Future View of Transportation:

Implications for Safety

Alan E. PisarskiStakeholder Workshop

August 25-26, 2010

DEMOGRAPHY GEOGRAPHY

TRANSPORTATION

Transportation is the collision of demography with geography

DEMOGRAPHY GEOGRAPHY

TRANSPORTATION

DEMOGRAPHY GEOGRAPHY

TECHNOLOGY ECONOMY

TRANSPORTATION

Leavened by technology and the economy

A Quick Look at:

Demography is DestinyLicensing and Vehicle OwnershipTravel Behavior and ActivityTruck Freight Implications for Safety

Demography

The Pre-labor Force Age GroupLabor Force Age GroupPost Labor Force Age Group

OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS

The Old “Watch Out” School of Planning Doesn’t Apply Any More

Watch Out! Here They Come!There will be no Deluge of:

Young Population New Cars New Drivers (First Time Women Drivers) Vmt

But – Maybe of: Immigrant Drivers and Older Drivers Continuing to Work/Drive

In Many Ways More Operable

Not Much Growth to Drive VMT

Half of Growth in Aged Pop will be Safety Challenge

Only Small Increases in Potential New Driver Population

Holds constant at 1.4% of pop til 2011 or so then drops to 1.3% of the pop thru 2050.

About 400,000 16 year olds added each decade; except the coming decade where less than 300,000 are added.

End of the Worker Boom

1980-90: 18.5 Million

1990-2000: 13.3 Million

2000-2010: NEGATIVE

Our problem may be too few commuters not too many!

Where will the workers come from? It could matter

greatly.

A New Role For Older Workersworkers by age group 2000

0

10000000

20000000

30000000

40000000

50000000

60000000

70000000

<16 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Worker

non worker

Alan E. Pisarski

A Possible 11 to 13 Million Workers

over 65 by 2030OVER

651990 2000 2008 202

02030

POPULATION

(millions)

31.2 35.0 38.8(+24%)

54.8*

72.1*

WORKERS(millions)

3.5 4.25 5.66(+62%)

8.2^ 10.8^

SHARE AT WORK

11.2%

12.1%

14.5% 15%^

15%^

*Census Projections ^ Authors Estimates

The Tools of Travel

LicensesSaturation in all

agesWomen’s gains Immigrants

VehiclesStability Aging fleetWorkers = Drivers

IS IT THE ECONOMY OR THE TREND ?

Women will close the licensing gap

Men will live longer

Cars per Household – 48 Year Trend

Alan E. Pisarski

Households in thousands

Why Vehicle Ownership Matters – Work Travel

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%Other method

worked at home

walked

Bicycle

Motorcycle

Taxicab

Ferryboat

Railroad

Subway or Elevated

Streetcar or Trollley car

bus or trolley bus

Car Truck or Van

Alan E. Pisarski

Household Workers and Vehicles

In one worker hh 93% have one or more vehicles

In two worker hh 87% have two or more

In three + worker hh 74% have three or more

58%32%

8% 2%

HH with no vehicles by number of workers in the HH

NO WORKERS 1 2 3 & 3+

Stable Vehicle Ownership Shares into the Future

Only 4.4% of workers in household with no vehicle 2008

Consumer Spending on Vehicles Declining Since 2003-2005

Fewer vehicles? Older vehicles? More used vehicles?

Travel

Fewer TripsTrip lengths stableTravel times stable VMT slow growth But, long distance travel boomlet?

Is it the Economy or the Trend?

The Role of the Work Trip has Diminished with Time

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Daily trips per Capita

WORK FAM/PERS BUS SCHOOL/CHCH SOC/REC OTH

Trip-making down recentlypreliminary NHTSA

Mode Shares to Work are Stable

1990 2000 2008 WORKERS 100% 100% 100%

DRIVE ALONE 73% 76% 76% CARPOOL 13% 11% 11% TRANSIT 5% 5% 5% TAXI  0% 0% 0% BICYCLE 0% 0% 0% WALKED 4% 3% 3% OTHER 1% 1% 1% WORKED AT HOME 3% 3% 4%

As Women’s Jobs Became More Like Men’s their Work Travel Became More Like Men’s!

– Differences are Less Extreme

 RATIO OF WOMEN/MEN 1990 2008 effect

Drove alone 97% 102% NEGCarpooled 103% 91% NEG/?

Bus or trolley bus 166% 130% NEGSubway or elevated 121% 111% NEGRailroad 77% 83% NEGBicycle 30% 40% NEG/?Walked 106% 97% NEG/?

Worked at home 130% 109% NEG

Vehicle trip and VMT distribution by Purpose

(2009 NHTSA –preliminary)

Average Trip Length by Purpose

(2009 NHTSA -- preliminary)

Note: 20% of VMT is in trips over 50 miles

Where People Spend their Time

travel day trip duration

Mean

To/From Work 23.9Work-Related

Business28.72

Shopping 14.38Fam/Personal Business 14.8

School/Church 17.81Medical/Dentral 21.87

Vacation 46Visit Friends/Relatives 24.26

Other Social/Recreational

17.22

All 18.83

Immigrant Work Mode Trend

Mode Use by Years in US

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

< 5 yrs 5- <10yrs

10-<15yrs

15-<20yrs

>20 yrs BORNUS

other

Worked at home

Walked

Bicycle

transit

carpool

Drove aloneA NEGATIVE SAFETY TREND?

