Futures of Technology in Africa
Transcript of Futures of Technology in Africa
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Jasper Grosskurth
Futures oF
technology
in AFricA
STT 75
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About STT
STT explores new trends and develops inspiring oresights on technology and society.
For that purpose STT acilitates a ree space in which enthusiastic stakeholders meet
and construct creative views on the uture. The results serve as starting points or
new initiatives, such as applied research programmes or public-private cooperation.
Project participants are the most important ambassadors o the results, which are
also distributed through the media, lectures and workshops.
The STT Netherlands Study Centre or Technology Trends was established in 1968 by
The Netherlands Royal Instititute o Engineers (KIVI). STT is a non-prot organiza-tion unded by the Dutch government and business contributions. STTs advisory
board consists o almost 30 members who are selected among contributors and
scientic institutions, all appointed on personal title. In addition, STT hosts two
academic chairs on utures studies and research. While most regular updates on
our activities are in Dutch, many o our reports are in English. Do take a look at
current and past oresight projects and our recent publications on our website.
Address:
P.O. Box 30424
2500 GK The Haguethe Netherlands
Telephone: +31 70 302 98 30
E-mail: [email protected]
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Imprint
Lead author: Jasper Grosskurth, STT, the Hague
Prooreading: Sally Lansdell, EditExpert, Northolt, United Kingdom
Production co-ordinator: Rosemarijke Otten, STT, the Hague
Book and cover design: Roqueort Ontwerpers, Utrecht
Print: Deltahage, the Hague
ISBN 978-90-809613-7-1
STT Publication no 75
NUR 950
Keywords: Arica, technology, development, oresight
2010 STT, The Hague, the Netherlands
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licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/)
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You must attribute the work to STT Netherlands Study Centre or Technology
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Futures oFtechnology
in AFricAJasper Grosskurth
STT 75
STT, Den Haag, Nederland 2010
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9
Every successul economic catch-up in
the past 140 years has involved the ap-
propriation o international technology,
and technology plays an important role
in most strategies to alleviate hunger
and poverty, including the UNs Millen-
nium Development Goals. In addition
to the ethical imperatives o ghting
poverty and hunger, a number o global
issues, including demographic shits,
climate change and geo-political sta-
bility, require the application o tech-
nology in developing countries. Beyond
these considerations, businesses in de-
veloped and developing countries alikehave discovered the signicant buying
power o the poor and their desire or
aordable consumer products, as well
as the potential to reduce costs through
production in less developed countries.
Consumption and production in poor
regions are now strong drivers o global
technology innovation and diusion.
The set o opportunities and constraints
guiding technological dynamics in
developing countries diers rom that
o developed countries in some im-
portant respects. For example, devel-
oped countries are subject to strong technological
lock-ins, such as communication through copper
wires, internet access with desktop computers,
car-intensive transport inrastructures and central-
ized systems o energy production. Many less and
least developed countries are not subject to theselimitations, oering them the opportunity or
so-called leaprogging. Landline telephones, still
widespread in developed countries, are skipped in
the evolution o telecoms sectors in less developed
countries. For many applications, desktop will be
skipped as smart phones and similar gadgets pro-
vide internet access. In many rural areas, decen-
tralized energy solutions will roll out more quickly
than the centralized ones that still orm the back-
bone o energy systems in developed countries.
However, while the possibility o installing the
latest generation o technology rom scratch oers
at the cost o precision and depth. The choices we
made in combining the two strategies are based
on our months o literature research and several
dozen conversations with experts on technology
and development with business, government and
academic backgrounds. This section explains the
choices we made.
In STT oresights, these choices are not pre-de-
termined beore the launch o a project. It is the
rst task o an STT project leader to identiy the
most promising niche and reormulate the project
ocus accordingly. These niches promise a relevant
contribution to the understanding o the uture
interaction o technology and society, making useo the strengths o STT. These include the capacity
to build new knowledge networks o personally
committed high-level experts with a wide range o
backgrounds, and to explore an issue fexibly, crea-
tively and independently. The niche should also be
o relevance to Dutch society, whether this be busi-
ness, government, academia or civil society. And
STTs niches are oten neglected by other organiza-
tions at the time o their ormulation.
Why Africa?
The possibility o not applying a regional ocus
was ruled out very early in the project. We did not
expect to deliver meaningul results while working
simultaneously on our continents in networks that
would rst have to nd common ground across
multiple cultural barriers. A global ocus would
have orced the project towards a level o abstrac-
tion at which its practical relevance would have
been compromised.
Between the options, there were many reasons
to ocus on Arica. During the last decade, Arica
has outgrown the world economy and, despite
the recent nancial crisis, this trend is projected
to continue in the uture. For some technologies
Arica even exhibits the highest growth rates in
the world, mobile communication being the most
prominent example. Arica really is rising. Despite
these developments, the global technological gap
is most persistent, poverty is denser than else-
where and less is known about technology in Arica
when compared with other developing regions.
The combination o a highly dynamic region with
excellent opportunities or development on the
one hand, and a desperate need to improve the
quality o lie or a large part o the population on
the other, makes Arica an exciting and worthwhile
project target.
This impression was conrmed in conversations
with experts on development and technology.
Without previously mentioning a regional ocus,
most experts used examples rom Arica to explain
their arguments. When asked directly which, i
any, regional ocus should be applied, the over-
whelming majority chose Arica, more specically
Sub-Saharan Arica. The latter ocus was appliedbecause North Arica is economically and techno-
logically much more integrated with Europe. Also,
the drivers o technological change, opportunities
and threats diered substantially between the re-
gions north and south o the Sahara. Most interna-
tional organizations categorize Sub-Saharan Arica
as Arica without Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco,
Sudan, Tunisia and Western Sahara and we ollow
that denition in this book, unless mentioned oth-
erwise. We also neglect the specic issues concern-
ing Aricas small island states.
opportunities, the path o resource-intensive tech-
nology that the Western countries have ollowed
is largely closed to developing countries, be it or
reasons o prohibitive costs o resources, relative
lack o capital or global sustainability. This mostly
concerns the use o ossil uels, rare materials and
ertilizers. An obstacle in the path o becoming
a source o global technology is the act that the
global technological knowledge economy is highly
concentrated in a very ew places. This process
o concentration is sel-reinorcing. Geographical
centres o technological excellence and innovation
attract innovators, capital and expertise, making it
particularly dicult or others to catch up. Experts
and proessionals tend to move towards thesecentres, and a brain drain takes place.
STTs interest in exploring the uture o technology
in developing countries is driven by the opportu-
nities to address urgent problems, by questions
about past and oreseeable ailures, by the possi-
bility o improving development strategies and by a
wish to gain a better understanding o the worlds
emerging markets. The most important driver,
however, is the awareness that technology will
aect the uture o the worlds poor, that the poor
will infuence the uture o technology, and that
very little is known about this interaction. How will
technology evolve in developing countries, how
will global technology evolve as poor countries
become emerging countries and emerging countries
become developed countries, which sectors will be
most aected, which will have the biggest impact,
which will change soonest, and what lessons can
we learn today rom the answers to these question?This is the quest o the STT oresight on The Future
o Technology in Developing Countries.
Scope and choicesExploring all aspects o utures o technology in
developing countries with a time horizon o two
decades in a meaningul manner is beyond the
scope o most organizations, including STT. There
are two possible escape routes rom this impos-
sibility. The rst is limiting the ocus to a specic
region, industrial sector or type o technology, at
the cost o comprehensiveness. The second is to
apply broad brush strokes, providing an overview
Introduction
introduction
Sub-Saharan Arica
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Introduction
11
Sources o inormationTo interpret this book it is helpul to understand
the sources on which it is based: visits on location,
interviews, conversations, workshops, quantitative
data and literature studies.
Visits on location, interviews and conversations
The most important source o all or any STT oresight
lies in people. For the past three years, we have ini-
tiated hundreds o conversations on utures o tech-
nology in Arica. These can be divided into several
groups. In the rst phase, open dialogues dominated
the project, meetings with anyone with any link to
technology in Arica, ranging rom world traveller to
science ction author, rom sel-employed web de-signer to director o a multi-national, rom creative
thinker to globally renowned expert, rom reugee
to ambassador, rom activist to minister. Questions
included: What do you think about when you think
about technology in developing countries? Which
questions should this project seek to answer? How
does your work or expertise relate to the technol-
ogy and development? What changes would you put
your money on? Who else should be involved and
which literature is a must-read? These conversations
established and ormed the project and resulted in a
diverse network that has carried the project along.
