Future Water Demand in light of uncertainty regarding ...€¦ · Subak, 2000:...
Transcript of Future Water Demand in light of uncertainty regarding ...€¦ · Subak, 2000:...
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Future Water Demand in light of
uncertainty regarding climate
change
Presented by Ben Piper, Technical Director (Atkins)
On behalf of original CC:DEW project team:
Tom Downing (GCAP)
Keith Weatherhead &
Jerry Knox (Cranfield)
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The demand planner is:
• catering for the needs of age cohorts not yet born
• in a climate not yet experienced
• within government policies not yet thought of
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January 1990
May 1990
Tariff change - December
Penalties Penalties Lifted
Population Projection Results
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Logistic System Model (Logistic 模型) Grey System Model (灰度模型)
Linear Regression Model (线性回归模型) GDP (Likely Scenario) (GDP 模型 - 可能性较高的)
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Outline of Presentation
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CC:DEW study: recap and application of results
What has changed since then?
What are the future challenges?
Gaps for researchers and practitioners: uncertainty in adaptive management
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CC:DeW - recap
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Starting point (July 2000):
● Review of Herrington 1996
● UKCIP ‟98 climate scenarios
● Environment Agency Foresight-based Demand Scenarios
Components of demand
● Domestic
● Industrial/Commercial
● Agriculture (crop production)
Excluded from ToR
● Leakage
● Peak demands
● Stacking of droughts
● Extreme events
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Scope of CC:DeW
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Socio-economic driving forces
(EA Foresight Scenarios):
- Demography
- Economy
- Land use
- Culture
- Infrastructure
Policy:
- Regulation
- Investment
- Environment (abstraction)
- European water directive
Stakeholder decision making:
- Business strategy
- Attitudes toward risk
- Planning guidelines
Climate system:
- Mean changes
- Variability
- Extremes
- Scale
RESOURCES
DEMAND SUPPLY
SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE
- Scarcity
- Risk
- Uncertainty
RESPONSES
Climate Change Scenarios
- UKCIP 1998
- UKCIP 2002
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CC:DEW results
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Uptake
• Water Resource Plans
• Periodic Reviews: PR04, PR09
• EA Water Resource Planning Guideline open to different interpretations
• Guided agricultural water resources management
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Traditional approach
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Historic Timeseries: Rainfall, ET Flow, GW Level
Demand
Surface Water
DO
Rainfall-Runoff
River Flows
Groundwater
DO
Recharge
GW Level
> + Supply Target
Headroom
Demand
Conjunctive Use
DO
WR System Model
Headroom (including Climate
Change)
Deterministic Supply-Demand
Balance
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CC:DEW results
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Shortcomings
• Only covered average demands, not peak
• Considered by practitioners to be relatively crude derivation and application of factors
• Low spatial resolution
• Covered England & Wales
• Ignored CO2 impacts on crop production
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CC:DeW - Agent based modelling
Aggregate demand series scaled so 1973=100
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AlphaMH
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Agent based:
Discontinuities
Large range of results
Dynamic simulation:
Smooth scenarios
Modest range
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Next steps – articulated at end of
CC:DEW
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Limitations
● Variability and drought risk
● Low confidence in scenarios for 2020s
● Present data sets
● Behavioural change: technology, demand management
Toward the next assessment
● Integrate supply/demand balance
● Incorporate human behaviour in dynamic scenarios
● Continue data collection and monitoring
● Probabilistic scenarios of climatic risks
● Incorporate uncertainty into demand projections
● Consider CC impacts on resource availability
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Recap on UK Water Industry Research
AMP Period Period covered
Climate change
scenarios Notes
1 1990-1995 Generally not considered
2 1995-2000 UKCIP98 UKWIR CL04 1997
Recalculation of flow factors
Herrington
3 2000-2005 UKCIP02 UKWIR CL04 2002
EA WRPG Ver 3.3 (2003)
CC:DEW
4 2005-2010 Catchment level assessments
CC uncertainty in WR Planning
Trends in UK River Flows
Strategy for evaluating uncertainty in assessing
CC impacts on Water Resources
Interim report on R-Q modelling
5 2010-2015 UKCP09 New methods based on UKCP09
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Future challenges
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Scenarios of water risk
Demand analysis
Integrating supply and demand
Behavioural responses
Spatial scale of influences on demand
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Scenarios of risk need to capture the
uncertainty in water planning
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Define relevant climate variables and parameters: problem of joint distributions
Include worst case „what if‟ futures
Unpack confidence in various time scales
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Weather forecasts
Seasonal outlooks
Decadal dynamics
GHG forced GCM
DAYS
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Demand-side analysis lags behind
supply-side analysis
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Very few recent articles
● Vorosmarty et al. 2000: global non-climate demand
● Dessai and Hulme 2007: climate focus, not demand
● Wilby et al. 2006: supply focus, gaps identified
● Subak, 2000: managers‟ perceptions, supply focus
Retrospectives of past events – response to 2005-2006 drought in SE England
Should be more data available, and accessible to explore sensitivity of demand to climate variations
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Integrating supply and demand to
develop robust response strategies
Supply-demand balance rather than separate assessments
Presenting complex information to stakeholders for public understanding
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Responses on the time scale of climate change are
essentially behavioural
Ind
ivid
ual
So
cia
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Reference runs MH climate change
CCDew looked at how behaviour might change along with climate change. Results of an agent-based
social simulation model show the diversity of water demand scenarios. The model compares the role
of social pressure compared to individual decision making (top and bottom) and with and without
climate change (left and right). The scenarios broadly correspond to the earlier EA reference
scenarios: individual (alpha and beta); social (gamma and delta).
