Future Urban Environments Dynamics, Lifestyles, and...
Transcript of Future Urban Environments Dynamics, Lifestyles, and...
Future Urban Environments Dynamics, Lifestyles, and
Commerce
Martin Schwirn Director, Scan™
www.strategicbusinessinsights.com/scan
January 31, 2013
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Challenges to Identifying ChangeToo Many Sources
Conferences
General-interest publications
University research
Web 2.0 venues
Company R&D
International media
Science publicationsAcademic journals
Hobby and DIY publications
Laboratory and research institutes
Government organizations
Broadcast media
Entertainment magazines
Web-based sources
Popular science magazines
Newspapers
Trade journals
Business media
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Challenges to Identifying ChangeToo Much Information
Productivity Enablers
“Humane” Robotics
Biotechnology
3D and Soundscapes
Genetics Advances
Mobile Systems
Geoengineering Approaches
Mobile Health Care
Smart Materials
Nanotechnology
Augmented Reality
Privacy and Security Considerations
Knowledge Creation and Innovation
Virtual Water and Net-Zero Buildings
Neuroscience and Brain Research
Cloud Computing and Semantic Web
Sensors and Smart Infrastructures Wireless Proliferation
Personalized and Localized Production
Crowdsourcing and Open Collaboration
Emotion and Context Recognition
Software AlgorithmsRenewable and Alternative Energy
Surveillance and Tracking Technologies
Novel Construction Materials Multi-Sensory Landscapes
Novel Interface Technologies
Location-Based Applications
Social Networks and Mashups
Customization and Personalization
Energy Harvesting and Micropower
Smart Grids and Home Automation
Sustainability
Print-Based Manufacturing
Predictive Applications
Virtual Environments
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Challenges to Identifying ChangeMain Goals of a Successful Process
Productivity Enablers
“Humane” Robotics
Biotechnology
3D and Soundscapes
Genetics Advances
Mobile Systems
Geoengineering Approaches
Mobile Health Care
Smart Materials
Nanotechnology
Augmented Reality
Privacy and Security Considerations
Knowledge Creation and Innovation
Virtual Water and Net-Zero Buildings
Neuroscience and Brain Research
Cloud Computing and Semantic Web
Sensors and Smart Infrastructures Wireless Proliferation
Personalized and Localized Production
Crowdsourcing and Open Collaboration
Emotion and Context Recognition
Software AlgorithmsRenewable and Alternative Energy
Surveillance and Tracking Technologies
Novel Construction Materials Multi-Sensory Landscapes
Novel Interface Technologies
Location-Based Applications
Social Networks and Mashups
Customization and Personalization
Energy Harvesting and Micropower
Smart Grids and Home Automation
Sustainability
Print-Based Manufacturing
Predictive Applications
Virtual Environments
How can practitioners prioritize new developments?
How can practitioners initiate meaningful follow-up steps?
How can practitioners identify new developments reliably?
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CustomizedServices
External Environment:Opportunities and Threats
Abstracts(Monthly)
Business Publications Scientific Journals Trade PublicationsPersonal Observations Consulting Work Web 2.0 Media
Magazines Broadcasts ConferencesNewspapers
Patterns(Monthly)
Signals of Change(Monthly)
Scan Meeting:Clustering, Filtering, Selection
Distillation:Background Research, Refinement
Chaotic/ Unstructured
Focused/ Structured
Early Alerts to Changes
Real-Time Data Points
The Scan ConceptThe Scan Process
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Scan™ An Organizational Radar to Navigate the Future
An early warning of pre-trend topics and friction areas in the external environment.
A reflection of the dynamic intersection in the diverse areas of commerce and competition, science and technology, consumers and society.
A systematic and continuous process.
An organizational radar to navigate the future, to cut through clutter, to identify areas of change, and to take time-sensitive actions.
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Food For ThoughtSome Information for Starters
Source: Alison Sander, Boston Consulting Group, Harvard Business Review June Issue, pages 34-35
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Setting the StageInterlocked Aspects of Urban Life
The urban population will grow from 3.3 billion people in 2007 to 6.4 billion in 2025,
when there will be 29 megacities with more than
10 million inhabitants.
In 1900, only 12 cities had more than a million inhabitants. Today,
China alone has more than 50 cities with over a million
inhabitants.
Urban areas will grow by more than 1.5 million
square kilometers by 2030.
UrbanDynamicsImportance
Connectivity
HumanDimensionsDemographics
Lifestyles
Commercial DevelopmentsPhysical and online retail
competition or symbiosis
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Urban Dynamics: ImportanceUrban Environments Set Commercial Framework
“On average, the bigger the city, the
more efficient its use of infrastructure,
leading to important savings in materials,
energy and emissions".
“Urban metabolism" has superlinear-
scaling properties.
Lack of planning’s congestion, housing shortages, pollution have rendered some region's major cities economic problem areas.
Large cities are also developing large areas of destitution.
"By almost any measure, the larger a city's population, the greater the innovation and
wealth creation per person" Congregating of people facilitates the sharing
and advancing of knowledge.
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Urban Dynamics: Connectivity Urban Centers Are Connecting
City growth does not occur in isolation: Major global
centers are influencing and affecting each other.
In the past, migration was viewed as a zero-sum game, a situation in which one country's gain is another country's loss.
This view is changing for many reasons.
Migration establishes networks among people, and those networks have important economic and
social implications globally.
The number of migrants scattered around the
globe has grown by 40% in the past two decades.
Today, 215 million people are considered
migrants.
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Urban Dynamics: ConnectivityUrban Centers Become Networks
An interconnected web of infrastructures has tremendous economic potential and features
opportunities that will ripple through industries.