Once the shape o the project was emerging,
conversations moved rom personal conversations
to public discussions. Forums o debate included
NGOs, such as a workshop at the 2009 1% Event in
Amsterdam; academic research, such as a panel
debate on ethics, technology and development led
by a consortium o the three technical Universitiesin the Netherlands (3TU); businesses, or example a
strategic session with TNOs in-house Flying Innova-
tion Team; and governance, or example a presen-
tation and top-level discussion at the Social and
Economic Council o the Netherlands (SER), among
many others. These events were always two-way
exchanges. The projects ideas and preliminary
ndings would be presented and eedback would
be given, on content, possible sources and partners,
similar projects elsewhere, and so on.
The third kind o conversations, ormal and inor-
mal interviews, were taking place during visits on
dependent oresight project on Arican governments
seemed overambitious.
About this bookThis book is the most tangible o the projects
results. Its aim is to make you think again about
Arica and how you see Arica, wherever in the
world you are. Its purpose is to make you ques-
tion your and our ideas about Arica. The book
adds a technology voice to a global conversation,
in which cultural, economic, political, institutional,
intellectual and many other voices are also taking
part, bringing about a richer image o modern-day
Arica. The book is best understood as a journey. We
meet and listen to technology and other pioneers,acilitators o change, sceptical experts, intellectual
visionaries, cheetahs and hippos (we will come
back to what they stand or in Chapter 1). We visit
hot spots o technology and explore uture suc-
cesses and ailures.
The book is not a comprehensive inventory o
technology in Arica. Those looking or a detailed,
quantitative overview o sector-specic inorma-
tion and related orecasts will be disappointed,
though they might nd valuable nuggets. For the
current state o technology and short-term trends,
other organizations with a pan-Arican reach and
expert partners in all technological sectors pro-
duce reports and databases with rapidly increas-
ing quality. Reerences to these are listed among
the Recommended sources at the end o most
chapters. Neither is the book as a whole a work o
science. No overall hypothesis is being ormulated,
let alone tested and many o the sources, and theiranalysis would not stand up to commonly accepted
scientic criteria. This book is not objective. The
interviewees were selected based on their position,
their expertise and their ability to think creatively
and abstractly. Innovative trends received more
attention than well-known ones, businesses more
than NGOs. Countries to visit were selected on the
basis o their potential to be technology pioneers
on the continent. We went where the change is
quickest, where the uture seems closest and, more
than once, where chance brought us. It is one o
the luxuries o an STT oresight that serendipity is
allowed to unold its powers.
global technology to Arica. Also, the willingness o
businesses to invest resources and capacities in a
particular technology in relation to Arica is one o
the better indicators or what will happen in the me-
dium-term uture. Among the plethora o concepts
and ideas that seem to address the needs on the
continent, those with major nancial backing and
those with many competing companies heading in
the same direction are those most likely to blossom.
During conversations and interviews, businesses,
both in Arica and in the Netherlands, were also
most eager to learn about the uture o technology
and seemed most likely to act on the results. STT
oresights thrive on this curiosity and commitment,which lead the participants to share their insights.
Several managers argued that they needed the big-
ger story to convince their superiors to take Arica
more seriously as an emerging market. This story is
emerging at the present time and this STT oresight
contributes a large chunk to it, a chunk that has
been relatively neglected or too long. This ocus ts
perectly with STTs excellent business network, as
well as its policy o taking up an issue or not more
than three years and then launching the results
through other organizations.
This choice does not imply that this book is ir-
relevant or non-business readers. On the contrary.
NGOs are increasingly co-operating with businesses
to leverage their impact and to achieve their goals.
The business ocus stimulates this interaction. Also,
NGOs, be they oreign with a stake in Arica or local,
are increasingly aced with a type o change that
requires business-like responses. For example, NGOsneed to plan strategically or the rapid changes in
the communication landscape. They need to invest
their resources diligently in projects that are most
likely to deliver, taking into account uture uncer-
tainties. And development projects without an eco-
nomic easibility are unlikely to work beyond a local
scale. For the same reasons, the Dutch government
is also strengthening its economic relationship with
Arica, while weakening classical aid programmes.
As or Arican governments, the quality o govern-
ance in Arican countries is without doubt the most
important actor infuencing the uture o Arica.
However, the possible leverage o a oreign and in-
Why technology?
The ocus on technology is part o STTs core mission
to explore utures o technology and society. When
applied to Arica, this ocus delivers interesting
results. Arica is mostly understood in terms o its
problems (the crisis stereotype) or in terms o its
wild beauty (the exotic stereotype). The technology
perspective is useul to see beyond these stereo-
types, to rerame Arica. It makes the recent eco-
nomic successes o Arica tangible and opportunities
or uture development visible. In addition, it brings
with it new actors and new networks. Large tech-
nology companies, or example, would have con-
sidered Arica a non-market a ew years ago but are
now committing to the continent. Sotware com-panies are increasingly building programming skills
in Arica and learning rom local innovators. And
because Aricas population pyramid still deserves
the name, technology adoption is progressing aster
than elsewhere. Beyond all o this, technology does
save and extend lives. The availability o clean
drinking water, o reliable electricity, o access to
communication and transport services does increase
lie expectancy, as health education and entrepre-
neurship benet. Chapter 3 explores the technology
aspect in more depth.
Why business?
STT projects dont have clients, saeguarding the
independence o the oresights. Nevertheless, one o
the criteria or the decision to dedicate a oresight to
a specic topic is that the results should be relevant
to someone. With respect to the uture o technol-
ogy in Arica, the ollowing groups were considered
as primary targets: businesses, NGOs, academiaand government. Each o these groups could be
addressed in the Netherlands, in Arican countries
or on a global or multilateral level. In the end,
business became the most important ocus o the
project. The reasons or this are twoold: rst, busi-
nesses are the major driver o large-scale techno-
logical change; and second, businesses are the most
curious to learn about the uture o technology.
On a continent where public investment in research
and development signicantly lags behind every
other world region, businesses become the ma-
jor drivers o technological change by transerring
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Introduction
13
now, i this or that development takes place?
What other trends would it interact with?
A th set o questions triggered interviewees
to ormulate their own long-term Utopia and
the obstacles to getting there. What is the best
scenario one can imagine and what stands in the
way o getting there? These questions oten led to
very personal conversations about values, hopes
and ears. They taught me about the internal
motivation and ambition o an interviewee.
Two questions ended each interview. The rst was
what the West should learn rom Arica; the sec-
ond, whom else I should meet. The rst question
was oten met with bafement, smiles and a long
silence beore an answer was given. The secondquestion allowed me to serendipitously discover
new interviewees guided by the local expertise o
people who knew my questions and interests.
Workshops
Businesses are usually reluctant to share their
insights and activities. This is generally the case,
but holds even more in the context o Arica. Do-
ing business in Arica makes Western businesses
vulnerable to negative publicity, even i an activity
contributes to development. Thereore most com-
panies with a stake in Arica have a Corporate Social
Responsibility presentation in which they highlight
their support o a local health or education project
or a marginal product in their range, specically
targeted at local development.
In order to overcome this and bring about a process
o mutual learning, STT partnered with the Neth-
erlands-Arican Business Council (NABC) in organ-izing the Discover the Lion workshop series. Each
workshop would ocus on one technology-intensive
commercial sector and bring together between 30
and 50 business representatives, hosted by a gene-
rous business partner: IBM hosted workshops on
energy, ICT, water and l ogistics; FrieslandCampina
on ood; PTC+ on agriculture; and the Technical
University Delt on business models. A set o short
presentations by industry experts was ollowed by
two hours o group discussions. In this peer-to-
peer setting, the participants were happy to share
their motivations, their expectations, their con-
cerns, their needs, their questions. These discus-
tion Ocer at the Federal Ministry o Education,
Abuja
Olatunbosun Obayom, ounder o the Bio Applica-
tions Initiative, Lagos
Ghana:
Andrew Tonto Baour, President o the Ghana
Institution o Engineers (GhIE), Accra
Ko Bucknor, Managing Partner at Kingdom
Zephyr, Accra
During interviews and conversations, most peo-
ple will nd it dicult to think about long-term
utures rom a cold start. Asking a person point
blank what the world or their eld will look likein 2030 is unlikely to produce worthwhile results.
