Future Tanzania Vigorous Trade Partner or

Dependent Museum?

Presentation at SIANE Seminar 10th November 2010Pär Oscarsson, Consultant African Opportunitiespar@afropp.se

Vision for Africa• Problem or

Opportunities? • Causes or Symptom? • Climate Change• Food Security• Deforestation• Population Growth• Urban Migration• Land Security

• Lord Nicholas Stern: • "We will not overcome

world poverty unless we manage climate change successfully. I've spent my life as a development economist, and it's crystal clear that we succeed or fail on winning the battle against world poverty and managing climate change together. If we fail on one, we fail on the other."

Decca Aitkenhead interview with Nicholas Stern, The Guardian Monday 30 March 2009

USE OR LOOSE!

From Un-Sustainable To Sustainable

VISION 2025TODAY FUTURE?

Can this change be done without conflicts or compromises?

• ‘Stakeholders in agriculture envisage an agricultural sector that is modernised, commercial, highly productive and profitable, utilises natural resources in an overall sustainable manner and acts as an

• effective basis for inter-sectoral linkages by the year 2025.’

• Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives (2009)

Why are Investors looking for land?

Challenges for Agric. Growth

• Poor infrastructure

• Lack of access to finance

• Difficulties securing land

• Limited market access and economies of scale

• Taxes and export barriers

(From SAGCOT Concept Note 2010)Investors and Finance Institutions want Secure Production or Supply to minimise risk. Secure access to land reduces risk

LAND in Tanzania

• General Lands (>99 years leasehold – 98 years through TIC)

• Village Lands (in process of being formalised - certificates)

• Reserved Lands

Village Land Process for Investments - Actors

• President - Government - TIC

• Village

• Investor

Three Steps in Land Process

1. Investor registered and approved at National Level

2. Village meetings , demarcation, maps, approval

3. Formal process, valuation, compensation, Letter of Offer, Derivative Rights from TIC

A Village Government

Democratic Process

• Do “we” in the west treat Tanzanians as grown ups?

• Can we trust them to make their own decisions?

• Do we respect the desperate need for more productive use of land and higher incomes?

TECHNICAL

Village Land Process

CHALLENGES

MAPS:

Old maps, few villages surveyed

Reserved areas not well demarcated

CLIMATE DATA

Scattered Records and Data

WATER DATA

Old data

SOIL MAP

Very rough – not useful for investments

BIOMASS – N/ALand Use PlanningParticipatory, of high democratic value but of little value for investment purposes

Village Land Process

ADMINISTRATIVE CHALLENGES

•Poor motivation among staff causes delays

•Media debate makes staff insecure in their roles

•Very few examples of successful processes

•Still strong anti-investor feelings among many decision makers

•No fixed maximum time for a process

•Lack of experienced valuators for valuation and high expectation on value for land

TODAY

• Favours very large investors, difficult for small/medium

• Few Players and many Referees who wants a say in the land process

Way Forward

• Strong need for more active Players

• PPP models to be developed

• Soil, biomass etc studies for investment decisions

• Focus on development corridors or clusters (i.e.SAGCOT)

Way Forward

• Roles and Responsibilities to be agreed

• Who takes care of local problems such as charcoal makers, pastoralists etc?

• What and how can other actors contribute positively to the process?

• Agree on the need for investments and how to relate to local farmers

TIC data indicate that Tanzania attracted $744 million of foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in 2008, out which, only 11 per cent of it went to agriculture. (The Citizen 6/9 2010)

PPP - models

• Many opportunities for collaboration

• All have to pull in the same direction

• Land remains owned by villages

• Strong legally binding contractual arrangements that satisfy finance inst.

• Strong Management Support for production security

Example – Block Farm

A block farm is a continuous, integrated farming area operated under shared ownership, by professional management. The approach will:

• Facilitate effective, professional management of block farm area;• Make it easier to attract & manage commercial financing and donor

support for capacity development & other services;• Make it easier to construct grid roads and drainage infrastructure. Good

drainage infrastructure eliminates water logging. Good roads act as fire breaks reducing incidences accidental fire;

• Enable effective provision of extension services for better cane husbandry;• Enable efficient and accurate application of fertilizers and herbicides;• Ensure the harvesting of cane of uniform maturity;• Result in better cost-effectiveness/profitability due to economies of scale.

WELCOMEfrom Aid to Trade!

Future Tanzania

Vigorous Trade Partner of Dependent Museum?