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Future agricultural demand
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Projections influenced by assumptions regarding population growth, food demand and patterns of food consumption
In reality, future demand will be influenced by actual water availability and allocation policy
New cultivars, genetic improvements, and effects of elevated CO2 could significantly offset future increases in water demand
But the regulator and consumers (supermarkets) will demand better management, uptake of new technologies and innovative approaches to water scarcity (such as water trading)
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Adaptation in agricultural irrigation
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There will be some autonomous adaption but growers will need to build adaptive capacity to cope with extremes and uncertainty
Many potential adaptations (e.g. reservoirs) are „no regret‟ -they already make sense by solving existing water resource issues, which then contribute to a farms future adaptability
But most growers remain more concerned about „non-climate‟ risks particularly very high degree of short- to medium-term uncertainty in agricultural policy and markets
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Return to UK PWSPlanning
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• 5 year cycle of Periodic Review focussed on public water supply
• Analysis has tended to be limited to the boundaries of individual Water Resource Zones, but increasing interest in cross WRZ transfers
• Uncertainty and risk tend to have been treated as add-ons in supply-demand balance analysis
• Impacts on agriculture sector not just on irrigation water requirements, but also on food security
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Socio-economic driving forces
(EA foresight scenarios)
Policy:
-Regulation
- Investment
- Environment (abstraction)
- European water directive
Stakeholder decision making:
-Business strategy
-Attitudes toward risk
-Planning guidelines
Climate Change Scenarios
-UKCIP 1998
-UKCIP 2002
RESOURCES
DEMAND SUPPLY
SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE
-Scarcity
-Risk
-Uncertainty
Climate system
-Mean changes
-Variability
-Extremes
-Scale
RESPONSES
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Socio-economic driving forces
(EA foresight scenarios)
Policy:
-Regulation
- Investment
- Environment (abstraction)
- European water directive
Stakeholder decision making:
-Business strategy
-Attitudes toward risk
-Planning guidelines
Climate Change Scenarios
-UKCIP 1998
-UKCIP 2002
- UKCP09
RESOURCES
DEMAND SUPPLY
SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE
-Scarcity
-Risk
-Uncertainty
Climate system
-Mean changes
-Variability
-Extremes
-Scale
RESPONSES
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Need for more integrated approach?
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Stochastic
Demand
Climate
Change
Uncertainty
Stochastic Supply-
Demand Balance
P P P
UKCP09 Weather Generator
Rainfall PET Temperature
P
Headroom
(other
uncertainties)
Groundwater
DO
Recharge
GW Level
Surface Water
DO
Rainfall-Runoff
River Flows
Conjunctive Use DO
WR System
Model
Risk Based Target
Headroom
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Discussion
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Research Agenda
Development of “Best Practice” approach, acceptable to water utilities, regulators, customers, and other stakeholders
Extreme events
Next planning cycle coming soon
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Future Water Demand in light of
uncertainty regarding climate
change
Presented by Ben Piper, Technical Director (Atkins)
On behalf of original CC:DEW project team:
Tom Downing (GCAP)
Keith Weatherhead &
Jerry Knox (Cranfield)