Thereore, each interview was held ollowing the
same six-step open structure, designed to lead the
interviewee as smoothly as possible rom thinking
about the present to thinking about the uture.
Ater a very short introduction to STT, mysel and
the project, interviewees were invited to intro-
duce themselves, their eld o work and what it
has to do with technology. The result is a snap-
shot o the interviewees expertise in relation to
technology in Arica.
A time dimension was introduced in a second
set o questions by asking or changes observed
during the past ve years in the eld discussed.
This established an understanding o the speed
o change, as well as indentiying some drivers or
obstacles o change.
A third set o questions explored whether these
or other changes could be expected to continueor the next ve years and what the conse-
quences would be. This established the rst step
into the uture, providing many leads as well as
an inventory o the medium-term expectations o
the interviewee.
In a ourth set o questions, the time horizon was
gradually extended. Possible trend breaks were
explored, as was the scale o change possible
within a decade or two. This phase ocused very
much on the broader eects o technological
change. Questions included: How will a trend a-
ect your lie and the lives o your ellow citizens?
What will the country look like ten years rom
Dr Dorothy Okello, Women o Uganda Network
(WOUGNET), Kampala
James Segawa, Medical Equipment Consultants
Ltd, Kampala
Group interview at the National Agricultural
Research Organisation (NARO), headed by Dr Am-
brose Agona, Kawande
Rwanda:
Anonymous energy expert at the Ministry o Inra-
structure, Kigali
Anonymous inrastructure planning expert at the
Ministry o Inrastructure, Kigali
South Africa:Simon Camerer, Executive Head o Marketing at
Cell C, Johannesburg
Simon Dingle, technology journalist, writer,
broadcaster and proessional speaker, Johan-
nesburg
Anonymous lead partner Sub-Saharan Arica at a
global strategy consultancy, Johannesburg
Cliord Foster, GBS Partner and Chie Technology
Ocer at IBM, Johannesburg
Arthur Goldstuck, Director o World Wide Worx,
Johannesburg
Tanja Hichert, Scenario Planning practitioner and
acilitator o strategic conversations, Hichert &
Associates and Research Associate at the Institute
or Futures Research, Stellenbosch University
Raq Philips, Web AddICT and Marketing
Technologist, Cape Town
Tony Surridge, Senior Manager Advanced Fossil
Fuel Use at SANERI, Johannesburg
Paul Vorster, CEO at the Intelligent TransportSociety (ITS), Johannesburg
Nigeria:
Pro. Michael Adikwu, STEP-B National Project
Coordinator, Abuja
Josh Asanga, Port Manager at the Lagos Por t Com-
plex, Nigerian Ports Authority, Lagos
Adeyemi Fajingbesi, Technical Advisor to the
Minister o National Planning on Vision 20:2020,
Abuja
Jason Hurter, Managing Director at Fugro Oshore
Survey, Lagos
Pro. Abdulkarim Obaje, Monitoring and Evalua-
location in Kenya, Uganda, Rwandan, South Arica,
Nigeria and Ghana. Inormal interviews were mostly
used to learn about country-specic inormation, to
connect people, to gain access to local networks, to
allow serendipity, to be surprised. Formal inter-
views primarily delivered in-depth inormation on
specic issues or technology domains, long-term
visions and ambitions, personal insights on what
the uture might bring and questions to be ollowed
up. The ormal interviews were recorded, tran-
scribed and analysed. In this book, quotes without
a reerence stem rom these interviews. Chapter 10
is based almost exclusively on such interviews, as
is a large part o Chapter 8. However, any opinions
expressed may be biased by the choice o specicinterview segments and by the context in which
they are placed. The author o this book is solely
responsible or the content and any mistakes and
misjudgements.
Interviewees included the ollowing people:
Kenya:Salim Amin, Chairman at A24 Media, Nairobi
Julie Gichuru, Group Digital Business Manager
and Talk Show Host at Royal Media Services,
Nairobi
Wambura Kimunyu, an Arican writer, observer,
thinker and dreamer, Nairobi
Ahmed Sheikh Nabhani, Kiswahili Consultant at
the Swahili Cultural Centre, Mombasa
Nicholas Nesbitt, CEO at KenCall, Nairobi
Edwin Nyanducha, Founder o Inkubate Ltd,
Nairobi
Dr Sheila Ochugboju, Senior Communications andOutreach Ocer at ATPS, Nairobi
Dr Ahmed Yassin, Director at the Research Insti-
tute o Swahili Studies o Eastern Arica, Mombasa
Uganda:
Dhizaala Sanon Moses, National Planning Author-
ity, Kampala
Andrew Mwenda, Managing Editor o The Inde-
pendent, Kampala
Erostus Nsubuga, CEO at Agro-Genetic Technolo-
gies Ltd
Pro. Jospeh Obua, The Inter-University Council or
East Arica, Kampala
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Introduction
15
Chapter 9, with a major contribution rom guest
author Sheila Ochugboju, discusses the neces-
sity o a societal awareness o and discourse on
technological change. Reasons or stimulating this
discourse include the improvement o societal
choices about technological utures and the
acilitation o an Arican transition rom technol-
ogy consumer to technology innovator. Chapter 10
turns the tables and explores lessons or the West
to learn rom Arica, based on interview excerpts.
Chapter 11 provides a short overview o uture
changes and contains guidelines or the present
on how Western organizations can become uture
proo and take part in Aricas uture.
Wambura Kimunyus science ction story, TheLast Inrmity o Noble Minds (an excerpt), ends
the book. The story provokes us to take a long
view with an Arocentric perspective. Stories are
a powerul way to explore the uture and looking
beyond the horizon o all we know is an ecient
means o thinking out o the box. As this book is
being published, a ollow-up project o collating
a book o Arican science ction stories is being
discussed.
Literature study
Throughout the project, a continuous literature
study was executed. This ranged rom scientic
journals and reports to blogs and newspaper
articles. As the project evolved, the content o the
sources screened converged more and more on the
issue o technology and utures. The publications
contributed many o the arguments and examples
in this book. Many o the authors were contacted
and ended up contributing their knowledge, and
several o the initiatives ound in the publications
were taken up in the itinerary o the visits on loca-
tion.
Reading guideFew people will read this book cover to cover, but
most readers with an interest in Arica will nd
valuable inormation within it. The book can largely
be divided into our parts, each with its own char-
acter and purpose:
The rst three chapters are mostly o interest or
those interested in the motivation and process o
long-term thinking in general and on Arica and
technology specically. Chapter 1 sets the stage
with an overview o Arica in the 21st century
in terms o economic development, population
growth and the change in liestyles accompanying
both. In Chapter 2, guest author Geci Karuri-Sebina
provides an overview o utures studies in and
about Arica. Chapter 3 ocuses on the exploration o
global technological utures in relation to Arican
utures.
Chapters 4 to 7 are o most interest or those with
a hands-on interest in Arica. They explore u-tures o ICT, energy, inrastructure and agriculture,
respectively. Each o these chapters provides an
overview o the state o technology, major trends
and applications, uture uncertainties and open
questions.
Chapters 8 to 11 are o most interest to readers
with a strategic interest in Arica, those with a
long-term stake. The inormation gathered in
Chapters 4 to 7 is integrated and put into the
broader context o societal utures in Chapter 8,
based on interview transcriptions rom six Arican
countries and a set o scenarios developed in an
accelerated scenario planning workshop in Nairobi.
subsistence or barter economies, numbers remain
very rough. As dierent methods are used or these
estimates in dierent countries and by dierent
organizations, comparability suers even more. In
addition, or many indicators there is an incentive
to over- or underestimate. A region might want to
appear poorer to receive extra support or richer to
prove good governance. The Penn World Tables, a
world-standard compilation o income data, ranks
countries with grades A to D by the quality o their
data. While industrialized countries mostly score
straight As, nearly all Sub-Saharan Arican countries
get a grade o C or D, corresponding to a margin o
error o 30 to 40%.
