K Reserve for Late BillingFebruary 2013 Voucher Expenditures paid is $6,260,015Actual/Forecast includes projected cost for Infant Toddler Rate Increase

Gray : FY13 Appropriation (Vouchers, Contracts & Grants)

Blue: Actual/Forecast Expenditures

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun $-

$20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000

$100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 $220,000 $240,000

$19

,234

$38

,927

$54

,649

$73

,098

$10

1,98

9

$10

7,59

8

$12

6,25

0

$14

2,62

1

$16

0,95

9

$18

0,54

2

$20

0,89

6

$22

0,12

2

$19

,359

$39

,013

$57

,955

$77

,304

$96

,282

$11

4,81

8

$13

3,95

9

$15

2,54

6

$17

1,23

0

$19

0,21

7

$20

9,30

5

$23

1,87

0

Actual/Forecast FY13 Budget

FY2013 DTA Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

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(Am

ount

in

Thou

sand

s)


Gray : FY13 Appropriation


$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000

$100,000 $110,000 $120,000 $130,000 $140,000

$11

,015

$22

,443

$31

,896

$43

,492

$54

,868

$65

,700

$76

,981

$87

,389

$98

,259

$10

9,72

5

$12

1,59

5

$13

2,03

7

$10

,426

$21

,354

$31

,072

$41

,772

$52

,468

$62

,634

$73

,459

$83

,513

$93

,744

$10

4,57

4

$11

5,80

5

$12

5,49

6


FY2013 Supportive Caseload Actual/Forecast & Budgeted Expenditures

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(Am

ount

in

Thou

sand

s)


Gray : : FY13 Appropriation


$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

$90,000

$100,000

$6,

436

$13

,001

$18

,661

$24

,995

$31

,160

$37

,209

$43

,645

$49

,628

$55

,729

$62

,124

$68

,813

$75

,036

$6,

428

$13

,124

$18

,967

$25

,673

$32

,147

$38

,317

$45

,058

$51

,248

$57

,507

$64

,062

$70

,913

$77

,331


FY12/13 IE Contract Slots - Regular and Flex

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Total Awarded Slots is 14843 and Allowable Flex Slots is 85724 Vendors representing 26 contracts are Over 5% Flex (99.5)

301 of the 355 additional contract slots awarded have been filled.

**No. of children filling slots may be greater than slots awarded.

Effective Reporting Month February 2013 flex over 5% no longer includes Supportive (expansion slots) over 5%.

RegularFilled

RegularOpen

FlexFilled

FlexOpen

Flex -Over5%

Flex -Under

5%3/ 1/2012 13,271.5 1,194.5 579.5 279.5 (432.0) 711.53/ 30/ 2012 13,391.0 1,071.0 604.5 254.5 (441.5) 696.04/ 30/ 2012 13,388.0 1,074.0 640.5 218.5 (451.0) 669.55/ 29/ 2012 13,266.0 1,197.0 596.5 278.5 (426.0) 704.57/ 1/2012 13,305.0 1,447.0 513.5 345.5 (381.5) 727.08/ 1/2012 12,978.0 1,530.0 492.5 365.5 (368.5) 734.09/ 28/ 2012 12,434.0 2,057.0 427.0 430.5 (309.0) 739.510/30/2012 12,751.5 1,738.5 427.0 430.5 (303.5) 725.011/28/2012 12,881.5 1,608.5 426.5 421.5 (289.0) 719.51/ 1/2013 12,783.5 1,706.5 400.0 457.0 (273.0) 730.01/ 31/ 2013 13,123.0 1,365.0 428.0 429.0 (289.0) 718.02/ 28/ 2013 13,195.5 1,292.5 213.5 643.5 (98.5) 742.03/ 28/ 2013 13,587.0 1,256.0 210.0 647.0 (99.5) 746.5

(2,000.0) -

2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0

10,000.0 12,000.0 14,000.0 16,000.0

New Children on Waitlist (July 2012 thru March 2013)

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Active Since Month Infant Preschool School Age

Toddler Unborn Total

03/01/2013 To 03/31/2013 325 325 336 302 133 1,421 02/1/2013 To 02/28/2013 315 305 300 294 113 1,327 01/1/2013 To 01/30/2013 403 400 471 362 152 1,788 12/01/2012 To 12/31/2012 277 264 307 216 96 1,160 11/01/2012 To 11/30/2012 339 340 298 354 116 1,447 10/01/2012 To 10/31/2012 455 519 577 447 168 2,166 09/01/2012 To 09/30/2012 546 650 680 498 155 2,529 08/01/2012 To 08/31/2012 438 542 660 489 139 2,268 07/01/2012 To 07/31/2012 403 448 525 374 140 1,890

Total 3,501 3,793 4,154 3,336 1,212 15,996

Note: This report shows the number of children who first time entered waitlist, as active child, within specified period of time and still active when the report is created.