“The increasing deployment of sensors and hand-held electronics
in recent years is allowing a new approach to the study of the built
environment”
Living PlanIT, Cisco Systems, Deutsche Telekom create an operating system (OS) for entire urban environments.New Songdo City in South Korea and Masdar in the United Arab Emirates are experiments in smart cities.
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Urban Dynamics: ConnectivityMultiple Networks & Approaches Converge
Municipal governments leverage social media to provide services.
"The ingredients for a successful startup and a successful city are remarkably similar.”
A wide range of infrastructure pockets—connecting objects and physical-world events—are emerging: the Internet of Things:
Proliferation of connected productsEmerging application pockets (wireless parking
meters, connected homes)Completely new concepts (wireless health care, a
World Wide Web for robots)
To enable the effective and efficient navigation of urban environments, companies need to
focus on all aspects of urban environments and old concepts are unlikely to be successful.
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Human Dimensions: DemographicsSocieties Are Aging and Polarizing
The world population will continued to grow until 2100, to level out at slightly more than
10 billion people. Most of the world's nations now have demographics similar to
those of the industrialized nations, characterized by a low
birth rate and an aging population. The only area that
does not yet follow this trend is Africa.
Between 2000 and 2050 the portion of people 65 years of age and older will more than
double in Japan and more than triple in China, India, and
Indonesia.
Substantial shifts in the strength and distribution of the middle class are
occurring globally.Most countries see shrinking middle classes, except for, again, regions in
Africa
Demographic changes are glacial, but their impact is substantial almost by definition.
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Human Dimensions: Personal LifestylesFamilies Are Transforming
Families are increasingly embracing a collection of professional, communal, and individual activities—a new, looser arrangement, in which members pursue individual goals separate from or unrelated to those of the family.
The nuclear family is only one of many alternatives.Increasing number of multigenerational households in some regions.Technologies also change family structures and household definitions, bringing far-flung members together and isolating individuals.
Redefinition of family meaning, structural household transformations, and changing
member relationships affect markets.
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Human Dimensions: Professional LifestylesWorkplaces Become Fluid and Uncertain
Companies in various industries have started to adopt contract-
and freelance work models.
Relentless improvements in computing technology are now threatening traditionally secure middle-class jobs.
“We have hit an inflection point at which technology destroys jobs faster than it creates them."
Increasing specialization and division of labor has a substantial impact on workforce
dynamics and team management.
“The next decade or two will be defined more by fluidity than by any new, settled paradigm.... [Generation Flux
has] a mind-set that embraces instability, that tolerates—and even enjoys—recalibrating careers,
business models, and assumptions”
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Commercial Developments: Physical Retail Consumers Crave Frictionless Transactions
Telecommunications providers, handheld manufacturers, financial institutions, and startups all try to establish a new mobile-digital-payment form.
Friction in the shopping experience can discourage consumers from becoming customers and put off existing customers.
Even low-price retailers benefit by more, well-paid employees.Shoppers reduce shopping trips and stay local to save time.
"Many outsized outlets now look like dinosaurs in an age when
Amazon.com's offerings dwarf even the most bountiful in-store selection.” Small and local retail stores
allow intersecting more frequently with consumers'
personal and professional life.
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Commercial Developments: CompetitionOnline-Offline Tug of War Is Intense
Online retail has always been competition for brick-and-mortar retail; now explicit strategies follow words.
Consumers now use stores for recommendations and the web for purchases.
Physical Stores charge consulting fees that get refunded upon purchase.
Apps redirect consumers from brick-and-mortar stores to online stores.
Reviews and ratings sites have become vital for marketing, but feature arbitrariness, biases, and plain fraudulent use.
The sites can level the playing field between global chains and local outlets.
"What appears to be a wise crowd is just an oligarchy of the enthusiastic”
Businesses bribe consumers to write positive reviews.
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Commercial Developments: Retail SymbiosisOnline and Offline Concepts Are Merging
Symbiotic and reinforcing relationships exist between virtual and physical worlds.
Start-ups offer foot-traffic-analytics solutions similar to online analytics solutions.
Analysis of facial features is providing ever more detailed information on demographics, emotions, and intentions.
Virtual environments find
use in physical stores and
advanced online apps allow judging
experiential products in cyberspace.
Social-networking types of
applications are slowly creeping
into the real world.
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Signals of Change and Patterns Used in this Presentation
SoC590, “The New Employment Model”SoC584, “Local Governments Embrace Social Media”SoC583, “Reviewing Ratings”SoC579, “Strategic Complexities and Adaptability”SoC561, “Urban Connectivity”SoC559, “Migration's Beneficiaries”SoC556, “Urban Economic Forces”SoC551, “Navigating Urban Futures”SoC535, “International Middle-Class Shifts”SoC531, “Global Demographic Changes, Global Challenges”SoC507, “Novel Retail Payment and Charging Approaches”SoC502, “Best of Both Worlds: Virtuality in Retail”SoC499, “Retro Retail: Small and Local”SoC490, “Family Definition(s)SoC489, “A Different Kind of 'Internet of Things'”SoC441, “Family and Work Merge”P0352, “Frictionless Business Models”P0314, “Open Conflict: Online Retail versus Offline Retail”P0306, “Machines versus Human Resources”P0290, “Retail-Store Analytics”P0274, "Hyperspecialization and Teams”
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About SBI
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SBI is the former Business Intelligence division of SRI International; we have worked with clients on opportunities and change since 1958. Headquartered in Silicon Valley—with offices in Europe and Japan and on the U.S. East Coast—we have a global reach and work across a wide range of government and business sectors, including electronics, health care, energy, and financial services.
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