As a consequence o these data problems, even
the present is analytically a part o the uture, with
most o the same uncertainties. Many characteris-
tics o data on Arica violate important conditions
or sound statistical analysis. Projections into the
uture based on extrapolations or regression models
are especially problematic. Their value is illustrative
more than exact. Decision makers used to basing
their assumptions on rich and accurate data should
take into account extreme uncertainties and biases.
Even improving data can cause problems, or exam-
ple ghost trends: i an indicator has been consis-
tently underestimated, an increase in accuracy in
itsel will result in an upward trend; overestimation
will result in a downward trend.
And data quality is improving. One cause o this
lies in more and better tools to collect data, rang-
ing rom satellite images or rening population
estimates to crowd-collected data through mobilephones. For the inormal settlement o Kibera in
Nairobi, or example, population estimates were
adjusted rom 1 million and more to a current
170,000 in Kenyas latest census, triggered by de-
tailed research. Also, as companies expand their
stakes in Arica, they are dedicating extra resources
to improving data availability and quality or out-
sourcing this to independent service providers. For
governments, the main incentive to improve their
data capacity is the establishment o unctioning
tax systems. Overall, we can look orward to signi-
cantly better and richer data with smaller margins
o error on Arica in the coming years.
sions provided valuable guidance in identiying less
visible aspects o technology in Arica. Results o
these workshops are available at www.stt.nl/Dis-
coverTheLion.
A dierent type o workshop was the FutureLab
workshop in February 2010 in Kenya. This brought
together ten o East Aricas most creative thinkers.
In an intensive one-day workshop, we explored u-
tures o East Arica with a time horizon o 20 years,
based on a rapid oresight method. The workshop
tested many o the preliminary project results
and embedded them in dierent plausible uture
cultural, political, economic and environmental
contexts. The results o this unique event can beound in Chapters 8 and 9.
Quantitative data and statistical projections
The availability o quantitative data on Arica is
relatively low. And where data is available, it is
oten o doubtul quality or outdated. The most
comprehensive sources or Pan Arican data per
country are the World Banks World Development
Indicators, the IMFs World Economic Outlook Da-
tabases and its derivative, the Regional Economic
Outlook Sub-Saharan Arica, and the Arican
Economic Outlook, published by the OECD and
the Arican Development Bank. These sets cover a
wide range o economic, social, environmental,
institutional and technological indicators and their
development, mostly up to two to three years ago.
In addition to these overviews, industry-specic
global organizations, such as the International
Telecoms Union (ITU) or the International Energy
Association (IEA), publish useul data. Also, marketresearch companies are increasingly covering Arica
in sector-specic research bries, oten including
short-term projections.
The data in all o these sources is subject to a high
margin o error, even more so the data or least de-
veloped countries, smaller economies or countries
in confict. Governments oten lack the institutional
capacity to measure even key indicators, such as the
size o the population or the economy. Especially in
rural areas, population numbers are rough esti-
mates, at best. Economic data now requently in-
cludes the unocial economy, but with pure cash,
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Chapter 1: 21st century Arica
19
tant assets outside and beyond the stereotypes, such
as widespread vibrant entrepreneurship, sophisti-
cated intellectual elites and the ambition to be seen
as a respected partner in the global community; and
second, the diversity between regions, countries,
cultures and socio-economic classes. Generalizing
about Arica based solely on the examples o the
crises in Congo-Kinshasa, Somalia and Zimbabwe is
short-sighted and misleading. A majority o Aricans
has neither suered persistent hunger, nor been
directly aected by an armed confict. A middle class
is taking root in many Arican cities. They too have
their story. The dierences between countries likeGhana and Nigeria or Rwanda and Kenya are at least
as big as the dierences between any two European
or Asian countries.
Arican economies score some o the highest growth
rates in the world, political stability is improving
and a young, highly entrepreneurial generation is
on the rise. And while many o Aricas problems
deserve global attention, the stories beyond the
crisis and the exoticism must be told as well. Not
only do they provide surprising insights into the
present and uture o the continent, they are also
the key to continuing the current rise o Arica. Who
Seeing beyond the stereotypes
People in the West are undamentally un-
educated about Arica. And its not only the
people in the street, even the educated classes
know little about the continent. Thats why
companies and institutions systematically
underestimate the potential o Arica.
These are the words o one o the leading strategy
consultants on Sub-Saharan Arica and many share
his opinion. Two stereotypes dominate Europes
image o Arica. The crisis stereotype emphasizeshunger, poverty, conficts, corruption and wide-
spread mismanagement, thus creating an image
o helplessness, incompetence and ineriority. The
exotic stereotype accentuates the natural beauty o
the landscapes, the colourul cultures expressed in
textiles, music and artiacts, the mysticism and the
smiles o the poor. A eeling o otherness underlies
this perception.
Both stereotypes have more than a grain o truth in
them. Crisis is widespread and Arica is exotic to the
Westerner. However, at least two important aspects
are lost in the caricatures: rst, Aricas many impor-
Figure 1-1: United Nations population prospects 20102050 in thousands (medium variant). Source: United Nations (2010)
50,000100,000
150,000200,000250,000
300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000550,000
600,000650,000
1,000,000
700,000
1,500,000
750,000
2,000,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Arica
Eastern Arica
Middle Arica
Southern Arica
Western Arica
Aricas population o currently 820 million will
more than double to almost 1.7 billion by 2050,
increasing rom its current share o 12% o the world
population to 19% in 2050. As Figure 1-1 shows, this
growth is pervasive with the exception o Southern
Arica (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Arica
and Swaziland). The same estimates stipulate that
in 2050, as today, more than hal o the population
will live in just six countries: Nigeria (158 million in-
habitants in 2009/289 million inhabitants in 2050),
Ethiopia (85 million/174 million), Congo-Kinshasa
(68 million/148 million), South Arica (50 million/57
million), Tanzania (42 million/not available) and
Kenya (41 million/85 million).
As a consequence o the ongoing strong population
growth, Arica has an extremely young population
and a population pyramid that still deserves the
name. All countries in Sub-Saharan Arica, with the
exception o the small island states, score above
world average in the share o 014 year olds in their
population (CIA, 2009). In addition to its youth,
Aricas population is increasingly urban. According
to UN-HABITAT (2008), 40% o Aricans live in cities
but Arican entrepreneurs is going to create the
millions o jobs required to eradicate poverty? Who
but Arican consumers, workers and their employ-
ers is going to pay the taxes needed to nance
public services sustainably? Who but well-trained
Arican armers will eed the growing population o
the continent? When Barack Obama addressed the
Ghanaian parliament in 2009, he summarized it
well: We must start rom the simple premise that
Aricas uture is up to Aricans.A more educated
West would strengthen the many threads o positive
change by working with Aricans rich and poor,
disenranchised and elite as true partners.
However, it is not only or the sake o Arica thatnew stories should be told. In its own interest, the
West urgently needs to educate itsel about Arica.
Europe has always needed Arica and will continue
to need Arica. Being ignorant about vast tracts o
arable land, about large resources o oil, gas, rare
earths and metals, about largely untapped renew-
able resources ranging rom biomass to sunshine
comes at a high price, as does turning your back on
the last emerging market and its consumers. Politi-
cally, disregarding Arica diminishes the power o
the West more than that o Arica, as other partners,
including India and China, are happy to deal with
Arica on an equal ooting. Demographically, wast-
ing the potential or clo se co-operation between
the ageing societies o the West and Aricas in-
creasingly educated youth would be a massive loss
to both sides. Geo-politically, discounting Arica
will also destabilize other regions. Again, in the
words o Barack Obama in Ghana: The 21stcentury
will be shaped by what happens not just in Romeor Moscow or Washington, but by what happens in
Accra, as well.
This chapter takes a look at a number o mega-
trends that will determine the ace o Arica in the
21st century. It provides a short summary o popula-
tion trends, current economic perormance and a
less tangible change in vibe.