0

200

400

600

80003

/01/

2013

To

03/3

1/20

13

02/0

1/20

13 T

o02

/28/

2013

01/0

1/20

13 T

o01

/31/

2013

12/0

1/20

12 T

o12

/31/

2012

11/0

1/20

12 T

o11

/30/

2012

10/0

1/20

12 T

o10

/31/

2012

09/0

1/20

12 T

o09

/30/

2012

08/0

1/20

12 T

o08

/31/

2012

07/0

1/20

12 T

o07

/31/

2012

InfantPreschoolSchool AgeToddlerUnborn

Num

ber o

f New

Chi

ldre

n on

Wai

tlist

New Children on Waitlist (Jan 2012 thru June 2012)

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Active Since Month Infant Preschool School Age

Toddler Unborn Total

06/01/2012 To 06/30/2012 342 406 630 300 127 1,805 05/01/2012 To 05/31/2012 378 461 553 353 150 1,895 04/01/2012 To 04/30/2012 360 389 435 348 139 1,671 03/01/2012 To 03/31/2012 415 461 448 375 151 1,850 02/01/2012 To 02/29/2012 342 383 342 309 146 1,522 01/01/2012 To 01/31/2012 317 344 345 275 113 1,394

Total 2,154 2,444 2,753 1,960 826 10,137

Note: This report shows the number of children who first time entered waitlist, as active child, within specified period of time and still active when the report is created.

0

200

400

600

800

06/0

1/20

12 T

o06

/30/

2012

05/0

1/20

12 T

o05

/31/

2012

04/0

1/20

12 T

o04

/30/

2012

03/0

1/20

12 T

o03

/31/

2012

02/0

1/20

12 T

o02

/29/

2012

01/0

1/20

12 T

o01

/31/

2012

UnbornInfantToddlerPreschoolSchool Age

Num

ber o

f New

Chi

ldre

n on

Wai

tlist

Caseload Waitlist Since 02/2012

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*Waiting List Category 2/29/12 Total

3/31/12 Total

4/30/12 Total

5/31/12 Total

6/30/12 Total

7/31/12 Total

8/30/12 Total

9/30/12 Total

10/31/12 Total

11/30/12 Total

12/31/12 Total

01/31/13 Total

02/28/13 Total

3/28/13 Total

Child of Foster Care 149 162 205 216 215 227 241 255 269 276 282 288 290 285

Child of Homeless family 186 201 315 342 374 410 435 460 482 520 536 558 566 576

Child of Military Personnel 54 57 68 69 71 71 71 79 95 101 105 116 116 123

Child of Teen Parent 234 247 312 343 355 380 406 427 461 477 481 489 513 507

Child w ith Special Needs 1,083 1,149 1,449 1,577 1,676 1,765 1,890 1,978 2,056 2,117 2,198 2,234 2,291 2,355

Continuity of Care: Prior Year Summer Only

66 83 124 122 123 123 120 135 149 161 164

Continuity of Care: Aging Out 288 289 301 310 312 315 388 405 404 409 411 402 398 399

Continuity of Care: Approved Break in Service

309 315 337 353 359 383 437 448 450 442 451 470 473 482

Continuity of Care: ARRA 143 137 159 162 159 160 153 151 148 146 149 148 146 141

Continuity of Care: Geographic Relocation 86 90 118 123 134 142 168 182 171 182 186 198 201 207

Continuity of Care: Homeless Contract 8 10 16 17 18 19 17 20 20 25 27 29 32 31

Continuity of Care: Supportive Referral 112 114 184 204 226 233 245 247 255 269 279 288 296 308

Continuity of Care: Teen Parent Contract 22 21 23 23 23 23 27 31 32 32 32 28 27 28

General Priority 26,009 26,946 28,818 30,564 31,958 33,370 35,264 37,113 38,268 39,470 40,431 41,722 42,588 43,315

Grandparent/Guardian Families 31 361 461 482 631 504 616 590 561 541 547 565 566 576

N/A - 656 636 944 623 867 876 888 556 541 523 518 509

No Priority - Other Family Member 347 32 144 171 482 220 518 542 538 282 295 314 327 338

Parent w ith Special Needs 570 551 657 681 193 734 235 253 268 805 806 805 807 807

Sibling: Contract 330 334 485 460 700 516 764 795 795 654 672 714 729 771

Sibling: Voucher 680 683 685 603 500 684 555 602 630 788 804 833 845 870

Summer only care 619 621 736 748 653 875 712 734 745 899 893 919 923 958

Grand Total 31,260 32,320 36,129 38,150 40,066 41,778 44,131 46,311 47,659 49,111 50,261 51,792 52,813 53,750

* Waitlist Data as of September 2011 is reported from KinderWait** Excludes Unborn children, Children 13 or older, “0” zip codes and towns out of state.

FY14 Budget Process Prep •Initial maintenance building process for FY14. starts in the summer of 2012.

GOV

• Released on January 23, 2013. Funded EEC account at $619.4M, making significant investments in child care quality and access totaling $131M. Outside of the investments the Governor offered maintenance funding throughout the accounts

House • Released in April.

Senate • Released in early to mid May

Conf

• To reconcile the difference between the House and Senate versions a Conference committee is established comprising 3 members from each the House and Senate .

• The report of that committee is typically completed by mid to late June. The House and Senate enact the bill and send it to the Governor for his signature

• The bill becomes law upon the Governor’s signature.

Veto & Override •Governor may s ign the bill with objections to certain item s.• Everything outs ide of those vetoed items become law July 1.•The vetoed items must be overridden by 2/ 3 of the House and then the Senate.

FY14 GAA •Once vetoes and overrides are done the FY14 budget is complete.

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FY13 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee April 1, 2013

Documents

Transcript of FY13 Budget and Caseload Update Fiscal Committee April 1, 2013