Only Above a Thousand Miles Does Air Travel Win Marketshare

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

LE

SS

TH

AN

300

MIL

ES

300-4

99

MIL

ES

500-9

99

MIL

ES

1,0

00

-1,9

99

MIL

ES

2,0

00 P

LU

S

MIL

ES

MEANS OF TRANSPORT BY ROUND TRIP DISTANCE

AIR

OTHER

PERSONAL VEHICLE

OVERALL SHARES%TRIPS %MILES

PRIV VEH 81 54AIR 16 43RAIL 1 1BUS 2 1

Source: American Travel Survey 1995

THE ECONOMY AND TRAVEL

Declining shares of spending to transportation (housing?)

Less focus on new vehicles Fuels impacts on costs Fewer workers = less travel spending? But, a boom in tourism?

IS IT THE ECONOMY OR THE TREND?

Major Transportation-Related Trends

Source: Energy Outlook, DOE

Travel Grows With Income Annual Trips per HH by Income LevelDoesn’t Have to Mean More Crashes

0100020003000400050006000

present Future

How do we spend our transportation money?

Dominant factor (94%) is acquisition, use and care of vehicles

Purchased transportation (6%) = anything you buy a ticket for: air, cruise, transit (13% of 6%), taxi

Un-reimbursed

Consumer expenditure survey BLS 2008

Transportation Spending is All about Workers

Household Spending for Transportation by worker level

02,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000

I personno earner

I personearner

multi noearner

multi oneearner

multi 2earners

multi 3+earners

$

Additional Spending per Worker

$2,681$2,469

$2,292$1,935

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

I personno earner

I personearner

multi noearner

multi oneearner

multi 2earners

multi 3+earners

Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2008

We are Spending Less on Transportation This Decade

Density and Distribution

Pace of change has slowedSuburban growth pattern continuesLarge metro growth is the key but …

Is it the Economy or the Trend?

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

20th CENTURY POPULATION TREND

SUBS

CC

NON MET

Suburban Growth Continues but Economy has Slowed Moves

• 35 million people moved from 2007 to 2008; down from 40 million in 2005-2006

• The mover rate dropped below 12%; lowest ever recorded (started 1948)

• In met areas over a million pop suburban share:– was 51.3% in 2000– now at 52.5% in 2008; – gained 66% of the growth

to 2008

Census Domestic Mobility Study

Suburban share of growth in Metros over 1 million

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

2000

Pop

ulat

ion 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Tota

l Cha

nge

Migration Patterns Metropolitan Areas over 1 million

(800,000)

(600,000)

(400,000)

(200,000)

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Historic Core Counties

Suburban Counties

National Commuting Flows – More Circumferential Travel

05000000

1000000015000000200000002500000030000000350000004000000045000000

transit

total

Mode Usage to Work by Flow Type

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Live in CC work in CC

Live in CC work in suburbs

live in CC work outside

metro

Live in suburbs

work in CC

Live in suburbs work in suburbs

Live in suburbs

work outside metro

live in non-met work in

met

live in non-met work in a non-met

walk Worked at home transit carpool Drove alone

Before 8 it’s a Guy Thing! Many in Long Distance Carpools - More Early Driving

male-female commuting distribution by hour of the day 2000

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

00 Male

00 Female

The Focus will be on Big Metros

Metros over a million1960 34 areas 1990 39 areas 2000 50 areas 2005 53 areasProbably 60 areas

by 202060% of population

12 areas with more than 5 meg.

1/3 of national pop.; 100 meg.

Growth is in exurb areas

Freight

Increasing tons, vehicles and value Increasing truck shares Prospect of larger vehiclesMore hazardous materialsNon-driver fatalities

Truck Freight’s Role is Massive

DOMESTIC FREIGHT

2007 2035

TONS(millions)

VALUE (billions $)

TONS(millions)

VALUE(billions $)

ALL 19,268 12,363 33,667 29,590TRUCK 12,691 9,266 22,230 21,654

% TRUCK 66% 75% 66% 73%

Freight facts and figures, 2008

Share of VMT by Road System

INTERSTATE SYSTEM

BALANCEOF NHS

OTHERHIGHWAYS

ALL VEHICLES

35% 30% 35%

ALL TRUCKS

49% 26% 25%

LONG DISTANCE TRUCKS

75% 20% 6%

Freight Story 2008

The Hazardous Materials Role as well

TONS(millions)

VALUE (billions $)

TON MILES

(billions)

ALL 2,191 1,660 327

TRUCK 1160 420 110

% TRUCK 53% 64% 34%

Freight Facts and Figures 2008

Truck Related Fatalities

We will see New, Sometimes Dramatic

Patterns A replacement labor force of ? size & skillsA rapidly increasing dependent older popA pop heavily defined by immigration policyChanges in energy & environment costsOther intervening new technologiesAll affected by and affecting changes in

societal preferences and tastes.

Major Safety Implications

POSITIVE Fewer young drivers Stable vehicle &

license growth Younger working age

group Slower VMT growth –

driven by pop & income

NEGATIVE More post-work age

workers Slow fleet turn-over Immigrant conflicts Higher percentage of

travel by older pop More trucks, hazmat

In Summary To me the central demographic

questions for traffic safety of our generation are:Will the post work-years group be forced to

stay in the work place – because of their own or society’s needs?

To what extent will the abilities of the aging population to meet its own mobility needs diminish? – in what ways and at what rate?

Can cars and truck activities be made more compatible?

Thank You!

Alan E. Pisarski

with Special Thanks to Forrest Council

and Hugh McGee

Vanasse Hangen Brustlin, Inc

Questions?