A growing populationWithout doubt, population growth will be an
important actor in Aricas uture. The United
Nations (UN, 2010) estimates that Sub-Saharan
Aricas biggest cities are Cairo, Lagos and Kinshasa.
40 Cities in Sub-Saharan Arica have more than 1 million
inhabitants
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Chapter 1: 21st century Arica
23
Arica, implementing 67 reorms. Nearly hal the
reorms in the region are ocused on making it
easier to start a business or trade across borders.
Rwanda was the rst Sub-Saharan Arican country
to lead the ranking o top reormers, a reward or a
steady stream o reorms implemented since 2001.
The positive trends o the past are by no means a
guarantee or a peaceul uture o good governance.
Even with more and more ecient confict-pre-
vention mechanisms in place today to secure uture
peace and stability, confict cannot be ignored and
many o the regions democracies are vulnerable. In
the words o a leading strategy consultant:
Arica is a portolio game. You have to be
active in 30 Arican countries. Two o them
might turn out like Zimbabwe, but the rest will
compensate with strong earnings.
A new vibeThe demographic, economic and political trends
described above are all well documented and
contain many signals or an upbeat 21st century in
Arica. But reports and spreadsheets oer just a
glimpse o the changes in the streets o Nairobi or
Lagos. They capture little o the hunger or inorma-
tion, the ambition or personal improvement, the
changes in liestyles and attitudes, the globaliza-
tion o Arican minds and the social impacts o an
increasingly connected Arica. In my conversations
in Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, South Arica, Nigeria
and Ghana, people emphasized again and again
how much their lie, their city, their country had
changed over the past decade. For many, ar-awayriends are now a phone call or a mouse click away.
Unprecedented educational and business oppor-
tunities are evolving. Changes in liestyles, music
and slang languages are accelerating. Impatience to
catch up with the rest o the world is widespread.
A young generation, or which Ghanaian economist
George Ayittey coined the term Cheetah genera-
tion, is emerging among urban educated youths.
They are entrepreneurial, vocal and dislike corrup-
tion. Previously, the most intelligent youths aimed
or jobs in government or with international NGOs,
as these employers secured a decent and reliable
an income below 2,000 US dollars decreased rom
55 million in the year 2000 to 47 million dollars in
2008 and is estimated to be 44 million dollars in
2020. Figure 1-3 summarizes these ndings.
One driver o Aricas economic growth lies in the
high resource prices that have avoured Arican
economies or most o the decade. But this is ar
rom the whole story. Angola and Nigeria have
certainly grown on the back o oil and gas. Their
growth rates can only be decoupled rom resource
prices i oil revenues are invested into broader
economic development. However, a long list o
Arican countries has managed to diversiy their
economies signicantly. In Cte dIvoire, Namibia,
Zambia, Senegal, Cameroon, Kenya, Ghana, Mo-zambique, Tanzania and Uganda, the contribution
to GDP o the manuacturing and service sectors,
such as construction, banking, telecom and retail,
surpassed 65% in 2008, with a rising tendency.
(MGI, 2010)
Conicts, political stability and reormAn important driver o economic growth can be
ound in the realm o stability and governance.
Most importantly, the number o conficts in Arica
has decreased. According to the Ploughshares
Armed Confict Report (2009), there was a decrease
rom 16 conficts spread over 17 countries in the year
2000 to 11 conficts in 10 countries in 2008. During
this period, conficts ended, among others, in Con-
go-Brazzaville (peace agreement signed in 2000),
Ethiopia/Eritrea (2001), Angola (civil war in 2002 and
Cabinda confict in 2007), Liberia (2005) and Cte
dIvoire (2007). While the end o a confict is no
guarantee o development, all countries in this listhave shown exceptionally strong growth rates since
signing their respective peace agreements.
Aricas political landscape is also changing. Zimbab-
wes Robert Mugabe is the nal remaining o the
rst presidents ater independence. The number o
democratic and peaceul changes o government is
growing and citizens are increasingly demanding
good governance. Macro-economic stability and
micro-economic reorms are a direct consequence
o better governance, including improved budgetary
discipline. The World Banks Doing Business Report
(2010) lists reorms in 29 countries in Sub-Saharan
income. Today, employment in the private sector
and entrepreneurship are highly regarded and seen
as a way to become rich by being productive. The
opportunities or those with access to inormation,
higher education and relevant skills are endless and
their number is increasing.
These changes are refected in the mirror windows
o the business districts oce buildings. They can
be seen in coee shops, where young urban proes-
sionals work at their laptops; they can be seen on
Facebook, where millions o Aricans network; they
can be seen in the increasing number o Arican
blogs and discussion orums. And these changes
are increasingly recognized by the members o theDiaspora, many o whom are returning home to
build their countries or to benet rom the oppor-
tunities. Technology supports many o these devel-
opments and Aricas 21st century will be a century o
technology-driven change. This book is dedicated
to that orce.
Recommended sources
The State o Arican Cities 2008 is an excel-
lent report summarizing the challenges and
opportunities o growing urban centres in
Arica. It is published by the United Nations
Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT)and available or download on its website.
(UN-HABITAT, 2008)
Lions on the move the progress and
potential o Arican economies, published
in 2010 by the McKinsey Global Institute,
provides an excellent summary o Aricas
economic rise. (MGI, 2010)
Arica Rising how 900 million Arican
consumers oer more than you think by
Vijay Mahajan provides an excellent, i
overoptimistic, insight into Arican consumer
behaviour and markets. (Mahajan, 2008)
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Chapter 2: Arican utures studies
25
Chapter 2:
AFricAnFutures studies
Author: Geci Karuri-Sebina
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Chapter 2: Arican utures studies
27
exploring Aricas uture. More recently, Aricas
positive economic perormance has received broad-
er attention, much o it triggered by a report rom
strategic consultancy McKinsey (2010), highlighting
the business opportunities on the continent.
A comprehensive study o Aricas uture would
combine and enrich these ragmented examples o
oresight with less measured trends and changes. It
would explore possible extreme events and surprises.
It would acknowledge the signicant dierences
between countries and cultures on the continent.
It would embed these in the context o a changing
world. Such a study has yet to be executed.
There are good reasons to include Arica when trying
to understand global utures:
Population and economics: The demographic and
economic developments on the continent, sum-
marized in the previous chapter, will increase the
global impact o the continent.
Climate change: Arica is an epicentre o climate
change impacts. The IPCC (2007) expects eects on
migration patterns, human health and economic
development. These are likely to have knock-on
eects on other world regions.
Food: Global ood yields are coming under pres-
sure. Causes include soil erosion, extreme weath-
er and a competition or arable land between
ood and non-ood agricultural products, such
as biouels and cotton. At the same time, the
number o people to be ed grows and average
calorie intake is on the rise. Aricas vast tracts o
arable land, much o it still unarmed, have thepotential to eed billions. However, this valu-
able resource might also cause intercontinental
confict, since cash crops are mostly sold on the
world market and Asian governments especially
are securing large areas o Arican land to eed
their populations in the coming decades.
Energy: There is a global need to reduce ossil
uel dependency while ensuring energy supplies.
Aricas potential to harvest renewable energy
rom solar, wind, water and biomass sources
is large enough or local supply and signicant
exports. Europes governments and energy giants
are already building the networks connecting the
This chapter provides a brie introduction to utures
thinking about and in Arica. For a long time, Arica
used to be a white spot on the world map o ormal
oresight. This has changed substantially during the
past twenty years. Ever more initiatives work on
Arican utures. The chapter rst explains the role
o Arica in global oresight projects, then provides
an overview o national and regional examples. It
concludes with refections on the state and uture
o Arican utures studies.
Arica and global uturesExploring the uture o the world is a tempting
challenge. Will the 21st century really be the Arican
century? Who will be the world powers in 2050? Howwill global environmental change evolve? Will there
be a clash o civilizations? The many books and re-
ports written to discuss the possible answers to these
and similar questions generally ignore Arica (Karuri,
2005). Where they do include Arica, the discussion
is oten based on broad assumptions or stereotypes.
