Future trends in mobility: challenges for transport ... Future trends in mobility: challenges for...

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Transcript of Future trends in mobility: challenges for transport ... Future trends in mobility: challenges for...

  • This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020

    research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 640401.

    Author(s): Laurent Franckx, VITO

    Contributor(s): Inge Mayeres, VITO

    Project: MIND-sets | www.mind-sets.eu

    Grant Agreement N°: 640401

    Project duration: 01.12.14 – 30.11.17

    Project Coordinator:

    Silvia Gaggi, ISIS

    T: 0039 063 212 655 F: 0039 063 213 049 E: sgaggi@isis-it.com

    Future trends in mobility: challenges for

    transport planning tools and related decision-

    making on mobility product and service

    development

    Deliverable no. 3.3 Date: 13/07/2015 Version: 1.1

  • Deliverable 3.3 / version 1.1.

    This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation Programme under grant agreement No 640401. Page 2

    Contents

    Preface .......................................................................................................................................................... 4

    Chapter 1: The rise of the sharing economy: implications for transport ................................................ 5

    1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 6

    2. Carsharing ................................................................................................................................................ 7

    2.1. Definitions ......................................................................................................................................................... 7

    2.2. Key advantages and drawbacks ...................................................................................................................... 7

    2.3. A (very short) history of carsharing .................................................................................................................. 7

    2.4. Business models in carsharing ........................................................................................................................ 9

    2.5. Characteristics of the demand side .............................................................................................................. 10

    2.6. The B2B market .............................................................................................................................................. 11

    2.7. Assessing the impacts ................................................................................................................................... 11

    2.8. Shared electric mobility (and other alternative fuels) .................................................................................. 13

    2.9. Organisational and institutional issues ......................................................................................................... 14

    3. Scooter sharing ..................................................................................................................................... 15

    4. Bicycle sharing ...................................................................................................................................... 16

    5. On--demand ride services .................................................................................................................... 19

    5.1 The traditional taxi market ............................................................................................................................. 19

    5.2 Ridesourcing / Transportation Network Company (TNC) Services .............................................................. 20

    5.3 Impacts ........................................................................................................................................................... 21

    6. Ridesharing ........................................................................................................................................... 25

    7. Alternative transit services ................................................................................................................... 27

    7.1 Demand Responsive Transit (DRT)................................................................................................................ 27

    7.2 Impacts ........................................................................................................................................................... 29

    8. Courier network services ...................................................................................................................... 31

    9. Trip planning apps ................................................................................................................................ 32

    9.1 Definitions ....................................................................................................................................................... 32

    9.2 Advantages ..................................................................................................................................................... 32

    9.3 Challenges and emerging services ................................................................................................................ 33

    9.4 Mobility as a Service ...................................................................................................................................... 33

  • Deliverable 3.3 / version 1.1.

    This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation Programme under grant agreement No 640401. Page 3

    Chapter 2: Automated mobility ........................................................................................................... 34

    10. Definitions, history and current status .............................................................................................. 35

    11. Potential impacts ................................................................................................................................ 36

    11.1 Long term outlook .......................................................................................................................................... 37

    11.2 Synergies with shared mobility ...................................................................................................................... 37

    11.3 Synergies with electric mobility ..................................................................................................................... 38

    Chapter 3: Policy implications ............................................................................................................. 40

    12. Implications for transport modelling research ................................................................................. 41

    12.1 Growth potential ............................................................................................................................................. 41

    12.2 Valuation of time ............................................................................................................................................ 41

    12.3 Modelling of parking ....................................................................................................................................... 42

    12.4 What is a “travel mode”? ............................................................................................................................... 42

    12.5 Impacts on road capacity ............................................................................................................................... 42

    12.6 Reactions from other economic actors ......................................................................................................... 42

    12.7 Impact on the built environment ................................................................................................................... 43

    12.8 Ownership versus sharing .............................................................................................................................. 43

    12.9 The importance of stated preferences .......................................................................................................... 43

    13. Implications for transportation demand management .................................................................... 44

    13.1 Shared mobility as complement or substitute .............................................................................................. 44

    13.2 The regulation of on-demand ride services .................................................................................................. 45

    13.3 Alternative powertrains .................................................................................................................................. 45

    13.4 Pricing policies ................................................................................................................................................ 46

    13.5 Public transit ................................................................................................................................................... 47

    13.6 Accessibility ...........................................................................................................................................