In a highly infuential global strategic oresight study,
the US National Intelligence Council (2004) provides
an extreme example o this: most o the uncer-
tainty surrounding Arica over the next twenty years
concerns how bad things could possibly get. Cilliers
(2008) summarizes the underlying sentiment:
Arican developments will not become a sub-
stantive driver and actor in global scenarios
in the next two or three decades. [] O all the
continents, Arica hardly eatures as a actor in
most global projections. [] From Washington
it is, in many senses, as i the Arican continent
is not part o the world, except as a source ocommodities, or humanitarian considerations,
or as an object o international intervention to
halt the spread o instability.
However, Arica does receive topical attention rom
uturologists. Issue-specic studies project, or
example, the growth o mobile phone and internet
coverage, the spread o diseases or ongoing popula-
tion growth. Also, global institutions, such as the
UN and related agencies, the World Bank, the IMF or
the International Energy Agency, do include Arica
in their outlooks. These reports, based on statistical
estimates, are the most widely used sources when
DominantFutures
Thinking
Opportunity
Complexity
Epoch
Socio-Economic Development
Agricultural
Seasonal
Cyclic
Socio-Economic
Predictive
Linear
Knowledge
Foresight
Multiple scenarios
Traditionally, the role o the !X (Khoisan) shaman
or the Dogon priests has or centuries included
looking beyond the present and preparing com-
munities or what may be in store. Day et al. (2009)
propose that thinking about the uture has been
critical to the survival o indigenous peoples around
the world or ages. However, the complexity, rate,
requency and inter-dependence o change in the
global environment have altered. In an agrarian so-
ciety, natures cycle o seasonality is the dominant
preoccupation and planning ahead or the rains or
the harvest may have been an adequate logic. In
industrialized societies the time horizons expand
as technology and competition require longer-term
planning. In a modern knowledge society, uncer-
tainties are even higher and choices made todayrequently aect several uture generations. The
long view asks or innovative and robust oresight
tools. Figure 2-1 illustrates how oresight strategies
have adapted to this increase in complexity.
Especially during the past ty years, methods
or disciplined thinking about the uture have
improved signicantly in response to modern
challenges. Most large organizations now engage
oresight expertise to develop shared visions o
desirable utures or to prepare or possible u-
tures, desirable or not. A shared vision is a tool to
mobilize orces or moving in a positive direction.
two continents. Unortunately, Aricas potential
stands in stark contrast to the present continued
use o traditional biomass or domestic use, die-
sel generators, coal plants and nuclear ambitions.
Social: Aricas rail health status and systems,
evidenced by the doubtul prospects o achiev-
ing the minimum targets set out in the Millen-
nium Development Goals, are a matter o global
interest or several reasons, not the least is which
is the menace o new and globalzing pandemics.
At the same time, indigenous knowledge systems
and bio-prospecting oer old and new prospects
or improved health and longevity.
Resources: The technological gadgets o the global
knowledge economy rely heavily on Arican rare
earths and metals. There is quite a bit o Arica inevery iPhone, every laptop, every car and every
other piece o modern electronics.
Global conficts: Arica has, once again, become a
battleground between global vested interests.
The emerging conclusion must be that Aricas u-
ture matters globally.
An inventory o Arican oresightThe previous section complains about the neglect
o Arica in studies o global utures. This section
provides a preliminary overview o utures thinking
within Arica.
Figure 2-1: The evolution o oresight tools. Source: Day et al. (2009)
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Chapter 2: Arican utures studies
29
rian government upped the game and proposed
Vision 20:2020. In short, Nigeria is going to be
one o the top 20 economies in the world by
2020. However, despite its ambitious target, the
Vision lacks a ocus and specic targets. It is not
a vision that people can run with and there is no
way to evaluate progress as there is no timeline.
While the UNDP might have triggered a large num-
ber o visioning exercises, Arican oresight projects
and initiatives have grown ar wider. The ollowing
list might not be comprehensive, but it provides a
good impression o the diversity:
Regional institutions, like the Institute or GlobalDialogue and the Institute or Security Studies,
have conducted regional oresight exercises.
National institutions that have a signicant ore-
sight ocus include the Egyptian Centre or Future
Studies, a government think tank to Egypts cabi-
net ocused on issues related to economic, social
and political reorm, and the Kenya Institute or
Economic Aairs. The latter does not have a state
mandate, but undertakes national-scale oresight
projects in the public interest.
The private sector has also produced oresight
work. Most major corporations working in or with
Arica have developed utures intelligence. This
is most prominent in sectors with a long-term
concern, such as minerals, energy and nan-
cial services. The projects are mostly executed
by private-sector consultants, oten applying
methods derived rom established ormations
with international experience such as the Global
Business Network.International development institutions and think
tanks that have had an Arica utures ocus also
exist. In particular the Society or International
Development has been active in East Arica. UN
agencies (UNDP, UNAIDS, UNEP, UNIDO, UNESA, IPCC
etc.) have undertaken signicant and continual
oresight projects.
Foundations like the Rockeeller Foundation have
undertaken and stimulated Arican utures work.
The Rockeeller Foundation specically has Arican
grantees engaged in horizon scanning and trend
monitoring in Western Arican, Southern Arican
and the Greater Horn o East Arica regions. The
Preparing or possible utures helps to prepare or
uture eventualities, positive and negative.
The majority o systematic oresight projects in A-
rica has aimed to develop a vision or mobilization.
A rst continent-wide wave o national visioning
exercises was initiated by the UNDP with the estab-
lishment o the Arican Futures Institute in 1992. The
organization, which became an independent NGO
in 2004, assisted Arican countries in using ore-
sight in their long-range planning. Starting o with
Cte dlvoire, Mauritius, Gabon and Zambia as the
early pioneers in 1993/94, 27 Arican countries have
National Long-Term Perspective Studies underway
or completed over the past 18 years. Outputs o thisnature have included Rwandas Vision 2020, Kenyas
Vision 2030, Nigerias Vision 2020, Botswanas Vision
2016 and so orth. Formal research on the ecacy o
these visions is still to be conducted. Nevertheless,
some dierences between the dierent countries
are apparent.
In Rwanda and Botswana, these visions have
evolved to become crucial guides or develop-
ment, clearly communicating the governments
medium- and long-term priorities. Specic tar-
gets or the development o inrastructure, hous-
ing, ICT, education, health and more were derived
rom the visions and ullment by the responsible
government agencies is closely monitored.
Kenyas oresight has led to the establishment o
the Vision 2030 Delivery Secretariat. The organi-
zation was set up to co-ordinate the initiatives o
the responsible government ministries. While the
secretariat has urther developed and publicizedVision 2030, the eectiveness o the organization
has been limited so ar. What is called by cynics
the Vision 2030 Illusion Secretariat has yet to
build its track record.
Nigerias Vision 2020 was revived in 2005, when
investment bank Goldman Sachs listed the coun-
try as the only Arican member o the Next-11
countries. The Next-11 are emerging economies
that might ollow the growth pattern o the
better-known BRIC countries (Brazil, India and
China). The report stated that appropriate reorms
could make Nigeria a newly industrialized country
by 2025 (Government o Nigeria, 2010). The Nige-
contribute to their national policy process (Millen-
nium Project, 2008). In a historical analysis o the
role o oresight study in South Arica, Segal (2007),
identied dozens o major South Arican national
and some regional utures exercises dating back to
the 1970s, their number increasing exponentially
over time. It also indicated that an additional range
o specialized and closed oresight studies had been
carried out within the proprietary strategic planning
processes o corporations, banks and government
departments. South Arica also has the only known
utures postgraduate qualication on the continent
(MPhil at the Institute or Futures Research at the
University o Stellenbosch), and there are ew such
programmes even globally.
In 2009, Foresight or Development Arica was
also established with support rom the Rockeel-
ler Foundation, an initiative which is trying to be
an aggregator and knowledge management system
or Arican oresight content and networks. The
platorms library can be accessed online at www.
oresightordevelopment.org and currently com-
prises close to 200 public oresight products related
to Arica, about a third o which are South Arica o-
cused. Although, as this chapter has shown, South
Arica has tended to be possibly the most active
Arican country in terms o signicant engagement
with utures and oresight, it is also the case that
the current results may merely refect the limita-
tions in internet connectivity and online publishing
in Arican countries.
Reections on Arican oresight
Even the level o activity refected above, relative toEurope and the USA the volume o Arican utures
studies is limited. This tends to be the case with
most research o any kind regarding Arica. Relative
to the limited available resources and capacities,
however, the Arican utures community can be
considered to be extremely vibrant. Nevertheless,
there is more oresight developed on Arica than
in Arica (or even by Arica). International ac-
tors, ranging rom the UN to global corporations,
rom international NGOs to Western academia,
conduct the bulk o the available studies outside
South Arica. Methodologically, two extremes o
oresight methods dominate on the continent:
World Economic Forum has done general and
sector-specic oresight projects involving Arica
(e.g. in the mining sector).
Several academic institutions have engaged with
Arican utures. South Aricas Institute or Futures
Research (Stellenbosch University), the Frederick
S. Pardee Center or the Study o the Longer-
Range Future in the USA (University o Denver)
and the Finland Futures Research Centre (Univer-
sity o Turku) are examples.
International voluntary and proessional utures
associations such as the World Futures Society,
the World Future Studies Federation and Futuri-
bles have Arican participants, though not on any
signicant scale, possibly due to the cost and rel-evance o participation. The Millennium Project,
a global utures think tank, has Nodes (or active
networks) in Egypt, South Arica and Kenya.
Two recent conerences held in Arica on the sub-
ject o oresight indicated rising awareness and
interest in Arican utures. A 2007 Arican Futures
conerence convened by the South Arica Node
o the Millennium Project drew attendees rom
more than ten Arican countries. The conerence
ound that there was an urgent need to stimulate
more utures thinking and collective intelligence
given the magnitude, complexity and inter-state
dimensions o Aricas challenges. A workshop on
Arican utures convened by the World Economic
Forum and Oxord University in 2008 ound a high
level o activity and demand or public interest
pan-Arican scenarios. It also called or the es-
tablishment o communities o practice, as Arican
participants at the session were typically unaware
o each others related work, in some cases evenwithin the same country.
In South Arica oresight has had particular trac-
tion. It was one o the very rst nations in the
world successully to apply nation-wide scenario-
based discourses about its uture rom the late
1980s to the early 1990s (Spies, 2004). South Aricas
High Road/Low Road scenarios (Segal, 2007) and
Mont Fleur scenarios (Le Roux et al., 1992) were
prominent exercises that enjoy global recognition
in the oresight community. South Arica also ranks
among many leading countries in the world which
have uture-oriented strategy or oresight units to
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Chapter 2: Arican utures studies
31
Thinking about the uture might not be bear-
able under such circumstances. The high degree
o uncertainty and the high likelihood o extreme
events might also lead to the conclusion that it is
impossible to develop plausible, let alone desirable,
utures. And even i one could succeed in this, the
requirements or creating or averting certain utures
may not be acceptable or possible or the protago-
nist.
The barriers to a oresight culture may lie even
deeper than that. In her book The Challenge or
Arica: A New Vision (2009), Nobel Prize Laure-
ate Wangari Maathai suggests moral, spiritual,
cultural and psychological reasons or the ailureto implement positive, long-term visions. Accord-
ing to Maathai, the deep psychological scars borne
(and dealt) by Aricans during years o colonialism
and through to a less-than-ideal post-colonial era
no doubt aect the psyche o Arica, the so-called
legacy o woes. Other cultural actors should also
not be underestimated (Stein, 2010). A mystic or
atalistic disposition, or example, which is not
uncommon in some Arican cultures, could nega-
tively aect the uture orientation o some socie-
ties. Importantly, the external locus o control or
the conceptualization o Aricas development path
since the 19th century has had the most signicant
impact on determining that path, and the pos-
sibility or impossibility o perceiving and crating
dierent utures.
To overcome this, John Ohiorhenuan proposes the
powerul metaphor o a sel-narrative to overcome
these obstacles. Such a narrative would have to beinormed by an awareness o contemporary trends
and uture possibilities in the world (Lombardo,
2007). He identies six essential virtues in the
development o a sel-narrative: sel-responsibility;
courage and determination; transcendence
dened as being dedicated to some worthy ideal
beyond ones sel, a preerable uture or human-
ity; the pursuit o truth and honesty; real cour-
age, which involves acknowledging and acing
the problems, risks and uncertainties o lie; and
wisdom, described as the capacity to apply deep
and comprehensive knowledge ethically or the
betterment o onesel and humanity in the uture.
quantitative/statistical modelling and scenario
building (Karuri-Sebina et al., 2008). Also, with the
exception o South Arica, visioning exercises seem
to be more common than exercises preparing or
possible surprises. Aricas oresight projects would
certainly benet rom applying a wider suite o
oresight methods and perhaps even the devel-
opment o new methods, tailored to its specic
context.
Although there is a sense that quite a lot o ore-
sight work has been done on or by Arica, there
has not been a systematic capturing and analy-
sis o this body o work regionally. Many o the
oresight products may also be proprietary, notpublically available or not published/disseminated
electronically. This constrains the ability to access
and assess Arican utures products. Evaluating the
impact o utures studies in Arica, the degree to
which visions have actually led to better decisions
and better outcomes, thereore remains a task or
the uture.
Given the persistence o many o Aricas challeng-
es, one could argue that a lack o long-term action
is apparent. Other long-term development indica-
tors support this view. Continued sub-optimal
investments in research and development, the poor
maintenance o inrastructure, weakened educa-
tion systems, degenerative agricultural practices
and mismanagement o public unds are tell-tale
signs that long-range planning and consideration
are not as embedded as they could be.
One reason or this apparent lack o applied ore-sight is that Arica continues to be preoccupied
with looking at its present and its past. Vital con-
temporary matters occupy government and public
resources, pushing uture problems or long-term
solutions down the list o priorities. In a personal
interview in July 2009, Kenyan media entrepreneur
Salim Amin illustrates the point:
I you ask me, where we are going to be in 15
years, I dont know. This country, or example,
could be burning in two years, literally could
be burnt to the ground, i we do not sort out
our politics now.
These virtues are critical ingredients to having an
Arica that does deeply and consistently think about
the uture. The recipe is not one that is only to be
served up to Arican leadership, but also to the ol-
lowership o the continent, who themselves must
participate in a new sel-narrative and culture o
oresight. Wangari Maathai supports this call by
declaring that Aricans need to think and act or
themselves. Only then would the uture be Aricas
to conceive, create and navigate.
Recommended sources
Foresight or Development is an emerging
knowledge-sharing platorm, and currently
the only open-access repository and social
network or oresight-related inormation
resources on Arica. It can be ound at:
www.oresightordevelopment.org
Breaking the Mould: The Role o Scenariosin Shaping South Aricas Future, authored
by Nick Segal or the South Arica Node o
the Millennium Project in 2007, is one o ew
analyses conducted on the role that oresight
has played in specic national development
trajectories on the continent. (Segal, 2007)
A Guide to Conducting Futures Studies in
Arica, published by Arican Futures investi-
gates various oresight methods and attempts
to highlight methods that appear best suited
to oresight in Arica. (Arican Futures et al.,
2002)
About the author
Geci Karuri-Sebina, Chairperson o the South
Arica Node o the Millennium Project, and
Research Associate at the Institute or Economic
Research on Innovation (IERI), Tshwane Univer-
sity o Technology, Pretoria, South Arica.
Email: [email protected]
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Chapter 3:exploringtechnologyFutures
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Chapter 3: Exploring technology utures
35
considered much more important than the transer
o physical technology. Strengthening educational
systems, as well as science communities, in devel-
oping countries became a primary objective. The
establishment and support o national Academies
o Science and partnerships between Arican and
Western or Asian universities are typical initiatives.
Currently, the benets o transerring physical
technology, especially in the orm o basic inra-
structure, is getting renewed attention. Road and
rail inrastructure, power plants and electricity net-
works, as well as ICT systems, are at the top o the
list o projects executed, oten by Chinese partners
contracted by Arican governments. That basic in-rastructure opens up a range o options or urther
development. Businesses can trade more eciently,
education and health services reach urther and
modern technology becomes easible.
On Arican technologyThis book is about utures o technology in Arica
and the question is justied whether there is such
a thing as Arican technology. One important answer
is that most technology is Arican, as Raq Philips,
a marketing technologist rom Cape Town, explains:
There is Arica in almost all technology. The
raw materials probably come rom Arica, get
to China, get processed and come back.
But while some development initiatives work on
technology specically designed or or in Arica,
such as solar cooking devices or special wood
stoves, most interviewees experience technologyas a global phenomenon. Raq again:
I dont want to separate Arican technology.
Technology is technology, it works where it
works, tech has no borders. With a ew ad-
justments, a technology that is going to solve
a problem can be adapted slightly to solve
another problem in a multi-world.
Nicholas Nesbitt, CEO o KenCall, agrees:
Its like the cappuccino coming rom New York
to Nairobi. Everything thats there will come
People have vivid dreams o what technology can
do or Arica. In Nairobi, Wambura summarizes the
essence o many o these dreams:
I think technology is an oppor tunity, not an
enemy o the people. Get the roads to where
the people are, get the mobile phones to people
and then see what they do with it. Some will
want to do business with it, others will just
think. So just connect them and then stand by,
because it is not so much about deciding what
people are going to do, but giving them the
tools to do things.
Ideas about which tools are most important to kick-start development or to open the door to oppor-
tunity have changed over time, but technology has
been an important element in the ambitions or the
uture o Arican countries or the past 50 years. In
the 1960s, most o the newly independent Arican
states ormulated the ambition to become indus-
trial societies, to converge technologically with the
ormer colonial powers. Projects such as the Ako-
sombo dam in Ghana were built to kick-start this
development by supplying sucient electricity or a
uture o processing natural resources and manu-
acturing. A critique o this capital-intensive and
large-scale approach was ormulated, among many
others, by E.F. Schumacher in his book Small Is
Beautiul (Schumacher, 1973). Schumacher proposed
so-called appropriate or intermediate technology
as an alternative. This would be labour intensive
instead o capital intensive, and ideally designed
and produced locally.
Many local NGOs and initiatives still ollow this ap-
proach today, producing relatively uel-ecient
stoves, nity arming tools or aordable pumps,
ood-drying installations, irrigation devices and solar
water-heating systems. Even though local successes
have been achieved, intermediate technology has no
documented impact on a continental scale. Because
o the ailure to transer technology to Arica or to
develop it locally, the ocus shited in the late 1990s
towards education and thus towards capacity building.
Under the heading o science and technology de-
velopment, the transer o knowledge and skills was
here and theres nothing dierent about the
DNA o the Arican villager rom the American
armer. They will get whatever is appropriate
or them.
The act that technology is global and that aspira-
tions worldwide are similar to a certain degree
helps in exploring technological utures in Arica.
Many o the advantages and disadvantages, po-
tentials and risks are global, and countries that
have already implemented a technology do provide
useul cases or countries that havent. But while
the consumption o technology might be global,
the innovation and production o technology are
not. The internet and the mobile are not some-thing that started in Arica. The recent technological
change largely arose on the back o somebody elses
innovations. Chapter 9 explores, among other is-
sues, what is required to change that. For now, the
technological modernization o Arica gets ar too
little local input.
On the speed o technology uturesOne o the most dicult aspects in exploring
utures is getting the timelines right. How ast will
a trend evolve, when will it reach saturation level?
With a relative lack o data and no analogous de-
velopments in the past, estimating speeds becomes
even more challenging or Arica. Current signals are
conusing. Some changes happen very ast. The CEO
o a Kenyan company gives an example:
My assistant and lots o people at work,
theyre on Twitter and theyre Tweeting all day
long about whats happening. No one evenknew what Twitter was, what is it, July? They
didnt even know what Twitter was in March.
One obvious driver o technological change is its
useulness, as Sheila Ochugboju explains:
The beautiul thing about Arica is that we
are early adopters o technology that solves
problems. We do not have as many cultural
barriers as I see in Europe. There you can com-
ortably use a piece o lower technology and
keep on with your lie another ten years, and
not adopt the latest thing. Because you can
still get along. But in Arica we are absolutely
hungry or the latest thing. You can give a
armer a phone, and you say you can nd out
what the prices are at market, just press here;
he will take it.
And the delay in transporting small-scale technol-
ogy rom Europe to Kenya is negligible. Nicholas
Nesbitt enjoys bringing the latest technology to
Kenya:
The benet we have right now is, we dont
have to wait to participate in the development
o technology. You can buy it in London one
day, and it can be used here in Kenya today. Iit is on the internet, as soon as it is released you
can use it right away. You dont have to wait! I
sound very excited and I am very excited.
However, the enthusiasm about ast-moving tech-
nologies should not overrule the act that many
technological domains are still stagnating in Arica.
Access to electricity, or example, has hardly im-
proved over the past years, as investment, construc-
tion and maintenance have been neglected. And
even or the ast-moving ICT industry, the current
speed might slow down uture dynamics, as Salim
Amin explains:
The advantage that weve always had is
that by the time a technology gets here it has
morphed itsel to its applications. We dont go
through the teething problems o the technol-
ogy. We get the best or the latest model. But
then we oten get stuck with that model. Wedont actually evolve as the technology evolves.
There are several ways that have been used in this
STT oresight to sit through the timelines. Some o
these are sel-evident: it takes at least ve years
to build a power plant rom scratch, so energy is
unlikely to change dramatically within the next
ve years in a region unless plans or building are
in progress already. For international transport
inrastructure, this time span is even longer. For ICT,
on the other hand, ve years is already well beyond
the planning horizon o most market players. Things
can happen more quickly in this eld.
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Chapter 3: Exploring technology utures
37
external support, but its scalability and sel-
suciency are still uncertain. An example are
the household biogas installations o the young
engineer Olatunbosun Obayom in Nigeria, which
produce gas suitable or a cooking stove rom
human aeces. Another example is Googles SMS
search. In Uganda, the company introduced an
SMS interace or its search engine. It allows the
user to send a query and receive results by SMS,
no internet or data access required. A couple o
prototypes o a seed o change will have been
installed, the idea is technologically convincing
and the remaining obstacles seem surmountable,
but momentum is lacking. Seeds o change are
worth observing when thinking about medium-term technological utures, because they are the
universe o practical possibilities.
A trend is a type o project or product that is im-
plemented by several competing actors, possibly
in dierent ways. An example would be low-cost
satellite connectivity. A couple o initiatives are
currently building satellites with the purpose o
serving rural areas in the global south. Their spe-
cic technologies dier, they compete with each
other and more than one consortium has enough
trust in the potential o the technology to suc-
ceed or them to invest in it. Trends oten seem
obvious to those who are proessionally inte-
rested in the given sector, but much less visible to
outsiders. Making trends visible and putting them
in context is one o the challenges and values o
comprehensive utures studies.
A megatrend is a type o project or product where
many competing initiatives scramble to imple-
ment it as quickly as possible. Mobile money isa prime example. Hundreds o mobile phone
providers, banks, money-transer companies and
independent service providers are rushing to roll
out the best technology to transer money rom
one mobile phone to another, between mobile
phones and bank accounts, or between any two
bank accounts using the mobile phone. The
level o momentum in this sector, the number o
actors, the amount o resources and the current
success o these systems make megatrends strong
predictors or the medium-term uture. Its not a
question o whether a megatrend happens, but
exactly how ast and which horse will win.
Also, some trends depend on each other. Indus-
trial manuacturing is unlikely to rise quickly while
energy supply remains a limiting actor. Only on the
longer term can such obstacles be overcome.
Furthermore, in interviews with those responsible
or building roads or power plants, one can oten
elicit the level o trust the interviewees have in the
developments they describe. The dierence between
what is planned on paper and what is actually hap-
pening can be small or large, and those close to the
development usually can estimate the size o the gap
quite accurately. Scale, however, is the most impor-
tant criterion or establishing timelines.
On scale and technology uturesIn international publications on Arica, little die-
rence is made between inspiring, but small-scale,
individual ideas and pan-Arican megatrends.
The installation o a containerized classroom o
computers in rural Ghana is reported in the same
manner as the massive leaps in connectivity that
Arica is undergoing. The rst aects the lives o a
small community and requires an investment o
several thousand US dollars, the second aects the
lives o the majority on the continent